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The future of IT will be reduced to three kinds of jobs

I assume you are referring to the US only. In our market, we often act as a consultant, along with the integrator role. I can tell you first hand that companies will not step away from having an IT dept in their midst, nor will they disregard the CTO/CIO, CXX positions. If anything, the role has taken on a new life even in the past several months as corp america realizes how vulerable she is. It is obvious their thinking is circling around security. And for security, they want someone on their side, more appropriately, on their inside. Reaching out to outside resources is still going to happen. And the other two on your list are inevitable. But to shutter the concentric IT dept would not only scare most corps to their knees, their investors and insurers would demand otherwise. A healthy corporation will always demand the resource of an internal IT department, jealous for the ideals, concepts and values that only someone on your own team will have. I can sell to a corporation that we are jealous for all those things. But at the end of the day, I do not have a seat on the board, I do not take a chair at many of those meetings that a CTO/CIO would as an employee. The logistics and the comfort level are not there.

While I would quickly also submit that the IT department as we know it will continue to change, the two positions of defense and offense strategies will continue to define us. Sadly, in the age of corporate attacks, digital espionage, and patent wars, we have become an army of gate and port watchers. No doubt this will continue to change.

However, my argument would be the exact opposite of yours. Corp America seems to be drawing a close arm around their IT staff, with more respect than Ive seen in a long time. To state that they are going to be dismantled and scattered to the four winds of the corporate structure, I simply do not see happening now, nor in the foreseeable future.

I couldn't have said it better myself. I would check the batteries on my crystal ball if I were you.

Information Technology, no matter how we package and deliver it is a complex solution. It always has been and that is why it will always be important to have IT people around. I explain it like this, companies need accountants to help them understand thier financial position. They need IT people to understand thier technical position.

Changes in technology will require changes in work paterns and jobs but it will not destroy the modern IT department. Virtualization and Cloud computing will eventually reduce the headcount required in the data center for hands on server jockies but it will not eliminate it. The new compliexities in IT are related to compliance and interoperability.

Now all this said I have noticed some very bad habits practiced by several of my IT professional brethren that I feel hurts thier cause in employment longevity. I thinki it is important for us to realize that beings agents of change means we need to be willing to change as well.

Are you kidding? Corporate America is on a cost cutting binge, hates the expense of anything to DO with information tech. Respect? Ask any IBMer. And in general ANY IT job can be outsourced to India. Some firms have learned the hard lesson of outsourcing but most still believe that American IT workers are an expense line-item that can be reduced by bringing in those good Indians from CSC.

There are regulations for certain positions that require security clearances, U.S. Citizenship, etc... so, no, not all positions. Specially not security positions.

Regulatory requirements make it difficult to outsource infosec

I have seen design data for products used in weapon systems moved to overseas design centers. Even if the "security" positions don't get outsourced overseas, there is little comfort knowing that sensitive data is not really protected.

but it's not a sure thing. How many support specialists remotely expected to loose their jobs to overseas until it happened? We Americans have a hard time accepting that "foreigners" could do our jobs as well, let alone *much* cheaper. I worry that even corporate management will eventually move out on the orders of a 'bottom line" board of directors.

There is a huge migration taking place right now, of imported resources moving to the DC area, have quite a few friends making the trek. Security is a non-issue in 95% of positions.

The language and time barriers are enough to make it a nightmare. There is a lot of hoopla over this, but the fact remains that many of the companies who have gone this route have discovered to their own detriment what a disastrous choice it was. Costs didn't go down, as contract management ate up the savings of per-hour costs, and satisfaction went down - usually due to the time/language difficulties.

Outsourcing is not going to destroy the tech industry. Stupid managers? Maybe.

If you're STILL working with a company that outsources - things ARE changing.
What's the driver - poor customer service from INDIA> and most outsourcing companies don't care.
You simply cannot have facetime support from folks that don't get it, or companies that hire workers that don't get it.
I'm seeing more USA support staff on call lines, and a retention and beefing up of IT staffs with USA workers in many verticals.

and good riddance to the ignorance that IT is a cost center only

Look how much of our hardware is made overseas now. And I won't mention names ('cause you know who I mean) but certain nations are purposely ignoring international patents and copyrights now. We, for sure, will attempt to block pirated materiel from returning to the States, but most other countries who care little about our welfare will import that stuff like guns to Libya.

What about "replace the burned out hard drive on server xyz"? No jobs should be outsourced.

And "monitors, keyboards and mice ('oh my!')"?
As long as the hardware is still reacheable, someone has to do it (and must be appropiately paid to do so).

A counterperson from Radio Shack can do that part. Diagnostics they can't do, but electrics they can.

Are you kidding? And "electrics" is not a word. So try a failed SCSI drive on a PowerEdge Server in a Radio Shack sometime and also guarantee restoration of customer data in a timely fashion, and also provide a loaner system while the server is on a bench on a Sunday when there are no production loads. Pardon me, but I don't think Radio Shack can do that.

...there will be no server in the first place. The magical "cloud" will not only fulfill all of the organization's needs but save money too!

No-one left to actaully do the work, solve the problems, help the client. Only blame pushers and leeches included

Isn't IBM chinese now?

IBM is still IBM they sold the hardware division to a Chinese company and the hardware has the Lenovo name.

Although there was a day where being in IT was somewhat glorious - remember those days when speed to market on a development project was critical to competitive advantage, and delivering that project made you, your team and your boss a hero (and the company a lot of $$$)? Not today...today we have SOX, PCI, over-bloated project management (no offense to PM's - it's the process of which I speak), user's that don't know what they want - they just want you to do it, and don't want to talk to anyone but management to make their hasty, short-planned demands.

IT has become a burden to most other corporate departments because there is no shortage of process. We've created a bureaucracy that keeps anything from getting done and have basically become a technical politboro...when at the end of the day, the company still has to do business. We are the department that's considered the red-headed step child in most corporations because in the last 10 years we've removed innovation, became treated like butlers and subservients, and watched a lot of folks in charge that do nothing but foster their process laden environments to protect their empires.

I hope Mr. Hiner is on to something here. Streamlining the process down to the 3 job classifications that actually facilitate innovation would be refreshing to the corporate culture!!

I have doubts that IT itself has become the mediocre dysfunctional useless empire on its own. It is the management with their hasty, short-planned demands best described by the 1971 Stanford Research Project so aptly defined in "The Lucifer Effect".

Can't outsource to India if you have to physically touch the machine.
Maybe in another 5-7 years or so when everything is virtualized that will be possible, but right now a select few of us are safe.

No job is safe when the hourly rate in Bangalore is $2. American management LOVES that salary reduction and be damned with the cost loss and productivity dangers.

Many times people wonder why the modern youth go for drugs and booze. The parents will blame Teachers, friends, the parenthood, the religion being too strict or the law deprives them with many odd things they would want. There are no answers and many question. As buffet said "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" It is easier to go for the pill to be away from the depressing news and trying to live like a leading actor The rampage is on. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla With No Malice for any.

Judging from the other responses to this, a few of you have your heads in the sand... The 'heads of business' closely value their IT staff, so long as they can't get the same skill sets and availability cheaper. Otherwise, we're just a necessary evil.

Jason's article IS probably a bit premature. It hinges around 'The Cloud', and the 'Perfection' that are outside consultancies and external IT providers. Quite a few companies bought into these notions, driven by the promise of penny-pinching, and quickly got burned. The Cloud is a rehash of an idea that's been around for awhile, and while there are a few IT gurus out there that can seamlessly take over the IT operations for a number of different types and sizes of companies, there are WAY more that sell themselves WAY over their heads. Once the bills and complaints start rolling in, a lot of executives realize that things were much better as they were.

But this is definitely coming. 'Real corporations keep IT depts.?' Please. I can name a few large ones that have successfully transitioned, usually by just hiring the recently let go internal IT staff at a reduced salary and benefits level, to outsourcing. Instant 'expertise' they can offer that corporation, and as long as the outsource company can keep the wool over the corp.'s accounting dept.'s eyes, the more money for them. I'll be talking to a company shortly that, since I know some of their techs personally, COULD ACTUALLY DO MY JOB (albeit for more money in the long-term). 'The Cloud' IS quickly becoming a viable, and even preferred, way to do business, and in the next three to five years will probably be at the point operationally that they claim it is now.

All the prohecies or utopia or doom and gloom (depending on your point of view), seen it all before. Through all the changes real and percieved in the industry since I started, which was a good while ago, there has been a constant.
I've been out of work for three months since 1981...
What does real corporations mean anyway? IT not your core business, so what it's critical to your ability to do business.
Hire it in? Then it's their core business, they will need IT to support doing IT for others, are they going to hire that in? Russian doll time...

Could it result in economies of scale, possibly, but that just makes the people you have more critical and more valuable. All that will do is seperate the wheat from the chaff, an anathema to business. They want an abundance of raw materials, basic supply and demand...

In the next three to five years they will shoot themselves in the foot again, because they don't understand the cloud any more than they do the PC sat on their desk.
Then they'll pay us for triage.

So why should we be scared, they need people like us to get it right, and people like us when they don't....

The few that don't are usually very frustrated individuals. Sometimes it's good to duck and cover but not from a nuclear blast. You have it right but many won't see it your way.

Gee, I guess moving all those jobs to India really helped IBM keep AstraZeneca. Look that one up. $1 Billion contract cancelled early. There are always some outsourcing successes, but very very few.

It is not just premature, it is incorrect. One of the biggest drivers of 'Cloud' solutions is going to be agile solution development and integration.

That means teams of folks.

That means Zero PM roles and less prominent PMI influenced budgets that choke IT departments and hinder solution specialist from doing what the customer wants.

There is no question that a fair share of IT has been and will continue to be outsourced, however, his article related specifically to solutions that are developed internally, and frankly he is way, way off.

Agile (SCRUM, XP, TDD) are all very relevant in the conversation.

I would suggest you will begin to see an IT generalist appear in the marketplace.

Someone with Good to Great Technical Skills (Testing, System Analysis, Development/DBA etc) and a balance/blend of customer service/people skills.

Gartner and others consistently say, and even TR reported recently, there is not a shortage of IT skills, there is a shortage of IT people who can interact with the customer effectively.

See here one example...
http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/career/top-it-skills-wanted-for-2012/3503

Note the desire for PM's with a twist?

The evolution of solution development is coming, it may be glacial in movement, but when DHS announces they are going agile, you should take note!

http://www.informationweek.com/news/government/enterprise-architecture/232601660

IMHO

The ITIL instructor was horrified when I told him about Agile. See, we have this problem: Companies and Agencies want everything done faster under the premise that given the quality triangle of faster, cheaper, better -- we can do all three. How? A total lack of planning and process. Sit with your users. Bring up development screens on the spot. Let them change their minds continuously without bounds at a whim. Sure, it may take you forever to fix what they break because of the high concept ideas, but it's their money.

Professional Project Management solves the problem, but it takes FOREVER. These Generation Whine kids are going to be bored to tears and will probably wonder off and get a job elsewhere.

Where I worked, we had in house folks build a Time Track system. It took three years and cost $700,000. It crashes frequently. It only works in a specific IE Browser. There is no documentation on how it works. The employees keep having to call the help desk because of the changes. There are frequent meetings to explain the latest changes. And it is your tax dollars at work (and it's $7 million of your Federal Tax dollars to use Agile to reimplement the Sheriff Department legal system with no discernable changes or new features -- just in another computer "language").

It's a great con game, especially for greedy politically motivated managers who are a triumph of image over substance.

Gone are the days of any substantiative objective substance: It's all do it on the fly, fly by night, here today, gone tomorrow Agile programming, invented by those short sighted geniuses at Sun Microsystems.

You can't argue with success.

No wait.

Sun went out of business and was gobbled up by another mega corp originally built on what has become ITIL principles.

You don't need an Oracle to tell you who.

The IT industry has seen a rollercoaster of positions - from sys admin, operations, IT dir, CIO, development, analyst -

Corp. America is NOW finally realizing that having IT as an integral part of most marketing, sales and business operations helps that company achieve their goals
and solidify their business models. The days of "offshore everything" are gone - because it simply didn't (and doesn't) work well.

If anything, I see IT becoming more melded into a role that covers not just traditional IT, but sales, operations, marketing and continuity - even if it's not technology related.

IBM has a plan to have every offshore by 2015. About zero American employees or close to that if they can do it.

Business has a profit motive. If labor cost savings can be achieved elsewhere pack your bags or join the growling list of under employed and unemployed. Additionally in-country Asian shops import temporary or seek H1-B labor at less expense. The elderly employee presents a health insurance cost risk that can be mitigated by part-time employment and outsourcing.

I also agree, IT, is not dead, what is dead, is top level management, as far as the knowledge to provide guide lines and realistic goals to implement a given solution and that only comes from experience. Most PMs I have worked with do not have a clue to the underling tech, I have found that in order to save a penny one spends a dollar. Not a win win in these profit making dayz. So, I ask myself, how many students buy all this blog stuff, dude, get real. The bottom is what makes the top .... Know your OS, then your hardware, and topology, get your BR, up front. Then suggest.

Is there some sort of a class system here? There are also the domestic market, and unless I'm wrong, the lower scale of maintenance which will always be needed. You dont mention these people. While I am not a fully qualified technician, I know there is enough work there to not need upper level support, and fit right in where domestic support is needed. The market is probably bigger here than in the more in your face industrial support, but it is there...

With technology changing at he speed of light almost, wouldn't you think protecting customer information (both internal and external) is key. 'Thinkers' can include the hackers just licking their chops at another new portal to your data.

Security will continue to be extremely valuable, but a lot of it is going to move higher up the value chain. It's going to be more about "risk management." The really successful security professionals will develop a strong business sense to go with their deep technical knowledge. Most of the highly-skilled, highly-trained security pros will open their consultancy, work for big enterprises (government, financial sector, hospital networks), or work for big consultancies.

it could evolve into more and more hardware solutions with built-in support. Something that is already happening at least on the network edge.

I am consulting more and more startups who just don't have the money to build the traditional IT infrastructure, and cloud solutions look pretty good to many of them, for now. As they grow, they may change; but then doesn't everything?

Once again - I agree with the principles of your assessment. The landscape may look a little different, but then change has a way of making the future pliable.

for getting involved in the discussion regarding this, it is nice to see an author getting involved.

i agree to some degree with the points that you make but I think that you have gone too far. There will always be day to day task and maintenance to do. I also think that there must always be someone to monitor outside resources and do the second tier tasks, although perhaps not to the degree they do today.

I think he is premature in his over selling of these concepts. There is always a lot going on under the covers. Have you ever tried implementing a desktop virtualization project for as little as 500 users. The simpler the concept the more complex it is in implementation. Long live the IT pro.

If you want an inferior solution to a complex problem, don't give it to a team. Give it to a whole lot of individuals working independently.

When you have a physical IT department with everyone a few seconds walk away from everyone else, it's no sweat to go ask someone the best way to implement a function. Most of us geek/techies are good at sharing knowledge because then we can show off how much we know!

Jason,

While I see your point I think you may be casting to narrow a net. I am sure we are going to see reduced headcount in some sectors but there will be modest growth in others. For instance I think desk and sever side support requirements are going to continue to diminish over this next decade. They won't completely evaporate but they will change. I think you see these positions going to contract or consultant roles and are calling that our. I have seen a lot of this kind of activitiy over my career. I have to agree you it will happen.

Another thing I am noticing is the biforcation of corporate IT. It seems like many organizations are ready to outsource and cloud source thier middle tier systems but they don't have answers for first level support and for strategic design.

I hope a few folks see your article for what it is. A wake up call. We as professionals can't stick our heads in the sand and ignore the fact that our career landscape is changing. We need to embrace it and train ourselves for those next opportunities.

I look forward to your next article.

I disagree Jason. Security is not a one time exercise, but requires feet(brains) on the ground forever testing defenses, upgrading systems, and training personnel in personal risk management. The environment is changing rapidly, and needs people on-site to keep the business secure.

Outsourcing/contracting can do this, but in-house is better because you can keep IT people trained, whereas you do not know that your contractors are keeping up-to-date.

I totally agree about Security. I'm sick of trying to explain the dangers of the cloud to my larger size clients. But as a Security professional I guess the cloud is a godsend.

Only until the day before somebody in India or China penetrates your client's "cloud" environment, steals data and somebody finds out about it. And if it is critical or sensitive data, then you had better keep your Lawyer's business card in your wallet. You will be SUED. And rightfully so. I keep NONE of my client's data in the cloud, ZERO and manage all of their offsite data myself in my office on my computers that, for this purpose, are kept turned OFF 23 hours a day. Or longer. I keep a transitory hard drive with me in my bag. Hackers - try to hack this drive IN THE CLOUD when it is locked up and on a shelf.

This is exactly the way all private data should be handled.

Too bad it can't be -- at least for the most part.