Discussion on:

Why iPad popularity is slowing PC sales

And the PCs they already have are good enough for the next several years?

If all you do is web browsing/social media, and like the mobile experience (even just around the house), why bother with a PC? Apple was also more or less first to market, and Apple also has the "cool" factor. Also, they heavily limit just how much you can screw up the system.

What's not to like if you are in the market segment for which the iPad is a solution?

The Windows-based PC has been overkill for most consumer needs for several years, especially for non-gamers. (Heck, it's been overkill for most workplace needs too; the continued viability of three- to five-year-old systems may also be a drag on new system sales.) Plenty of devices over the years have tried to target the 'Browser Only' home market. I remember several different PC-TV devices designed for only e-mail, or later for only web surfing.

That's where I initially missed the value in the new tablet devices. I saw them as primarily competing with older Windows Tablet-based corporate productivity systems, instead of as the latest (and finally successful) rendition of consumer connectivity / entertainment appliances.

... even in the corporate world. I won't argue that it's the mobility of the product that is so attractive, though.

I'm not saying there aren't corporate uses for tablets (in general, not specific makes and models). I do consider them limited in comparison to the consumer market. I suspect sales of PCs to consumers are suffering more than sales to workplaces.

I had no feel for what Joe Homeuser wanted; I grossly underestimated the popularity of the format, especially in light of what I considered to be expensive start-up and operating costs.

Even in a recession, people have more money than brains.


I have also started seeing a lot of Pad devices around here. I still have trouble seeing a purpose to lugging them around everywhere. Maybe if they had one that folds up into your pocket, but otherwise, I see them all over in restaurants, people sit them on the table (they are usually turned off as well, I guess staring at your pad at the dinner table is considered rude).
I saw one person at starbucks actually using one, playing games.
They are a bit cheaper now though, with the shared data plans.

I've yet to see a tablet I'd actually want... Either light or hard core computing, if I am expecting to do either, I bring my laptop with me. it too is something I can't just stuff in my pocket all the time and use it for incidental use.

"The Windows-based PC has been overkill for most consumer needs for several years, especially for non-gamers. (Heck, it's been overkill for most workplace needs too; the continued viability of three- to five-year-old systems may also be a drag on new system sales.) Plenty of devices over the years have tried to target the 'Browser Only' home market. I remember several different PC-TV devices designed for only e-mail, or later for only web surfing."

And there are some pretty big-name companies that already have.

As far as I'm concerned, it is probably because there are some real power salesmen out there who know the intricacies of F.U.D. (fear, uncertainty, doubt) so well that they could sell ice cream to Eskimos. They corner the Luddite executives and sell them on just how well the iPad will improve their businesses. And right now, business is very uncertain about a lot of things.

... that Apple is not actively trying to sell to businesses, which kills your concept that "power salesmen" are selling them to weak-minded executives. These businesses are considering and adopting them because some individual(s) carried their personal one into the shop and immediately became more productive through note-taking, presentations or other use which their closed-minded compatriots couldn't imagine. We've already read how the iPad has made work much easier for the SMB operator; such benefit could amplify a large corporation's internal communications to the point that it can react more quickly and more effectively to changes in their market environment.

This holds true for the tablet paradigm itself, not just the iPad. All it takes is an open mind and the right software to become far more effective than someone stuck to a table/desk all the time.

They are from the people in the business who think it is the way to go and believe every time they see a tablet used in TV shows--they are ubiquitous on TV. That's product placement de-lux.

Many contractors use both--one to take notes when visiting clients and PC to do the real work.

I would agree that it certainly eats in to MacBook and netbook sales. Most of these iPad users most likely own and still use a desktop computer... and a laptop. It certainly appeals to certain types of people but these people are not the same as the desktop users. When I think of "PC users" I think of people who do everything on their desktop because it's better for what they need to do. They buy high-end computers and they buy them less often. These desktop PC users are not going to stop buying desktops because of the iPad. Some of them might get one and carry it around because it's easier than a laptop but they will continue to buy home PCs as well. I also think that many people ran out and bought one just because it was new. Wait for the hype to die down. These sales numbers are consistent with any new idea that Apple puts out. People buy it regardless of if they need or would use it.

Conclusion: The iPad is a secondary device. In the same category as an iPhone, Android or even the new ChromeBooks.

You have committed the No True Scotsman error. A PC user is somebody who owns a PC or works on a PC, not people "who do everything on their desktop because it's better for what they need to do." You are pretty much saying 70% of the current PC market isn't made up of PC users.

The march of tech can be described as smaller, faster and cheaper. The Minicomputer cannibalized the mainframe, but we still have mainframes today. The workstation cannibalized the minicomputer, but we still have minicomputers today. The PC cannibalized the workstation, but we still have workstations today. And the Tablets will cannibalize the PC's, and we'll still have PCs.

I am speaking about a smaller group of people. I don't know the numbers, if it's 30% of PC owners as you say. These people are those who need to get real work done that a less powerful computer simply could not do. Engineers, 3D design, professional artists, IT pros, Gamers who hate consoles. The list goes on. I tried to simplify by saying "who do everything on their desktop because it's better for what they need to do" rather than make a long list of people who would rather use a real desktop computer.

My point is that the PC has a function for real work and real play that is not yet possible from an iPad. Perhaps some day an arcitect will be able to complete building designs and landscaping by molesting a little touch screen device but I don't see that happening tomorrow.

I assure you I am not attempting to introduce "an intentional logical fallacy".

Give it a couple of years. The PC user who now runs MS Office, Lotus, SAP, Flight Simulator, etc., will be able to do all that on a pad. I saw a pad yesterday that has dual Atom processors. Ok, you say 'big deal'. I say, that's just the start. Processors are becoming smaller, faster, more capable and cheaper every year. It wasn't so long ago that an Athlon 64 was 'state of the art'. Now we have 6-core Athlons and 8-core Intels. Add to that, GPU's that process even more data at a much faster rate. Have you seen the specs on the latest Motorola Android phone? Let???s not forget that ???smart phones??? are fast becoming a replacement for your everyday laptop as we become increasingly mobile. Security issues notwithstanding, I saw an article on the Qubes OS which is perhaps the methodology used to design and construct the Chrome OS for Google???s new Chrome Netbooks. Every app is isolated from every other app, every window is isolated from every other window, and every webpage is isolated from every other webpage. This is a far better way of dealing with problems associated with mal-formed webpages, Trojans and other annoying nasties. Should your Chrome Netbook become corrupted, apparently all you need do is turn it ???off??? and restart it. It then re-loads itself with a new and clean, fully updated operating system replete with all your favorite apps. As far as anti-malware goes, well that appears to be a part of history as well. Bottom line, no more anti-virus software to eat your processing cycles or clobber your pad???s memory. I don???t know about you, but that seems a heckuva lot more useful and practical than the old ???wipe and reload??? that I/T departments used to bludgeon users with. Best of all, this whole procedure takes only as long to accomplish as the boot-up time for the Netbook takes, which as I hear is about 8 seconds. Alright, ..you can???t run Flight Simulator or play Duke Nukem (at least to my knowledge) on a Netbook right now, but when all those apps go into the Cloud you will be able to. Currently there are at least 17 games I read about that will run on a pad or Netbook. I don???t know about anyone else, but I can???t wait to ditch all the old ???luggage???.

Considering that Apple's notebook and desktop sales are staying in the double-digit growth range while everybody else's are lucky to be riding single-digit growth, the iPad doesn't seem to be eating away at Apple's sales as much as they are at the Windows-platform sales. This can be demonstrated quite clearly by looking at how rapidly Windows' has been falling in total Web usage over the last three years. Quite simply it appears that a plague has arisen that is now nibbling away at Microsoft's dominance at an ever-increasing rate and Apple is behind that plague.
I would probably agree with your analysis of first-time buyers playing with a new and different product except for the fact that the rate of sales hasn't slowed, but rather increased from roughly 1 million a month to about 1.6 million a month over 15 months. So while your final conclusion is accurate, it's due to a far different paradigm than you project.

There may be a mass exodus of rats abandoning the sinking ship helmed by the dread pirate captain Ballmer. However, I assert that the there are still many things you cannot do on a Mac because the software simply isn't there. That is my personal stumbling block. Many things I like to do cannot be done on a Mac including my work and my play. The professional software my business uses is Windows only and has a high hardware requirement. This is also true of the games I play.

I am not anti-mac. I would give it a try if I knew that I wouldn't end up emulating Windows on my Mac like many of my IT Pro friends end up doing. You certainly can't emulate Windows on an iPad, yet...

"I assert that the there are still many things you cannot do on a Mac because the software simply isn't there. That is my personal stumbling block. Many things I like to do cannot be done on a Mac including my work and my play."

Yes, it looks quite cool when you take your iPad or other tablet device into a meeting and everybody else is struggling with an old company issued laptop that drains the battery in an hour or are even using old fashioned pen and paper. Having an iPad right now makes you the coolest person in the room. This will change as more people get one but right now it's more about bragging rights than anything else.

As for productivity, I think it's still lacking and may even be detrimental in some situations. Some of those cool applications you mentioned, such as medical, still aren't there and in some cases, face signification government regulatory hurdles.

The real dirty secret though is that tablets and smartphones that have 3G/4G connectivity allow people to get around corporate firewalls to stream music, watch videos, do Facebook and Twitter and a lot of online stuff at work that is prohibited on corporate networks.

I don't like touch screens because I'm always getting them covered with peanut butter and stuff from my fingers. I prefer a mouse and keyboard so I don't have to touch the screen and potentially scratch or get crud on it. A good netbook with a nice clear screen and a small (but not too small to touch type) keyboard is, IMHO, a more useful device... and cheaper as well. You can get 3G USB NICs for your netbook too.

Keeping your keyboard clean must be a real BEAST! Glass is much easier to clean than a keyboard!