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Considering that Apple's notebook and desktop sales are staying in the double-digit growth range while everybody else's are lucky to be riding single-digit growth, the iPad doesn't seem to be eating away at Apple's sales as much as they are at the Windows-platform sales. This can be demonstrated quite clearly by looking at how rapidly Windows' has been falling in total Web usage over the last three years. Quite simply it appears that a plague has arisen that is now nibbling away at Microsoft's dominance at an ever-increasing rate and Apple is behind that plague.
I would probably agree with your analysis of first-time buyers playing with a new and different product except for the fact that the rate of sales hasn't slowed, but rather increased from roughly 1 million a month to about 1.6 million a month over 15 months. So while your final conclusion is accurate, it's due to a far different paradigm than you project.