1) I have seen first hand (as a developer myself) how some tools do indeed reduce the need for developers. Sure, it means that maybe the same number of developers will just be doing even more work. It depends on the organization. If the "I" in ROI drops, then it is forseeable that the number of projects done goes up.
2) The end-user part of development that BA's and SE's do can definitely be done offshore. But it's a sucker's game. So far, video conferencing, conference calls, etc. have not done a good job at replacing the benefits of face-to-face. There's something unexplainable about it, but if you've ever worked with remote workers, you know exactly what I mean. When designing applications like someone who sells software/services would (as opposed to custom programming for a client), I think that it is quite likely to see even more of this occurring overseas. There is less contact with customers and end users. In the long term, though, there will be much more growth domestically for these kinds of jobs than routine, 40 hours a week programming.
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