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    <title><![CDATA[Discussion on Use PERT technique for more accurate estimates ]]></title>
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        <title><![CDATA[Usage of 4M]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-3432724]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[how is 72 arrived - 6+4M +26/6 ????dont get the same answer...]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-3432724]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[joebailey77]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Wed, 23 Mar 2011 07:36:33 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[RE: Use PERT technique for more accurate estimates]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2613042]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[If you have Software Project Estimation experience as a IT Project Manager or Business Analyst or IT Architect then you can earn money at this site. They are looking for experienced people in software project estimation techniques who can associate with us online. Check out. http://www.econcinnity.com]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2613042]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[animeshmehra@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2008 12:30:35 -0700</pubDate>
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    <item>
        <title><![CDATA[RE: Use PERT technique for more accurate estimates]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2274705]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[It is very useful to clear my understanding]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2274705]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[hareendran_e@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Sun, 08 Jul 2007 22:01:00 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[O&amp;P: turn it around to make a useful tool]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2270707]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[of course in IT O&amp;P are tainted! But turn it around - use the request for O&amp;P to help technicians think about what might go right and what might go wrong.Then help them to explore how to expedite the good and mitigate the bad.And get a better estimate into the bargain!]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2270707]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Johnson]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Tue, 03 Jul 2007 04:07:00 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[Internal business projects vs. engineering]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2269864]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[Can't argue that O&amp;P estimates aren't tainted.  My comment was based on what I've seen reviewing hundreds of projects in large enterprises.  Most engineering projects rigorously estimate as a matter of course.  Internal business projects often rely on educated guesses based on experience.  It's hard enough to get them to document the basis for their estimates, quantitative or qualitative, much less to develop three different estimates and the basis for each as PERT demands.  Chock it up to different schools of thought.  We expect business managers to be strategic, big picture people.PERT can help you come up with a more likely best guess.  My point is that if you aren't going to put the effort into estimating O&amp;P it won't help and may even mislead.]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2269864]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[donstrayer@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Sun, 01 Jul 2007 22:55:36 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[Estimating O&amp;P]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2269426]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[Don,There is a wealth of literature showing the O&amp;P estimates are tainted in most cases. These &quot;cardinal&quot; values are most often uncalibrated.One way out of this in our experience in aerospace and enterprise IT is to us an &quot;ordinal&quot; value scale (ABCDEF) and assign ranges to those values.These too are uncalibrated and need to be fixed before much confidence can be applied.The primary source of this approach is _Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to Success_, 2nd Edition, Edmund Conrow, AIAA Press, 2003. Ed's Appendix H describes &quot;Some Characteristics and Limitations of Ordinal Scales in Risk Analysis.&quot;While neither affordable or accessible (tough reading) Ed's book is mandatory for anyone working the programmatic or technical risk area.]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2269426]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[galleman@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2007 15:22:40 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[Usefull for the people doing the actual estimation. However..]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2269295]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[..In practice it is very tempting for the PM to ignore the P. What we have done in some project was to use the method on an individual basis: each team member evaluates his tasks using the OMP and then only the result of the weigthed average is given to the PM. Also, each member should tailor the weigth according to his own tendency to underestimate or overestimate. In practice I don't think the weigth given in the article are a good starting point. A better starting point for me (in software) would be: (O + 3M + 2P)/6 Team members should keep tab of how well they are doing and keep adjusting the weights to get more accurate estimates.JS]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2269295]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[jslarochelle]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2007 09:06:01 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[So Why Bother with PERT?]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2268354]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[There are certainly more statistically sound estimating techniques but PERT is relatively simple and tends to be better than &quot;best guess&quot;, unless:In a past position, I reviewed numerous projects where the PM obviously gave little thought to O and P and used PERT (a.k.a. 3-point estimating) only because it was required.  Most of their estimates were even distributions such as 4,6,8.Feature-rich PM tools allow you to record not only OMP but supporting data for each estimate, and then generate different views of the schedule.  I used one that even calculated a shift toward P based on sigma (standard deviation)since a wide range of uncertainty tends to make P more likely.But if you aren't going to take the time to consider what could reasonably go wrong (or right) PERT won't help and you aren't prepared to use more sophisticated techniques either.]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2268354]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[donstrayer@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 21:10:25 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[PERT Produces unreliable results]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2268335]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[There is an extensive body of literature describing the serious flaws in the use of PERT, or at least in the &quot;belief&quot; in the PERT numbers.http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/06/pert-analysis-r.html is a short summary of this topic.While the PERT formula may stimulate discussion about the variances in the completion dates or durations of a project, it should not be used without serious consideration of its 20% to 50% unfavorable bias - optimistic bias - on anything but the most trivial activity networks.DID 81650 - the Federal guideline for the construction of the Integrated Master Schedule - requires a schedule risk analysis ?2.4.1.23 using statistical methods. The standard in today?s project management practice is the Monte Carlo Simulation that removes the variances and errors of PERT.]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2268335]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[galleman@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 19:54:28 -0700</pubDate>
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    <item>
        <title><![CDATA[O,P,M is Common Across]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2267209]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[most estimating methods, I know this is one we use quite a bit with delphi estimation.]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2267209]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[daniellgtr@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 17:34:21 -0700</pubDate>
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    <item>
        <title><![CDATA[An easier answer]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2266711]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[Why divide by 6? simply because we are really finding the average of 6 values (most-likely x 4) 1) Optimistic2) Pessimistic3) Most Likely4) Most Likely5) Most Likely6) Most Likely]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2266711]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[ihameed786@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 07:28:19 -0700</pubDate>
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    <item>
        <title><![CDATA[RE: Use PERT technique for more accurate estimates]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2266684]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[This article was very helpful - I am just about to put together an estimate for a small project, but one with a lot of potential variance, since we are dealing with 14 customers at once.]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2266684]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[PonderousMan]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 07:11:01 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[Standard Dev]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2266594]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[That's the method to figure the value for standard deviation for the original values given.  Six samples or evaluation values with one extreme subtracted from the other extreme divided by the total number of observation yields the chi value (value of one standard deviation).]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2266594]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[dtitler@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 05:23:56 -0700</pubDate>
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        <title><![CDATA[Usage of the value 6]]></title>
        <link><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2266567]]></link>
        <description><![CDATA[well written article to get a basic idea of PERT. But I didn't quite understand why was the value 6 used as the divisor to divide the sum of O, P and M]]></description>
        <guid><![CDATA[http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-227762-2266567]]></guid>
        <dc:creator><![CDATA[sharathv99@...]]></dc:creator>
        <pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 05:08:45 -0700</pubDate>
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