I agree that we are at an early stage, however I do not think it is as early as many seem to portray. Apple has had their app store for over 3 years, a long time in tech. Android is just starting, but seems to want to follow similar route.
Windows Mobile, Palm, Symbian and others have had all kinds of apps available in software repositories other than some "company site", and despite some peoples dire warnings of doom and disaster by using "non-approved" app stores to obtain apps, I don't remember too many tales of actual malware being spread.
Perhaps the freedom to release your works yourself if you desire, or through other "mobile friendly sites", like the old shareware days (remember those?) would be of more benefit, allowing the developer to choose how their apps are delivered.
If your app is good, and ZDNet wants to include a shareware version, to use an example, that could result in great exposure and potential sales.
Maybe it's time to drop the "App Store" model and do something better.
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to generate and own a new concept for the market in terms of an application, I guarantee the rules would be changed immediately to make sure you were the last....
As USB expands PnP (plug and play) between systems the classic birds nest of cables and switches fade. WiFi replaces LAN/ TokenRing/ DECNet wires. People buy computer hardware for entertainment to watch ipTV or listen to MP3s, etc.
While the hardware can self assemble itself, the data can not. Developers and programmers are critical to conjouring up the data poured into the black cauldron of laptop or blade server. Programmers, D.B.A.s, security and privacy experts have, IMO, growing work.
Why? Who is happy with just their data? Its much better when computers share/exchange or work with each other ("deja vu"?).
As Bill Gates said "A computer without an OS is a 'brick' ." With so many new 'bricks' comming out there will be lots to develop and build upon. "Yea, there is an app for that" - comming soon
While the hardware can self assemble itself, the data can not. Developers and programmers are critical to conjouring up the data poured into the black cauldron of laptop or blade server. Programmers, D.B.A.s, security and privacy experts have, IMO, growing work.
Why? Who is happy with just their data? Its much better when computers share/exchange or work with each other ("deja vu"?).
As Bill Gates said "A computer without an OS is a 'brick' ." With so many new 'bricks' comming out there will be lots to develop and build upon. "Yea, there is an app for that" - comming soon
Just check out the NY Times link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/07/business/economy/07jobs.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th
First the IT and "programmer" jobs go over. Then they become sources of innovation and drag the high level jobs with them overseas. Worse, it's not just India any more but Russia and China adding more and more highly educated talent to their job pools.
Now Americans get to live more cheaply off overseas goods, but even that doesn't work if there's not enough jobs in the states anymore.
I'm afraid all I can see right now is the downward spiral for the US. They don't hire entry level talent any more because those jobs are easy to get done overseas. College students go into other professions because they either see or fear the lack of jobs in IT and Engineering. I see lots of companies asking for Developers with 10+ years of experience, but nothing less will do. So an entire generation of IT and Developers will disappear and then Corporate America will be forced to outsource the remaining jobs too.
So the future looks bleak from my standpoint if you live in the US. Best bet is to find a job requiring a government security clearance or perhaps Healthcare -professions resistant to outsourcing. Or skip most of the tech skills entirely and focus on acquiring project management skills so you can find a job coordinating the outsource teams.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying all the jobs will go overseas. Many will stay in the US and employ those willing to make minimum wage -at least until the standard of living rises around the world and finally eliminates most pools of cheap labor -say in 50 to 100 years.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/07/business/economy/07jobs.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th
First the IT and "programmer" jobs go over. Then they become sources of innovation and drag the high level jobs with them overseas. Worse, it's not just India any more but Russia and China adding more and more highly educated talent to their job pools.
Now Americans get to live more cheaply off overseas goods, but even that doesn't work if there's not enough jobs in the states anymore.
I'm afraid all I can see right now is the downward spiral for the US. They don't hire entry level talent any more because those jobs are easy to get done overseas. College students go into other professions because they either see or fear the lack of jobs in IT and Engineering. I see lots of companies asking for Developers with 10+ years of experience, but nothing less will do. So an entire generation of IT and Developers will disappear and then Corporate America will be forced to outsource the remaining jobs too.
So the future looks bleak from my standpoint if you live in the US. Best bet is to find a job requiring a government security clearance or perhaps Healthcare -professions resistant to outsourcing. Or skip most of the tech skills entirely and focus on acquiring project management skills so you can find a job coordinating the outsource teams.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying all the jobs will go overseas. Many will stay in the US and employ those willing to make minimum wage -at least until the standard of living rises around the world and finally eliminates most pools of cheap labor -say in 50 to 100 years.
What do you guys think is the development tool that we should learn?
One of the few benefits of being old is that I have seen and heard all this before.
In the '80s when I was IT service manager for an automotive parts group we had a rash of IT freelancers in the company who bought PCs and ZXs and goodness knows what out of their petty cash on the basis we were too slow to meet their business needs. Trouble is, as soon as data were lost because they broke or the application failed we were expected to fix them, which we didn't. And more recently I was tasked to sort out the plethora of unofficial web sites set up by untrained enthusiasts in the user departments. One was found when the IP address that the user had spoofed was legitimately allocated to a network printer, causing the web site on a PC under a desk in Manchester to fail. Again we were held responsible for the failure to produce management accounts and again we refused to help.
This article makes the common error of confusing technology with service. Yes, the technology is comparatively cheap to buy; the problem is information technology is ?deferred design?; it is only useful when the application is added. The problem with this is that users are unreasonable and insist that the technology continues to function. There is a risk to the business if the technology fails. In my experience too many ?developers? have a habit of throwing some half considered development over the wall for IT service to sort out and they are in the pub celebrating before the problems start.
Somebody has to evaluate the acceptable level of risk, then ensure that the backup services are in place to alleviate the risk to that level. Where I come from this is the IT department. This may not be how the CIOs who were surveyed see themselves but if they do not choose the technology and manage the ongoing risk of using it then somebody else will have to, and they will be doing IT's job when they should be doing their own.
In the '80s when I was IT service manager for an automotive parts group we had a rash of IT freelancers in the company who bought PCs and ZXs and goodness knows what out of their petty cash on the basis we were too slow to meet their business needs. Trouble is, as soon as data were lost because they broke or the application failed we were expected to fix them, which we didn't. And more recently I was tasked to sort out the plethora of unofficial web sites set up by untrained enthusiasts in the user departments. One was found when the IP address that the user had spoofed was legitimately allocated to a network printer, causing the web site on a PC under a desk in Manchester to fail. Again we were held responsible for the failure to produce management accounts and again we refused to help.
This article makes the common error of confusing technology with service. Yes, the technology is comparatively cheap to buy; the problem is information technology is ?deferred design?; it is only useful when the application is added. The problem with this is that users are unreasonable and insist that the technology continues to function. There is a risk to the business if the technology fails. In my experience too many ?developers? have a habit of throwing some half considered development over the wall for IT service to sort out and they are in the pub celebrating before the problems start.
Somebody has to evaluate the acceptable level of risk, then ensure that the backup services are in place to alleviate the risk to that level. Where I come from this is the IT department. This may not be how the CIOs who were surveyed see themselves but if they do not choose the technology and manage the ongoing risk of using it then somebody else will have to, and they will be doing IT's job when they should be doing their own.
...that software that hasn't been carefully designed and thoroughly tested can (and probably will) still break, especially when the managers won't let you test the changes properly before putting those changes into production. Unfortunately you're right.
The other is confusing an enthusiastic amateur knocking up a data island, with an enthusiastic professional trying to add a new node to the IT system.
The only disadvantage is that they are amateurs so it can be managed by employing a professional to facilite and oversee, avoiding the 'erm obvious pitfalls that mean to do our job profesionally we have to say no.
I got this instituted at one place after some poor fool asked me to attached his data to the main product database and he hadn't collected the product identifier, which did make things a tad difficult.
Traditionally IT being under resourced is often a bottleneck on getting things done unless someone important OKs the funding, and that's why individual departments go off on one. The need is real though, trying to stop it, or continual saying no is a waste of effort, so the best bet is to help them help us.
The only disadvantage is that they are amateurs so it can be managed by employing a professional to facilite and oversee, avoiding the 'erm obvious pitfalls that mean to do our job profesionally we have to say no.
I got this instituted at one place after some poor fool asked me to attached his data to the main product database and he hadn't collected the product identifier, which did make things a tad difficult.
Traditionally IT being under resourced is often a bottleneck on getting things done unless someone important OKs the funding, and that's why individual departments go off on one. The need is real though, trying to stop it, or continual saying no is a waste of effort, so the best bet is to help them help us.
Jason, this editorial essay presents a short-sighted vision of the future of IT, and it over-simplifies the necessary considerations our colleagues must factor into their career planning decisions.
Researchers continue to expand IT in concept and application. Before us lies a decade of exponential innovation, and IT professionals who maintain competency in the specialty of their choice will continue to realize success and achievement.
Career planning and professional development will assist the authentic IT professional in reaching his or her professional and personal goals; I am interested in reading editorial essays that help me grow, and help me manage my stress.
Woody Fairley CCNA, MCITP, CCP
Researchers continue to expand IT in concept and application. Before us lies a decade of exponential innovation, and IT professionals who maintain competency in the specialty of their choice will continue to realize success and achievement.
Career planning and professional development will assist the authentic IT professional in reaching his or her professional and personal goals; I am interested in reading editorial essays that help me grow, and help me manage my stress.
Woody Fairley CCNA, MCITP, CCP
While I disagree with the premise, if IT leaders start letting developers have some real traction in the industry, I wouldn't look that particular gift horse in the mouth....
Most of my stress comes from not being allowed to do the job properly, and of course being blamed for the result.....
Most of my stress comes from not being allowed to do the job properly, and of course being blamed for the result.....
I agree with you Tony, good IT Leaders empower their employees, and good IT leaders develop their employees to also be good IT leaders, in a perfect world.
Woody Fairley CCNA, MCITP, CCP
Woody Fairley CCNA, MCITP, CCP
I AM ON TECHNOLOGY HEELS TO GET IT DONE FOR THE IT RRRRRRRS GO IT
last at most two years, so have a fallback plan...
I am a software developer. Yes, technology empowers me. I am not going to be an employee again. I am going to start a little business, with 500 millions potential customers. It's very basic. Every developer could have done it, it's a simple wiki for everybody, soon in beta, if 0.1% of the users pay for it, the 99.9% get it for free, that's because it is so cheap to produce, it's called SimpliWiki, http://simpliwiki.com
Note: I am 44, I knew this would eventually happen, computers are amplifiers, doubling their prower every 18 months, per Moore's law.
Note: I am 44, I knew this would eventually happen, computers are amplifiers, doubling their prower every 18 months, per Moore's law.
It would be a horrible world if everything was running Android or iOS.
The conclusions are more or less right, but for more or less the wrong reasons. See my response here: http://apchamberlain.blogspot.com/2010/09/shadow-it-is-symptom-not-disease.html
It IS a good time to be a developer. We still are in a pre-industrial age of coding, and the shorter lifecycles and continuing poor product quality of (most) apps will create an increasing demand for good, new... and quick. Quick is what will keep many jobs onshore, people close to markets and customers will always have a niche against the wannabe industrial-style offshore coding factories.
But to suggest all other IT is in decline is just plain unsupportable. Every year I've been in IT (30 years now) I've heard people promising to cut unit costs year-on-year... or maybe after the bubble of investment. Never happens. Even when the technologies shrink in price, like storage, people just want even more of it. We still buy, steal or get gifted technological tools that are plain awful to use. Usability has a long, long way to go before technology delivers the promises of three decades ago.
Meanwhile everything we see, think and hear can be digitised. So there's still a long way to go before it is, or even could be, but the trend is relentless.
But we still have cludgy, buggy, unintegrated, incompatible, form-factor locked-in tools. We need even MORE IT system/database administrators, business analysts, integrators, architects and most of all coders. Which it is why everyone in IT who wants to ride the dragon has a rosy future to look to.
But to suggest all other IT is in decline is just plain unsupportable. Every year I've been in IT (30 years now) I've heard people promising to cut unit costs year-on-year... or maybe after the bubble of investment. Never happens. Even when the technologies shrink in price, like storage, people just want even more of it. We still buy, steal or get gifted technological tools that are plain awful to use. Usability has a long, long way to go before technology delivers the promises of three decades ago.
Meanwhile everything we see, think and hear can be digitised. So there's still a long way to go before it is, or even could be, but the trend is relentless.
But we still have cludgy, buggy, unintegrated, incompatible, form-factor locked-in tools. We need even MORE IT system/database administrators, business analysts, integrators, architects and most of all coders. Which it is why everyone in IT who wants to ride the dragon has a rosy future to look to.
when will people understand that software development has nothing to do with industrial production.
Sigh.
Sigh.
This text is wrong:
"But that revolution is over. The technologies are deployed. The users are trained. The data centers are built. In recent years, no new IT innovations have arisen that can transform businesses the way corporate networks or email groupware or the Web did a decade ago. Nearly everything IT is doing now is tweaking and incremental upgrades to existing technologies."
Because there is much more to add. It's just beyond your mental abilities. This is common mistake in technology...
"But that revolution is over. The technologies are deployed. The users are trained. The data centers are built. In recent years, no new IT innovations have arisen that can transform businesses the way corporate networks or email groupware or the Web did a decade ago. Nearly everything IT is doing now is tweaking and incremental upgrades to existing technologies."
Because there is much more to add. It's just beyond your mental abilities. This is common mistake in technology...
It's real and the reason is that "developers" who used to be parochial, be hidden in basement rooms, and hump out C++ code, has morphed into those who manage the development process. In ten years we have gone from "waterfall" where wiser IT heads and system analysts dictate detailed, immutable specs to an "agile" scenario where those entering lines of code meet with marketing literally on a daily basis and demonstrate their products frequently.
This methodology, which because it is successful has many parents, each guru with their own cute name for how we develop, has dramatically shrunk delivery times and raised quality. That same philosophy has pervaded many organizations where instead of being a title, the "head of IT" is a real manager that has to be quick on his or her feet to actually manage -- the interplay of developers and product owners. Wait, it gets worse -- in many cases those creating the product may not even work for them and ... the ground changes every day thanks to the likes of Steve Jobs.
So yeah, it is the day of the developer, but if managers get with the program, there is also a bright future for those IT execs who embrace change and demonstrate they can deliver the amazing results that our present tools and developers make possible.
This methodology, which because it is successful has many parents, each guru with their own cute name for how we develop, has dramatically shrunk delivery times and raised quality. That same philosophy has pervaded many organizations where instead of being a title, the "head of IT" is a real manager that has to be quick on his or her feet to actually manage -- the interplay of developers and product owners. Wait, it gets worse -- in many cases those creating the product may not even work for them and ... the ground changes every day thanks to the likes of Steve Jobs.
So yeah, it is the day of the developer, but if managers get with the program, there is also a bright future for those IT execs who embrace change and demonstrate they can deliver the amazing results that our present tools and developers make possible.
Ok... I hear ya but how do I stay in the game? I have been an IT Pro (Sys Admin / Engineer) for nearly 15 years. I have an IT degree but there were only a hand full of programming courses. I have several IT certifications (CISSP, MCSE, MCITP, ITIL, etc) but none directly related to hands-on coding. The most "real" coding that I have done is writing scripts. I have considered going back to school to get a software engineering degree and pursue the PMP. Where I start in order to stay relevant?
I think we're heading towards a scenario where 'consumer' software will not need developers anymore (not on the immediate short term , but we're accelerating towards that) - There will be a closed loop of sophisticated end users using 'smarter' tools that generate their computing needs,with good exposure and delivery mechanisms (i.e. the Web) . Developers are benevolent enough to write software that will eventually replace them for the larger share of the market . So wide-spread , adaptable general-purpose software will be a product of business users directly - Making useful functional software will become everybody's game - no coding required.
I've seen the future - much less developers than today , with most doing specific-purpose software packages and infrastructural work (data manipulation,communication protocols , security...), consumer software will be consumer-created , not consumer driven . efff - programming career is already short , just like a professional athlete ,or a prostitute - The worst of it will be 10 years from now , there will be too many developers still around and too many power business users,tough times to come .It will eventually be corrected , as per my prophecy.
I've seen the future - much less developers than today , with most doing specific-purpose software packages and infrastructural work (data manipulation,communication protocols , security...), consumer software will be consumer-created , not consumer driven . efff - programming career is already short , just like a professional athlete ,or a prostitute - The worst of it will be 10 years from now , there will be too many developers still around and too many power business users,tough times to come .It will eventually be corrected , as per my prophecy.
and change is part of the business model.
So if you had this super duper no developers needed software, what are they going to sell you next? What do you need a version 2 for? If saturate the market and then go bust was the way forward we'd still be driving around in Model Ts.
The next point is how complex would this super duper application be. How much would you have to know about it in order to make it meet the current needs? It would just be a change of language wouldn't it?
People have been trying to sell this particular panacea since the first 2GL came out, programmers became programmer/analysts which then got renamed developers. Programming didn't go away it just changed.
In ten years time maybe we'll be AI psychiatrists but we'll still be about...
Programmng / analysing / developng is a skill not a tool.
So if you had this super duper no developers needed software, what are they going to sell you next? What do you need a version 2 for? If saturate the market and then go bust was the way forward we'd still be driving around in Model Ts.
The next point is how complex would this super duper application be. How much would you have to know about it in order to make it meet the current needs? It would just be a change of language wouldn't it?
People have been trying to sell this particular panacea since the first 2GL came out, programmers became programmer/analysts which then got renamed developers. Programming didn't go away it just changed.
In ten years time maybe we'll be AI psychiatrists but we'll still be about...
Programmng / analysing / developng is a skill not a tool.
I'm sorry but I just don't see what possible App 'Joe???s Garage down the street' could ever want that isn't already on his desktop!
Development skills are now 10-a-penny. India and China have flooded the market. The developer is not the man who will make the money, it is the businessman who has the idea and funds it. Hourly rates for developers has plummeted and will continue to. It is the time of the project manager....
By looking at the history of most software giants, starting from it's early days to recent years, all have been founded by developers: facebook, google, apple, microsoft, twitter, etc. Unfortunately, for managers, they are a resource for the developer: keeps track of time. Sure, small companies see software as any other sort of production. But these companies are neither great, nor successful.
Even tough there are many developers coming from China and India that doesn't mean that all of them are good. Experience is an asset in developers and newly graduated developers from anywhere aren't that great.
Of course good PMs should know that, and at least in my experience successful PMs are always backed up by great developers.
Of course good PMs should know that, and at least in my experience successful PMs are always backed up by great developers.
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