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Engineer of original IBM PC declares end of PC era

All of the "outdated" tech he compared PCs to are things that the PC itself replaced: "vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT". Computers used to be made of vacuum tubes and were used as typewriters. New vinyl records are still being sold today even though most people play music through a PC at home.

The main problem I have with this rediculous assertation is that all of these old technologies have been surpassed by something better that provides the same function. I have never seen anything that can replace the PC. Smart phones? Tablets? Get real. When you need to type a letter, make a phone call, listen to music and watch a movie you can do all of these things from your PC. Sure, you could watch a moive on an embedded platform (small PC) in your TV and listen to music on an embedded platform (iPod) while making a phone call on your smart phone (another device with a PC embedded in to it). The PC may change it's name and outward appearance but do not be fooled. A laptop is just as much a Personal Computer as a smart phone is. The fact remains that some day you will want to use a keyboard. Then you will wish you had a bigger screen. Next thing you know you've got a mouse plugged in to your new device and it looks a lot more like a PC than it did a second ago. (See: ASUS transformer)

Portability is great but people will use the best tool for the job. That tool will continue to be a PC as more and more people look back and think "Why did I ever give up my full sized keyboard?"

Don't want to get into any (dirty) details but if you think about it, would you really want to say out loud everything that you now type?

Not to mention the fact that, could you imagine an office full of people all talking to their computers? It would be chaos. Then again, it would probably stop people from posting on Facebook at work!

Nah, I don't buy this myself, but the "replacements" for PCs all seem to be based on this premise. Everything is pocket sized or soon will be, ill-suited for use at a desk. But how many jobs will be spent on a train, or a restaurant, or at home? Traveling salesmen? Rare today. Reporters, yeah, sure. Mechanics, Surgeons, Plumbers? All use computers now, but not walking around at the park.
Nope, I don't think PCs are going away anytime soon. They'll be smaller, faster, more reliable, but will probably remain as recognizable at first sight as the Tandy Model II. And they'll be at home on a desk.

... for speech recognition to cope with random background noise. Coping with random background speech will be much more interesting ...

Every time someone has prescribed a provocative future, like most, I am always first to discount that possibility. Can't be. Won't happen. People won't stand for it. They won't make any money. Every incorrect prediction has propelled me to the status of inverse great oracle. Every prediction I make will go the other way. So have hope my friends!

I've been around too long. I now believe that nothing is permanent, and that everything is possible. Why not? It could happen. I've been wrong before.

So now, when someone predicts the end of the PC, I consider the possibility. The words alone can influence a new generation of hype-drivers to make it a reality.

I wouldn't like the things I refered to tongue-and-cheek, because everything I know would be turned upside down yet again. I lamented the loss of Cobol and MVS which pushed me from mainframes into those little toy PCs where you worked on files one at a time. It was never going to be any good without a punch card processor.

I never imagined all of the things we now take for granted. Cellular telephones the size of a pack of gum stuck in people's ears, cameras without film that did a dozen other things, a completely tubeless TV, cable TV/satellite channels by the hundreds with yucky channels, stun guns that launch riots, color laser printers, fiber-optic communication, a space station orbiting our home planet, telescopes in space, tyvek suits to keep people from messing clean things up instead of the other way around, jet airplanes crossing oceans non-stop without those wonderful layovers on islands, low taxes cranking up the debt, even lower interest rates with folks still losing homes, world ecomonic collapses, 3D movies in full color, planes used as bombs, antibiotic resistant diseases, genetic engineering, mass killings of humans and animals with production efficiency, the internet phenomen, body piercing.

Who would want all of this stuff? Kids. They are the engine of the economy that drives desires beyond what my poor little mind can comprehend.

We often have a choice of technolgies we want to use, but sometimes they are chosen for us by mass marketing, peer pressure and incomprehensible desires to be cool. Who knows what direction hype will send society?

Carry phones around with you all over the place all of the time? When will we get a moment's peace? Folks have highly spirited and animated conversations aloud all of the time. But instead of yelling at humans, they'll be yelling at their AI buddies? Technology won't suddenly make people sane, but maybe someone will create an app for that.

Typing hasn't always been around. It's a fairly recent invention in the grand scheme of things. The wheel and fire have been around a bit longer. We've been promised flying cars for decades and maybe it won't "burn" fuel. I have given up the notion that it will happen really soon. But it could still happen. And it also doesn't mean I have to like it.

It sure is funny when a few words can set off a firestorm of fear and denial. Good luck folks, change is coming. It's always coming. And all too often someone predicts the world is supposed to end, and despite that, most of us are still here, complaining. Misery reminds us that we are indeed still alive.

Nobody here is denying change. We are just discussing if speech input would be practical on all devices, we are not trying to halt the universe from changing :-p get a hang on yourself

How else will you correct your grammar and say exactly what you meant to say? By listening? For probably all of us, our mouths work faster than our minds. This is especially true when we are trying to be articulate and communicate precisely.

Precisely. Look it up in the Word thesaurus. Consider all of the various meanings and select the one that most exactly fits what you mean.

Then try that with your cell phone.

Beyond just regular speech, think about developers. As a developer, how will you ever be able to program without typing? Yes, technology is changing, but SOMEONE still needs to program all the apps and UIs, etc. Try coding on a cell phone...it would be a nightmare. I've got 2 large monitors for coding, and I've seen people with 3 or more, too.

I could see keyboards going virtual, the end of the physical keyboard, but not an end to typing.

Oh man, that would be great to hear developers talking in 'code' to the computer. People would think you were crazy.

NT

What do you think the older folkes think when they see youngsters passing by talking to their bluetooth devices?
Yes, it will happen, developpers will actually talk code to their computers. Why not, dont you yell your smartphone which number to dial?

for open bracket int(how do you pronounce "int" anyway?) I, no lower case i, semi colon, i is ten, no i ten, no i one zero, semi colon, i plus plus, no i ++, no i++, close bracket, open bracket((), no the other bracket "{"(I don't know what that is called)...
I quit, I'm going to be a carpenter...

The need to insert punctuation reminds me of an old Victor Borge routine. If the name doesn't ring a bell, Google it. He was a real hoot, and a d**n genius.

I don't want others to hear my thought and I don't want to SAY everything that I write. It's MUCH easier for me to simply type, edit, type, etc. Using all the available editing commands by VOICE COMMAND - sure - you can do it, but why, when it's just SO MUCH simpler - AND FASTER.

Voice recognition is fine for the drones or those who simply want to take part in social networking, but for someone who actually wants to DO SOMETHING - forget it - never happen, not until the NEURAL INTERFACE is invented!

Whoever said that most keyboard functions have been replace by a mouse, now just pretend you hear your self saying. Menu 2, menu 3, edit, delete, insert row, menu 1, font size 12, font - view all, scroll down, scroll down, arial black. Then, how would you tell the mouse to go UNDERLINE a specific section? YUK...

Add into this that many businesses that are BUSINESS RELATED now don't have offices anymore, they have cubes or BULLPENS. Trying to get everyone THERE to start talking at the same time would be, well, chaos.

Now - talk about a few people who are all near each other and have each one of them talking at their device - you would have a cackling like sound and that's about it.

So, go ahead - dream your dream.

Useful computing will continue to include manual input devices and large displays for a long time to come. Many applications, including highly technical ones, are not amenable to efficient use on small screens or text-based inputs. Voice recognition could be as comprehensive as depicted on Star Trek, but that would hardly help when designing in AutoCAD or creating/editing graphics in Photoshop. For these applications, a sensitive mouse / pen-based drawing table will remain a key input, and the biggest, crispest display will remain the primary output. Sound designers will require the best speakers available. Meanwhile, I'll concede that many apps will work adequately with tiny and low-quality I/O. Your GPS with tinny speakers would work fine with, say, Gilbert Gottfried shouting turn information, "Left. That's a left. Go Left! Left! LEFT! Turn around, you missed it, Schmuck!"

Eventually, we'll have hyper-advanced interfaces that respond directly to thoughts within our brains and display directly through the visual and auditory cortex, or bypass the limitations of the sensory focused regions of the brain with enhanced synthetic replacements. I/O will be, respectively, demi-omniscient feedback and Krell-like control by thought.

But until then, pointing devices (mouse, trackball, keyboard cursor, cyber-glove, eye glint detector) and high-resolution displays (CRT, LCD, plasma, laser retinal-raster glasses) will continue to dominate much of sophisticated PC use.

What about our aging demographic who will have an increasingly difficult time seeing small screens?

It is the most efficient tool for me. Even if speech recognition was flawless, I still type faster than I talk. And imagine having to speaking in code.

You are right! I read alot of articles here that are all saying a PC is being replaced.( I see the problem taught in Psychology and postulated by Jean Piaget. That problem is called 'Centring'. This means focusing on only one aspect of a thing with the exclusion of all other factors. If you have the same amount of water in two glasses that have different width and height, a child will tell you that there is more water in a tall glass than in a short glass because they only center on height, not looking at width or other parameters!)
Smartphones are coming with PDF Readers, Mobile Office etc. However see how well you will create an excel financial report on the smartphone. Most features on thses smart phones at face value looks useful, in reality people even executives run back to the pc to do real work. Even when you are surfing, sometimes you feel eyestrain using a small screen, and also typing using an onscreen or some slide keyboard on a smartphone feels less cool if you have to be on the net for long. The best would be to say, the PC will eveolve into something different but will remain a PC and that is why we now have all-in-one PCs, which even if they are touch screens still ship with keyboards and mice.
I am yet to see a smart phone that does REAL work.

I am convinced either MS is paying people to post or you just don't get it. The PC is going away. This is happening right now, just look at the sales of iPads. No one is going out and removing PC's they are being replaced with technology that is more effective. I was a hard core PC user but now use my iPad more than my workstation or laptop. I am no hurry to replace my laptop. Yes, I will still use a PC for cad and graphics but I will ensure files can be read with a tablet or smartphone. It is asinine to make a comment about using a smart phone to create a financial report on a smart phone. Web pages will not be created on smart phones either. What is left of the PC market will probably be converted over to Apple. I am in no hurry to buy anymore MS based products and will explore my options carefully when I do.

Well I am looking forward to that. The problem with your arguement is that you are saying an orange will replace an banana. Ipads are selling more thanm PCs. Thats normal it's new thing. It is more entertaining. You should not look just at the shine ipad, the fact is an ipad is still pretty much limited, perhaps due to physical size, compared to a PC. To replace the PC, the ipad need to be more do all or more than what the PC is doing. Real work is done on the PC, an ipad does a fraction of what the PC does and it's real selling point is it's mobility. Something will replace the PC, but that wont be a shine toy, it will be a gadget that makes people do some real work. So whatever will come and kill the PC will still be a PC, albeit more powerful and more stylish, smallish, but NOT an ipad or anything like these techy toys.

I agree with SPitfire_sysop. There are situations where all that portability is not functional. I don't want to have to plug and unplug from mulitiple devises to accomplish different tasks. You can't carry all the excessories in you pocket or on your belt. You would need a brief case. So why not keep you laptop it already has one. My situation needs hard drive space for business documents and records and a printer to print them. The spart phone and table are good for some thing, especially when you're on the go, but I can't see them ever totally replacing the work station in a business environment.

Good reply, and spot on. I started at IBM in 1981, just two months after this historic announcement. I could write a book on what really went on as seen from the inside, but I'll just say that comments like the ones Dean made above are not in any way surprising. IBM lost the PC battle, both hardware and OS, in part because it was actually blinded by far more arrogance than ever existed on the other side. The public view was more the other way around, but perception is everything sometimes.

Dean is probably wishing for the end of the PC era because IBM, having built that first machine, lost the race and couldn't catch up. From all indications, the PC will continue to improve in design, looks and specs, no matter what.

@Spitfire -- could not have said it better myself; you are 100% correct. To build on your comments, high-end gaming, CAD and video editing aren't going anywhere but up in terms of CPU and memory demand. What many think of as a "PC" (i.e. a Wintel tower or equivalent) performs these tasks better than any other consumer-targeted device, and that's not going to change for a long time.

As an aside, mainframes and super computers are still very important for heavy lifting, but are not targeted at "consumers" (i.e. individuals). They are bought by corporations and governments to do things like run MMORPGs like EVE Online and for intelligence gathering / data reduction. I mention this because many think the day of the mainframe has passed too, but this is absolutely not the case. They keep getting more powerful, and as a result they are given harder and harder problems to work on, rather than being retired.

Tablets are great for browsing the Internet, taking notes, making Skype calls, playing low-end games (which are fun... I'm not knocking them, especially those that take advantage of the accelerometers), giving presentations, watching Netflix content when you're on the road, and a few other things. All of which is great; I love my tablet. But there is no way I'm playing EVE Online or designing an integrated circuit using Synopsis or Cadence design tools on it.

...every new medium derives from an old one, which it later supersedes...

Electronic Mail references normal Mail, but when was the last time you sent a regular mail...

The Horseless Carriage, aka Automobile, once derived from the Carriage... it even had the same wheels and the same format... when was the last time you drove with a horse in front....

Smartphones and tables might look like a PC, feel like a PC and act like a PC... but they aren't....

And to the contraire, CD weren't the ones that really buried Vinyls, it was MP3, which was possible after the digitalization pushed forward by the CD... but guess what... MP3 offer lower sound quality than CD and even lower than Vinyl... which capture the full range not just 16-bit or 24-bit samples...

Vacuum tubes offer far better amplification scope than transistors, and CRTs offer a better contrast rate than LCD...

And guess what... typewriters on the late 60's were only the realm of "personal assistants" (then called secretaries) which offered the advantage of having a pretty lady at your side that help with the letters... which disappeared once women escalated the power ladder...

So yes... none of the follow ups were near the old ones...

The cloud was meant to replace server farms/clusters which were meant to replace mainframes. After onslaughts from CDs and flashdrives, zip drives and superdrives (some of which have passed into tech history) the lowly floppy drive is STILL available and was still offered as an option on new PCs even up to recent times! You can find a USB version if needed. I don't think Mr. Dean is merely passing along the IBM soup-of-the-day, but he seems to be making a statement for shock value. Anyone who has been in tech five minutes knows better. And his statement...

These days, it???s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact. It is there that computing can have the most powerful impact on economy, society and people???s lives.???

is a bit hollow - innovators never rely on hardware for innovation; the hardware is just a means to an end. And that end he trumpets is a long way off. The 'social spaces' he speaks of make use of whatever technology is at hand whether it is a mainframe green screen, a PC or tablet or some combination. He argues a point that doesn't reflect the state or perception of current technology. How many tablet and smart phone owners have ditched their laptops or towers because of their new tech gadgets?

I'm having a parcel shipped to me. Email can't do that so the post office isn't going away. Also I have some Christmas cards to send.

Likewise, there are many things tablets can't do that will keep the PC around.

Evolution happens ... The PC has evolved however you look at it whether it is a desktop, laptop or tablet. I am a photographer a tablet has severe limitations but add a keyboard and it's useability reaches a far wider audience. A laptop in a meeting is far from perfect a tablet is excellent. I had a small notebook by panasonic where the screen turned and laid flat over the keyboard, you then used a stylus on the touch screen if you need some typing. The new option is a multifunction PC which is built into a screen (and called a tablet) you add a keyboard/mouse as required. That is evolution a tablet is not new (first shown on TV years ago) what is new is that technology has caught up and made it possible.

As long as the option to add peripherals remains (keyboards, mouse, bigger screen) then all will be benefit. All options have there benefits but one size hat does not fit all as they say...

I'm thankful that they waited until the last minute to slap it together from off-the-shelf parts and write a BIOS. Open architecture is fantastic. But since they ha no OS or software, they handed Gates the keys to the kingdom. At least twice. That bit could have gone better.

I wish media types would quit saying, or quoting others, that the PC is dead. Eventually, vendors will probably be fooled by this, and stop producing PC or the parts for them, and that will be a dark day indeed.

I can't imagine vendors will be fooled by marketing. They have cold hard numbers that tell them how many units they are selling and what the profit is; they don't need to read media articles to try to guess.

Whatever it evolves into, it will be personal, and it will probably be a computer.

Dean's comments prove it! A Personal Computer is simply a computer that the user does not have to share with anyone else. Just because IBM registered the name did not change the idea one bit. This means that a so called 'tablet' is an even more 'Personal' computer than the PC ever was.

So, IBM's vision of a PC may be dying or dead - BUT - long live the Personal Computer!

Like executives in large corporations, Mr. Dean does not send or read his own business emails, he does not create documents, he does not use spreadsheets for analysis, and he does not use databases for transaction processing. His view of technology is analogous to that of business people in the early 1900's when telephones (cell phone today) and telegraph (SMS of today) were the tools of business.

Dean probably has no use for any machine of productivity since he is not capable or interested in using them.

I think what Mr. Dean is getting at is that if he needs to contact someone, he won't go looking for a PC to type an email, he will use whatever communicates best. He can use his cell phone, his tablet, or something else to call, to text, to IM, to email. If he needed to create a spreadsheet, he would find the best technology to do it. The paradigm (forgive me for using that word) is shifting from being centered on what hardware you use to communicate what you are communicating. The process will become increasingly platform agnostic. I personally believe the PC in some form or other will continue to exist as long as it is a useful tool for doing what needs to be done.

We are moving back to centralized control.

The cloud: Big iron doing everything; dummies attached.
Tablets: Midsized iron doing most everything; dummies attached.
Smartphones; children walking around hangin'on to mommy's (server farm) skirt.

No surprise here. Been heading this way since 1999.

Ray

I would agree: Centralized Computing never went away. It is just a repackaging. And the differet is that a SERVER can become a CLIENT.

I've been hearing that the PC is dead for at least 15 years now. I would like to see corporate America survive without a PC on everyone's desk.

For Mr Dean. Would he design any complex device on his preferred platform. It's fine to talk about his current management role making sense on a tablet, but what about those of us who are developers or engineers?

Lets see an office cope without PC's...not in the next 10-15 years, people are too reliant on them, it'll take years to phase them out.

Nah, in your dreams. It will NEVER be adious 4 PC. Here is the reason(s). Employers will not allow removal of any co. related info detriment to ops. So just because the guy behind the original PC won't be using one, it is because he is too busy to be tied down. The Co. OWNER will NOT allow one to take the Co. jules home at night. ALSO he can monitor all activities better if his employees are HARD wired. Not to mention the SECURITY factor. Just like you store info off site for security reasons, one would store info at the home base. Letting the tablet be an off site go-to. Not to mention the EXCUSE that "Oh...that is kept at the office" not being accepted anymore. I don't..get this...DON'T use a cell. For security reasons. Yeah, I have an emergency set up that IS wireless. But in general, I, at this juncture, don't allow myself to be accessed 24-7. I have set times people can contact me. You have no idea how "freeing" that is. Now back to the office. My home office will be MY HUB. That is where my tower is. My tower is in MY TOWER Repunzel. I can't, and once again, carry ALL I need with my work, should not carry with me. 12 or say 24 Hard Drives?...400+ software programs with extreem secuurity issues...just along for the ride? HUH?
Never happen on my watch!
I don't care what type of redundancy you have. All in one basket available for loss in an instant?
There are things and projects I would NEVER dream of taking along for the ride! NOT SECURE. Hey, they even shoot executive protection people.
I can see the pad as being the
"start key" or MIXER so to speak. Take the place of a SOLID kick A$$, secured, alarmed, muti NON NETWORKED tower home base is equal to your own Fort Knox!
You'd have to be an idiot to trust all your everything to a portable device and only have "off site" storage as your backup. Off site? Where's the security in that. I won't even get into the multi monitor issue for that can be addressed with simple docking of your portable.
Instead of relying on a terd party storage, you will STIL use your home PC as the new secure backup and use off site as your needed redundancy. Anything less than that and you just threw out the family jules. Sorry guys but 35 years of providing protection to exects and others demands clear overview of the big picture.
That guy the story is about is doing just what one would do in HIS shoes. He is NOT...not, thinking of the average millionare or IT responsible bloke!
I prefer to have a solid PC base with a few portables to carry off site duties. No matter how big you get, your PC will be bigger. Your portable, only a device. Anything more and you are setting yourself up for Corp-Fail 101A.

The PC isn't all that personal any more. Data is moving into the cloud where it is better protected, not only in terms of security but in terms of backup and access .

I have a gaming PC at home, a media PC in every room of my house, a notebook almost permanently docked at my desk at work and a netbook for the odd run around. None of these devices really fits the old school "personal computer" definition. They are instead access portals to my information. I think this is the point Jason Hiner is trying to convey.

Tell that to all the people affected by the Amazon cloud outage. Nice try though!

How many times has credit card information been stolen from a COMPANY. How many times has a cloud been breached? No thank you - I will keep my PERSONAL information under lock and key.

I run a Linux machine that I do not use for network access. I only use Virtual Windows Machines to access the network, and I use different virtual machines for applications that handle personal/private information. AND, all of these virtual machines aren't even on the same PHYSICAL machine. I have put up a barrier that would be much harder to breach than the average company's (cough) "cloud", which is a name now used to pretty mean almost anything you want...

I predict that the end of the PC will arrive with the dawn of the paperless office.

musta missed it.

Huge fire burned up every sheet. PCs on the Cloud weren't burned however, as the Cloud rained all over them. Problem is smoke from the fire obscured the cloud and it, too, was lost.

OK, desperate for some humor here...

At the current rate of change away from PCs and the hours we have spent hunched over keyboards trying to do what we do, we should really take a moment and feel sorry for the back doctors that will soon reach the peak of the bubble and then will begin fighting for customers as the changes slowly build into life altering computer usage.

. . . at least not until a partable. . . I mean portable keyhole. . . I mean keyboard without auto-corrupt. . . I mean auto-correct is avatar. . . I mean available.

I doubt that the PC will die totally as an engineer doing real engineering, such as laying out a PC board or designing a transmission, or a scientist doing real research, such as modeling climate or finding a particle after a collision, will be able to do it on a tablet. Real design and research demand far greater capability than a tablet can offer. A bigger screen, more memory, a high power CPU are still required for many real jobs.

The PC era is still in full swing. Maybe now more so than 5 years ago. Now we have laptops with large screens and the power of a room size IBM computer 30 years ago. I think 30 years ago everyone thought the PC was a toy. Now it does serious computing and is a great teaching aid. I know that the Duke University undergraduate (and now probably the graduate) courses in Chemistry required a laptop computer. With small programs today complex molecules ca be visualized in 3D and their interaction with other molecules studied accordingly.

What this is may be the end of the era for the IBM engineer who designed the PC.

IMHO: Smartphones are becoming the choice for personal communication devices, geared for email, phone, text and social applications like Twitter and Facebook. PC's are still the backbone for programming, documentation and mainstream media. Tablets are replacing laptops, not PC's.

As a computer technician and system-builder (for more years than I care to say), I keep reading with amusement the various comments/declarations/predictions from these 'techno-seers' who have been declaring the PC's death for oh so long... Sure, technology is advancing toward ever-more-so "nanoistic' [my made-up word] configurations; which on many levels, is a very good thing. However, the hard-bitten *power-user* will never concede/relinquish his/her penchant for, well... PC power! I own several tablets and 'nanoistic' devices, and use them a lot in my day-to-day life, but when I finally get home, I tuck away those little toys, prop my large frame up to my desk, turn on my custom-built 'tower-of-power', and off I go... Can't do this riding a tablet. My advice to those crystal ball gazers is to stop wasting your time and the public's with these phony "death Knell" calls. As long as folks can build a faster, more powerful (and yes) bigger machines, the sky will be the only limit. Amen.

Amen, indeed, brother. Amen, indeed.

If all you need a computer for is web surfing, business letters, messaging and games, then a smart phone or tablet is all you need. But would you try to use one of them for creating large spreadsheets, developing a web site or editing professional-quality video and animation? Good luck.

The PC will never die because it does not require a keyboard, foppy disk, and mono screen as the IBM PC did. The mouse, voice interface, color, pressure sensitive, etc. was around with Atari, Commodore, Apple, etc., years before the IBM PC was even designed, so the IBM PC was always obsolete. But a tablet is still a PC once you realize input devices do not distinguish a PC. The fact we eventually will wear or imbed a PC does not make it less personal but more. And it had better always be a computer.

Executives/managers think everyone only needs what they need, and does what they do. Hence the following true comments from supervisors at my lab: "Nobody programs in Fortran anymore." "Why can't you use your current [10-year-old] compiler for that?" "Just change your [5000 lines of] code to C." "Use [other employee's] C compiler that he got free at a training class." "Why can't you use Excel [to generate plots for publications]?" "Why don't you dress up every day?" "There's no reason for anyone to be at the lab past 1900." "Why would you need to work from home during the day? Cubicles aren't disruptive." (That last comment always comes from someone NOT in a cubicle.)

You can call me tablet, smartphone, notebook but Im still an extension of the PC.

I agree with the sentiment that the PC desktop will always be around. I spend 8 hour a day in front of my desktop, controlling other desktops remotely with dual 24 monitors. For me its all about desktops space and raw power, Gigs of memory and terabytes of storage. I cant get this from smaller portable devices and thats all tablets /smartphones/notebooks are, extensions of the PC, offering better portability and broader access. The PC is not died just evolved.

I can build a PC cheaper and better than any brand-name computer and my PC will still out-perform any laptop, notebook, tablet, and smartphone. So no, the PC era isn't coming to an end - only the dominance of brand-name computers at best.

Come back in 5 years when the bulk of the work done in a business environment is still done with the most efficient tool available; the desktop PC and tell me again that they are dead. This guy obviously has no clue. I wonder if he was one of the people who decided that since the PC was never going to amount to anything more than a toy that IBM shouldn't even bother protecting it!

You also have to realize that this is just more marketing hype from IBM, hoping that, it coming from 'one of us', will carry a bit more weight and believability. He does have valid points, although the PC as we know it won't be going anywhere anytime soon. We've been told this before, when previous tablets and the Apple Newton made their debuts. IBM is just trying to back their services, which is the majority of what they offer now. I just love Mark Dean's comment, "IBM was smart to spin off their PC division to Lenovo years back... Even back then, IBM were visionaries that saw The Cloud!" (Paraphrased)... Umm, nice try at spin, but I don't think so. IBM pulled out of hardware simply because there wasn't enough margin in it for them to bother competing directly any longer. I'm sure they still get a hefty royalty from Lenovo for every IBM 'Think' system sold. And 'visionaries'? Again, that's a laugh. IBM became a 'me too' services provider along the same lines as a few others at the time, because it's more lucrative...

They were hardly the first to jump onto the 'Cloud' bandwagon, either, which is something else that is over-hyped and premature. Why, I got lost on a manufacturer's website the other day looking for drivers, because they had labelled them...'Hardware *Apps*'! I almost killed myself laughing...

I have a desktop PC (with two screens), a large Sony Laptop, two notebooks, a Xoom tablet and an Android smartphone. I suppose you could say I'm ready for anything, but in fact, getting ready to leave on vacation, I'm not sure what to take.

I love the tablet, but it's not very good for any extensive writing. I do have a keyboard so I can use it that way, but then from a space and weight perspective, I could have brought a netbook.

As to speech input, I've been writing about that field (and trying things out) since the 70's. A bit of information might be useful. When people used dictation devices to record their letters and memos, only about 11% of the people whose tasks indicated they could use these devices ever used them. This appears largely to be because some folks can create structure in their head and most can't. WIth a screen showing what you said in front of you, it's a little easier, but not a lot.

Voice recognition is great for command and control, but I think it will be hard to get it to replace a keyboard for text creation. I can't wait for it to be good enough (it isn't yet) to test out that theory, Maybe the next generation, so computer-facile, will be much better at this. Or maybe we'll develop a new class of tools.

First of all, the PC has never been more alive. By PC, I include LAPTOPS. Tablets - well, they are a bit of a different morphology, but they are essentially laptops with no keyboard. One of the biggest reasons tablets suck is that they generally have piss poor resolution. Not one table with 1920x1200 resolution (or even 1920x1080). That's the resolution you need to watch TODAY's group of hi-def movies (saying nothing about what's next around the corner). The PC has had offspring though, and they are flourishing. The smart-phone is one of the best examples. It's a "personal" thing that can be carried and used almost anywhere, anytime, even in a meeting. But it is not usable as a real computer.

As far as the cloud goes, people (smart people, not today's crop of intellectual zombies) know that once information gets into the "cloud" it is no longer private will NEVER let their personal information get out of their control or off their PC. Tax returns, financial records, contact lists, pictures, etc, all must and should remain a person's PRIVATE DOMAIN. Putting them in the cloud affords one no such privacy. Facebook - I call them the Face-Steeler (Ko - if anyone knows that reference I'll be impressed) is just a prime example of how one can NOT expect ANY privacy online.

As far as the typing goes... I don't want others to hear my thought and I don't want to SAY everything that I write. It's MUCH easier for me to simply type, edit, type, etc. Using all the available editing commands by VOICE COMMAND - sure - you can do it, but why, when it's just SO MUCH simpler - AND FASTER. Voice recognition is fine for the drones or those who simply want to take part in social networking, but for someone who actually wants to DO SOMETHING - forget it - never happen, not until the NEURAL INTERFACE is invented!

Whoever said that most keyboard functions have been replace by a mouse, now just pretend you hear your self saying. Menu 2, menu 3, edit, delete, insert row, menu 1, font size 12, font - view all, scroll down, scroll down, arial black. Then, how would you tell the mouse to go UNDERLINE a specific section? YUK...

Add into this that many businesses that are BUSINESS RELATED now don't have offices anymore, they have cubes or BULLPENS. Trying to get everyone THERE to start talking at the same time would be, well, chaos.

Now - talk about a few people who are all near each other and have each one of them talking at their device - you would have a cackling like sound and that's about it.

So, go ahead - dream your dream, but like someone said, PC's will go extinct just about the same time that (true) paperless offices take over (never).

The people at IBM have been predicting the PC's demise since it came out. I was at a meeting with people from a number of firms back in the early 80's. We were discussing the purchase of a PC for a philanthropic organization, when an IBM engineer said not to bother the PC was only a flash in the pan.

As for speech recognition, I believe Microsoft's SYNC system is a commercially available system in production. I know that when you say joy it will respond with julie or joel. My smartphone still reformulates words that I say or type into words that are in its dictionary, so I have to keep going back and correcting. I have neither of these problems with typing on a PC.

Tablets require a lot more protection from being banged around than a PC, are more easily misplaced or stolen. When it comes to convenience everybody has an opinion based on their own experience.

Smartphones: I lug my brick around with me in a holster (it's too big to fit in my pocket) and I love its large screen which is easy to read. But when I use it I always am aware that it is not really meant for secure communication because it is a broadcast device after all.

To sum up all of these devices are lovely to work with, but the PC is still the workhorse that gets the job done that none of the others can. I don't see it going away soon although I would bet that IBM has some device that they want to try to sell as a replacement for the PC. Yes, I am cynical, but then I lived in IBM country for 30 years.

The PC was an interface to information entry and retrieval. It relied on new chip technology that made it possible to scale down computing to a consumer level. A long time ago in the evolution of this technology the PC took second place to the network. The Internet is our ultimate expression of the network today. Now data is entered and retrieved from it using multiple devices that all owe their origin to the chip revolution that owes the transistor a debt of thanks. Computing is no longer about the device. I use a desktop PC for my work. My wife has a netbook. My daughter has a notebook and smartphone and iPod with wifi. Today it's all about the network whether it is the information shared on it or the infrastructure to support it. PCs are just another device to gain access.

Mr. Dean missed the boat when he said the PC will got the way of vinyl records. They never went anywhere. Sure, you can't walk into just any music store today and purchase them, but vinyl never went away. It has always been a stable of the underground music culture, and has seen a resurgence in recent years, even from mainstream music companies and labels, and is still a viable option for collectors and music afficionados like myself. I have purchased several vinyl releases over the last 4 years from new artists - some are "specialty" releases, others are just vinyl versions of the CD album.

While I realize his comment was not the salient point of his statement, it's a lesson in "choose your metaphors carefully"

I have been into PCs since the start - I started at school on a teletype connected to Cambridge, input today feedback next week. I started with Sinclairs ZX81 and have grown with the technology. Smart phones, tablets and embedded devices are fine for their limited use. Education, Corporate and SME users will not accept cloud computing as their sole provision for many years to come and battery capacity, solid state drive capacity have at least 5 more years of development to persuade users to small form factor devices. As an indicator look at Netbooks - penetration has been negligible despite extremely low pricing. I still expect to spend my retirement in front of a at least one full size screen and keyboard. The important trend for me is remote access - I can do it all from my laptop, anywhere in the world. An old server and old PCs converted as NAS still provide the heart of the system.

No matter how smart you are you can still say b.s. Centre of any social innovation is still the basic PC. AND as Jason rightfully acknowledges, if you really want to create documents and process data which is heart of computing you still need PC in its traditional sense AND most important of all: What you see in smartphones and tablets (even if you separate them from PC) is still based on PC. The argument is like: The time for i7 is up. Now there is a revolution and from now on we will have second generation of i7. Yeah that is being replaced by this. But seriously... isn't that just b.s for someone with a bit of common sense left in them?

I tend to agree with your take-away view, Jason. I get what Mr. Dean is trying to say. The landscape of the general universe of computing and how we leverage these devices has changed dramatically, and will continue to do so. But I believe it's a bit too soon to start declaring the PC as dead.

No way would a tablet do what I need it to do for my day-to-day activities. And I am not going to sit there and squint all day at a little smart phone screen. But for an executive that spends no time in the trenches, a tablet is probably OK. And don't kid yourself; "the social spaces between them", code for "the cloud" is not nearly as secure as they would like you to think. No way am I hanging my sensitive data out there! Not at this time, anyway. Besides, after you hook up all the peripherals you need to make a tablet actually useful, it's a PC in a different wrapper. Until then it's just some kind of fancy viewer toy thingy!

In our current economic state, I see that next dramatic transition pushed out a little farther still. So in my mind the PC will be around for quite a while to come. Interesting article though. Thanks!

The PC is still the best "main-frame" for all your computing needs. One place with a copy of everything that matters to your tech. I back up all my data, mobile, local and cloud to my pc, because it just always works. I also mirror that data to a notebook that is part of any emergency exit strategy in case of complete disaster.

Oh and by the way, LP's are making a BIG comeback! Just sayin'

I think their have been a few generational changes in PC's over the years. Simply from the point that technology has pushed the PC from the desktop to the Notebook for one example.
But I don't see the PC has changed that much. It has only evolved through technology that allows us as users to do more with them and in a faster and more portable way. If I was to compare Windows 3.1 to Windows 7. Their is still similar functions that Windows 7 today does as Windows 3.1 did. Sure the UI might look better and the PC is obviously faster but in terms of general functions today vs 10 or more years ago. I still think the PC is still performing as it did back then. The hardware has improved, the programs have changed, even the web has changed. But the PC is still the PC.

Graphic artists, serious programmers, spreadsheet fiends, and people who want fast, multiple hard disk storage are not anywhere near giving up their PCs. Also anyone who actually knows how to type/keyboard is not going to transition to thumbing and stressing wrists tendons in lieu of a legitimate keyboard. The only people I know who are using tablets are people who never knew how to use their PCs. It's a near-toy which, as you describe, is also useful for executives who never learned how to use their PCs either. That makes it a READING device for which it has some advantages over a PC (portability, primarily), but that's about it.

It does not mater what it looks like it is still a PC that is a Personal Computer, so it is not the end of it is just evolving

Sorry, but he has no bully pulpit to make such a statement. In fact, it's a pretty dumb statement from a pretty bright guy. The PC will never die. It will always exist in some fashion to serve the User in whatever way is required.
Some people probably thought the Colt 1911 was going to die too, but the design has outlived the designer and it continues to be a brutally effective weapon.

I still read books. In fact we have many of them around here in development.

The PC or the IBM Mainframe Computer?

Yes, in spite of what you may have heard, the IBM Mainframe still hasn't gone away, although there is only one in the entire County of Pierce in the State of Washington.

What we need is the Quantum Computer. It's coming. Doesn't seem to be soon, but it is coming.

And when it arrives and becomes commercial, the IBM Mainframe will die forever. Not to worry, IBM will be the manufacturer of the Quantum Computer.

But there is cause for concern, because Quantum Computing holds the promise of replacing all current business systems. Imagine too, what will happen when all the stock markets of the world can be simulated fairly accurately for years to come, all instantly. No more jobs in IT at all. No more project managers, no more managers, no more security personnel. The Quantum Computer will ace the Turning Test.

Only one thing to be concerned about -- turning it off. Probably not an option, especially if it is auto repairing and has designed "circuits" for itself, no human or group of humans could ever possibly hope to understand. The only thing left is what to name the first one. How about the IBM HAL 9000.

Fanciful?

Compare the predictions of the 1950 issue of Mechanic's Illustrated with what has been actually produced. Over 50% was based on unforseen techology (like the LASER).

The only good thing for the current IT Professionals is that most of us won't last in the field another 50 years. But 30 years may see the Quantum Computer.

Unless, of course, the world economy tanks and we regress to the stone age.

My main machine is a Motorola Droid X. That's right, a Droid X. I have a Mac pro at home, but whenever I want to use a full screen computer, I just hook up my Apple bluetooth keyboard to my Droid X, then plug in the HDMI to a 55" screen, and mirror the video. Now that's a mobile computer!

The Box will always be here as to what Mark Dean is saying, but is how we interact with the damn dumb thinghy. The PC has become an after thought -- but the new business innovation is between our brains and the Box. The hupla surronding the machine (technology) has reached the leveling point only where we can manipulate the technology -- say doubling speed, storage capacity, FSB, etc.

I've heard the promise in the 70's that robots would be doing all my housework but it's not going to happen any time soon. Robots have progressed immensely to do some very specific things, very, very well, just not cleaning my house or preparing my meals.
I've worked on speech recognition tools starting back in the 80's too, yet to turn on the lights, I either flick the switch or clap my hands. Speech recognition has found it's place screening real people from the profanities hurled at them in telephone call centres.

Tablets have their place, right now, for viewing content. Not very may people use them to create that content though and that won't change anytime soon.

The fact that a guy who helped build an early IBM PC thinks he has no use for a PC doesn't carry much more weight than any Joe you would interview on the street. Those that view content can imagine a pc-less world. Those that create content can't imagine a world without them.

Just remember the PC is very dumb machine. You and I have to tell the damn thing what to do and how to do it!

Show me a phone or tablet that can do 3-way SLI or Quad Crossfire running 24 gigs of memory while running 3 GHz plus on 6 plus cores and I'll throw away my PC. Which means that I won't be doing that anytime soon.

Well, after I picked myself up off the floor laughing I started to write this.. This person is of the same vintage as myself and yes everyone I agree the PC is not dead.. it has evolved. We carry around with us compute power but we always have an App that ties into our home PC which has a much bigger monitor (screen) and a real keyboard, mouse.

Doing real work on a very small screen is a chore. Typing on diminutive keyboard is a real chore and what's up with that pushing your finger accross a screen to move from one cell to another..

Sorry Mr. Mark Dean, the PC is very much alive and will be well into the future because we use them to create real work and to marry them to our mobile devices.

Long live the PC!

I saw the PC's birth and all the revolution it created and frankly I don't believe the era of the PC is over. There will always be a computer in every home and that is what has made the PC a powerful tool. Take the PC away and Microsoft goes bankrupt as well as many other companies which depends on the PC's market to make trillions of dollars. Microsoft, as an example, is the largest software company and all because of the PC. Another example is Intel, the company was just like many companies in the early 80 s making microprocessors, such as the 8088, but the processors was not the best in its kind at that time ; it was IBM who made Intel a big company by including the Intel microprocessor as part of the design; to me that has been always a mystery as IBM could very well produce the microprocessor for the PC. Another inexplicable thing was why IBM put the design in the public domain instead of IBM making all the profit.
At the same time the era of the PC began the Internet was born with ARPANET developing the protocols such as TCP/IP and paved the way to the birth of the Internet as we know it today and hence the ability for people to be able to communicate using the PC. I know that as time goes by, PC s will become smaller and more powerful but it will always have a place in the home.

As far as the tablet is concerned, I think that it does not, nor will have, the capabilities of the PC even using "pico" technology which is the technology after the "nano" technology. By the time we reach the "pico" technology it will be year 2100 or more and we all be dead; meanwhile, companies such as Microsoft and many others will continue to reap the fruits of the PC.

Cicuta

I'm not an IT guy or engineer as most of the respondents seem to be. As a business owner & "teacher" of staff, customers, would be customers, it seems that many of you have really missed Dean's point. Re-read his blog post. Here's the crux of the matter in his words: "...These days, it???s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact. It is there that computing can have the most powerful impact on economy, society and people???s lives.??? What are the social spaces? What does that mean?

In my mind's eye it means, "It's about PEOPLE!" What is the "new" method with which we will collaborate or design or think or communicate or do business? What will get us - all of us - from behind a screen (hand held, desk top or larger) - and get us back to true "face to face" communication. What technology is there to facilitate human interaction? Where's the "high touch" vs the "high tech" that we used to talk about?

We live at the cross of societal evolution. These are truly exciting times.

Where does this writer get his information from?
How can you even suggest that this IBM piece of junk was the beginning of the PC revolution? The revolution started many years before this joke was introduced to the marketplace. I am 64.6 years old and was at the original Las Vegas Comdex event when this PC was introduced. PC means personal computer by the way. IBM took it on as being their own and has since evolved into meaning all computers running Windows software. Compaq and Digital and yes, even Apple computers existed long before IBM got into the market. I wouldn't be proud of being recognized as the original engineer of the first IBM PC. It was a dismal failure. The Geeks who were at the Comdex show (myself included) laughed at IBM's original entry into the computer market.
Please read the history of computers before making stupid, ignorant statements.
We are subject to history being re-written by imbeciles.

Once we build skyscrapers the need for cabins was gone. How come they still exist?

It's obvious, the man never had a decent job. Can anyone tell me how to work on my imagefiles on an I-phone?

Speech recognition? Tilt the head a little more left. Snow bit more white. Gray must be RGB 127-127-127 .

And how to control sharpnes on an I-pad. What about a colortemperature of 5000 Kelvin on a screen that belongs in a hospital for the blind?

And I don't have the intention to ditch my wide screen television either.

Come on, get real...

You know who keeps waving the end of PC era flags? Those who never really did anything productive with them besides surf the web to buy stuff off of amazon, facebook and looking at questionable sites. Thats why they can say a tablet is fine for them. But if you are a graphic artists whose livelihood depends on photoshop, video editing or software developer, PC is here to stay. You can say there will be tablet alternatives in a few years that will be good enough for photoshop and software dev but then you CANNOT say PC era is over. You have to say PC era WILL BE over at some point in time. But please don't make silly remarks that the PC era is already over when you haven't been a real part of it for a long time now. Its only over for you because you no longer or maybe never had a real use for a computer.

Pardon me while I go back to doing my long list of software development projects on my PC running windows which I expect to sit in front of me for several more years.

"it???s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact. "

This is all well and good for "creative types" (you know, mac users) But there are still people that use their computers to do actual work. And "Work" isn't going anywhere just yet.

I know this man may have helped to create the PC, but he is forgeting one thing when you connect up a PC it's not only a workstation or a personnel computer but a friend. If all you have is this tablet crap you still have to connect it up to a printer, keyboard and a mouse plus if your over 50 you better have a 22" screen at least, those tablets are to small plus you always have to clean up the display especially after you ate some kentucky fried chicken. Now i know all you smart people out there are saying everything will be wireless and you will no longer have to connect anything?? Well that's crap too. You will still have to connect it to a docking station of some sort so what is the difference, your still looking at that little itty bitty screen. I could be wrong but i think there are some of you out there that will agree.

P. C. stands for Personal Computer.
What is an ipod tablet but another form of personal computer?
Let's see... an ipod has: 1. cpu 2. main memory 3. input/output devices 4. it is not a mainframe 5. one person uses it at a time.
If it walks like a duck....
An ipod or other tablet is just another form of PC. So how can you say that the PC is replacing the PC? A bit on the absurd side, maybe?
Maybe what he means is that the desktop computer will be replaced by a tablet computer. And it has been said above, that the desktop computer has so many advantages over a tablet 1. full size keyboard 2. full size monitor (or two!) 3. mouse. 4. printers! 5 printers! and 6 printers! I don't see anybody with a tablet who is also carrying around any full size full color printers. And so it goes. Not to mention the processing power advantages of a desktop computer. so I won't.
I sorta see the tablet computer going the way of CB Radio - still there but nobody cares about it anymore. Tablets are awkward and hard to use. You can keep yours because I don't want one.

Clearly the pc is one of the major building blocks of the enterprise and retail market. One should not let diversity cloud your main task utility the PC. Clearly mobile fulfils a function of fashion and mobility access but the form factor restricts productivity and always will with other devices. To me I always come back to the PC to do serious productivity tasks.

I interpreted his definition of PC differently. Of course we will always have some kind of device, some kind of keyboard for data entry ... but with the movement towards the cloud (just like it used to be with dumb terminals), I think we will see the "Personal Computer" or "Computer that does everything" start to disappear. It will be replaced by something that can barely do anything unless it's attached to a network, but that you will never have to worry about a backup or about moving to the next OS. Honestly, it freaks me out.

I've been around before, and since. I understand what Dean said. We all don't sit around and stare at our phones for things... we'll have a box of some type for that. Its the social revolutions like facebook, twitter, and the like that are changing the game. The PC has gone from being a "Personal" Computer, to a Socially interactive device. The origins of the PC and what that stood for, is no longer it's major meaning though many of us still use it as such.

And he's an engineer??? I have heard this argument for years. I have a smart phone, Xbox, Wii, IPOD, and a nook color. And still I use a PC 90% of my computing time. How do these "End of PC" people lose touch???

i think nothing has replaced PC when it comes to getting down to create a full-fledged application or a document. laptops and other gadgets are being widely used but PC still occupies an indispensable part in the computing world

Android tablets and phones are the new home PC with wireless keyboards.
Most people don't need anymore than that.
The days of the CAD Pc and high spec PC are still around but CAD vendors are producing 'cloud' versions.
It's part of the document control fad.. Not only the documents, workspaces and enviroments are stored on central DB/sharepoint servers.. but soon the application software will be too.
Solidstate drives in eepc type boxs will do the job instead and just load the software off the net and run it from local ram drives.
So sort of a PC, but probably not windows. If so windows on vmware on android/linux etc..
In 1999 motorola tried to launch GPRS it failed and took a few yrs.
Even then they had PC on a Chip tech and were storing OS and apps on CF cards. No hard drives used at all.
A GPRS base station took less than 5 secs to boot up to 24 lynxos 'workstation boards and be ready and working.
Back in 85 DEC had all Vaxes working as one machine with diskless nodes. A VMS cluster.
The PC in my mind was a step back.. Just wish the Amiga and MacIntosh had not met so much disdain/distrust.
Intergraph PDS 3D CAD modelling software ran on PII's with 64mb ram.. CADcentre's PDMS runs on EePC netbooks.
Mobile phones and gaming consoles have better hardware/memory nowadays.
I banned my 10yr daughter from PC and TV, so she asked to use the Wii.
Then she used iplayer to watch TV! She's also played online games using the Wii.
MarioKart let you play users all over the world.. Kids chat using facebook..
The recent riots in UK also show poorer people have mobiles capable of networking, but they probably don't have a PC!!

The death of the PC will follow M$ fall from power.
The one bad thing is that there are too many chefs(OS's)around...
Which is why Unix went out of fashion.
I think Android is going to be the new windows err black!
That's just because it got Google behind it and Google are where M$ where in the 90's.

If the tablet can have the computing power (RAM etc.) with the portability it has, there is no reason why it won't replace the PC or laptop as a major (though not primary) hardware for personal computing. I am not an engineer, but given the laptop these days possibly has more power than a huge room of full of computing hardware back a few decades ago, I don't think it is impossible.

There are accessories that can go with it that can make it work as well as a PC (that is what the docking station does for laptop). Of course, PCs would likely still have special uses and its use depends on how willing the user is to trade-off between functionality and portability, but for the majority of normal everyday users, I bet the tablet can suffice particularly when portability and convenience is important nowadays and it could just be a matter of time. For intensive computing power that a tablet (or even the current PC can't handle efficiently), one can send the job off to the super-computing unit at work etc. rather than run it on their own hardware. Why would I want to run it on my own hardware when I have other things I need to do with it anyway?

The end of "Personal Computer" as a "One-for-all tasks device" is happening... that's a fact. But, the "personal computing" as an action still in there... We still managing huge loads of data through any device. Now you can read your mail in your smartphone, use a tablet to attend a meeting, then you go to the desktop and "finish" the job. All of these steps lead to being more "profitable". It isn't an end as there will be no PCs to be bought on a store's shelf, but it's an evolution on how we use the available technology. In my environment, all I need is my laptop and my blackberry, but I know there will be other gadgets I can go and buy the day I'll find a task for.

I remember my dad saying once (about 1998) "Why the hell I need a cellphone? I don't think there's nothing so important that couldn't wait for me arriving home"... Now he calls my mom from the supermarket to ask her which brand of milk he will buy.

I will never buy one of these things, I love my desktop. Won't settle for anything less, especially the ipad which is not even usb compatible, makes no sense to buy one

My humble opinion is that the next wave of PC replacement devices will most likely be the mobile phone. I agree with some of the comments about the wanting to have a full-size keyboard and larger screen - but with the right connection protocol, perhaps we can get (a low power Gen2 Bluetooth perhaps). We want consistency in the core data but want to use different devices at different times. A phone to make a call, a tablet to do some light work, a PC for heavy full on typing with a decent screen and a mouse etc.
So, the concept is you carry your phone in your pocket or handbag:
- normal phone function with the usual Smartphone connectivity, Wi-Fi or 3G, depending on what is available.
- on the train and you want to use your tablet, just take it out and use it as normal, it has already connected to your mobile handset and has access to all that central consistent data - it is a simple and cheep screen with no real processing capability (sounds like some that are around now)
- sit down at your office desk and the keyboard, mouse and monitor all connect to your mobile handset and again have access to that central consistent data.
Your mobile phone has become the centre of the world - did it replace the PC, no it is just the evolution of it!!!!

I look forward to the day when the technology fads and crazes get us forward, or back, to the point where we happily interact, human to human, again. So many people remind me of several Philip K Dick characters, leading completely solitary lives, only interacting through technology. This is the way we, in western society, are heading.

Mark Dean's blog contained the sentence:
"These days, it???s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact"

Thus has it always been, surely? Innovation and creativity, even technical innovation, historically has flourished when people get together and talk to each other, face to face.

When we can put technology in the category of 'useful tool', whether it be a pc or smartphone or tablet etc, and not 'must have gizmo to show off', we will all flourish.

You must be kidding, right? I still profoundly believe that the personal computer is in need of further development, I was using a iPad the other day and it just doesn't feel right, y'know what I mean? I'll try be explaining it this way, it gets a lot of getting use to and the computer doesn't recognize everything your finger presses on the touchscreen. I'm still a devoted fan of the PC and I don't think I'll ever really want to see it go extinct like the VHS video player and cassette. I am grateful the the invention of this incredibly practical and constructive time using machine, what will I do without it!

I wonder if he is the same IBM suit that proclaimed PCs were only a passing fad and everyone would be returning to mainframes shortly. I recall that proclamation came in the early 80s.

I've read many articles and pronouncements announcing this or that - the novel is dead, history has ended, and now the PC is dead.
Bosh.
The guy who argues that the PC is dying or dead is doing so from the point of view of personal experience. It's clear from what posters have said that they all have their own angle on which tech tools are useful to them and which aren't. The PC is useful to me and will continue to be so even if everyone stops using them (which they won't) and then stops making them (likewise).
Clearly the tablet has its uses, but it's not important to me. We have a broad church here: anything that is worthwhile to someone deserves its place. I'm sure nearly all of these tech solutions will survive as long as they have some comparative advantage against other tools with a different u.s.p.
Russ

Hes just plugging the current IBM marketing line which says "It isn't a new khind of computer but a new khind of computing.

Suits IBM well since they are now a purely services company.

OK

"Dean helped build the original IBM PC". So what! The only accomplishment there was the merge of the hardware and software. I'd already built and was running an IMSAI 8080 for 4-years. IBM just took the technology, put it in a different package and merged DOS with it. But I guess that makes Dean some kind of prophet?

Been exposed to this statement quite a bit lately while taking some business update classes. Jobs is also writing the obit. What this all boils down to is what the definition of the PC is. I always thought it meant "Personal Computer". It can be any size or shape. SmartPhones are still a bit anemic, but do fit the description. Even Dean's tablet can be considered a PC. So now they're trying to re-define the PC as the Cloud? Jobs, because I don't think Apple ever intends to release an iPhone that can actually perform well as a standalone PC (and therefor must be tied to the iCloud). And Dean, because, as someone said, IBM is only a Services company in this arena.

Personally I'm not going to let them re-write the definition. The PC is the device that handles the local computing for me. Period.

They can play with their smoke and mirrors as much as they want. Oh, and "clouds" are nothing new either. Just "newly" hyped.

http://dilbert.com/2011-08-03/

As far as I'm concerned- I'm planning to use it for a while. If you use computer a lot- nothing beats the big screen, and ergonomic keyboard.

A multi-million dollar market won't just go away unless consoles takes over, I think PCs are gonna stay for a while.

When IBM entered the PC race it took the technology 3 years backwards. In those days I had a North Star horizon computer with color graphics and resolution and performance far greater than the IBM PC. I hope they are not going to enter this market again and delay technology just because their name is big.

I think the future will get rid of these big desktop towers soon. Technology is getting smaller, people want to work from home. The office will still have a full-sized keyboard, mouse and two monitors the difference is you will be plugging in your tablet or smart phone and doing all your work with that. When the day is done, grab your device and bring it home where you can have the same environment set up. This, IMHO is the future.

i don't know about you but if i am going to live in the cloud . I wan't my data at home by logging in to my own server at my house with back up storage amd power.i wan't to wach my local t.v.,play my music ,and watch my videos with out the cost of loseing it all . End of P.C. i think not.

Look, I know companies would love to have us all on the Cloud; you can't easily pirate programs and movies located on distant servers. THIS is the unspoken reason businesses are rushing to it. It's a scary thought, that because of a bunch of amoral geeks and thugs (and that is what most pirates are), the rest of us will be held hostage, not being able to use any software or watch any movie without someone else knowing about it and having the ability to stop us whenever they want. I will not move to the cloud. I will continue to use computers with installed software until they have to ply the dusty keyboard from my cold, dead fingers..I am not a Luddite. I will use tablets and the Cloud but not exclusively and not to replace the greatest tool fhe information age ever produced, the computer.

I also remember IBM making the prediction that the world could or would be run on 4 main computers/servers and how most professionals scuffed at that notion as some comments do above. Now, with cloud computing taking shape and portable devices I think we are well on our way perhaps not with 4 computers but rather a hubs of central servers/repositories consolidating with better technologies.

So its easy to see, especially with the progression of technologies and the means of accessing information, how this is playing out.

BTW: I think we can also expect the capitalists and paranoids to strangle this progress to sell us with another few version of the same product and not let go of the revenue streams but then again here comes Google-Moto.

Remember the average Joe just wants something that is cheap, easy to use and works (for the most part). Security, is unfortunately an after thought but I am sure the IT pros with work on that.

The truth is that like an onion the PC layer will be part of all the layers that come after it, just as the PC is part of all the layers before it. These guys that don't produce work, but rather manage it, find the tablets and smartphones easier than carrying a laptop because they absorb information, they don't create much. Creators of the data they absorb however will be the PC users of the future, in whatever incarnation that they want to call it. Just like Rock and Roll, the back beat rhythm, just can't be taken out of music. Carry on my friends I am the data master, I own you as you innocently absorb all that your dumb devices can display !!

Was he paid off by Steve Jobs who also announce the end of the "PC" era or just copying jobs? If the "PC" is dead why does Jobs' Apple continue to sell Mac laptops and desktops? Wouldn't that be unethical? I guess he figures if the government knows that smoking kills people then he can still sell his computers.

About forty yeas ago, when ATMs first started to appear, a banker told me that tellers would no longer be needed. When I protested that I preferred a teller, he told me that young people would all go to ATMs and us older characters would eventually disappear. Well, as you know, there are now more tellers than ever because banks have entered retail stores and now have long hours(banker's hours is no longer a joke). My wife is a librarian and was told long ago that librarians would not be needed because of the information available on the Internet. Well, librarians are now "information specialists" and are needed more than ever to guide people through all the misinformation on the Web.
Actually the computerization of medical facilities will keep small PC's around for a long time, although most may be "thin clients." I have yet to see a doctor use a tablet, and at my age I see a lot of doctors. Of course obsolescence does occur; the typewriter and the telex are gone. On the other hand, the computer compelled many men to learn how to type who otherwise would have left that to the female secretary. The typewriter is gone, but typing is here to stay.

The demise of PC is in the conventional format sense only. If we go literally then personal computing is becoming more prominent and ubiquitous may be called by any name or using any device. Today even for using the mobile we use a computing chip not to speak of the tablets and the like. These all have the input, output and processing entities within & even use an OS to do the house keeping. So PC has morphed into different form and format, that is all.

The PC era is not going to end until we have a good interactive AI as our user interface. Until then, the PC may, and has, expanded into a plethora of more portable, specialized physical configurations. Expanded, not ended. There is a vast difference; unless you're some kind of marketing stooge trying to sell more of what people already have.

With all the excitement about tablets, they just do not offer a full productive experience to everyone. I cannot write code on my tablet, I cannot write a full report with embedded objects that the word processing vender did not think of. The tablets are great for people who only deal with email and spend their lives moving from one meeting to the next. I myself have just replaced my notebook computer with a tablet and most of the time I do not miss my notebook computer at all. As a more technical person and not someone who moves from meeting to meeting, I have found solutions like Citrix Receiver allow me to not have a notebook computer and just rely on the tablet to handle all my mobile computing tasks. I still need a desktop computer to do some additional work that I would not be able to do on my tablet. I am also a graduate student and I am using the tablet to take notes in class and I will also use the computer to type out documents and work on calcultions that I will need for my classes. I will still need a desktop computer in which to add stuff like biblographys and equations in my reports.

i think the tablets and PCs are going to fuse to create more powerful equipement like the Dell Inspiron Duo (http://www.dell.com/us/business/p/inspiron-duo/pd?sc_err=noocs) and Acer Iconia (http://us.acer.com/ac/en/US/content/iconia).

Quote from Wikipedia on Personal Computer:
"A personal computer (PC) is any general-purpose computer whose size, capabilities, and original sales price make it useful for individuals, and which is intended to be operated directly by an end-user with no intervening computer operator."
A personal computer is one that is primary used by one person. If you think of what predated the personal computer, main frames (which require a computer operator) you soon realize that the real differencing factor between a PC, smart phone, or tablet is how you access your data. Once you can no longer access any data on the local device without the help of a computer operator (whether it???s a person or a remote computer program) then you can say that it is not a PC. Today???s personal computing devices are not so different from the standalone machines from years ago in the fact they are chemical electrical based computational tools. In a strong technical sense of the definition a tablet, smart phone, and arguably even a cloud notebook are personal computers because they are computing devices intended for the purpose of being used by a sole individual. Years ago I heard the term Personal Computing Device as a broader term to describe all these new hybrid devices that were and are coming to the market. The key word is coming to market. In marketing since of the word yes the PC era is over, but it???s simply marketing. The CD and record use different materials, so does the automobile compared to the horse and buggy. But that smart phone, PC, tablet, or cloud notebook are all pretty much the same inside, and they are intended as a tool for single individual. Perhaps in the future there will be computers that we access using our brains or some embed processing unit. At that point I think we can agree that the PC is dead and instead we just have Personal Computing Spaces (PCS).

I owned a newton for a couple of years and have yet to find a device that takes 'lunch with david' and goes to my calendar and blocks 90 minutes starting at 11:30 with david's contact info.
Does siri or google voice on the samsung note 2 do this?

A PC is one that adheres to the original PC, the 8 bit 8085, later the 8086, hence the "X86" generation designation. There has been loads of computers based on just about every 8 bit to hit the market. The PC helped to advance the double sided floppy and eventually to the 1.4 MB diskettes as the cpu's gained more addressablity on RAM, floppies and hard drive. The scientific community jumped on the CO-Processor and soon it became an integral part. Upward compatablity was the goal and was driven by none other than Microsoft. The wrote the first DOS for the IBM PC and later re-wrote it to reflect hardware differences of different mfgrs. MS-DOS became more common and came bundled on the machine. With the third party market almost equal to the OEM, hardware options further the advances and clued the mfgrs to the next inclusions on their boards to eliminate the need for after-market parts and hardware. As the devices get smaller and more and more gets included in that package, the PC may remain as a backup to one of those all in one things when you drop it.

Is anyone really suggesting that no one will need a PC in the near future? Is there anyone here who never uses a PC or laptop at home now?

"My primary computer now is a tablet." suggests to me that he still has at least one PC for all the things his tablet can't do.