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IT pros expect cloud to overtake "on-premise" computing by 2015

According to a survey of IT professionals worldwide, cloud computing will "overtaking on-premise computing by 2015 as the primary way organizations acquire IT."

According to a survey of 2,000 IT professionals worldwide, cloud computing will "overtaking on-premise computing by 2015 as the primary way organizations acquire IT." IBM developerWorks, conducted the 2010 IBM Tech Trends Survey in August and September 2010 and published the results in early October.

As the following chart illustrates, more than 65 percent expect that the cloud will likely, most likely, or definitely overtake on-premise computing as the way organizations acquire IT by 2015. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2 percent.

For more results from the survey, including a look at mobile application development, check out the article, New developerWorks survey shows dominance of cloud computing and mobile application development, written by Michael O'Connell, developerWorks Editor-in-chief.

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Bill Detwiler is Managing Editor of TechRepublic and Tech Pro Research and the host of Cracking Open, CNET and TechRepublic's popular online show. Prior to joining TechRepublic in 2000, Bill was an IT manager, database administrator, and desktop supp...

18 comments
nnmck
nnmck

Large companies/enterprises may develop their own clouds. Many are creating their own server data centers. The on-site servers will likely be minimal and specifically used for programs that are site specific. The local area's consumer needs will probably be handled in this manner. However, an enterprise also will want to standardize software as much as is feasible. This method provides the most cost effective use of hardware. Security is also easier to control. Having participated in an enterprise endeavor to standardize work processes across multiple states and multi-national regions, I believe cloud computing is already here. It took over ten years to build. The next step in the "big plan" is virtualization of end-user desktops. No one desktop is for all users and requires customized access but the hardware savings should outweigh implementation. As I see it, IT will also go more virtual using secure tunneling and remote access to perform their jobs; whether it be from their home office (more green computing) or an on-site office (for the hardware). I am at a meeting this week, which is eight hours from my office and on my iPhone taking care of mail. Later on I can work from here on my netbook via a secure portal and not miss a thing. Our corporate, regional, and local meetings are all virtual. I must admit it makes taking a vacation challenging though!

Dknopp
Dknopp

about web servers. "All web servers will be hosted on server farms and people will just have them host their web pages" Most of those web hosting companies are out of business

jfreedle2
jfreedle2

I feel sorry for anybody that is forced to downgrade to any cloud based junkware. The productivity would almost come to a stop and the experience would totally suck. There are perfect uses for the web, to host web pages that attempt to be real applications is not one of them. I will NEVER downgrade from applications installed on my computer to the any web page.

AV .
AV .

Maybe for huge global corporations it makes sense, but in smaller IT shops, I just don't see it, except for non-critical applications. Cloud computing is not that cheap and the security issues surrounding it are a major problem. Read this chilling article about what happened to American Eagle Outfitters and tell me you're ready to hand your data center over to the cloud. http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9182159/American_Eagle_Outfitters_learns_a_painful_service_provider_lesson AV

Cayble
Cayble

This survey lacks some important info. First off, those responding to the survey, what makes them respond the way they are? Are we looking at peoples most best hopeful guess or are we looking at actual informed responses, based on real on the ground decisions in the works? All this cloud computing talk is lovely but when ever the hopefuls start talking about cloud computing and their notions that its on the verge of taking over we never hear the explanations for how the problems related to cloud computing are going to be resolved so that cloud computing even has a chance of reaching 50%. It always seems too much of the "If we say it often enough it will just happen" philosophy, as opposed to addressing the concerns frequently expressed about cloud computing and how that will get cloud computing to where they propose its going to end up. Over 50% by 2015? Maybe, but not just because thats a prediction, it can only happen if the concerns about cloud computing are fully addressed well before then and as things sit today most of those truly betting on cloud computing seem far more interested in making bald predictions of where cloud computing is heading as opposed to describing how the problems with cloud computing are going to be fixed, and at that rate 2015 is way too soon for over 50%.

neiltre
neiltre

When we were looking to get off of a shared hosting server, our hosting company suggested we go join their cloud system. This came with promises of easy scalability (not something we're too bothered with at the moment) and, most importantly for me, a claimed 100% redundancy on hardware which, I was told, meant zero downtime should something fail. That is unless it's a primary component - a raid array or some such - that meant our site was offline for almost 3 days while theirs and Dell's engineers tried to figure out what to do. Needless to say, we were not impressed. We now have our own managed physical server, regularly backed up, great support and a guaranteed 1 hour hardware replacement. This means that should the server fail, we should be up and running in a matter of hours rather than days. Cloud computing is just that... a fluffy cloud of no substance. But that's just my experience.

dogknees
dogknees

Do they mean that over 50% of all businesses worldwide will be sourcing their IT needs from the cloud? Or that if you total all IT services worldwide, over 50% will be sourced externally? Or, more likely, is it 50% of a certain group of businesses?

caw
caw

I believe that cloud computing will make an entrance into the business world but will not create a paradigm shift in how business is done or how we (the IT guys) support/build/grow our businesses. The truth is, as it has been, that you cannot get away from on premises computing... I mean the cloud is (theoretically) on premises and businesses are slow adopters... culture has to be influenced before it can be changed and as always, the budget conscious non-IT department leaders will have a tough time spending on unproven concepts. I see on-premises and cloud computing working together by 2015... but I dont see on premises computing going anywhere for several decades.

CG IT
CG IT

I think that the cloud providers are optimistic on small/medium businesses willing to pay out a per month per employee fees for IT. $50.00 per month per employee adds up, considering cloud providers don't provide all in one services, but charge by the service

Tony Hopkinson
Tony Hopkinson

I wouldn't be surprised if it takes off as well. Landing safely, that's a different issue. You can always tell how valuable a survey is by the lack of ambiguity in the question, this one isn't worth the photons it's currently emitting on my monitor.

Jhunter72003
Jhunter72003

Just entered the IT job market in the last year..what does this mean for the future network technicians/admins?

blackepyon01
blackepyon01

I much prefer something local that I control and can fix myself. This is critical when something unavoidable happens. For instance: where I live (BC, Canada), all the schools are using a cloud software called BCESIS for recording attendance, grades, student lists and whatnot. Before this, we were using a software called "Maplewood" which was run off a local server (I had no problems with this). We relied on nobody but ourselves. Everything is on that cloud database. When the internet goes down (which happens occasionally, someone hits a power pole or something) we have absolutely nothing but what we have on paper records! To top that off, BCESIS has been slow lately as more schools are going to it and their servers are being overloaded with requests. Long opinion short: "Avoid the cloud! Keep your feet on the ground!"

abear4562
abear4562

I can see cloud computing taking over a niche in the IT market, even a large niche. But there will always be on premises computing for any companies that really take their security seriously. I just dont see anyone taking a huge amount of proprietary company data and putting it on systems which they do not have a positive control over.

pirate?
pirate?

If you answer cloud-based business computing, you are right. Why? Well, just for starters, some one NOT IN YOUR COMPANY decides whether you are a.) allowed to develop a custom app for their stuff, b.) if your app will be allowed to run once developed. HINT: think Apple and the Iphone on steroids.

robert
robert

Do you suppose they will _ever_ get the proper usage of the words "Premises" and "Premise" right? Hint: one has to do with places and property; the other has to do with logical propositions.

Tony Hopkinson
Tony Hopkinson

There'll still be the same sort of percentage of jobs about tommorrow as there were today. Next week, I offer no guarantees. If you were paying attention to the market, you'd have become a plumber or a debt counsellor. :( Unless you were planning a career managing and fixing SBS2008 in small shops acroos teh country I wouldn't worry about it. Still going to be all the infrastructure and control to drive the access points to the cloud, never mind proxies, printers, scanners, PBX, on site redundancy (unless they are totally barking mad. IT never goes away it just changes.

bsit
bsit

It never ceases to make me laugh. All these self professed "experts" and "gurus" keep going on about how things will be, what the future will be. Never have they got it right! Like when they have claimed that everyone has/will have a PC ... Maybe less than a third do. Many people don't even have power, or know what a PC is. Get a grip on reality. These excited little experts just look to the end of their noses, what isn't there mustn't exist it seems. How many PCs are not on the internet, quite a lot. How many know about the cloud, not many in real numbers. Come on get your heads out of your little sand box and have real look around.

dogknees
dogknees

The people that work for the cloud vendors are working in IT! If they move from your businesses IT crew to the providers crew, they are still in IT.

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