Android is destined for forking and fragmentation just as Linux is. But iOS is destined to experience the same fragmentation, originating from its unavoidable evolution. Apple is just a hardware manufacturer and will soon face the challenge of how to bring in new devices without breaking the platform uniformity.
When MS was killing Kin, Windows Mobile 6.x etc, everybody thought they were crazy. Well, they were not. Everybody owning a Windows Phone 7 device at this point, is using the same version. Yes, through a difficult first year of problems, Microsoft has ironed out the upgrade process of each and every windows phone through a complex mechanism involving Microsoft, Manufacturers and Carriers.
What MS has done is WAY more than what people know about... They have paved the way of mobile OS lifecycle management, and they've been designing this since the introduction of the first iPhone. (yes, exactly, you can imagine how many steps ahead they already are).
This is why they will prevail once more. They learned from their mistakes and they've been designing the future of mobile OS, since the day one of iPhone, when Android was not even an idea.
I am not going to brag about how good Windows Phone is. The only thing I'am saying is that the process behind it is well thought and tested for one year already. I don't believe Google or Apple can do much now to reverse their dead-end situation. Both of them have already failed to model the mobile OS lifecycle, as they have failed to take into consideration all aspects of this business. In the short-term, yes, it is possible to be successful without having to take into account all aspects. This is what is happening now... Android booms and iPhone keeps up because there is still not a lot of fragmentation...
It may take two or more years for Microsoft to reestablish confidence among consumers, but they will make it since they have introduced a killing product with a killing lifecycle management and support behind it. (Not to mention the killing and free tools for development).
It takes millions of persondays of effort to achieve this. Not everything is a matter of technology... You can make Metro UI lookalike apps on your Android or iPhone but you just cannot copy effort, discussions, agreements, testing, collaboration, rules, business model put in behind what Windows Phone is.
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