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I'd like to think that it'll continue to progress and gain market share but it's running up hill on a pretty uneven field. One can't deny the advantage for the competition in being the first pick when new hardware and software is developed.

The market as it is now would have to undergo some serious changes. Competing distributions have to be three times better than Windows to be seen equally. They'd have to survive Microsoft's marketing and less friendly business strategy as it clung to every shred of market share possible during it's reduction. I think we'd need changes in the scope of when Microsoft was facing the posability of going the way of the Baby-Bells to see such changes in the short term.

I'd definitely like to see it considered an equal class citizen at least enough for recognition from the hardware and specialty software developers. The second question was easy to answer. But the first is less clear still.