Do you think the iPad will be a super seller, or do you agree with dcolbert that it will fail to win significant market share?
Personally, I'll wait until TechRepublic gets one so that I can play with it before making a judgment call. I know it's not much of a prediction, but that's how I roll.
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If there's one thing that is for certain about Apple, it is that the marketing team certainly knows what it's doing. Apple has done more sales during a recession than most other companies have done during a boom. That is because Apple has a way of convincing consumers that they NEED its products. I would be surprised to see Apple fail to convince the market of this need once again.
They pretend they have created something new and unique, and hope that consumers don't do their homework to find out it's been done before and much better.
I do agree its a marketing machine at work, but I question the credibility.
I do agree its a marketing machine at work, but I question the credibility.
I don't think so. If it had been done better, why is the form factor languishing in obscurity? I have been waiting for over 20 years for a properly mobile device, as yet, the iPhone/iPod touch comes the closest. I own two laptops--that only see use when I'm traveling more than 200 miles from home--and have owned three different PDAs, one using the Handspring OS and two using Palm's OS. Not a one of them performed as I really wanted them to. They all fell short either in mobility or usability.
The iPad comes closest of all the devices I've studied or used. It's large enough to serve as a digital notepad, yet small enough to be easy to carry, though I admit I may need to sew a larger pocket into my jacket. It includes all the functionality of the iPod Touch while adding new productivity through the incorporation of the iWork apps which would allow me to edit my writing on the go without having to look for a place to set it down on a crowded bus or train.
No, I really don't believe it's been done better--yet. After all, marketing can only go so far. How many of you have a Popiel Pocket Fisherman, after all?
The iPad comes closest of all the devices I've studied or used. It's large enough to serve as a digital notepad, yet small enough to be easy to carry, though I admit I may need to sew a larger pocket into my jacket. It includes all the functionality of the iPod Touch while adding new productivity through the incorporation of the iWork apps which would allow me to edit my writing on the go without having to look for a place to set it down on a crowded bus or train.
No, I really don't believe it's been done better--yet. After all, marketing can only go so far. How many of you have a Popiel Pocket Fisherman, after all?
The iPad is not going to be good for long distance travel. Everything about the event indicated that it is designed to be used at home (or maybe at your corner Starbucks).
I took an Eee PC 701 to Spain with me, and it performed excellent in every way I needed it to.
If it had been a business trip, the netbook would have stayed home, and my corporate laptop would have gone with me instead.
Now, if Apple thinks I want a home desktop or notebook, a work desktop or notebook, a smart-phone, a netbook, *and* an iPad tablet... (along with a wireless contract on both the smart-phone *and* the iPad...)
They're nuts.
I'd like to see that Netbook, smart-phone and tablet converge into a SINGLE device.
And I think that will happen. But the iPad isn't it.
Note, the Eee PC 701 did so well in fact, I dumped it and moved up to a Lenovo S10 after my trip to Spain, which I've since travelled with to California. The limitations of the Eee PC were primarily the kind of limitations that concern me with the iPad. 4gb of non-user upgradable storage memory isn't enough for my mobile digital needs. Neither is 64. But my Lenovo with a 500 GB hard drive and 2GB of ram still cost me less than an entry level 16GB iPad. I can tether my S10 to my Android phone. don't see how that is going to happen with the iPad. So, let's move up to the wireless. That adds $130 to the base price, plus $15 a month ADDITIONAL to my wireless bill.
How is this a good deal? How is this the BEST thing to come to this part of the market so far?
My Lenovo has a full version of Win 7 on it.
The iPad, a phone OS.
A big, expensive, phone, with no voice capability?
I guess my problem is that the iPad is a SUB netbook (in all ways, even on paper). It doesn't have a full fledged OS, it doesn't have a full fledged processor, it doesn't have full fledged ports and I/O, it doesn't have full fledged user upgradability. But it isn't as basic as a phone.
So you've got Smart Phone -> iPad -> Netbook -> Laptop or Desktop PC.
If a LOT of Apple loyalists were fooled, it might be different, but the overwhelming reaction I saw from Apple loyalists was that they saw it EXACTLY like this.
I've got an associate here who was saying that initial polls show that 9% of respondents say they'll buy an iPad, and that 6% of respondents in a similar survey said that they would buy the iPhone, prior to that release.
Another guy, who doesn't care at all about these things said, "Yeah, but everyone was BUZZING about the iPhone like wild, regardless, and all the pre-release buzz about the iPad is negative."
He said from his perspective (which is the closest to non-biased I think I could find), that he thinks they'll be lucky to make that 9% number.
I took an Eee PC 701 to Spain with me, and it performed excellent in every way I needed it to.
If it had been a business trip, the netbook would have stayed home, and my corporate laptop would have gone with me instead.
Now, if Apple thinks I want a home desktop or notebook, a work desktop or notebook, a smart-phone, a netbook, *and* an iPad tablet... (along with a wireless contract on both the smart-phone *and* the iPad...)
They're nuts.
I'd like to see that Netbook, smart-phone and tablet converge into a SINGLE device.
And I think that will happen. But the iPad isn't it.
Note, the Eee PC 701 did so well in fact, I dumped it and moved up to a Lenovo S10 after my trip to Spain, which I've since travelled with to California. The limitations of the Eee PC were primarily the kind of limitations that concern me with the iPad. 4gb of non-user upgradable storage memory isn't enough for my mobile digital needs. Neither is 64. But my Lenovo with a 500 GB hard drive and 2GB of ram still cost me less than an entry level 16GB iPad. I can tether my S10 to my Android phone. don't see how that is going to happen with the iPad. So, let's move up to the wireless. That adds $130 to the base price, plus $15 a month ADDITIONAL to my wireless bill.
How is this a good deal? How is this the BEST thing to come to this part of the market so far?
My Lenovo has a full version of Win 7 on it.
The iPad, a phone OS.
A big, expensive, phone, with no voice capability?
I guess my problem is that the iPad is a SUB netbook (in all ways, even on paper). It doesn't have a full fledged OS, it doesn't have a full fledged processor, it doesn't have full fledged ports and I/O, it doesn't have full fledged user upgradability. But it isn't as basic as a phone.
So you've got Smart Phone -> iPad -> Netbook -> Laptop or Desktop PC.
If a LOT of Apple loyalists were fooled, it might be different, but the overwhelming reaction I saw from Apple loyalists was that they saw it EXACTLY like this.
I've got an associate here who was saying that initial polls show that 9% of respondents say they'll buy an iPad, and that 6% of respondents in a similar survey said that they would buy the iPhone, prior to that release.
Another guy, who doesn't care at all about these things said, "Yeah, but everyone was BUZZING about the iPhone like wild, regardless, and all the pre-release buzz about the iPad is negative."
He said from his perspective (which is the closest to non-biased I think I could find), that he thinks they'll be lucky to make that 9% number.
But it would be rare.
"The Amiga is going to be a success"...
that was a bitter crow to eat.
"The Amiga is going to be a success"...
that was a bitter crow to eat.
... and so far Apple has been selling an average of 1 million iPads every 28 days from the date of release in April. Already, based on some reports, the iPad has encouraged the turnaround of netbook sales, numbers now showing negative growth and pushing Apple's mobile computer sales (which includes all of Apple's laptops) into third place world wide, passing both Toshiba and Acer whose rise into the top five were almost exclusively due to netbook sales.
This response, therefore, is followup to my dialogue with D.Colbert about where the iPad would be in six months from the date of this article. If I remember, I will follow up again in a couple months when the iPad is six months on the market.
This response, therefore, is followup to my dialogue with D.Colbert about where the iPad would be in six months from the date of this article. If I remember, I will follow up again in a couple months when the iPad is six months on the market.
... and Apple has sold well over 10 million iPads with sales, if anything, increasing over the holiday period. I'm beginning to see them everywhere--in restaurants where people are reading or surfing or whatever over their meals, in salespeoples' hands as they present a product or work their sales paperwork and in the hands of photographers, musicians and I can't name how many other places where they're doing what the naysayers said couldn't be done.
And I'm keeping this thread alive for the purpose of that bet. It's my money on the line since I offered to pay for the coffee cup that is the prize.
http://techrepublic.com.com/5208-13622-0.html?forumID=102&threadID=326260&messageID=3248856&tag=content;leftCol
One year
iPad dominating market.
Note this article and discussion occurred immediately after the initial announcement of the iPad and after Microsoft had announced its partnership with HP to release an Win7 tablet with a similar form factor.
One year
iPad dominating market.
Note this article and discussion occurred immediately after the initial announcement of the iPad and after Microsoft had announced its partnership with HP to release an Win7 tablet with a similar form factor.
I replied to dcolbert back on august 2nd to see if he had tried an iPad at all, or if his opinion had changed. He never replied back, as you can see in the thread.
I offered to make the bet about hard numbers, but dcolbert offered very generous terms. He says the iPad will FLOP. (Either be discontinued or have the reputation of the previous Apple TV - not a big seller.)
Since the iPad is already a huge hit in pretty much every market (consumer, business, education, etc) I'm not too worried about it "flopping" any time soon.
Now I'm just waiting for dcolbert to admit he was wrong (big time), and for my mug of course.
Sent from my iPad
I offered to make the bet about hard numbers, but dcolbert offered very generous terms. He says the iPad will FLOP. (Either be discontinued or have the reputation of the previous Apple TV - not a big seller.)
Since the iPad is already a huge hit in pretty much every market (consumer, business, education, etc) I'm not too worried about it "flopping" any time soon.
Now I'm just waiting for dcolbert to admit he was wrong (big time), and for my mug of course.
Sent from my iPad
Vulpine, Vatadoro, I think it is pretty safe to say, at this point, I completely missed the mark on this one. I think there are mitigating circumstances. If you've followed me elsewhere, I have an iPad myself. It is not "magical" - I've yet to see a single fairy fly out of it to banish a Linux advocate to the 6th circle of Dante's inferno (which is what a Fairy would do, I am certain, if it existed). It *was* a revolutionary device. I've sung the praises in other threads on what the iPad does right. But many of my observations on what the iPad does wrong, were, and remain true - and with the late, kind of hesitant arrival of the Droid army of tablets, those flaws should be more apparent. I use my $140 rooted Coby Kyros more frequently than my $900 iPad, at this point, because of many of those reasons. But... you win, I thought this thing would be a flop, and it wasn't. It changed how people consume content.
Convince the customer they need your product. If that fails, convince them that the product needs them.
"Oh, but sure, can you honestly say you wouldn't want this kitten purring beside you at the end of a long day? No? But sir, we can't keep the cute little kitten either; if you don't take it, we'll have no choice but to put it.. " - Sold!
The TV appliance was the last product they failed to convince the market of a need for.
"Oh, but sure, can you honestly say you wouldn't want this kitten purring beside you at the end of a long day? No? But sir, we can't keep the cute little kitten either; if you don't take it, we'll have no choice but to put it.. " - Sold!
The TV appliance was the last product they failed to convince the market of a need for.
But until it can purr, meow, and demand salmon, I think I will be able to resist.
The kitten is an easier sell. (My opinion)
One of the things that I have disliked in technology for years has been the thinking that we always somehow NEED the newest and the latest. What I NEED is the tool that gets the job done.
The kitten is an easier sell. (My opinion)
One of the things that I have disliked in technology for years has been the thinking that we always somehow NEED the newest and the latest. What I NEED is the tool that gets the job done.
So hard to refuse that shiny new gadget with all the buttons, lights, and beeping noises.
I mean, I now have 10 billion pictures stored on redundant hard drives that I will never ever lose, that will never fade, an that I cannot possibly hope to ever wade through in my life.
Whereas in the old days, I got pictures 24 at a time, kept the best, threw the worst out, and put what I kept in an album that went on the shelf and collected dust.
In the past, I missed a once in a lifetime shot because I was out of film.
Now I get the shot, but I'll never find it again because it becomes a needle in a haystack in my overflowing digital photo collection.
On my iPod, every now and then a song will play on shuffle and I'll think, "I LOVE that song! Haven't heard it in soooo long".
And it'll be another 5 years until it gets shuffled into the mix again.
In the past, I had a dozen cassettes.
You two are probably right. But, I don't think my inner Luddite will ever overpower my outer uber-geek.
I mean, I now have 10 billion pictures stored on redundant hard drives that I will never ever lose, that will never fade, an that I cannot possibly hope to ever wade through in my life.
Whereas in the old days, I got pictures 24 at a time, kept the best, threw the worst out, and put what I kept in an album that went on the shelf and collected dust.
In the past, I missed a once in a lifetime shot because I was out of film.
Now I get the shot, but I'll never find it again because it becomes a needle in a haystack in my overflowing digital photo collection.
On my iPod, every now and then a song will play on shuffle and I'll think, "I LOVE that song! Haven't heard it in soooo long".
And it'll be another 5 years until it gets shuffled into the mix again.
In the past, I had a dozen cassettes.
You two are probably right. But, I don't think my inner Luddite will ever overpower my outer uber-geek.
We're all guilty of chasing blinky lights but what you list is more of geniune advantages from newer products. While they where once blinky and new devices, things like digital cameras have taken over respective markets. There is a very valid argument for buying a digital camera over film for most people.
What I'm referring to is when marketings "Need" item is not remotely the consumers "required" item. These days, one may required a mobile phone but that does not mean it has to be an Iphone though Apple Sales tells you that you need one.
I pick the mobile phone as an example only. In your case, film is really a specialty item for art photography; it's far more rational for regular picture snappers to just get a digital and go at it. Heck, professionals outside of celuloit (sp?) art are on digital cameras now.
I'd say your far from a sucker for marketing given some of your postings. the Ipad marketing sure doesn't seem to have you convinced that you need the device to feel complete as a person.
What I'm referring to is when marketings "Need" item is not remotely the consumers "required" item. These days, one may required a mobile phone but that does not mean it has to be an Iphone though Apple Sales tells you that you need one.
I pick the mobile phone as an example only. In your case, film is really a specialty item for art photography; it's far more rational for regular picture snappers to just get a digital and go at it. Heck, professionals outside of celuloit (sp?) art are on digital cameras now.
I'd say your far from a sucker for marketing given some of your postings. the Ipad marketing sure doesn't seem to have you convinced that you need the device to feel complete as a person.
Aren't you misrepresenting the advertising? Where, in all of the iPhone advertising, does Apple say you need an iPhone?
No, they show you its features, they describe how it's on the Fastest (not largest) 3G network, they make you want the iPhone, but never do they say you need the iPhone. That part they leave up to you.
No, they show you its features, they describe how it's on the Fastest (not largest) 3G network, they make you want the iPhone, but never do they say you need the iPhone. That part they leave up to you.
I bought an Amiga 2000.
I also bought a Casiopiea E115
And an early iPaq
And a Casio 300x200 camera, then an Olympus 640x480 camera, then a Sony 640x480 10x Zoom camera that saved to 3.5" *floppy* disks!
I suffer from early-adopteritis. Buying immature technology is almost always, almost universally, a let down.
Very rarely do you buy a technology that is genuinely *emering* and go, "THAT WAS MONEY WELL SPENT!"
I also bought a Casiopiea E115
And an early iPaq
And a Casio 300x200 camera, then an Olympus 640x480 camera, then a Sony 640x480 10x Zoom camera that saved to 3.5" *floppy* disks!
I suffer from early-adopteritis. Buying immature technology is almost always, almost universally, a let down.
Very rarely do you buy a technology that is genuinely *emering* and go, "THAT WAS MONEY WELL SPENT!"
I also admit that I'm a cynic about sales/marketing but the retail goal is often to move units and if everyone was a widget, you have to convince them that they also need your widget. Sure, the one you have now may do everything you need but look at our new product, it has an extra blinking light.
Consider mobile phones. The unit may work perfectly. You need pictures, voice and text (hypothetically) and it does all those things but you can bet your service providers marketing or sales folk will be around telling you why you *need*, just gotta have, can't live without upgrading your phone to one that does everything you currently do but has a different colour of casing. Do highschool and gradeschool kids Need 400$ mobile phones; nope.. but they have them.
Now, I understand your enthusiasm about Apple product and I respect that. But Apple's sales/marketing is not really any different; they are still telling consumer why they need, just gotta have, can't live without upgrading. yes, last years Ipod had 6 gig of storage and you could have it on 24/7 for five years and still not get through all your music but how can you possibly live without our new 7 gig Ipod?
Consider mobile phones. The unit may work perfectly. You need pictures, voice and text (hypothetically) and it does all those things but you can bet your service providers marketing or sales folk will be around telling you why you *need*, just gotta have, can't live without upgrading your phone to one that does everything you currently do but has a different colour of casing. Do highschool and gradeschool kids Need 400$ mobile phones; nope.. but they have them.
Now, I understand your enthusiasm about Apple product and I respect that. But Apple's sales/marketing is not really any different; they are still telling consumer why they need, just gotta have, can't live without upgrading. yes, last years Ipod had 6 gig of storage and you could have it on 24/7 for five years and still not get through all your music but how can you possibly live without our new 7 gig Ipod?
I'm guilty of earlyadopteritis also but within the limits of my financial budget. I never regretted my Newton 2001 but my HP winCE clamshell and plenty of other purchases stung. For awhile I was doing a one/two thing; buy, discover it's crap but learn about the product type as a result, buy what I should have got the first time.
I'd have a very fun computer play room if budgets where a little less stretched though.
I'd have a very fun computer play room if budgets where a little less stretched though.
I think your mistake here is that you're calling it newly-emerging technology, when it's really building on the bases of the iPod and the iPhone. It's already 9-year-old technology in some areas and at least 4-year-old technology in others. Apple is adding new technologies as well, using new multi-finger gestures that could make using the iPad as easy as using Native American Sign Language--it's different, but not that hard to learn.
I bought an Apple II, before the '+', the 'c' or the 'e'. I made it fully as functional over 10 years as the 'e' itself lacking only the little key. I also managed to put over 5MB of RAM into it with peripheral cards made by Applied Engineering that I used as RAMdisk space.
My first Mac was a Mac Plus, the third model built and still fairly limited in on-board storage. A 4-MB hard drive was a peripheral device for it.
An Olympus Stylus was my first digital camera. Had I not spilled soda on it, I'd still be using it. I replaced it with an Olympus Ultra-zoom, one of the first, with only 3.1MP. I still have it and use it.
I, too, suffer from 'Early-Adoptitis,' but it appears that, unlike you, I analyze the products first and buy what really looks like it will do what I want and need. This means I won't be in that line to buy the first iPads, but I will be there within a week to see if it can do for me what no other current tablet or netbook can. If it does, then I will probably buy it. If not, then I'll wait for v.2. My first impression is that it will.
I bought an Apple II, before the '+', the 'c' or the 'e'. I made it fully as functional over 10 years as the 'e' itself lacking only the little key. I also managed to put over 5MB of RAM into it with peripheral cards made by Applied Engineering that I used as RAMdisk space.
My first Mac was a Mac Plus, the third model built and still fairly limited in on-board storage. A 4-MB hard drive was a peripheral device for it.
An Olympus Stylus was my first digital camera. Had I not spilled soda on it, I'd still be using it. I replaced it with an Olympus Ultra-zoom, one of the first, with only 3.1MP. I still have it and use it.
I, too, suffer from 'Early-Adoptitis,' but it appears that, unlike you, I analyze the products first and buy what really looks like it will do what I want and need. This means I won't be in that line to buy the first iPads, but I will be there within a week to see if it can do for me what no other current tablet or netbook can. If it does, then I will probably buy it. If not, then I'll wait for v.2. My first impression is that it will.
But like Neon, I may have learned from the school of hard knocks and bad purchases.
And not even BAD purchases, well researched purchases that just didn't pan out. To act as if you can research and pick the best product out within a couple of weeks of release to market is plain hubris. The history of tech is littered with the corpses of superior products that failed against inferior competitors for no clear or obvious reason.
And yes, you could do a lot with the original Apple II, II+ and IIe (up until the IIc). Add that 80 col card and expand the memory and hook up an external MFM 5mb hard drive.
If you had VERY DEEP pockets. You could do a lot more with an IBM PC XT for a lot less money. Which is pretty shocking, considering how much PC/XT technology cost at the time.
Oregon Trail in Mono green on your $4500 Apple IIe with a ProFile FTW! Atari and Commodore are the sux0rz, man!
The Mac took away lots of the expandibility, while retaining all of the cost.
At least Apple has been consistent for decades.
I'm sure Steve appreciates your brand loyalty, though. We'll see if there are enough guys like you to make the iPad a winner. You just might be right.
And not even BAD purchases, well researched purchases that just didn't pan out. To act as if you can research and pick the best product out within a couple of weeks of release to market is plain hubris. The history of tech is littered with the corpses of superior products that failed against inferior competitors for no clear or obvious reason.
And yes, you could do a lot with the original Apple II, II+ and IIe (up until the IIc). Add that 80 col card and expand the memory and hook up an external MFM 5mb hard drive.
If you had VERY DEEP pockets. You could do a lot more with an IBM PC XT for a lot less money. Which is pretty shocking, considering how much PC/XT technology cost at the time.
Oregon Trail in Mono green on your $4500 Apple IIe with a ProFile FTW! Atari and Commodore are the sux0rz, man!
The Mac took away lots of the expandibility, while retaining all of the cost.
At least Apple has been consistent for decades.
I'm sure Steve appreciates your brand loyalty, though. We'll see if there are enough guys like you to make the iPad a winner. You just might be right.
I just don't see this going anywhere. Firstly, the idea of a "tablet pc" came and went years ago and very few people jumped on the bandwagon. Secondly, why spend all that money on the iPad when I can spend two times less and get a netbook with TONS more features. Thirdly, do they plan to make a rubber case to fit it, because I can see lots of people scratching or damaging the iPad. Fourthly, what's the market Apple is going for? I'm still trying to figure out who will see value in it. You know what I think?! I think Apple spent so much money on the iPhone, that they need to milk it to the bone, hence the itouch and ipad.
Stick with what sells. This does not include the iPad.
Stick with what sells. This does not include the iPad.
Well, by THEY I mean the people who actually designed the tablet with a purpose. It never failed at all, in fact they are still worth thousands and have a marketplace that consumer electronics can't touch, due to regulatory requriements for security, a need to be intrinsically safe and sterilized.
There's an entire industry for these and has been for years.
Health care, military, oil & gas etc.
http://www.amtek.com.tw/english/Products_itablet_T200=04.htm#
i-Pad? Yeah....sure. I wish them good luck with that
There's an entire industry for these and has been for years.
Health care, military, oil & gas etc.
http://www.amtek.com.tw/english/Products_itablet_T200=04.htm#
i-Pad? Yeah....sure. I wish them good luck with that
The iPhone is in Health Care?
The iPhone is in the Military?
The iPhone is in Sales?
The iPhone is in Legal offices?
The iPhone is in Banking?
They're not even in "Toughbook"? cases!
Methinks the iPad already has a massive market waiting for its release.
The iPhone is in the Military?
The iPhone is in Sales?
The iPhone is in Legal offices?
The iPhone is in Banking?
They're not even in "Toughbook"? cases!
Methinks the iPad already has a massive market waiting for its release.
People who work in those arenas have purchased iPhones, Some businesses are even supporting those phones, but there's a vast difference between supporting something an employee purchased and purchasing it for roll out to employees. And since there is no way to encrypt the iPhone (or sync it on the network) using NSA keys, I seriously doubt the military is using iPhones in any official capacity. If you have a link to that, I'd like to see it. As Oz pointed out, the companies and people who need tablet PCs are already using them, and the tablets they have are faster, more durable, and more flexible than the iPad.
I'm one of those constant readers referred to above. I always have a book available, and since I can't afford to keep buying new, I tend to alternate my reading between new, used, and previously-read books. Both the iPad and the Kindle have one major shortcoming keeping me from considering the purchase of either: neither will fit in my back pocket or jacket pocket. With the exception of the Wheel of Time series, I've never had that problem with a paperback.
I'm one of those constant readers referred to above. I always have a book available, and since I can't afford to keep buying new, I tend to alternate my reading between new, used, and previously-read books. Both the iPad and the Kindle have one major shortcoming keeping me from considering the purchase of either: neither will fit in my back pocket or jacket pocket. With the exception of the Wheel of Time series, I've never had that problem with a paperback.
1: The tablet PC has never been done right, though the Newton came closest. Everything since has lacked what a tablet really needs: simplicity.
2: The higher-end netbooks come close to the price of the lower-end iPad. If all you're worried about is price, then buy your netbook. However, what you call 'Tons more features' is really a reliance on an OS built for the desktop, not for mobility. The form factor itself is nothing but an undersized, underpowered laptop. If you want to go back to the 90s, that's fine by me. Personally, I want to move ahead, not back.
3: You didn't pay much attention to the announcement back in January, did you. A number of different peripherals were displayed at the same time. One of them was a rather handsome case that makes the iPad look like a book and lets you rest it upright for viewing movies or at a slight angle for typing. Of course, in the process it covers the screen to protect it from scratching under normal use.
4: Again, if you'd listened to the announcement, you would know; it's aimed almost squarely at the netbook market, adding ebook functionality as a bonus. Nearly everyone who has bought a netbook for its 'media' capabilities will find the iPad a better product; those who only use a notebook as a media device will find the lower cost of the iPad a bargain. But due to the inclusion of iWork and many of the professional apps in the App Store, the iPad can also be a fully productive device in almost any enterprise environment as well. I'd say it has a huge potential market as a result.
If Apple had listened to your advice of "Stick with what sells," the iMac, the iPod and the iPhone would never have seen the light of day. Apple thrives on doing what the others won't. As a result, the iPad is likely to see a far larger market than you can imagine.
2: The higher-end netbooks come close to the price of the lower-end iPad. If all you're worried about is price, then buy your netbook. However, what you call 'Tons more features' is really a reliance on an OS built for the desktop, not for mobility. The form factor itself is nothing but an undersized, underpowered laptop. If you want to go back to the 90s, that's fine by me. Personally, I want to move ahead, not back.
3: You didn't pay much attention to the announcement back in January, did you. A number of different peripherals were displayed at the same time. One of them was a rather handsome case that makes the iPad look like a book and lets you rest it upright for viewing movies or at a slight angle for typing. Of course, in the process it covers the screen to protect it from scratching under normal use.
4: Again, if you'd listened to the announcement, you would know; it's aimed almost squarely at the netbook market, adding ebook functionality as a bonus. Nearly everyone who has bought a netbook for its 'media' capabilities will find the iPad a better product; those who only use a notebook as a media device will find the lower cost of the iPad a bargain. But due to the inclusion of iWork and many of the professional apps in the App Store, the iPad can also be a fully productive device in almost any enterprise environment as well. I'd say it has a huge potential market as a result.
If Apple had listened to your advice of "Stick with what sells," the iMac, the iPod and the iPhone would never have seen the light of day. Apple thrives on doing what the others won't. As a result, the iPad is likely to see a far larger market than you can imagine.
We'll have to wait and just see... Though I never said the iMac, iPod, and iPhone weren't selling. In fact that's what I was refering too when I said "Stick to what sells." Now this "massive market" you speak of, I don't agree that it will be massive. Yes you will find your diehard apple lovers that will buy it. Maybe even some new comers to the apple world. But on the grand scheme of things, I don't see a massive market. I see it as apple trying to squeeze everything they can out of a design that will change in the next year or two.
... despite the fact that, unlike every other brands desktop/laptop markets have been hovering around 5% growth or less over the last year, netbooks have been growing at over 50%y-o-y over the same time period. In all reality, netbooks have been cannibalizing everybody's notebook market in particular except Apple's. This alone is a massive market that I feel the iPad will end up dominating, replacing many, if not most, of the netbooks that don't meet up to their purchasers' original intent and possibly drawing a notable percentage of the notebook market as well, those who really don't need all the OS power of the notebook but realize that the netbook is too weak. The design of the iPad may change somewhat, just as the iPhone has, but you'll notice that the form factor really hasn't because you can't make it much more simple than it already is.
Ok... so, the thing about Netbooks is that they're PC and Linux based, so the number of Apple notebook sales "cannibalized" by Netbook growth can't really be rated.
But if Apple wasn't feeling the competition, they wouldn't be trying to compete. And the Hackintosh community has been most active in the Netbook community. I know, my Lenovo wasn't *always* a Windows 7 machine. Maybe that is part of the reason I'm underwhelmed with what the iPad brings to the table.
Second, your claim that the Netbook is "90s" technology and that the iPad is "moving ahead" couldn't be further from the truth. It is typical of Apple's marketing hype, though. In fact, the A4 is a slower clock than the LAST generation of Intel Atoms. Core Duo Atoms are miles ahead of the A4. The fact is that the A4 is more 90s-tech than anything in any Atom core processor ever released, including the original Eee PC 701.
And here is the problem. If a netbook is too weak, then the iPad is weaker. If it is the OS that is the problem, there will be Atom based Android devices, giving the same kind of interface.
Apple faces very stiff competition in this market. As a matter of fact, they don't enjoy the comfortable lead they held in the smart-phone market anymore, either. The pressure is on, and they're coming to market with something that already seems behind the curve.
But if Apple wasn't feeling the competition, they wouldn't be trying to compete. And the Hackintosh community has been most active in the Netbook community. I know, my Lenovo wasn't *always* a Windows 7 machine. Maybe that is part of the reason I'm underwhelmed with what the iPad brings to the table.
Second, your claim that the Netbook is "90s" technology and that the iPad is "moving ahead" couldn't be further from the truth. It is typical of Apple's marketing hype, though. In fact, the A4 is a slower clock than the LAST generation of Intel Atoms. Core Duo Atoms are miles ahead of the A4. The fact is that the A4 is more 90s-tech than anything in any Atom core processor ever released, including the original Eee PC 701.
And here is the problem. If a netbook is too weak, then the iPad is weaker. If it is the OS that is the problem, there will be Atom based Android devices, giving the same kind of interface.
Apple faces very stiff competition in this market. As a matter of fact, they don't enjoy the comfortable lead they held in the smart-phone market anymore, either. The pressure is on, and they're coming to market with something that already seems behind the curve.
It is very possible that Android-based tablets could offer a significant challenge. However, the manufacturers and developers need to unify and present a coherent range of products to do so. With the recent articles about Android's developmental splintering, it looks like that front is going to fall apart before it can make a significant dent in any of the competing brands' markets. This holds true as much for the smart phones as it does for the tablets.
Apple's biggest advantage here is that it presents a solid, unified front. Updating the OS on the iPhone works with every model (even though some features can't be included due to hardware differences) and works simultaneously. By having a single hardware source and a single OS source, the Apple can punch through the poorly-organized offense of the Android Army. Of course, if the Android venders decide that they need a single General, namely Google, then maybe, just maybe, the fight will be even.
Meanwhile, RIM's tactics seem to be, "Sell More! Sell Cheaper!" while Nokia is yelling, "Sue! Sue!" We'll just have to see how those battles work out.
Apple's biggest advantage here is that it presents a solid, unified front. Updating the OS on the iPhone works with every model (even though some features can't be included due to hardware differences) and works simultaneously. By having a single hardware source and a single OS source, the Apple can punch through the poorly-organized offense of the Android Army. Of course, if the Android venders decide that they need a single General, namely Google, then maybe, just maybe, the fight will be even.
Meanwhile, RIM's tactics seem to be, "Sell More! Sell Cheaper!" while Nokia is yelling, "Sue! Sue!" We'll just have to see how those battles work out.
If a bunch of different manufacturers come to the table with a bunch of different platforms they're going to split the market and probably all lose. Moblin could effectively derail Android.
The Linux effect could be Apple's saving grace.
The Linux effect could be Apple's saving grace.
Intel and Nokia announced a few weeks back that they are merging Maemo Linux and Moblin Linux into the newly named Meego Linux distribution. This is meant to be an OSS industry collaboration that any hardware vendor can make use of.
If I understand correctly, hardware vendors provide there own kernel and drivers or at least drivers but the rest of the stack is consistent. The question will be if it gets spread out like Android has been becoming or if they can keep the Meego distribution consistent across vendor hardware products outside of the hardware specific drivers and/or kernel.
Personally, I think Meego could be a good thing provided it's at least as open as Nokia has kept Maemo. The rumoured absense of a Meego firmware for the N900 has put that puarchase on hold and potentially killed it infavor of an N910 or such. Also, we'll have to see if the Maemo community migrates to Meego or breaks up into the other mobile OS options. But, if there is an N910 with a few hardware tweaks from the N900 and Meego will let me at a command line, package manager and ruby/metasploit then it'll cover my needs. Even if it is an rpm based distribution (why they prefer that over deb, I don't know).
If I understand correctly, hardware vendors provide there own kernel and drivers or at least drivers but the rest of the stack is consistent. The question will be if it gets spread out like Android has been becoming or if they can keep the Meego distribution consistent across vendor hardware products outside of the hardware specific drivers and/or kernel.
Personally, I think Meego could be a good thing provided it's at least as open as Nokia has kept Maemo. The rumoured absense of a Meego firmware for the N900 has put that puarchase on hold and potentially killed it infavor of an N910 or such. Also, we'll have to see if the Maemo community migrates to Meego or breaks up into the other mobile OS options. But, if there is an N910 with a few hardware tweaks from the N900 and Meego will let me at a command line, package manager and ruby/metasploit then it'll cover my needs. Even if it is an rpm based distribution (why they prefer that over deb, I don't know).
This is part of the problem that could prove Vulpine right...
I was just reading some article on a pro-Linux site where the author (I forget his name, but a well known industry Linux pundit) was saying that the iPad would fail, but was pushing Moblin as the probably platform for Linux tablet success.
Moblin is already gone, it is now something ELSE... but the end result is the same.
Linux already has an open platform for tablet devices that has an established user base. The Linux community should get together and vote to support JUST that platform, because that strength could be a success for Linux.
But I have my doubts that the Linux community will be able to do that.
Android may be able to succeed despite this, though, based solely on the fact that is is the only thing built on Linux that has fairly broad consumer acceptance.
I was just reading some article on a pro-Linux site where the author (I forget his name, but a well known industry Linux pundit) was saying that the iPad would fail, but was pushing Moblin as the probably platform for Linux tablet success.
Moblin is already gone, it is now something ELSE... but the end result is the same.
Linux already has an open platform for tablet devices that has an established user base. The Linux community should get together and vote to support JUST that platform, because that strength could be a success for Linux.
But I have my doubts that the Linux community will be able to do that.
Android may be able to succeed despite this, though, based solely on the fact that is is the only thing built on Linux that has fairly broad consumer acceptance.
It was a mostly open project but still "owned" by Nokia (provided the core firmware to build around) and things like the NIC driver remained proprietary (and continued to have bugs that would have been fixed in the first months it was OSS code). The community only carried so much say but Nokia may manage to keep them along.
Now, in FOSS terms, a project lead's last responsibility when loosing interest in the project is to hand it off to the next interested project lead. Based on this, Nokia should have opened the Maemo code and left it with the community to continue on with. If it where fully open, this is what would have happened or a Maemo fork would have remained behind.
I don't know Moblin's relationship between community and owner.
Projects come and go, and forks happen but this one's been a pretty big WTF with the minimal announcement from Nokia and no real information offered to the community who's been adding the real value into it's distribution. As I said elsewhere, the webmaster behind Maemo-Guru and Symbian-Guru folded up the Maemo-Guru website about two days after I heard the announcements. It kinda sucked, I found maemo-Guru and the first time I see a new post go up it's "so long flolks, thanks for the fish".
These are all issues with the companies and miss-handling of the community rather than the community and the distribution itself. I am open to new information though and waiting to see how it all evens out after the bruhaha passes. Mabey Meego and whatever new hardware uses it will rock the heck out of it's mother and father distributions.
Now, in FOSS terms, a project lead's last responsibility when loosing interest in the project is to hand it off to the next interested project lead. Based on this, Nokia should have opened the Maemo code and left it with the community to continue on with. If it where fully open, this is what would have happened or a Maemo fork would have remained behind.
I don't know Moblin's relationship between community and owner.
Projects come and go, and forks happen but this one's been a pretty big WTF with the minimal announcement from Nokia and no real information offered to the community who's been adding the real value into it's distribution. As I said elsewhere, the webmaster behind Maemo-Guru and Symbian-Guru folded up the Maemo-Guru website about two days after I heard the announcements. It kinda sucked, I found maemo-Guru and the first time I see a new post go up it's "so long flolks, thanks for the fish".
These are all issues with the companies and miss-handling of the community rather than the community and the distribution itself. I am open to new information though and waiting to see how it all evens out after the bruhaha passes. Mabey Meego and whatever new hardware uses it will rock the heck out of it's mother and father distributions.
Well, and sometimes you've got to break away with the old and put something new out there. WinMo 7 is an example of that.
The problem is that Linux feeds into EVERY idea, every branch, and not all of them go anywhere, and in the meantime, they're splitting up the community with hundreds of projects that mostly compete with one another, and never effectively compete with the real targets.
Android is a 1st, in that sense - it is a viable competition for the iPhone and every other mobile OS out there.
It is possible that some new mobile OS platform built on Linux could come along that is even *better* than Android at competing with the other platforms floating around.
It is possible.
The problem is that Linux feeds into EVERY idea, every branch, and not all of them go anywhere, and in the meantime, they're splitting up the community with hundreds of projects that mostly compete with one another, and never effectively compete with the real targets.
Android is a 1st, in that sense - it is a viable competition for the iPhone and every other mobile OS out there.
It is possible that some new mobile OS platform built on Linux could come along that is even *better* than Android at competing with the other platforms floating around.
It is possible.
That's the thing, it's not about toppling eveeill Microsoft for everyone. Not every distribution is targeting world dominance or some specific competitor. I think this is a common mistaken idea. People say "Linux" thinking the kernel and anything that runs on it is part of one single vendor's OS. The competitive product is the distribution from companies who's goal is to compete.
In computer terms, it's the assembled computer that is the product not it's indavidual parts. Why is there no outcry about the gastly computer vendors using such a wide spread of assembled parts. Dell with 400$ boxes of parts through to boutique gaming rigs with the highest grade, latest parts; this whole computer market is just to fractured. Why don't they all just merge and deliver a single computer from a single parts list?
It's kind of like claiming all written literature is too fractured because it's not all focused in competition against radio and TV. For some, it simply about writing and the joy of reading; the ability to enjoy a story without requiring the services of TV production companies that decide what is "hot" this season.
Now, if all of Fossdom was concerned with the single goal of retail market dominance then I'd agree fully; merge Red Hat, Novell, Mandriva, Connonical and the rest of it and watch the mega-corp eat the other corporations alive. Conscript all those unruly independents developing on there own too.
In the case of Android, we are looking at a single distribution which is the product rather than parts of it like the kernel it happens to contain. It is meant to compete against the other mobile OS in the market. Google's secrecy about each next version is partly responsible for the fracturing of Android based devices between distribution versions. I'd agree fully that the distribution should be kept consolidated and devices which use it be designed to accept future versions as simple firmware upgrades.
In computer terms, it's the assembled computer that is the product not it's indavidual parts. Why is there no outcry about the gastly computer vendors using such a wide spread of assembled parts. Dell with 400$ boxes of parts through to boutique gaming rigs with the highest grade, latest parts; this whole computer market is just to fractured. Why don't they all just merge and deliver a single computer from a single parts list?
It's kind of like claiming all written literature is too fractured because it's not all focused in competition against radio and TV. For some, it simply about writing and the joy of reading; the ability to enjoy a story without requiring the services of TV production companies that decide what is "hot" this season.
Now, if all of Fossdom was concerned with the single goal of retail market dominance then I'd agree fully; merge Red Hat, Novell, Mandriva, Connonical and the rest of it and watch the mega-corp eat the other corporations alive. Conscript all those unruly independents developing on there own too.
In the case of Android, we are looking at a single distribution which is the product rather than parts of it like the kernel it happens to contain. It is meant to compete against the other mobile OS in the market. Google's secrecy about each next version is partly responsible for the fracturing of Android based devices between distribution versions. I'd agree fully that the distribution should be kept consolidated and devices which use it be designed to accept future versions as simple firmware upgrades.
Vulpine would say, "Exactly. The iPad!"
I hate to respond so simply to such a well written post, Neon, but there it is.
Now, I'm not saying I agree with Vulpine, or disagree with you.
But to compete effectively with Apple, we're going to need a more narrow range of competitors that can match or beat, feature of feature, the benefits of the Apple model.
I hate to respond so simply to such a well written post, Neon, but there it is.
Now, I'm not saying I agree with Vulpine, or disagree with you.
But to compete effectively with Apple, we're going to need a more narrow range of competitors that can match or beat, feature of feature, the benefits of the Apple model.
When it comes to comparison at the final product level, I'd have to agree also. Companies that compete against Apple will have to provide slick devices regardless of if they are more open to advanced users.
... is a device about the size of two credit cards side-by-side that can fold out to a full A4-size. it should have a wafer-thin keyboard, petabyte scale on-board permanent storage - easily done with colourisable crystal lattices - terabyte per second completely free wifi, voice and handwriting recognition, and VOIP (free) and a gigabyte resolution video camera, with one hundred times optical zoom (all done by electronic deformation of the lens, like a human eye, only better) and at least four octaves of visual range, from deep UV to deep IR .
It should weigh less than two hundred grams and cost abut a hundred UKpounds. And it should automatically back itself up to the home network every time anything on it changes, just in case it gets lost.
I'd like a totally anonymous Operating System, with completely Open Sourced integrated applications, and complete backwards compatibility with every file format ever used.
And integration with TV's via SCART, composite and everything else but using the one USB-5.0 output port and one connector cable with hot-swappable ends.
Come on, Apple, that's not too much of a request, is it?
The iPad? Ithink if I won one in a raffle I might play with it for an hour or so, but I wouldn't pay more than fifty pence for the ticket.
The iPad isn't worth more than that.
:>
It should weigh less than two hundred grams and cost abut a hundred UKpounds. And it should automatically back itself up to the home network every time anything on it changes, just in case it gets lost.
I'd like a totally anonymous Operating System, with completely Open Sourced integrated applications, and complete backwards compatibility with every file format ever used.
And integration with TV's via SCART, composite and everything else but using the one USB-5.0 output port and one connector cable with hot-swappable ends.
Come on, Apple, that's not too much of a request, is it?
The iPad? Ithink if I won one in a raffle I might play with it for an hour or so, but I wouldn't pay more than fifty pence for the ticket.
The iPad isn't worth more than that.
:>
But I don't think technology is anywhere near that as yet, and the rest of that simply requires a perfect Socialist society, which is essentially impossible.
I think Apple can really get significant market share and create the next generation Apple advocates if the education institutions adopt the ipad universally. I am already hearing about universities that are considering this.
http://techrepublic.com.com/5208-12843-0.html?forumID=102&threadID=326196&start=0
Until this device hits the streets, all we're doing is speculating. You've introduced nothing that wasn't said a month ago.
Until this device hits the streets, all we're doing is speculating. You've introduced nothing that wasn't said a month ago.
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