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Top 10 trends that will transform mobile between now and 2015

Gartner analyst Nick Jones laid out his top 10 mobile and wireless technologies to watch over the next four years. Read it and get our take.

Gartner loves its trends and users love lists as a quick way to scan and absorb important information, so Gartner analyst Nick Jones gave into requests from IT leaders and put together a list of his top 10 mobile and wireless technologies to watch over the next four years. He showed the list to attendees during his mobile state of the union presentation at Gartner Symposium 2011 this week.

Here's what Nick had:

  1. HTML5
  2. NFC and "touch to act" applications such as payment
  3. Platform independent AD tools
  4. Location and context -- indoor and outdoor
  5. Bluetooth 4
  6. 802.11ac
  7. M2M -- cellular and Wi-Fi
  8. Augmented reality
  9. Multiplatform MDM
  10. LTE

He put HTML5 at the top because he stated, "By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently such that half of the applications that in 2011 would be written as native apps will be, instead, delivered as Web apps."

The other three themes of Nick's list are machine-to-machine (M2M, or the "Internet of things"), location-based tools, and more robust wireless connectivity. In terms of the wireless issue, here's a chart from his presentation that maps out what's coming, when, and how fast it is:

Sanity check

The two big things that I think are missing from this top ten are 1.) the advent of business-centric app stores, and 2.) mobile data security technologies. Both of those trends will be driven by the consumerization of IT and the fact that more an more IT departments will embrace the concept of employees bringing their own devices into the enterprise. In order to allow that but still maintain corporate standards and data security, companies will need to give employees access to business apps that they can use on their devices and implement technologies that can protect sensitive corporate data when it's being viewed, created, and manipulated on devices that the company does not control.

About

Jason Hiner is Editor in Chief of TechRepublic and Long Form Editor of ZDNet. He writes about the people, products, and ideas changing how we live and work in the 21st century. He's co-author of the upcoming book, Follow the Geeks (bit.ly/ftgeeks).

9 comments
gkellerman7
gkellerman7

I think your theoretical thought about data sec & organizations buying into cloud or even in-house serverhosted apps is right on. I cant agree more In fact maybe sooner than we think! Gabrielle kellerman Information Sys Sec. BA student

deadlycreature
deadlycreature

While media loves to push HTML5 (for all the wrong reasons), it's not letting out the ugly truth (at least the way I see it). HTML5 is the basically means the browser was all over again, but on a new front. The experience (UX) will vary from browser to browser even years from now. So while it's defiantly a much needed improvement for the web, it's not the silver bullet everyone is touting it to be. There will always be some bending of the standards that everyone is suppose to adhering to (here we go again). Really, web development is often much more than just a video tag and some JavaScript. That said; I wouldn't be surprised if there is a renaissance for Flash, Flex and of course Silverlight in the next few years. Anyone of these micro-platforms offer a cohesive UX across pretty much all browsers. It???s a ridiculous notion blaming a plug-in for bad programming. It???s even more ludicrous blaming the plug-in for the OS???s inability to deal with it. Maybe that???s the real crux of the issue; how do we mange bad web development? I don???t see HTML5 stopping that. =;???D The bottom line; I???m not saying HTML5 is not needed, but I???m not seeing HTML5 as the end game. Sorry for the rant. Just my humble opinion, I could be wrong. Cheers.

rhonin
rhonin

While I may not be fluent on all the proposed trends, one trend that needs/should continue is patents. Without continuing progress in his area, you may as well say 2020 instead of 2015.

cscruggs101
cscruggs101

Great article! This is a well-rounded top 10 list and I agree with Mr. Hiner. Applying these trends to business, where many companies are supporting employees bringing their own devices, adopting mobile device management, location tracking, and policy enforcement will be critical to ensure corporate standards and data security. Managing mobile assets has been a growing concern for many of our customers so we recenly extended our asset tracking portfolio to include MDM. http://www.numarasoftware.com/news/2011/mobile-device-management.aspx

mremillard
mremillard

Another missing trend is Wireless Health, so I'm wondering if Gartner thinks that all the issues with payments, etc will not make it a trend... Given how much money Qualcomm is investing in it, plus with Continua driving the standardization, I would think this would make the list before Augmented Reality, which I am not too certain about. As far as M2M, there are far more other standards to look out for, including Zigby, as well as deeper developments in the data analytics for M2M.

mwclarke1
mwclarke1

death to flash, I hope soon !

deadlycreature
deadlycreature

It's bandwagon, groundless (perhaps juvenile) comments that give even more endorsement to my opening statement. Thanks for making my point even clearer! =:??D

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