In 2006, 29-year-old Kevin Rose was really big stuff. The founder of Digg was running one of the biggest social media companies in the world, until Facebook came along. While Digg still puffs along with a small staff, and is still in the Internet's Top 200 sites, Rose, who has invested in Facebook, Gowalla, and a number of other social web companies, stepped down as interim CEO in 2010. He left in March 2011 to found Milk, and app-development shop that was quasi-acquired by Google on March 16, where they will ostensibly join the Google Plus team. (Digg actually discussed a $200M sale to Google in 2008, but Google backed out.)
When I saw this news, I immediately thought, "Wow, this is the beginning of the end for Google+."
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You may think I'm a little nuts talking about the beginning of the end of Google Plus, especially when I've completed a Lynda.com course on Google+, and numerous big-kahuna social media types like my friend Chris Brogan - who's a pretty smart guy - have written entire books about it.
Here's why I think Google's high-priority social network is failing, fast.
Average Minutes of Use
Google's VP of Engineering Vic Gundrota (effectively the "CEO of Google+"), responded by saying, "Not only is Google Plus not a ghost town, we have never seen anything grow this fast. Ever."
And so the New York Times jumped into the fray, digging deeper into Gundrota's metrics. Google shared a stat stating that 50 million of the people who created a Google+ account actively use their Google+ enhanced products daily, and that over 100 million people have signed up for the product.
The problem with Google's stats is that they don't indicate that "enhanced products" includes Google.com and YouTube, the #1 and #3 sites on the Internet. (#2, unsurprisingly, is Facebook).
"Realistically, the debate over how many people use Google Plus, how many real users it has seems almost irrelevant. Google is determined to make Google Plus work at all costs, even in the face of naysayers," said Nick Bilton, who wrote the NY Times blog post on Google+.
Google's take on their speed of growth is becoming essentially irrelevant at this point, regardless of what Gundrota says or what Google's executive team believes. Google's recent quasi-acquisition of Kevin Rose's Milk team seems like a last-ditch effort to bring some proven social web talent to the Google+ team, which is admirable, but ultimately doomed.
Google is a fish out of water - they're a great search and advertising company that is simply not good at making social media products used by consumers (or even B2B collaboration). Now's the time to shutter Google+, and consign it to the dust-heap where many of their other social products lie (Jaiku, Google Buzz, and Google Wave to name a few), and allocate all that Google+ talent to doing what the company does best - selling a ton of advertising in a way that really resonates with its customers.
Adam Metz is the VP of Business Development at Metz Consulting the social concept, a social customer management-consulting firm, based in Oakland, California. Metz has consulted with companies since 2006 on how to acquire, manage, monetize and retain customers from the social web. Metz's customer community, at http://metz.customerhub.net has nearly 500 members, and offers a no-cost 9-hour training course on social customer relationship management.Metz's second book, The Social Customer, was released on 9/16/11 and has hit #1 on the Amazon marketing charts. Adam's first book, There Is No Secret Sauce, has sold or downloaded over 3000 copies, and is currently in its third printing. He has additionally published an eBook, The Metz Way.Metz specializes in social media marketing and social customer relationship management (social CRM) for awesome consumer brands and loves lifestyle, travel, apparel and consumer-packaged goods (CPG) companies.Metz has consulted with nearly 100 consumer and B2B companies, including Hershey's Chocolate, Waggin' Train Pet Food, Wente Vineyards (top 30 winery) Pirate's Booty, MBT Shoes, Maestroconference, Obama Girl (Barely Political), Lynda.com, Passport Resorts, Hollywood Park Racetrack, The San Francisco Convention and Visitor's Bureau, Mighty Leaf Tea, Timbuk2 bags, and dozens of others. Adam Metz also worked on the first social media program for Pulitzer-Prize winning author Thomas Friedman.Metz has lectured at the University of California, Berkeley, the University of Washington, and University of California, Santa Cruz and has given keynote talks at numerous conferences and associations including the California and Minnesota Chapters of the American Marketing Association, the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, the Western Association of Convention & Visitors Bureau Technology Conference, and the Hospitality Sales & Marketing Association.Metz lives in Oakland, California with his fiancee Susan.