Apple and Android tablets will make significant inroads into enterprise this year while sales of Wintel PCs and tablets will remain flat.
Businesses and governments will this year spend almost 20 per cent more on Apple iPads than last year, and step up spending on Linux PCs and Android tablets by 44 per cent, according to the Forrester report Global Tech Market Outlook 2013 To 2014.
In comparison the report predicts that - in spite of the business-focused Windows 8 Surface Pro tablet going on sale this month - there will be no growth in the sales of Wintel PCs and tablets to businesses and government this year.
The trend of double digit growth in sales of Wintel competitors will continue in 2014, with 14 per cent year-on-year growth in sales of iPads to businesses and governments and 17 per cent in sales of Linux PCs and Android tablets, compared to a eight per cent rise in Wintel PC and tablets sales.
"Unless the vendor's name is Apple or perhaps Lenovo, the computer equipment market will still
struggle in 2013, with no better growth in sight until 2014," the report says, estimating that Apple will sell $7bn worth of Macs and $11bn of iPads to the corporate market in 2013 and $8bn-worth of Macs and $13bn-worth of iPads in 2014.
However overall sales of Wintel PCs and tablets to business and government will continue to dwarf the competition, with Wintel sales accounting for $124bn of the sectors' $151bn total PC spend in 2013 and $134bn of the $164bn overall spend in 2014.
Global growth in sales of computer equipment will remain weak this year, with a rise of just 2.1 per cent
in 2013 after 1.2 per cent in 2012, as CIOs shift hardware spending to infrastructure-as-a-service
alternatives and postpone capital investments wherever they can.
Overall global spending on IT products and services will hit $2.09tr in 2013 up by just 3.3 per cent - significantly below the five to 10 per cent growth rate demonstrated by the IT industry historically, Forrester predicts.
Software sales - in particular software as a service (SaaS) - will be the main driver for IT spending growth over the next two years. Sales of software will hit $542bn this year and account for about one quarter of overall IT product and services spend, the report forecasts. Forrester breaks 2013 global software spend down to $37 on operating systems; $140bn on middleware such as database management systems and security software; $235bn on applications such as desktop, enterprise process and vertical industry apps and $130bn on custom-built apps.
Apps and analytics will demonstrate the fastest growth in the software sector this and next year, with spending up six per cent in 2013 due to a rise combined license, maintenance and SaaS subscription revenues.
Spend on traditional software will be outpaced by growth in SaaS sales, up 25 per cent this year to $59bn. Spend on popular SaaS application categories - such as CRM, human capital management and ePurchasing -will continue to increase but SaaS will start to find use in new areas, such as database management, application integration and business intelligence, the report predicts.
After software the report says the next largest area of IT spending in 2013 will be on computer equipment at $416bn, then $404bn on IT consulting and systems integration services - split two thirds in favour of systems integration work - $399bn on computer hardware support services and $328bn on communications equipment.
Nick Heath is chief reporter for TechRepublic UK. He writes about the technology that IT-decision makers need to know about, and the latest happenings in the European tech scene.