Have you ever seen any sort of crimeware dashboard, for instance? These are well-organized businesses in an organized industry with marketing and slick software. Especially for botnets.

The probabilities that you might see any particular intrusion or infection are possibly low. For the criminals, the probabilities that they will get what they are after and make money doing it are rather high. It's a going concern.

I don't think there is a lot of FUD among researchers, but there is some from the marketing arms of AV and other security software/service vendors.