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HTML5 certainly can and will be part of the "app" equation, as long as it's not just a mobile skin for a current site.

As for the splintered environment - that's where developers and small teams of developers will thrive by making an app experience that translates between three different screens (PC, mobile, and eventually TV) and across different platforms. That will be the premium work.

HTML5 could be an enabler, but that's backend sausage-making stuff. What really matters will be the developers that can deliver this three-screen unified experience.

No matter what, HTML5 will definitely play a role in making Web sites themselves more app-like.