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A project being on or off track is also depending on the schedule. Is it a one-point estimate (statistically impossible) then you can be 100% certain that you are in problems even before the project starts. I think it is the PM responsibility to start there first. And then break down the project into smaller pieces. If either one of those smaller (easier to overlook) pieces tend to overrun the schedule it is also easier to correct that, in either one of the described ways, although I am quite reluctant about "crashing the schedule". That, in my experience has never worked well.