Big Data

New data reveals early voting trends in key swing states

As the presidential race enters its penultimate week, passionate early voters are hitting the polls. Big data firm L2 Political analyzed election trends from the most important swing states.

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Image: L2 Political

Early voting data from returned ballots suggests that the presidential race is tight in high-stakes swing states.

Data was acquired and shared with TechRepublic by political data firm L2 Political, a company that aggregates large sets of voter information. L2's platform allows political and business clients to access, sort, and download over 265 million consumer records and is widely used by Republican, Democratic, and independent campaigns. The tool is built with the Bing API and HaystaqDNA and displays personal information like home address, employment history, estimated income, partisan affiliation, and voting history.

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The campaign with the best get-out-the-vote strategy—registering new voters and driving voters to the polls on election day—is likely to win, in both local and national races. According to L2 data, nearly 9 million people have registered to vote since November 4th, 2015. 38 percent of new registrants are nonpartisan, 37 percent Democrat, and 21 percent Republican.

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L2 gathers data in real-time and began collecting ballot details in September, as early-voting began in swing and battleground states. Today the company shared new information about voting trends in those states. Early voting trends are not representative samples of the electorate. Instead, they are a reflection of the most engaged voters. In this cycle, data indicates Democrats, Republicans, undecideds, and independents are fired up.

The race is indeed tightening. Though Democrats retain a small advantage in states like Wisconsin, Republicans have a slight advantage in Florida. Nevada is a surprise swing state in this election, and a priority for the Clinton campaign. The Democrat nominee leads by nearly 7 points with early voters in Clark County, Nevada, the Las Vegas metro area.

Below are percentages of early returned ballots as of October 25th, 2016 in swing states.

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Wisconsin

  • 189,824 voters
  • Likely Democratic 45.2% // Likely Republican 37.8% // Likely Independent 16.8%
  • Gender: 57.3% F // 41.7% M
  • 78% White // 3.5% African American // 1.8% HIspanic
  • Age: 41.1% 50-69 // 37.7% 70+ // 2.5% 18-29
datanorthcarolina.png

North Carolina

  • 620,168 voters
  • Democrat 47.8% // Republican 28.0% // Nonpartisan 23.9%
  • Gender: 56.1% F // 43.8% M
  • 66.3% White // 24.5% African American // 2.5% Hispanic
  • Age: 46.0% 50-69 // 25.7% 70+ // 12.3% 40-49
dataflorida.png

Florida

  • 960,612 voters
  • Republican 41.6% // Democrat 40.2% // 15.4% Nonpartisan
  • Gender: 56% F // 43.9% M
  • 67.6% White // 14.8% Hispanic // 7.8% African American
  • Age: 43.1% 70+ // 40.2% 50-69 // 7.3% 40-49
dataiowa.png

Iowa

  • 299,353 voters
  • Republican 33.4% // Democrat 46.6% // Nonpartisan 19.6%
  • Gender: 56.9% F // 43.0% M
  • 83.8% White // 2.0% Hispanic // 1.0% African American
  • Age: 33.8% 70+ // 43.0% 50-69 // 8.1% 40-49 // 7.8% 18-29
datacolorado.png

Colorado

  • 290,216 voters
  • Republican 34.0% // Democrat 40.5% // Nonpartisan 24.0%
  • Gender: 50.5% F // 49.4% M
  • 78.0% White // 7.7% Hispanic // 1.3% African American
  • Age: 27.3% 70+ // 45.5% 50-69 // 11.9% 40-49 // 5.8% 18-29
datageorgia.png

Georgia

  • 635,666 voters
  • Republican 45.5% // Democrat 38.4% // Nonpartisan 16.0%
  • Gender: 56.7% F // 43.2% M
  • 60.4% White // 30.5% African American // 2.1% Hispanic
  • Age: 26.6% 70+ // 47.4% 50-69 // 12.8% 40-49 // 6.0% 18-29
datamaine.png

Maine

  • 137,872 voters
  • Republican 25.9% // Democrat 43.7% // 27.3% Nonpartisan
  • Gender: 56.1% F // 43.2% M
  • 89.5% White // 1.2% Hispanic // .17% African American
  • Age: 30.6% 70+ // 43.1% 50-69 // 8.9% 40-49 // 9.9% 18-29
datavegas.png

Clark County, Nevada

  • 12,647 voters
  • Republican 36.8% // Democrat 43.6% // Non-partisan 14.3%
  • Gender: 51.8% F // 46.6% M
  • 69.1% White // 9.3% Hispanic // 3.6% African American
  • Age: 52.1% 70+ // 30.7% 50-69 // 5.5% 40-49 // 5.8% 18-29

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Note: Data and maps by L2 Political.

About Dan Patterson

Dan is a Senior Writer for TechRepublic. He covers cybersecurity and the intersection of technology, politics and government.

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