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-1 Votes
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Contributr
More and more applications are being built with tools that significantly reduce the need for developers. US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates a 3% *DECLINE* in "programmers" between 2008 and 2018, and I am inclined to agree. *Programmers* are an increasing commodity. As systems follow standard patterns more and more closely and better frameworks exist to implement those patterns, demand for developers drops on a per-project basis. Add to that the competition from offshore, and being a *programmer* is a losing proposition.

The real opportunity for the foreseeable future is in software engineering and business analysis. You have to have hands-on with end users and add value to the process. Being the person who translates that vision into reality is a bad career choice.

J.Ja
I've worked in smaller IT shops where the software engineer was the business analyst who was also the developer who (in my case) was also the DBA.

If your software engineer/business analyst is also the person writing the code, I think there are huge benefits. You simply don't lose as much in translation.

I believe that that combined type of developer job will, in fact, be a big deal over the next decade. That type of person makes a huge difference.

-mark
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Contributr
I'm with you on the blended developer. I'm one myself, and I take it a step further by also doing sys admin and networking. Being a programmer helps me run the systems better (I know how to track down problems and understand error messages) and knowing the systems helps me write better code. I also agree that few understand the distinction between a "programmer" and a "software engineer" but it is a critical distinction when you talk about the job market's future. People who don't know better are going to end up as "programmers" and end up on the short end of the stick when they should be focused on being a "software engineer".

J.Ja
The biggest problem with "doing it all" is that this only works in relatively small companies. As companies get larger and larger they start segregating the work. IT (i.e. maintenance, installation/etc of the company network and computers) is seen as being totally separate from development and it is this "IT" that gets outsourced. HR, Benefits, all gets outsourced.

The REAL problem is that companies simply do NOT realize that there are substantial benefits to be had from having the people who DESIGN the software to be the same OR VERY CLOSE TO the people who WRITE it. Writing specs that are interpreted by people in India is a recipe for disaster. I have personally seen this fail multiple times, however, the "manager" who started the project had since been promoted for "saving" so much money and the fact that the project went over budget (even over the budget we had when all development was still in the US) gets buried so no one sees it.

This is the reality of business - it's screw everyone else before they can screw you. Pure capitalism at it's finest...
Where it fails is in meeting corporate management desire to have their own little empire.

Aided and abetted by us as well. You don't have to be a genius to realise if your manager's niche goes, so do you....

Ever heard a QA Manager argue against writing better code, because it's too expensive.....
sad
Substitute the word capitalism with the word humanity and I think you will be closer to the mark.
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Almost right
davotnz@... 24th Jul 2011
BobP64 - It's even less recognized by those who have influence in companies, that writing software is designing.
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> I also agree that few understand the
> distinction between a "programmer" and a
> "software engineer"

Maybe the reason why so few understand the difference is because there really is no difference. The distinction between terms such as "software developer", or "programmer", or "software engineer" are made only in your own head. If all three terms are used to describe someone who inputs code to produce applications, then it makes no difference what you call them. A rose by any other name, and such.

This is no different from the "title wars" of the last decade, where everyone in the I.T. business tried as hard as they could to outdo each other and make themselves sound more important and more relevant than they actually were. "Chief Technology Officer", my ass. It's a glorified way of saying "Systems Administrator".

When you walk into a Subway to get a sandwich, do you think of the person behind the counter as a "Sandwich Artist"? That's their actual job title, in case you didn't know. But now that you know, does it impress you? Does it make any difference to the quality of your sandwich if the person is known as a "sandwich artist" or simply a "cashier"?

When I was in grade school, the janitor used to be called a "janitor". Today, the exact same guy doing the exact same job is called a "Custodial Engineer".

In hotels, remember when they used to be called "cleaning ladies" or "maids"? Today, the same person doing the exact same job is called an "Environmental Services Aide".

Remember when the guy driving the truck once a week to collect garbage was called the "garbage man"? Today, the same guy doing the same job is called a "Waste Management and Disposal Technician".

Remember when your accountant used to be called an "accountant"? Today, that same accountant is a "Financial Asset Analyst".

I could continue with a list of bogus job titles long enough to fill a book, but you get the idea. So if you want to make yourself feel more important by calling yourself a "Software Engineer" instead of a "programmer", knock yourself out, but don't expect everyone out there to fall for the B.S. you're dishing out.
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Contributr
You clearly did NOT read what I wrote. There is a VERY important distinction, both in the industry and as I am using them here (their definitions as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics uses them). One just writes code. The does things like writes specifications, designs overall systems, interacts with other people in the business to determine their needs, and so on. In many smaller companies or departments this is the same person, but in a large company or development team they are VERY different people. For example, those offshore shops have a very small number of "software engineers", but they have piles of "programmers".

J.Ja
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Idunno ...
flj@... 29th Nov 2010
One might call it software engineers vs programmers. Another one might just say good programmers vs. bad programmers.

You're not right about offshore shops, at least not about those in Eastern Europe. Usually, all employees have five years of study and at least a bachelor's degree in computer science or information technology. More recently, most go on studying until they get a master's degree.
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See Jason
Tony Hopkinson 7th Sep 2010
before it becomes the decade of the developer, this sort of misguided drivel has to corrected.

A better analogy wuld have been sandwich artist and chef.....
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Chefs shmefs
pickleman 7th Sep 2010
> A better analogy wuld have been sandwich artist and chef.....

It wasn't supposed to be an analogy. I was making the point that the person who makes your sandwich (the so-called "sandwich artist") is also the same person who takes your money and gives you your change (the cashier). Hence, it makes absolutely no difference what fancy title you put on a person, because underneath it all, they're doing the exact same job.
with role.

You coul call the guys in subway sandwich chefs as well.

You aren't going to see them doing seven course meals in a five star restaurant though.

Though I must thank you for proving my point that the near total ignorance of the discipline will be the biggest factor against some rise to eminence....
Back in the old days, when programmers were kings, there seemed to be plenty who were software engineers - guys who could flowchart your business process and write the COBOL or whatever. There were also programmers, probably much closer to driver developers today, who could write code that made a piece of hardware do back flips, but would probably have a negative impact if asked to turn a business process into code.

Further, there were guys who could lay out a process for programmers to develop as code, but who could not write any code themselves.

I knew people like this, and I'm rather certain the same circumstance has applied from the days of mainframes, through the micro vs. mini wars, up through today.

I think you will find the software engineer who also writes excellent code (or at least doesn't abuse code or coding frameworks) is a rarer bird than your average dude who can program.
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i very much appreciate you terms and it also happens to us.. i for myself has a title of I.T. Manager,but hey our company now has 300 employee and im not managing just the IT Dept. we evolve from being an EDP to be Information Management Service, and then BI comes now not all programmer are ready be a BI Developer, so while having that title is very much not related to the job "WHO CARES " because in our company in terms of ICT that is my TERRITORY! no one will deny it!
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Code Monkey vs Organ Grinders
gecko_1971 Updated - 29th Nov 2010
I have to say, I'm inclined to agree with alot of what is being said here, but you're making an awfully big generalisation over a whole diverse range of industries. I think there IS a definate distinction between 'programmer' and 'software engineer'. Programmers, in my opinion, are code monkeys (like myself at present). We're given a task, and we bash the keyboard until it works, and usually we don't even get to choose the platform - and do you know what - I'm very happy to be a code monkey, I love it. The Software Engineer on the other hand will take customer needs, design and develop a system and a strategy to write the system to meet those needs - on an appropriate platform, using whatever tools are necessary to do the job (see the definition of engineering). That's two completely different roles - although that's not to say someone couldn't wear both hats.
Your description of "software engineer" would more accurately describe a "system engineer".
I agree Mark (btw, good name), I also work in a small shop where I wear all hats as either primary or backup, since there are only two people in IT. There is a huge need for people like us that are willing to diversify and maintain web sites, fix PC problems, support business apps and databases, while also picking up networking, smart phones, etc.
Personally, I love this kind of variety in my work, but it isn't for everyone. You can't really become an IT pro at anything; wide knowledge and personable, that's what my boss looks for when he hires now.
i think it will help if your company tends to grow... i myself been a programmer .... ad sometimes tinkering and tweaking hardware up to network. It helps me a lot in changing hats in case you have to
mbrown:

A hit more square upon the proverbial head is a task potentially slotted for things more difficult than one may actually accomplish.

To add one additional item...stating 'generally' and 'most of the time', I would take such an individual within my organization even under circumstances whereby IT has been eradicated altogether. My experience has demonstrated such individuals tend to get things done. In this case, "things" may be defined as, well....things.

- Chris B
I agree that's going away and morphing into much more of a business analyst role.

However, there's a lot more app work arising from the desire of brands large and small to have apps (the way they used to want websites). This is going to accelerate.
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Contributr
With Web sites, there was the huge rush for the "business card" sites... the five - ten page site with a minimum amount of backend programming (say, a "Contact Us" form or maybe a simple store), and that work fed zillions of Web designers/developers from 1998 or so to 2005 (that market has substantially died, I may add). That opportunity just is not there for mobile apps. It makes sense that my local hardware store or restaurant or dentist is going to have a small site to tell me their location, specialty, and sales. It does not make sense to have a mobile app for the same. Furthermore, the splintered mobile market and the HTML 5 revolution is going to make it much more likely that folks are just going to overhaul existing Web sites to be mobile-friendly than to write apps. Why write 1 iOS app, 1 Android app, and 1 - 3 apps for the second tier mobile OS' when you can just write 1 Web site? Especially since the Web site is much more discoverable than the apps?

J.Ja
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Editor
HTML5 certainly can and will be part of the "app" equation, as long as it's not just a mobile skin for a current site.

As for the splintered environment - that's where developers and small teams of developers will thrive by making an app experience that translates between three different screens (PC, mobile, and eventually TV) and across different platforms. That will be the premium work.

HTML5 could be an enabler, but that's backend sausage-making stuff. What really matters will be the developers that can deliver this three-screen unified experience.

No matter what, HTML5 will definitely play a role in making Web sites themselves more app-like.
Most firms application bases are very mature (some might say senile sad )

Going to be like SaaS and soone the cloud, as soon as you give them the real cost for enabling your existing applications to go SaaS, Cloud, mobile, sheesh even web based, the business will think thrice and go for some crap arse compromise just t badge their stuff with the latest tech fad.
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I tend to agree..
tbmay 7th Sep 2010
It seems the real question most of us have is, "What's left to do?"
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Maintenance, typically needed when the requirements change, or someone realizes that they requirements weren't quite right in the first place.
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Get with the program
Tony Hopkinson Updated - 29th Nov 2010
Requirements never change and were always right, it's just us crappy software developers who didn't realise that we should have coded for them as well.

Lack of business alignment is the real problem.

LMAO.
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Developer
eman08 16th Jun
I agree with Jason Hiner that Justin as putting to much emphasis on the traditional corporate software role. I think Justin James is still stuck in the old days. Justin James needs to look at the Internet industry not the traditional data processing computer programming in the enterprise. By the way Computer Programmers are no longer in decline. Check the latest BLS statistics for Software Developer and Computer Programmers. It's not -3 anymore it is now job growth up to 12%.
Justin, I do agree with you when it come to large companies. For them IT was always a commodity and a way to save money. Only IT companies are an exception.

Individual consultants who write useful apps though, will be in high demand. How many people will subscribe to that behavior is questionable. However, the explosive rise of mobile apps, esp. the ones in iStore, are an attestation to the ability of young developers to grasp at opportunities.
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Naive
code4living 11th Sep 2010
"More and more applications are being built with tools that significantly reduce the need for developers."

New tools only make software development faster or more efficient. They do not necessarily reduce the number of developers. As you write code more efficiently, there will be more problems and requirements awaiting for you to implement.

20 years ago, my manager who did not know anything about programming, told me that I won't be coding C/C++ anymore after 20 years because there will already be computers cranking out these code for me. LOL.

"The real opportunity for the foreseeable future is in software engineering and business analysis. You have to have hands-on with end users and add value to the process. Being the person who translates that vision into reality is a bad career choice."

So you think that the end-user side of software engineering and business analysis cannot be done by offshore competition?
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Contributr
RE: Naive
Justin James 12th Sep 2010
1) I have seen first hand (as a developer myself) how some tools do indeed reduce the need for developers. Sure, it means that maybe the same number of developers will just be doing even more work. It depends on the organization. If the "I" in ROI drops, then it is forseeable that the number of projects done goes up.

2) The end-user part of development that BA's and SE's do can definitely be done offshore. But it's a sucker's game. So far, video conferencing, conference calls, etc. have not done a good job at replacing the benefits of face-to-face. There's something unexplainable about it, but if you've ever worked with remote workers, you know exactly what I mean. When designing applications like someone who sells software/services would (as opposed to custom programming for a client), I think that it is quite likely to see even more of this occurring overseas. There is less contact with customers and end users. In the long term, though, there will be much more growth domestically for these kinds of jobs than routine, 40 hours a week programming.

J.Ja
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Developer
eman08 15th Jun
Dude! That is mainly occurring in data processing in the IT department! Programmers are also known as Developers as the word programmer is a bit outdated.

Your facts is outdated anyway. The rise of programmers has increased from -3 to now currently 12%.

Want to know why did that change from -3 to positive 13%? It's because the demand of mobile applications like Android and iOS, Web applications has increased dramatically and the demand of developers has increased in the computer software, and Internet industry.

Another factor is that the quality of software development has been declining in India and some programming jobs are slowly being onshore back to the United States.

Get your facts right before speaking. Software Engineers are like Software Architects that design the software by gather the requirements, analysis, documentation and design. While the Programmer also known as Developers converts the blueprint software design from the software engineer in to logical code instructions, which is means starting the implementation and actual code writing process.

But some times developers that work on small teams or work for a very small company many have to do all of about functions similar to the software engineer in the software development lifecycle both in system design and development "implementation".

Programming jobs may be fading away in the Data Processing sector in IT departments of large business but it's not for the Computer systems deign, Computer software or Internet Industry. LOOK at the future for Web Developers and Software developers.
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Hope So
don@... 7th Sep 2010
I've been hoping for this decade since my consulting business dried up after Sept 11. Now I'm moving into app development for Android, iOS platforms.

To the commenter who wrote end-users will develop their own apps: have you looked at Objective C?

The Web is dead? Long live HTML 5!
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The importance of apps indeed increases and as consequence the role of the developers.
But as location matters less than ever, there will be an increasing amount of developers from low cost countries, with low cost fees. For a lot of the developers in high cost countries it will be more and more difficult to gain enough money.
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Not that I can see.
Tony Hopkinson Updated - 7th Sep 2010
The decades long drive to turn us into glorified clerks has been wildly successful.
So first, there hasn't been a lot of opportunities to ply the real trade.

Second, a lot of those opportunities have gone to glorified clerks, and they've failed horribly....

I've spent a good deal of the last decade plus 'begging' to be allowed to my job properly.

I've had some success, but only through choosing very specific opportunities. I'd say I've expended as much time on trying to get opportunities as I have on them.

I'm not sure the big boys who could effect the change in approach you allude to, actually understand what a competent developer can do.
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Remember WAP?
How significant is it today and how long did it take to die out?
Now think of shiny mobile apps....you get the picture.
Web development will not die by the true nature of people wanting their business advertised; it will just evolve. Same goes for desktop or web apps...true applications not some device specific plugs & shortcuts.

I know plenty of talented developers/programmers who could not replace toner in their printers...guess who got the support calls? Your trusty IT dept. happy
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So, for new graduates of computer science (or related fields) who are trying to find their niche within their field, what are the most prominant areas / industries / categories to get into?

I have worked in the IT Dept. for a school board (education sector) on and off over the past few years while going to school, however, their is a price freeze and it is the lowest paid sector in my area, so I am hoping to be able to branch out and not only see what else is out their, but find an opportunity, where location doesn't play much of a factor to me.

Without going into greater details, where is the best location (geographically and within the field) to be looking?
We're back to needing lots of developers because every business wants to have a custom app and the skills to build them are still niche or at least not commoditized yet.

There's no reusability yet, and a lot of effort is being wasted reinventing the wheel. So, more developers are needed.

But, I predict that once people realize that the client/server approach of an app loaded on your phone is a problem and we go back to some kind of thin-client architecture, there will be more thought given to reuse (really, how many times would you want to want to write an app that does dinner reservations).

I love the Gartner Hype Cycle, and we're at the very early stages of it with respect to mobile device apps. Are we at the :peak of inflated expectations" yet? Maybe not, there could still be more hype to come, but we're not far away from the "trough of disillusionment".

When that happens, the need for developers will dry right up. It's no different than the dot com boom and subsequent bust.
is driven by their need for something to hype.

Otherwise everybody else would think they were a waste of space as well.....
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I agree this is the age of the developer. Just as there used to be apps to help you build your own web site, there are apps to help you build your own database.

However, most of the folks who did their own web sites quickly realized that if they want to look good, they need someone familiar with web design concepts (not just print design concepts).

Same with anyone who's tried to build a complete dbs system using MS Access. Simple apps are easy but almost useless. Useful dbs and apps, like useful designs, require expertise and thought--analysis.

And you cannot outsource the all-in-one developer because now you're doing it Agilely, talking to the business owner and giving him revisions regularly and mocking up forms to demonstrate why your questions are critical. You can only outsource development if you can hand a set of requirements to a developer but that is a waste of time nowadays when it takes longer to write requirements down (and analyze to discover what won't work) than it does to just build the app and test it.
Ad came up on the right of this thread
WEB programmers 10$ an hour
www.qualityprogrammers.com

After all, why pay more.....

Crying My Arse Off.
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Yes
workerness 7th Sep 2010
I thing I would answer YES to your question !
There is a little more to the world than Mobile apps - what about working in banking and having to produce reports to clients on how their money is doing, working out how much tax to be paid (and legally minimising it), inputting into the General Ledger so the company can produce an annual report etc?

What about the people who design & code the software that is on the CD that "you just put into the drive and it goes"?

Yes, its definately going to be the decade of the Developer - as long as the developer is flexible and works out how s/he can best give the business value for money.

As for the titles, I have a degree that makes me a "Software Engineer" - I also take into account Human/Computer interaction, modularisation, potential growth etc when I'm designing and coding a solution (note - this is a SOLUTION, not just a program).
Even if the "Decade of the Developer" comes to pass, there will still be a demand for the generalist, who supports the developers' work while they continue to develop. That's not to say the nature of Help Desks and desktop support won't change; they will. But developers cannot do it all by themselves. Us Help Desk Geeks will still have a home, it just may not be as large.
...before technologies such as cloud computing and the many "plug and play" development tools out there (such as Web Services, Google Analytics, Yahoo's API's, etc.) that the entire development process will be "modularized" (is that a word...lol) so that pretty much anyone who knows how to use a computer will be able to piecemeal applications together simply by stacking pre-written code modules. Then it will truly be the end of the Developer. (guess I should go back to school to learn a new trade then, huh)
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Eh ?
Tony Hopkinson 9th Sep 2010
That's been happening for decades.
We've never been in a position where it's technically successful, financially though no argument.
Cloud etc will have zero impact on the quality of cookie cutting and shake and bake.

Which is why some of us disagree just a tad with the OP's 'erm premise.
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Agreed, but...
sdunnin@... 10th Sep 2010
You still need someone to write the "pre-written code modules". They won't write themselves. Granted that does mean a smaller number of developers overall but until smart AI code-bots are invented someone somewhere does have to produce code.
Those developers who have entrepreneurial skills will shine in this decade. Unfortunately, most will work for others. I mean 95% of them will be toiling for others.

The world will be a one huge playground with license to print money if you are entrepreneurial type with little bit of technology skill because you will be using the rest of the 95% of those developers to build your products.
you are entrepreneuring...

Hardly a new thing either.....
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