Winner is... economics, to a degree
Economics, not geekdom, decides what skills are in demand and are most sought after by employers (supply & demand is esp notable here). That's why a guy/gal with a Masters in computer science might--but might not--make more than the guy who's self-taught & without a college degree.
Having said that, in my experience as a s/w engineer, a degree gives one the necessary theoretical background in addition to a well-roundedness that an IT cert will never provide. IT certs are narrow in scope (for valid reasons), so they don't demonstrate any level of knowledge aside from a) prerequisites required to attain the cert, b) the specific knowledge related to the certification exam, and c) a willingness to seek out certifications pro-actively. Certs do provide evidence of knowledge, don't get me wrong; but they rarely if ever provide evidence of the sort of depth & breadth that college degrees demonstrate.
