Collaboration

Will the Internet hit full capacity by 2010?

Jim Cicconi, the vice president of legislative affairs at AT&T claims that the Internet's current network architecture "will reach the limits of its capacity by 2010" if no additional investments are made.

Jim Cicconi, the vice president of legislative affairs at AT&T, claims that the Internet's current network architecture "will reach the limits of its capacity by 2010" if no additional investments are made.

Excerpt from ZDNet News:

Cicconi, who was speaking at the event as part of a wider series of meetings with U.K. government officials, said that at least $55 billion worth of investment was needed in new infrastructure in the next three years in the U.S. alone, with the figure rising to $130 billion to improve the network worldwide. "We are going to be butting up against the physical capacity of the Internet by 2010," he said.

The crux of the issue appears to be the proliferation of broadband connections that will drive an "unprecedented wave of broadband traffic." Topping the chart would be demand for high-definition video putting increasing strain on the Internet's infrastructure.

Now, this is not the first time that such a topic has been brought up. What cannot be denied however, is that the face of the Internet is constantly evolving. Now, I recently reported on a survey showing that the majority of SMBs have more than one business location.

The question I want to pose is whether your company utilizes the Internet for communication between various business branches. Will any deteriorating in access speed have adverse effect?

About

Paul Mah is a writer and blogger who lives in Singapore, where he has worked for a number of years in various capacities within the IT industry. Paul enjoys tinkering with tech gadgets, smartphones, and networking devices.

21 comments
warren
warren

wasn't this the reason that IPv6 was created to extend the life of the net but than again its only a matter of time until IPv6 runs out and than IPv8 10 or even 12 will be made

Jaqui
Jaqui

on December 21 2012 according to five or six well known oracles. [ the Roman Oracle the Sybil, the Bible's book of Revelations, The Mayan Calendar doesn't extend beyond that Date, Merlin, the I-Ching. ] We'll ignore the web bot projects predictions, even though it predicted 9-11 accurately. We'll ignore the lesser known oracles that all pick the 21st century as the end of the earth. it's only fitting that our creations die before us. ]:) [ gonna nuke me a Hal 9000 if it doesn't come in for repairs ]

cweinsch
cweinsch

I can't count the times in my life--technology and in other areas--in which dire predictions were made about something significantly in the future. Anyone remember the killer bees? The idea that it will max out "if no additional investments are made" means little. One way or another, more investment obviously will be made.

paulmah
paulmah

The question I want to pose is whether your company utilizes the Internet for communication between various business branches. Will any deteriorating in access speed have adverse effect?

vsmith3rd
vsmith3rd

With IPv6, addresses won't run out in our lifetime. With all the subnetting to extend capabilities, it just won't happen, not even close.

seanferd
seanferd

but you're right. Eventually, everyone will own multiple IP addressed devices, and world population will stabilize at what number?

seanferd
seanferd

I personally still believe that the world ended with Y2K and we just haven't stopped moving yet.

seanferd
seanferd

Of course, if AT&T itself wasn't pushing everything and anything down the Internet pipes, it wouldn't be such a problem, would it? At some point, I think that the world needs to decide what the Internet isn't for, or all the communications and entertainment industries need to pay for infrastructure like they did when telecommunications started.

linuxkg100
linuxkg100

What even happen to Internet 2.0 - did they Net Neutralize it to? hmmm, there goes the cyber space. :)

myndmelt
myndmelt

It's all the Iphones fault! :P

boxfiddler
boxfiddler

More than likely a quite small - mayhap miniscule - number as we are not likely to stop breeding beyond our capacity to sustain ourselves. Some [near] future, possibly completely unforeseen catastrophe will take us out and only a small remnant of the human race will remain. There may or may not be edibles and potables left after the catastrophe, ergo the remnant may or may not live to breed and begin the vicious cycle yet again. I am practicing my doomsaying. If it is not yet suitably alarmist, please let me know. ;)

pmjm
pmjm

Its like a free health service - the demand will overwhelm the supply sooner or later resulting in some form of rationing. Basically a new business model is needed where pay per use is enforced and ISP's are already doing it with their ''fair'' use policy - or unfair use if you are biased...expect more payment plans and more expensive internet access charges. charging a tiny ammount per email would help reduce spam.

DanLM
DanLM

boards, advertisement board, junk mail, personal mail, buisness mail,telephone, .... Of days gone past. It has become the common method of all those seperate entities. Id say we are screwed, but I actaully don't think that... I just think its scary, but eh... So is my driving... And I enjoy that also. ;o) Dan

seanferd
seanferd

That's connecting universities and such. Not for general consumption. Then there's the National Lambda Rail...

seanferd
seanferd

World population will stabilize at what number within current or similar technological and market conditions? (Assuming most all people will purchase, be given, or be implanted with, some number of internet-connected devices greater than 1. Eventually, the human population will stabilize at zero, for one reason or another. Be as alarmist as you wanna be. :)

seanferd
seanferd

And, just like the corollary to Moore's Law says (the name of which I forget), network technology gets faster, better, cheaper all of the time. Except for the customer.

The 'G-Man.'
The 'G-Man.'

Tax and NI would suggest it is not 'free'.

DanLM
DanLM

But with both parties enjoying the taxation of the middle income, we won't be middle income anymore. Sorry, just strike what I just said.. I don't have anything you listed off. (big house, suv, 5 * travel). Dan

pmjm
pmjm

unfortunately Dan the golden age of freedom and equality for all that started in the 1950's has now gone pop. If you are rich you can enjoy 5* travel, driving SUV's and a big house with unlimited internet. If you're not- tough; welcome to scumbag class with rest of us IT guys....the food riots will follow...