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Great explanation of Monte Carlo simulations, but if your looking for a kinder, gentler approach to modeling using Expected, Optimistic and Pessimistic estimates, MS-Project has had the rarely talked about PERT tool for years.

While not as sophisticated as MC simulations, PERT still gives you 3 different versions of how your project might go and an "easy" way to present the data. Unfortunately, there is no getting around the triple-entry required to make it work, but the results can be quite eye-opening.

Casey
Exertus, Inc.
978 853-3360
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