Amen.
Jason Hiner has demonstrated repeatedly that he doesn't have much insight to offer. He's off-base on almost every opinion he offers, and is becoming the Armond White of the tech world. His take on Siri a couple weeks back was laughable. Honestly, I'm not sure why I keep getting the newsletter, other than for entertainment purposes.
Back to Facebook: it could potentially fail as a public company, and it could potentially be replaced by a competitor in a few years. (Though it'll be a bit hard to replace nearly a billion users -- as Google is finding out -- a minor fact that Hiner mostly dismisses.) But a few things that need to be set straight:
a) Social media is a "fad" on the same level as the cell phones or television. Sure, it will look differently in a few years, but it's not going *anywhere*. To those of you who are saying this: don't be an idiot.
b) Hiner is correct in applauding Facebook's technology and infrastructure -- which might have been reproducible a few years ago, but are now to the point where few can come close (aside of major players like Google, who is having a hard time of it themselves). It's not easy to reliably serve a billion users.
c) People want to be where people are. If Facebook can avoid pissing off the masses (and so far, the masses have proven remarkably unmoved by Facebook's gaffes), they're probably safe. Sure, some teens will migrate off for awhile, mostly to piss off their parents. Teens are fickle. But Facebook's demographic has progressively grown older, and most adults (myself included) have no tolerance for "rebuilding" everything we've already built at Facebook -- friend lists, photo albums, games/apps/website logins. It's all there...and unless I'm really ticked off, why move? (And to where would I move? Google+ is a ghost town in comparison.)
d) Despite the fact that Facebook has grown increasingly bloated, it is still a fantastic site. Its user experience is still better than most of the web -- and most sites aren't managing even 20% of the data that Facebook is handling on a single page. (As far as mobile, I wouldn't characterize them as failing, although performance -- especially in their apps -- has suffered mightily as of late.)
So the Facebook hype train is chugging down the track, and it will probably hit some rough patches in the year ahead. But Hiner, be serious...the hype is not entirely without reason or, for that matter, massive potential.
