They're not stupid, but they do have a history of throwing spaghetti at the wall to see if it sticks, vs. a more conscientious approach. That, and their exits are hardly graceful. It's either forced compliance, or complete abandonment.
Incidentally, no, I actually liked XP's changes. I'm not against change -- in fact, I think it's necessary. But not for change's sake, as is often the case with moving icons around in Control Panel, or using more context links on the left side of a window rather than plain, direct access. That's pointless and irritating. Sure, I can learn where it is, but now I have to remember the six ways to get to it when I walk someone through it over the phone. That's not good change. New is only better if it serves a purpose.
I see plenty of room in business for tablets and mobile devices. Not as a complete replacement though. At least not yet. Those technologies need to root themselves into our workflows before we can up and toss out the "old way". Designers are still figuring out how to leverage this new method of device/human interaction. We need bigger surfaces and more tactile response, and a completely different presentation. You can't just compile in a good touch interface.
There's a tool for every job. The mouse and keyboard aren't it for all tasks, but that's exactly what I'm on about here. One size does not fit all. It may sound alluring to have a single, unified platform that will run anything, but reality does not work that way. It's not ergonomic, intuitive, or efficient.
Give the touch UI time to grow and mature ON ITS OWN, then we'll talk about replacing "legacy" tools with it. Microsoft seems to be so used to being late to the party, that this time they're not hearing the community cry "too soon!" Fit the technology to the need.
So yes, Microsoft has a complete portfolio in the business market segment, and this has been largely unchallenged. That does not imply they're infallible. It just means they'll be able to crash and burn longer than a newcomer could. Resting on their laurels and making unwise decisions will not help their longevity -- monopoly or not.
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