Discussion on:
View:
Show:
I do think that we are going to see the clunky desktop tower eventually go away. But I see it being replaced by a number of things from tablet PCs to laptops to smart phones. I thought this a few years ago when laptops finally started coming down in price and their specs were finally catching up with the desktops.
...Jobs is always publicly promoting the product he is most interested in. He's a marketing guru...very good at it. There will be a day when the PC as we know it changes or becomes obsolete, but I think it's years away. We've still got to communicate with computers, and that's a two way street. We've got to be able to see the displays, and some of us have lots of data to look at during the course of our jobs (yes...someday the computer will reduce that load), and we've got to communicate back. It's difficult to do if you don't have an input device, and typing on a tablet screen doesn't work well. Communicating by voice in a reasonable manner with a computer is still a long ways off, and it would be difficult to do in some circumstances...large rooms, industrial sites, meeting rooms, etc.
I believe the device we call a PC will be around in it's present form for a long time yet.
I believe the device we call a PC will be around in it's present form for a long time yet.
While I don't think of Jobs as some crackpot, he is interested in promoting his products. Look at how long the tablet PC has been getting development and look at its current state. I think the "post PC era" will be a good 10 years before we can say "it has begun"...
The Wii uses a balance board, a remote control and nun-chuck as input device. Touch screens are used in a lot of consumer products. Voice input is already used as input for telephone, skype and other human to human communication and is growing as product/human communication. All still are hooked up to a central processing unit. Output devices remain video, audio and printing. Maybe we are in the post-PC era, but we are still in the input-process-output era (= information era)
... a tower-type of processing unit with separate keyboard, pointing device and display. These can, in some cases, have the processing unit in or attached to the display as an all-in-one type of device.
I believe the point is that rather than being stuck to a desk or a chair for everyday computing, mobility is becoming more important, as evidenced by the explosion of smart phones and now phone OS devices such as the iPad. Notebook computers filled this need for most people and netbooks emphasized the point that people wanted compact, lightweight and relatively inexpensive--essentially they wanted mobility yet they wanted the ability to view the web, perform basic computing tasks and carry their personal media, whether that be books, music or videos, wherever they went. The problem was that the clamshell form factor, even when as small as a netbook, could not be used in every instance; it had to be set down on something in order to use it. The tablet, like the smart phone before it, can be held in the hand as easily as any book and used almost anywhere without the need to set it down.
In other words, the average person is now freed up from the need to sit at table or desk where the PC has ruled for the last 30 years. We are now into the age of MC: Mobile Computing, and I truly believe the paradigm shift will come far sooner than you expect.
I believe the point is that rather than being stuck to a desk or a chair for everyday computing, mobility is becoming more important, as evidenced by the explosion of smart phones and now phone OS devices such as the iPad. Notebook computers filled this need for most people and netbooks emphasized the point that people wanted compact, lightweight and relatively inexpensive--essentially they wanted mobility yet they wanted the ability to view the web, perform basic computing tasks and carry their personal media, whether that be books, music or videos, wherever they went. The problem was that the clamshell form factor, even when as small as a netbook, could not be used in every instance; it had to be set down on something in order to use it. The tablet, like the smart phone before it, can be held in the hand as easily as any book and used almost anywhere without the need to set it down.
In other words, the average person is now freed up from the need to sit at table or desk where the PC has ruled for the last 30 years. We are now into the age of MC: Mobile Computing, and I truly believe the paradigm shift will come far sooner than you expect.
I'm convinced Jobs was refering to any Non-Apple computer, as the old ad series implied. And if that is his meaning I very strongly *disagree*.
I typed on an iPad screen (in landscape orientation) a couple of weeks ago. I was surprised at how nice it was; I was actually more than on a standard keyboard.
Touch screen devices suck to type on in my opinion and every one I have tried to use I have typed slower on. I will never own a device that does not have a physical keyboard.
"Too sensitive," I exclaimed. "I can type 60 words per minute on my old manual typewriter, I can't do better than 30 on this electric because I'm always having to backspace and correct!" That was almost 40 years ago. Now I'm typing on a computer with even better speed than I could on the old manual typewriter. It's just a matter of getting used to the changes. I'll admit I'm not yet used to touch-typing on a touch-screen, but I'm getting the hang of it.
Besides, you can still use a bluetooth or hard-wired keyboard if you need to do heavy typing.
Besides, you can still use a bluetooth or hard-wired keyboard if you need to do heavy typing.
They've been around for a LONG time. Just because apple starts using them doesn't mean they are new. I disagree that touch screen keyboards can be compared to manual/electric typewriters in the evolution of the keyboard. It will never replace a physical keyboard. The typing accuracy and speed will never be there with a virtual keyboard. They are nothing but a joke to use.
I find they're a lot of two-fingered typist in the computing world. Either you have very small hands or are an incredibly adaptable typist. It seems Apple users are like a cult; they accept every procedure that Apple employs. They believe Apple' way is the only way without question. My reply was done on an I-Pad, It's taking me ten times longer then on a simple to use standard keyboard.
I have an Ipad and you know what.... It's a PC, just a different form factor. There are a lot of things which can and will change how we do our personal computing: Virtual Apps, cloud computing, Apple, Google, WebOS(HP) and not the least Microsoft.
Steve Jobs is marketing to the faithful, but even the Iphone is a personal computer.
Steve Jobs is marketing to the faithful, but even the Iphone is a personal computer.
The 'post-PC era' may be starting, but I don't see it changing the way I work in the next three years. Since I'm not a strategic planner, when and how we implement these tools isn't my worry. I don't see these tools affecting my personal life at all.
Typing text is quite fast.
Speaking text is sometimes even slower than typing it, and in many ways is such a different medium, that it is just not replaceable by typing, just as typing is not replaceable by speaking.
Speaking text is sometimes even slower than typing it, and in many ways is such a different medium, that it is just not replaceable by typing, just as typing is not replaceable by speaking.
If you mean straight speaking, then wow.
As an intense multitasker who does a lot online with text (various IM/chat type things), and as someone who can pretty regularly type around 75-90wpm easy.. I have to say that actually talking to someone is 100x faster than typing/texting. Especially this txt-crap that kids are doing. The time in which it takes to get ideas across through even high-speed typing/chat, takes far longer, and god forbid you use any nuances that voice-timbre or body language still does vastly better.
I might.. MIGHT agree if by 'speaking text' you mean a voice->to->text software, as those take a lot of learning for each person's speech patterns. But texting/typing faster than talking? In what world?
As an intense multitasker who does a lot online with text (various IM/chat type things), and as someone who can pretty regularly type around 75-90wpm easy.. I have to say that actually talking to someone is 100x faster than typing/texting. Especially this txt-crap that kids are doing. The time in which it takes to get ideas across through even high-speed typing/chat, takes far longer, and god forbid you use any nuances that voice-timbre or body language still does vastly better.
I might.. MIGHT agree if by 'speaking text' you mean a voice->to->text software, as those take a lot of learning for each person's speech patterns. But texting/typing faster than talking? In what world?
of listening to (or reading transcriptions of) what people actually say when they speak.
We look back on it as perfectly sensible, while it's actually a horrible mess of circular phrases and nonsequiturs.
In typing, you can see what you have, and you can arrange and rearrange. It is at once fixed and malleable.
Speak? It's just amorphous. I love it, no doubt about that, but it's no good for making something fit for printing.
If you are talking about "saying out loud something already written/composed" then perhaps that's faster than typing, but then you have to already compose it to the end, and then you have to "perform" it correctly too. In the end, with all the mucking about that people will still have to do, I think typing still wins out. The visual task of putting together the pieces just correlates better with the mental task of putting together a communicative piece.
But of course, tablet could revolutionize capture and speech-recognition to the extent that it could be workable.
But that doesn't mean it would be superior to type, just a viable alternative, maybe, sometime.
We look back on it as perfectly sensible, while it's actually a horrible mess of circular phrases and nonsequiturs.
In typing, you can see what you have, and you can arrange and rearrange. It is at once fixed and malleable.
Speak? It's just amorphous. I love it, no doubt about that, but it's no good for making something fit for printing.
If you are talking about "saying out loud something already written/composed" then perhaps that's faster than typing, but then you have to already compose it to the end, and then you have to "perform" it correctly too. In the end, with all the mucking about that people will still have to do, I think typing still wins out. The visual task of putting together the pieces just correlates better with the mental task of putting together a communicative piece.
But of course, tablet could revolutionize capture and speech-recognition to the extent that it could be workable.
But that doesn't mean it would be superior to type, just a viable alternative, maybe, sometime.
Even the best of court reporters produce almost verbatim transcripts which are very difficult to read and understand. people usually don't talk the same way they write, as you say, text can be edited for clarity, while spontaneous speech cannot. Text-to-speech really doesn't work all that well and speech-to-text just plain sucks. Someday I'm sure we'll have a personal device as talented as the HAL 9000, but by then I think the entire concept of computer-as-a-tool will be extinct. We certainly won't call it a PC, or a Mac, or even an i-something. It will be as ubiquitous
as your clothes.
as your clothes.
In the visual effects industry, people said it would be decades before it turned digital.
It took about two years.
It took about two years.
Obviously, you feel like you're one of them. Me, I enjoy both trucks and sports cars--I like the hauling power when I need it, but when I want to have fun, why tool around in that big ol' thing?
In my own case, my eyes can't handle using a smart phone full time, so I think the iPad and devices on that kind of platform can really be helpful in work and play. I've seen how a simple database manager has made working for a charity easier and more reliable than a note pad, because I only enter the data once and it syncs to the desktop automatically. I've seen how even a simple photo shoot goes so much easier by downloading the raw images to the iPad for proofing with the subjects with an image large enough to be seen and recognized--not a tiny 3" square that you can't even make out any details on. I've used my iPhone to get quick directions to a store I've never visited before and my iPad to find routes to new towns that are usually faster and easier than the ones two different GPS units have recommended. In other words, mobility computing is an almost-perfect complement to desktop computing without the need to hang a 5 pound plus hunk of lead over your shoulder.
No, desktops will stick around for a while, but the format will definitely change and I believe touch will quickly become the standard, rather than the exception.
In my own case, my eyes can't handle using a smart phone full time, so I think the iPad and devices on that kind of platform can really be helpful in work and play. I've seen how a simple database manager has made working for a charity easier and more reliable than a note pad, because I only enter the data once and it syncs to the desktop automatically. I've seen how even a simple photo shoot goes so much easier by downloading the raw images to the iPad for proofing with the subjects with an image large enough to be seen and recognized--not a tiny 3" square that you can't even make out any details on. I've used my iPhone to get quick directions to a store I've never visited before and my iPad to find routes to new towns that are usually faster and easier than the ones two different GPS units have recommended. In other words, mobility computing is an almost-perfect complement to desktop computing without the need to hang a 5 pound plus hunk of lead over your shoulder.
No, desktops will stick around for a while, but the format will definitely change and I believe touch will quickly become the standard, rather than the exception.
Sometime at the turn of last century, someone predicted that computers will be so integrated into every day life that it will practically vanish from the desktop, maybe around 2020. What replaces the PC will be a matter of choice, the kind of work you do etc.
While multitouch devices like the ipad is cool, to get serious work done with it you still need that keyboard. So why buy an ipad for example when you can use a tablet pc to do all what you want and some. Bottom line, the ubiquitous pc is a die hard.
While multitouch devices like the ipad is cool, to get serious work done with it you still need that keyboard. So why buy an ipad for example when you can use a tablet pc to do all what you want and some. Bottom line, the ubiquitous pc is a die hard.
or will we call it something else? Will it be smaller? more versatile? Use less power?
How small can it get without sacrificing usability? Is the "Pocket PC" concept totally dead?
Will we be willing to give up the familiar I/O format so easily?
There have been astounding changes in almost all technologies but the interface will have to be compatible with human capabilities, or be perhaps a direct brain interface. That, despite promising research, is a long way off.
How small can it get without sacrificing usability? Is the "Pocket PC" concept totally dead?
Will we be willing to give up the familiar I/O format so easily?
There have been astounding changes in almost all technologies but the interface will have to be compatible with human capabilities, or be perhaps a direct brain interface. That, despite promising research, is a long way off.
where you get all your applications online, use a device like a smartphone, tablet that doesn't have an installable operating system like Windows, OSX, Linux [key word installable].
The the biggest reason is the monthly charge business model. Users and that term users includeds business and consumers pay an montly fee per individual to access the applications to use.
Broadband has made this possible and there's where the IT industry is heading. No more desktops, rather through broadband, the IT providers get a steady monthly revenue stream that amounts to enormous sums of money that rival insurance companies and telecom providers.
If Apple, Microsoft, Intel, HP get anywhere near the 5 to 10 million monthly subscribers @ $25.00 each per month. Do the math.
That's why there will be an end to the PC era. Don't need it to run the apps, just pay the fee.
But there will be PCs or Macs. There will be those who can't afford the montly payment or are wise enough to consider paying for n operating system, then not having to spend any money again for the next 3 to 4 years as better than paying $300.00 per year [$25.00 per month] for the service.
The the biggest reason is the monthly charge business model. Users and that term users includeds business and consumers pay an montly fee per individual to access the applications to use.
Broadband has made this possible and there's where the IT industry is heading. No more desktops, rather through broadband, the IT providers get a steady monthly revenue stream that amounts to enormous sums of money that rival insurance companies and telecom providers.
If Apple, Microsoft, Intel, HP get anywhere near the 5 to 10 million monthly subscribers @ $25.00 each per month. Do the math.
That's why there will be an end to the PC era. Don't need it to run the apps, just pay the fee.
But there will be PCs or Macs. There will be those who can't afford the montly payment or are wise enough to consider paying for n operating system, then not having to spend any money again for the next 3 to 4 years as better than paying $300.00 per year [$25.00 per month] for the service.
"That's why there will be an end to the PC era. Don't need it to run the apps, just pay the fee."
Why would I pay a recurring rental fee for an app when I could buy it once and have it regardless of my web connection?
Why would I pay a recurring rental fee for an app when I could buy it once and have it regardless of my web connection?
The publisher/developer has every right to deny your use of the application, should you choose to misuse it and they discover that misuse.
Granted, people are used to the concept that once it's paid for, it's yours to use as you wish, but unfortunately, that concept is slowly fading away. Just as customizing your car can void your warranty, misusing your software can void your license. We've all seen the complaints where people have lost access to programs or content they thought they owned--and had to pay thousands of dollars to the RIAA/MPAA for content they thought they owned. I'm not saying the lease idea is the best idea, but it is the one we're having to live with today.
Granted, people are used to the concept that once it's paid for, it's yours to use as you wish, but unfortunately, that concept is slowly fading away. Just as customizing your car can void your warranty, misusing your software can void your license. We've all seen the complaints where people have lost access to programs or content they thought they owned--and had to pay thousands of dollars to the RIAA/MPAA for content they thought they owned. I'm not saying the lease idea is the best idea, but it is the one we're having to live with today.
Yeah, I know I'm only running the app under a licensing agreement. But my point is that I'm making a single one-time payment vs. multiple ongoing ones, and once that payment is made, a network connection isn't necessary for me to run the app.
As to complaints about losing access to apps, I have several I moved to a new computer and reactivated with the cooperative assistance of the vendors. Maybe one day I'll have a problem, but not to date.
As to complaints about losing access to apps, I have several I moved to a new computer and reactivated with the cooperative assistance of the vendors. Maybe one day I'll have a problem, but not to date.
Even you just said you needed their willing assistance. That's my point. You couldn't have done it without that assistance--legally.
But I will agree that 'once paid, always used' is the way I see most people using their apps. The argument that everything will be used on a 'fee' basis in the 'cloud' is unlikely to be popular until they can prove it's cheaper and more reliable in the long run. This may work for enterprise users, where their entire server farm is owned and operated outside the company, but for everyday consumers, they won't be willing to pay multiple fees. They might be willing to pay a monthly fee for access, but not a separate fee for every single app. As yet, I don't see that happening on any kind of real basis outside of certain backup and synching services like 'Go to My PC' or me.com. I do, however, see where that is becoming more common over time.
But I will agree that 'once paid, always used' is the way I see most people using their apps. The argument that everything will be used on a 'fee' basis in the 'cloud' is unlikely to be popular until they can prove it's cheaper and more reliable in the long run. This may work for enterprise users, where their entire server farm is owned and operated outside the company, but for everyday consumers, they won't be willing to pay multiple fees. They might be willing to pay a monthly fee for access, but not a separate fee for every single app. As yet, I don't see that happening on any kind of real basis outside of certain backup and synching services like 'Go to My PC' or me.com. I do, however, see where that is becoming more common over time.
The apps in question had five activations by default. Had they not had some sort of reactivation mechanism, I wouldn't have purchased them in the first place. But not everyone knows to look for that, just as they don't know to check the box for system requirements.
We work hard and long for the money we spend.
If it's a lease, there is no real TCO or ROI. Not for us. It's a few steps away from theft, these games being played.
If bankers can whine that capping their salaries makes them lose interest, they need to wake up to what they impose on their customers. For we are not 'walking wallets'.
If it's a lease, there is no real TCO or ROI. Not for us. It's a few steps away from theft, these games being played.
If bankers can whine that capping their salaries makes them lose interest, they need to wake up to what they impose on their customers. For we are not 'walking wallets'.
I'd much rather they learn how to keep their systems from being assimilated into botnets, and other appropriate cyberhygiene practices.
It will end up in the trash heap. I will never buy a new one. I buy software so I can use it offline if it requires an internet connection to work I don't use it, I return these to where they came from.
There are pirates of all kinds, and they make it hard on use honest folks. You can't even buy software with the expectation of getting a refund when you find it unsuitable for your needs.
Ain't that a crock!
Ain't that a crock!
if no one is making software that is installed and can be used "offline" for a desktop what are you going to do?
While "offline" means not connected connected to the internet, IT software and hardware mfgs are going the "connected" route. While you will be able to buy applications, they aren't applications like we know today. They are apps like you get from Google apps Droid apps or apple apps.
That's the future of computing and the makers are going to force us to go there whether we like it or not.
While "offline" means not connected connected to the internet, IT software and hardware mfgs are going the "connected" route. While you will be able to buy applications, they aren't applications like we know today. They are apps like you get from Google apps Droid apps or apple apps.
That's the future of computing and the makers are going to force us to go there whether we like it or not.
since there are other things I'd rather fiddle with if we, in a "free market", are being forced to do something we shouldn't.
"if no one is making software that is installed and can be used "offline" ... the makers are going to force us to go there..."
Vendors sell what the market buys. Econ 101.
Vendors sell what the market buys. Econ 101.
I bought this game recently, I wont trash it publicly but valve is the publisher and I am sure these guys put a lot of work into it. I appreciate that they want me to pay to play with their toys. But that's not my point I bought the DVD for $55 and went home to install it like a kid on Christmas morning only to find out that only the steam client was on the dvd and I had to have internet to install the game, and then download a 3+ gig "patch" (the game). Furious is not the word I think I would choose to describe my state. The DVD was broken, placed in the case and shipped to the publisher with a note. "I bought this game and all I got was this stupid dvd with steam on it" with a copy of my receipt. I have gotten no reply since march.
As for the cloud, we are so behind the curve in broad band, reliability, speed but mainly availability ( I live on the corner of BFE and RTN in east Texas). I think the cloud is farther off than some think.
People like tangible.
If I buy a dvd that is supposed to have a game on it and it requires the internet to run. I just wont buy it. What really torqued my head-bolts was it was not plain that I was buying a almost blank dvd and that I had to download the whole fluxing thing on my limited speed, pay per kb "broadband" card....
As for the cloud, we are so behind the curve in broad band, reliability, speed but mainly availability ( I live on the corner of BFE and RTN in east Texas). I think the cloud is farther off than some think.
People like tangible.
If I buy a dvd that is supposed to have a game on it and it requires the internet to run. I just wont buy it. What really torqued my head-bolts was it was not plain that I was buying a almost blank dvd and that I had to download the whole fluxing thing on my limited speed, pay per kb "broadband" card....
'RTN'? I've been to BFE any number of times, but I must have come by a different trail.
I have bought some retail steam games, it came with the game on the disc, just no patches. The install itself failed horribly for The Last Remnant, but other than that.
I noticed Assassins Creed 2 had an ominous internet requirement on the back of the box, so I didn't buy it, I'll get it on steam, at least then I know what the internet requirement will be.
I noticed Assassins Creed 2 had an ominous internet requirement on the back of the box, so I didn't buy it, I'll get it on steam, at least then I know what the internet requirement will be.
the game never installed even though I tried to run the install of SC2, it wouldn't without steam and its huge almost 3 gig "patch" that took the majority of the weekend to download on the wireless broadband modem. It my companies and its unlimited, but 18 hours is unreal to install a game. and that was my point. Valves drm schema, is ok for some ppl who have dedicated internet but those that don't are left out in the cold. Same for cloud apps. When speed increases significantly and availability becomes second nature I think cloud computing would be mainstream in 5 to 10 or so years maybe. The game industry really drives innovation in many respects. on line game streamers like http://www.gaikai.com/ will live or die based on net availability and reliability. If it doesn't work people will walk away.
This way it won't download patches or require internet access.
Steam games are saved to
C:\program files\steam\steamapps\common\%gamename%
To change which drive it uses, you gotta uninstall and reinstall steam to a different drive.
Steam games are saved to
C:\program files\steam\steamapps\common\%gamename%
To change which drive it uses, you gotta uninstall and reinstall steam to a different drive.
I just wanted to pop the dvd in, load the game and play for the whole weekend. instead i got some gardening done. Righteous indignation aside, I guess I felt I didn't get what I paid for. I guess those were the good old days. Actually I think the good old days were when I installed dune 2 on my 386 off of 8 floppies and it ran fast! Those little stick guys legs were blurring. Does anyone even remember lan parties?
We kept having those, right thru college 
.
It was the closest thing us geeks had to a "get together".
Sadly, those days are gone, stores no longer stock PC games, and services like Steam are your only hope.
Good thing is, Steam games are often 20% or more cheaper than store MSRP.
.It was the closest thing us geeks had to a "get together".
Sadly, those days are gone, stores no longer stock PC games, and services like Steam are your only hope.
Good thing is, Steam games are often 20% or more cheaper than store MSRP.
there will be many, many geezers like myself who will never be comfortable leaving all my data with some company who may not exist next month - for any number of reasons not necessarily profits. The potential for hacking an always-online computer is enormous.
Then there is the necessary bandwidth issue. It's not infinite, you know, and major slowdowns, dropouts and complete failure will become problems that would probably have many choosing to go back to their hard drive-based computer for simple reliability and security.
OK, I talk too much.
Then there is the necessary bandwidth issue. It's not infinite, you know, and major slowdowns, dropouts and complete failure will become problems that would probably have many choosing to go back to their hard drive-based computer for simple reliability and security.
OK, I talk too much.
In less they make Laptops,tablets and smart phones with the ability to custom build then.
So keep dreaming the tower is going nowhere. Look at TV's Almost 85 years the same only with color added in the late 60's. Yes I know that now they have flat screen and HD. Really HD and 3D are the only big things to happen. They only just dropped Analog in 2009.
Long Live Towers. (Oh unless you don't now how build one).
Ya there is always Walmart you can go to....
So keep dreaming the tower is going nowhere. Look at TV's Almost 85 years the same only with color added in the late 60's. Yes I know that now they have flat screen and HD. Really HD and 3D are the only big things to happen. They only just dropped Analog in 2009.
Long Live Towers. (Oh unless you don't now how build one).
Ya there is always Walmart you can go to....
Up until 2009 American broadcast television was chained to a broadcast standard codified in 1941 or thereabouts. The computer world is something completely different. We'll see and it's gonna be fun
but they are becoming obsolete. I see them eventually being for gamers and guys (or girls) who like to tinker. I think that mobile computing is changing to meet the real needs of the average person. You can even attach your PDAs to projectors and do presentations from your mobile device.
So far, those aren't dead yet either.
- Keyboard Shortcuts:
- Prev
- Next
- Toggle
