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Personally, I agree with this analysis.
Like the author, I have a number of Android and a number of iOS devices.

I think that is part of the problem, too. We can skew these numbers by what we include or do not include as an Android or iOS device.

I think some of the responses here point out a pretty obvious observation - that a lot of iPhone 4S sales were a seasonal spike given as gifts - and that Android is going to see less of a bump due to seasonal gifting than iOS.

But to say that this alone is responsible for Apple's statistical climb might be wishful thinking as well. Having an iPhone under the tree is far more exciting than having a RAZR, Bionic or Galaxy Nexus under the tree, for sure, especially for teens and young adults. But I think there has also been growing discontent with some of the difficulties with the Android platform among the user-base, and that can't hurt Apple's sales.

The Transformer Prime was eagerly anticipated, and ASUS botched the deployment of this tablet far worse than their flubs releasing the original Transformer. The original was plagued by supply shortages and a significant battery drain problem. The latest added a serious GPS and WiFi problem and a locked bootloader - and still was in significantly short supply on release. Recently I had a reason to use my old iPad, which I gave to my wife. The 1st generation iPad still feels smoother and more responsive in most tasks than my Transformer - and I'm not convinced that a Transformer Prime would address those issues. I'm hesitant to upgrade to ICS when it becomes released until other people play the canary in the coal-mine and I'm certain that the experience is improved, not made worse - by the new OS. The feedback I'm seeing online does not indicate that ICS is a step forward.

Likewise, my Droid 2 is growing long in the tooth, but a number of reviews of current top-of-the-line Android handsets has me holding off even though I am currently eligible for my New-Every-Two upgrade period. The Razr has no user replaceable battery and a simply horrible camera. The Galaxy Nexus doesn't have an SD slot. I'm waiting to see what the Droid 4 feels like - although I'm watching a couple other makers offerings, too.

For many users - doing away with these kind of issues and picking up an iPhone is the logical answer. It makes these questions easy. Apple manages their releases so that even if the next iteration is marginally better - it is always a step forward. Now - they may achieve this by always releasing a device that holds back a little - but the perception is what matters (much like how their screen ALWAYS responds to input, even if it can't actually render the display fast enough). Battery drain, Force Closes, rebooting devices, and widely varying equipment quality are all things that hold Android back.

Just today, on my drive in, I needed to make a call so I grabbed my Droid 2. It was at a text-message screen, and I hit the back arrow. The screen went black and it hung there for an extended period of time. After waiting until I was frustrated, I simply hit the call button on my in-car OnStar. I had already placed the call and it was ringing by the time the Droid 2 became responsive. I've missed picture opportunities and had other needs that had passed by the time the device or app became responsive on my Droid 2 on numerous occasions. These are things a user like myself is willing to tolerate. But a lot of users will just dump Android and go to Apple when they encounter these things on a regular basis.

And Verizon offering the iPhone weighs in heavily too. As a Verizon shop, the majority of our smart-phone users were on Android devices until VZW offered the iPhone. Now there is rough parity, with the advantage going to Apple. So anecdotal evidence suggests to me that this may be a more widespread trend than just at our shop.

All of these things combined lead me to believe that we'll see a lot more back and forth and the kind of parity the author describes in 2012 between the two platforms. Android is also besieged with patent lawsuits and other challenges that do not affect iOS and make the Android future uncertain.

I'm not iOS pundit - ask Vulpine or any number of readers who have ever implied that I am an Android shill. Android and Android device manufacturers have a lot of things to get in order in 2012. There is no doubt in my mind that Android has more potential and is a better long-term deal for the consumer - but that won't matter if they can't overcome some of their perceptual and actual challenges in the short term.
Contributr
Posted by dcolbert@...
20th Jan 2012