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Yeah, I think your right, but it's massive popularity will at least postpone it's death...
Goes to show people will stuff anything down their throats no matter how bad it is for you! Remember Morgan...
I am not so sure Facebook is just air. Here is my logic. The fundamental problem of the internet, known since its conception, is adressing. How do you find machine X in a pool of millions or billions. The problem of mapping a name with some meaning, to a machine identifier.
The first solution was the domain name system. A name with meaning such as the name of a company or the name of a product etc. which could be part of a brand was mapped to an IP adress.
A fundamental problem is the limited nature of this adressing scheme, unless you increase the length of the names to unwieldy levels, such as it is today. It is still a problem of branding, however.
The second solution is represented by Google: to understand the underlying meaning of a site, in terms that a searcher understands at some perhaps even unconscious level. You write some half-baked search term thinking you know what you mean, and Google figures out what you really mean and maps your blathering to a site on some specific machine. You could call this "semantic" search, as it is really trying to get to the bottom of meaning. All those Ph.D.'s over at Google .... Having understood your intended meaning, advertisers are ready to jump in and satisfy you.
Facebook can be seen as yet another method of dealing with the problem of adressing. From the point of view of an advertiser, what matters in Facebook is the emotion of liking something. So it is a network of "emotional" addressing. This is of course of great interest to advertisers as well. People search for things that they might "like" .
Why not? We search for things all the time by name, by significance, by emotion. They are three not mutually exclusive ways to orient oneself. So I think that Facebook as a search engine potentially has a future. It is not really just about photos or games.
Whether it is worth 75 or 100 billiion in 2012, that is another question.
The first solution was the domain name system. A name with meaning such as the name of a company or the name of a product etc. which could be part of a brand was mapped to an IP adress.
A fundamental problem is the limited nature of this adressing scheme, unless you increase the length of the names to unwieldy levels, such as it is today. It is still a problem of branding, however.
The second solution is represented by Google: to understand the underlying meaning of a site, in terms that a searcher understands at some perhaps even unconscious level. You write some half-baked search term thinking you know what you mean, and Google figures out what you really mean and maps your blathering to a site on some specific machine. You could call this "semantic" search, as it is really trying to get to the bottom of meaning. All those Ph.D.'s over at Google .... Having understood your intended meaning, advertisers are ready to jump in and satisfy you.
Facebook can be seen as yet another method of dealing with the problem of adressing. From the point of view of an advertiser, what matters in Facebook is the emotion of liking something. So it is a network of "emotional" addressing. This is of course of great interest to advertisers as well. People search for things that they might "like" .
Why not? We search for things all the time by name, by significance, by emotion. They are three not mutually exclusive ways to orient oneself. So I think that Facebook as a search engine potentially has a future. It is not really just about photos or games.
Whether it is worth 75 or 100 billiion in 2012, that is another question.
Facebook is among the most visited and more importantly stickiest sites on the inernet. The have an ad engine that allowes targeted marketing based on content that users gladly share. Gaming is a money maker but the ral money is in advertising...sounds like a business model that worked for Google. If you take a moment to get beyond the consumer and look at the busines you will see the value of a long term investment.
Unfortunately you need to focus on consumers. If they leave in large numbers, you're advertisers won't be so keen any more.
I read a great little ditty a while back called Chavbook which casts an admiring eye towards the Zucker' for being intelligent enough to spot the narcissists who need it and once signed up, they become addicted to the point where a cottage industry of rehab centres is required. The article also, probably unfairly, compares the majority of users to the Burberry cap wearing fraternity. If this perception of the site and it's inhabitants becomes popular I wonder if a mass switch-over would be realistic. Look at how hard Burberry tried to change it's image.
On the point of fad's and fashions, I asked the 13 year old son of a friend of mine if he would be spending his hard earned on now that he has a job. He replied, "Oh a tablet I should think" to which I subconciously rolled my eyes and said, "another iPad user in the making, then!". His response brightened my day when his face screwed up as he said, "No way, DAD'S got one of those".
Tekkies always know when something in the industry is a rip-off (how many times in the recent past have you thought, "I know, I've been trying to tell you for 10 years but you wouldn't listen!" as another iSomething is thrust under your nose with the accompanying exclamation, "just look at what this does!") and some have longevity and some don't. Apple iTech is I.M.H.O. a rip off but at least, in general it's a nice looking product set with useful functionality. The same can't be said for Facebook and I wonder when, as with the likes of lastminute.com everyone will wake up.
On the point of fad's and fashions, I asked the 13 year old son of a friend of mine if he would be spending his hard earned on now that he has a job. He replied, "Oh a tablet I should think" to which I subconciously rolled my eyes and said, "another iPad user in the making, then!". His response brightened my day when his face screwed up as he said, "No way, DAD'S got one of those".
Tekkies always know when something in the industry is a rip-off (how many times in the recent past have you thought, "I know, I've been trying to tell you for 10 years but you wouldn't listen!" as another iSomething is thrust under your nose with the accompanying exclamation, "just look at what this does!") and some have longevity and some don't. Apple iTech is I.M.H.O. a rip off but at least, in general it's a nice looking product set with useful functionality. The same can't be said for Facebook and I wonder when, as with the likes of lastminute.com everyone will wake up.
I remember when MySpace was cool. Facebook is just another fad. A new website attracts some users. The users tell their friends. The website becomes immensely popular. The media, business, and pontificating legislators jump on the band wagon and try to make hay out of it. The pioneering users who first found the website grow weary of it and move on. With time, everyone becomes disenchanted and moves onto the next cool thing.
Personally, I can't get excited about Facebook. The interface is dreadful. My loved ones and the others that I've "friended" talk a load of sh*te half the time (i.e., I had pizza for breakfast. Yum!") The so-called "games" are tedious. (Go on and ask me 20 stupid questions about someone I care for: Are they ugly? Do they need to come out of the closet? Are they brats? Are they cute? If I answer "yes" to the insulting questions, will they "unfriend" me?) I can't think of a better way to waste time than to spend it on Facebook.
I don't see this as having much staying power in the long run.
Personally, I can't get excited about Facebook. The interface is dreadful. My loved ones and the others that I've "friended" talk a load of sh*te half the time (i.e., I had pizza for breakfast. Yum!") The so-called "games" are tedious. (Go on and ask me 20 stupid questions about someone I care for: Are they ugly? Do they need to come out of the closet? Are they brats? Are they cute? If I answer "yes" to the insulting questions, will they "unfriend" me?) I can't think of a better way to waste time than to spend it on Facebook.
I don't see this as having much staying power in the long run.
sissy sue, Investing in the teen market is very tricky, because it changes so fast
Frankly, I think MySpace's concept is more what young adults want: noisy and flashy
All that would have to be changed is for a young programmer coming up with a way to keep parents out of certain things of an account -- One thought is there should be levels or something like that and presented in such a way parents, boyfriends and girlfriends, etc, would NOT know about these levels
There would be a generic All level, but you and I, for example, could have a sub level we could share with friends when we wanted discuss last nite's drug and drinking orgy
Besides all this, FB's moat is simply not very deep to keep away attacks by the other money boys and girls of Wall Street
Google's moat, for example, is its constantly updated secret data base
Frankly, I think MySpace's concept is more what young adults want: noisy and flashy
All that would have to be changed is for a young programmer coming up with a way to keep parents out of certain things of an account -- One thought is there should be levels or something like that and presented in such a way parents, boyfriends and girlfriends, etc, would NOT know about these levels
There would be a generic All level, but you and I, for example, could have a sub level we could share with friends when we wanted discuss last nite's drug and drinking orgy
Besides all this, FB's moat is simply not very deep to keep away attacks by the other money boys and girls of Wall Street
Google's moat, for example, is its constantly updated secret data base
Ask Murdoch what hundreds of millions of users are worth. The answer is not much. Let's be honest, when young people figure out that their parents and grandparents also have a Facebook page, it is time to find the next real cool thing. Facebook might be mighty big right now, next year this time it might be different.
Er, so 'young people' the sort that gets embarrassed merely by the association of parents and grandparents, lets say teenagers with comparitavely little disposable income, are leaving.
Because...
The parents and grandparents, presumably with alot more disposable income are joining up in droves (well, someones making up the hundreds of millions).
You think Facebook is going down?
It's not a fad.
It is way beyond critical mass for social networking (something that is with us to stay) Anyone wanting to join a social networking site is going to join the one that has most of their friends and family on. So it feeds itself. How would you persuade enough people to move to a different site AND cancel their facebook accounts all at the same time so the balance is tipped in favour of the new site? 800 million is a big number to tip! It's in the worlds conciousness, people who don't use computers, let alone use Facebook, know what Facebook is. It's a free personal directory for the masses and the worlds favourite waste of time.
Because...
The parents and grandparents, presumably with alot more disposable income are joining up in droves (well, someones making up the hundreds of millions).
You think Facebook is going down?
It's not a fad.
It is way beyond critical mass for social networking (something that is with us to stay) Anyone wanting to join a social networking site is going to join the one that has most of their friends and family on. So it feeds itself. How would you persuade enough people to move to a different site AND cancel their facebook accounts all at the same time so the balance is tipped in favour of the new site? 800 million is a big number to tip! It's in the worlds conciousness, people who don't use computers, let alone use Facebook, know what Facebook is. It's a free personal directory for the masses and the worlds favourite waste of time.
I think you should stop making predictions. You're gonna be 0/2 soon. You're missing the point about Facebook, which there are two: Data and Identification. There's a data matrix of information stored in FB that's more valuable than platinum: advertisement. vs. spending pattern vs. online activity vs. who people know. Never mind what the front end is...that's a money maker. Beyond data, there's the who concept of who you are. What if Banks start giving out better rates to those that sign-up for an offer via FB because financial institutions can easily see who you are, how long you've been around and what you've done. Instant proof of the individual. What if you don't get a deal on that new car that others did because you didn't 'like' them on FB? Angry yet? Ok, now what if a FB id replaces smart chips on your Visa? Sure, crazy ideas...are they? If you have no idea of the potential of this type of IPO offering, stop making crazy predictions.
One thing I see over and over again is how Facebook is commercially tied into advertising, informational sites, and the consumer capability to "Like" something, or not. The power this gives millions of faceless individuals, combined with the Pavlov effect of seeing and pushing that "Like" icon seems to me to be underestimated. Facebook has become quite ubiquitous - I have never been interested in having a Facebook presence; however, it's almost a neccessity if you want to, for instance, put up a website for your musical group or small business, so you can be "Liked" and draw more attention. It will be very interesting to see where this goes. Somehow, I think this public offering will make some serious dinero - at least, initially.
Am I the only one who is sick of this fad? Facebook is everywhere--and now almost every web site offers the viewer to "log in with Facebook". It was amusing at first, but then it became ridiculous. Almost every business feels it must have the obligatory Facebook page. I agree with others in that as a photo sharing site, it's certainly not among the best and doesn't come close to those dedicated to photo uploading and sharing.
The gaming--there are a number of excellent gaming websites out there. I am a member of one and the variety of types of games, as well as the quality, are so very far advanced over anything Facebook offers. For a small monthly fee, I can play anything from solitaire to extremely engaging and difficult large file games that cause one to really give the brain cells a workout.
I think the author is right about teens abandoning the site now that their parents have hopped aboard. Teens are notoriously fickle. And also something that hasn't been addressed--Facebook can be instrumental in helping those with less than honest intentions have a field day and make life miserable for a lot of people.
Personally, Facebook can't fall out of the public's favor soon enough. As for buying stock in the phenomenon--don't waste your money. In this day and age, things come and go at a blurring rate. It's not worth the risk. Thanks for giving me space to vent!
The gaming--there are a number of excellent gaming websites out there. I am a member of one and the variety of types of games, as well as the quality, are so very far advanced over anything Facebook offers. For a small monthly fee, I can play anything from solitaire to extremely engaging and difficult large file games that cause one to really give the brain cells a workout.
I think the author is right about teens abandoning the site now that their parents have hopped aboard. Teens are notoriously fickle. And also something that hasn't been addressed--Facebook can be instrumental in helping those with less than honest intentions have a field day and make life miserable for a lot of people.
Personally, Facebook can't fall out of the public's favor soon enough. As for buying stock in the phenomenon--don't waste your money. In this day and age, things come and go at a blurring rate. It's not worth the risk. Thanks for giving me space to vent!
There is nothing that would please me more than to see facebook, google and Microsoft along with many other big corps like GE go down the toilet like a big piece of feces. These companies are too powerful too greedy and have too much control over people's life. The are destroying America as a free nation. It made my mouth water just by reading the title. To think that so many Americans just think there's nothing we can do about it... we just have to go along with it. That's not what the revolutionaries said in the revolutionary war.
There is nothing that could please me more than to see Facebook, google and Microsoft along with many other big corps. like GE go down the toilet like a big piece of feces. These companies have too much power. They have too much influence over peoples lives and small business. They are in bed with the politicians making it impossible for small business to survive. They are ruining America as a free nation. We the people are a bunch of suckers. It amazes me that every one has the attitude that they can't do anything about it. It's like a nation of zombies checking themselves in to slave prison camps.
Facebook isn't a gaming site and I'm pretty sure these days teens make up a small minority of users. It is a free, self sustaining and updating personal directory/address book with pictures and details about what your nearest and dearest are up to should you wish to be nosey and/or want to be in touch with them. Everyone is on Facebook because...everyone is on Facebook! Way beyond critical mass, something no other networking site has achieved. And, in your own words, it's everywhere. An uber monopoly on social networking. Do you really think a site will emerge that manages to get 400 million facebook users to jump ship AND cancel their facebook accounts all in one go to tip the balance in favour of that site? Not to mention the power and resources Facebook now has to keep up with the trends and new tech. Or maybe you think social networking is a fad and will die away? The only other thing I can think of is if Facebook starts charging for membership. Well, considering how much time and data the everyday person invests the site maybe that's no so far fetched. Don't think they're that stupid though.
This is quite possibly the largest database of "human" information in the world. Something that a lot of companies and "sellers of goods" want their hands on and in. Where else can you find out that a 35 year old white male from Nebraska likes this or that? Trends, tendencies, likes, dislikes, are all marketing dreams and companies pay big bucks to know this kind of information about all of the demographics. As long as people use facebook, facebook is relevant. And as long as facebook can sell your info to other companies, they will be a profitable company.
Facebook knows exactly what you like, what you don't like, when you are awake, when you are sleeping, how often you are online, how many friends you have, where you are going and where you have been. This information is like gold.
Facebook knows exactly what you like, what you don't like, when you are awake, when you are sleeping, how often you are online, how many friends you have, where you are going and where you have been. This information is like gold.
Interesting comments about the social media aspects of Facebook, but noone has mentioned that today, thousands (millions?) of small businesses, groups, artists, muscians and many more are running their businesses using Facebook! When it comes to connecting to your customers, organizing events and boosting attendence, and simply reaching people with like interests from around the world, Facebook just can't be beat. This is why the market is seeing so much value in this IPO. Social media is NOT a fad it is the way business is done, here and now.
I've been puzzled by the timing and delay of the IPO. Jason Hiner's last paragraph about a surprise development would make a lot of sense, as a breakthrough a few months after an IPO is the best way in the financial world to overcome the inevitable drop in the stock price that follows the first wave of enthusiasm.
So, you don't think that if the US passes internet gambling that facebook won't be poised to really start raking in the dough?
Many great comments, but the point of all this is Facebook, not just social media. Facebook is about to IPO, and what's the ROI, and for how long can you ride that train? It will make a killing on shear hype, but it's a worthless stock the moment it hits. If you invest in Facebook, unless you are marketing to children (mostly teens), no product will ever sell off their site, the numbers just are not there. People are there to chit-chat, share small amounts of info and like Jay Garmon mentions in comment to this, Facebook users are online to say ???Me Too??? 2.0, like the AOL of old. They may hit a like button, they may visit a band or a product Facebook page, but they???re not leaving Facebook to go look into your product, they're not here for that and as advertisers eventually leave, Facebook and its stock will tank.
Don't get caught in the waterfall of selling and shorting.
Don't get caught in the waterfall of selling and shorting.
As I come from a gaming background, it seems ironic to me that social media sites mirror online games in their adoption and stability. Conceptually, this isn't surprising. Social media, in essence, IS a game; it's just one where the "avatar" is a version (and rarely a particularly accurate one) of yourself. Things build, plateau, and often succeed despite a seeming dissatisfaction among their own user base. As one of the main drivers is user-base or community, after the peak from early "buzz" games and media sites tend to succeed based on their previous success. Users/players stay because they have built up familiarity or "legacy", often long after they cease enjoying the product itself.
The barrier to entry for social media markets seems to be far lower than for gaming, mostly due to the broad stroke of the term "social media". The "next new thing" can be derivative or completely unexpected. Given the clientele feeds off the very "hip"ness (to the point one of Facebook's biggest drawbacks to many is its high-adoption and mainstream familiarity), it could swing the other direction in a flash. One thing Facebook does seem to do well is figure out quickly what the next trends are and incorporate them, such that they need not be mutually exclusive.
If computer gaming has taught one thing, it's that trying to build a better mousetrap is foolish. In the social media market, this seems exponentially deeper. Facebook won't fall to "the next Facebook" (yes, I know Myspace had a similar aim that Facebook overbore, but it's really a bad comparison). It will fail to the first of something new, or eventually die of old age (its already having adoption issues among teenagers, as it's been labelled even such things as a "dinosaur" in articles I've seen), collaborative dissent (Zynga's relationship with Facebook is "tense" at best, and the application/gaming business is driving much of Facebook's revenue with Zynga still close to the top), or what I'll term "technical schizophrenia" (in which a product changes so much in so many directions over its run that the original intent is lost, the product's features hamper each other, and the various single-feature-driven-factions within the community clash violently). Either way, it'll be an interesting watch.
The barrier to entry for social media markets seems to be far lower than for gaming, mostly due to the broad stroke of the term "social media". The "next new thing" can be derivative or completely unexpected. Given the clientele feeds off the very "hip"ness (to the point one of Facebook's biggest drawbacks to many is its high-adoption and mainstream familiarity), it could swing the other direction in a flash. One thing Facebook does seem to do well is figure out quickly what the next trends are and incorporate them, such that they need not be mutually exclusive.
If computer gaming has taught one thing, it's that trying to build a better mousetrap is foolish. In the social media market, this seems exponentially deeper. Facebook won't fall to "the next Facebook" (yes, I know Myspace had a similar aim that Facebook overbore, but it's really a bad comparison). It will fail to the first of something new, or eventually die of old age (its already having adoption issues among teenagers, as it's been labelled even such things as a "dinosaur" in articles I've seen), collaborative dissent (Zynga's relationship with Facebook is "tense" at best, and the application/gaming business is driving much of Facebook's revenue with Zynga still close to the top), or what I'll term "technical schizophrenia" (in which a product changes so much in so many directions over its run that the original intent is lost, the product's features hamper each other, and the various single-feature-driven-factions within the community clash violently). Either way, it'll be an interesting watch.
I think Facebook will live and die based on who is able to make the best HTML5-based social media site. If it's Facebook, it will continue to be the dominant social media site for awhile. If not, it will die and on that basis I'm not buying their stock because it could be Myspace or Google+ or company X as yet unheard of. It could even be Microsoft, they could do something clever with Xbox Live. No way would I bet money on Facebook yet.
I think the writer missed a few points. Because of the 800+ Million users just like say walmart that buys a gazillion of products to control demand + price point they can dictate certain markets. He also misses the other reasons people use facebook. Where I work @ which is a high end fashion company with 10,000+ employees we employ facebook as a marketing tool to reach our customers. Its free and we have integrated it into our email sig/ Intranet and various other places we use this tool. I personally as a side business have a marketing/promotion company that like many other promoters use facebook to reach out to the huge user base to get our product/ message out (weekly club events/concerts/etc). As long as the user base does not shrink and their site is not buggy like myspace became (however I feel management/fox corp was their biggest issue) then I see them being a force to reckon with, especially since they are integrated into many other websites where you can use your facebook log in to comment and like things without creating another account. Ease of access is huge. Look at Apple, while I think windows is superior with Windows opposed to Lion/OSX, Apple has way easier usability for the normal user. Look how well they are doing. Not too mention Facebook focus on mobile, they have a plan not sure how long they will be around but there is def a plan for longevity in place.
it might be over priced. it might be a fad. and it may even be a bubble. but the bottom line is that for the time being, people need to cash in and take advantage of the frenzy.
you guys are totally missing the point here. it is about a new way to communicate. it is the new telephone and is immensely popular because of it. finally, it is software for girls that has roped in a previously largely disengaged, disaffected and technophobic demographic.
You pay a fee to your carrier to make a phone call. That's where they make the profit. Facebook doesn't get paid per post.
"Facebook is a badly overpriced photo-sharing and gaming site" - it seems you missed the essentials about facebook.What is amazing is that everyone us fb however and , basically, for what they want it.From stayong up to date with your interests to photo sharing and games
i thought that i was the only person who doesn't appreciate facebook. the facts i just read are shocking and indeed every facebook user needs to read this. thanks alot for that posting.but please can you also suggest other social networks that seems better. thanks
40% of the newsletter above the fold is your picture, your social media handles, and a block of text describing the newsletter as all about your picks and blah blah. That section on the right top of the email is larger than your 2 article teases. Let's be honest, if it wasn't so egregiously self-interested and self-promoting, I wouldn't be in the awkward position to point out the painfully obvious.
In my inbox, all day every day, "Welcome to the Jason Hiner Show. Oh, and here are a few articles you probably saw in one of my other newsletters earlier today or yesterday or the day before that. but it's all good. Here's how to be my fan, in case you didn't catch that on the other newsletters. Ok, ok, these really aren't newsletters, per se, but anyway catch me on Facebook and Twitter and never, ever forget who runs this joint."
Just food for thought, if you were curious how your readers perceive your material. BTW, what was this article about again?
In my inbox, all day every day, "Welcome to the Jason Hiner Show. Oh, and here are a few articles you probably saw in one of my other newsletters earlier today or yesterday or the day before that. but it's all good. Here's how to be my fan, in case you didn't catch that on the other newsletters. Ok, ok, these really aren't newsletters, per se, but anyway catch me on Facebook and Twitter and never, ever forget who runs this joint."
Just food for thought, if you were curious how your readers perceive your material. BTW, what was this article about again?
A couple thoughts on your "ten" list...
1.Its own users have very little trust in the company
- can't agree 100% but don't know
2.The sites ease-of-use is among the worst on the web
- chuckle - it's not great but not the worst by far
3.The user experience doesnt translate well to smartphones and tablets
- totally disagree - I run the web version on my Transformer and it works very well
4.Teens are jumping to other social networks now that their parents are on Facebook
- not true - mine just made new other pages for them and their friends. I asked them and their friend do the same. More than one FB page is not uncommon.
5.A lot of Facebooks stickiness is based on games from third party companies
- for some but not all. of my 4 kids, only one does games. mostly socializing. Most of their friends do not do gaming. small sample but this is a West LA group; one of the "socializing" capitals of the world.
6.Photo sharing is a major part of its activity, but doesnt generate revenue
- an eclectic mix of photo / comment
7.It has already maxed out its user base in developed countries
- getting close, yes. It is engulfing all other social network sites globally
8.Its highly doubtful that it will get a chance to compete in China
- don't bet on it. I suspect a way will be found
9.Its financials look a lot more like Yahoo than Google
- very true - earnings to share cost are a far cry from Google
10.It has to fight the natural cycle of social networks dying and being replaced
- doubtful. I cannot ever recall seeing a "social" network quite like this ever before.
Personally I think this is a different animal with some new surprises coming....
1.Its own users have very little trust in the company
- can't agree 100% but don't know
2.The sites ease-of-use is among the worst on the web
- chuckle - it's not great but not the worst by far
3.The user experience doesnt translate well to smartphones and tablets
- totally disagree - I run the web version on my Transformer and it works very well
4.Teens are jumping to other social networks now that their parents are on Facebook
- not true - mine just made new other pages for them and their friends. I asked them and their friend do the same. More than one FB page is not uncommon.
5.A lot of Facebooks stickiness is based on games from third party companies
- for some but not all. of my 4 kids, only one does games. mostly socializing. Most of their friends do not do gaming. small sample but this is a West LA group; one of the "socializing" capitals of the world.
6.Photo sharing is a major part of its activity, but doesnt generate revenue
- an eclectic mix of photo / comment
7.It has already maxed out its user base in developed countries
- getting close, yes. It is engulfing all other social network sites globally
8.Its highly doubtful that it will get a chance to compete in China
- don't bet on it. I suspect a way will be found
9.Its financials look a lot more like Yahoo than Google
- very true - earnings to share cost are a far cry from Google
10.It has to fight the natural cycle of social networks dying and being replaced
- doubtful. I cannot ever recall seeing a "social" network quite like this ever before.
Personally I think this is a different animal with some new surprises coming....
What if an alien culture used Facebook as a source of intelligence prior to harvesting us?
Facebook is highly priced IPO for a reason, it is extremely valuable. Facebook makes money from data mining. It has an extremely large user base, who gives it valuable information for free.
Facebook sells that extremely valuable information to advertisers, sociologists, product designers, investors, anyone that needs accurate demographics.
The zynga games are there to attract the users who will freely give their information to Facebook.
I'm surprised how many people don't understand how Facebook makes it's money.
Advertising is only a small part of Facebook's revenue stream.
Facebook sells that extremely valuable information to advertisers, sociologists, product designers, investors, anyone that needs accurate demographics.
The zynga games are there to attract the users who will freely give their information to Facebook.
I'm surprised how many people don't understand how Facebook makes it's money.
Advertising is only a small part of Facebook's revenue stream.
I'd read somewhere -- or perhaps hallucinated it -- that all those annoying little gamelets that people used to try and get you to involve yourself in -- Animal Farm, Flower Farm, Pot Farm, Mafia, Government Snitch, whatever -- are A (and I think this goes without saying) address-harvesters to generate lists of "targeted-marketing-suckers," that are sold to various corporate interests who want to pick your pocket; and B (which I'm obviously NOT so sure about, but it makes perfect sense), owned and operated worldwide by the Russian Mafia, which seems to have all along been WAY ahead of American and Italian organized crime in finding little niche markets online that SEEM tiny and innocuous in the vast spaces of the net, but, as Raymond Chandler wrote (I sloppily paraphrase) "It's not the big-time gamblers that make gambling pay, it's the penny grifters who stop off on the way home from work and give their rent money to the numbers racketeers(modern-day "perfectly legal" but tragically immoral "Lotto" ticket sellers or the Indian Casinos."
Anybody else heard this?
What ISN'T total BS that I know for an all-too-solid fact is that there is no quicker or more miserable way I've ever seen to foment family disruption, argument, rage, and even violence than FB. My personal opinion is that if your brain is so turned to mush that you feel the need to live your life out on FB or MySpace, you may as well watch American Jersey Pigs and eat the gas pipe NOW. I have nothing to do with this movie (wish I did!), but for a new cinematic examination of the current state of American Society, may I highly recommend the vastly under-rated Bobcat Goldthwait's new film "God Bless America." (http://www.hulu.com/watch/323440/movie-trailers-god-bless-america). It has a lot in common with the 1993 Michael Douglas movie "Falling Down," but without the obligatory stupidly moralizing "had to end this way." Instead, Goldthwait has "God Bless America" end the way WE'd probably write it. The whole spirit of it is -- if you can remember this far back, 1977 -- exactly in the vein of the scene from "Annie Hall" where Woody Allen and Diane Keaton are waiting in line for a movie, and some "yuppie" (a '70s term, kids!) blowhard begins expostulating -- loudly -- on the works of Marshall McLuhan. Woody turns to the camera and says, exasperatedly, "What I wouldn't give for a large sock with horse-manure in it." Moving directly into the camera, Allen throws his hands up and says "Whattaya do when you get in a movie line with a guy like this behind you?" Whereupon the guy also walks towards the camera and complains "Why can't I give MY opinion? It's a free country..." Woody remonstrates with him about being such a loud blowhard, and finally: "And the funny part of it is... Marshall McLuhan... Marshall McLuhan... you don't know ANYTHING about Marshall McLuhan's work." To which the guy responds, hands on hip, with "Really? Really? I happen to teach a class at Columbia on 'TV Media and Culture.' I feel MY insights into Mr. McLuhan have a GREAT deal of validity."
Woody: "oh, do ya? Because I happen to have Mr. McLuhan right here." Woody looks directly at the camera and jerks his left thumb... uhh.. leftwards, and continues "So... so... yeah... just lemme..." Woody walks over to a large signboard (hidden by the film the frame until now) in the theatre lobby and reaches behind it, beckons the blowhard over with a curl of his right finger and says "come over here for a second," while tugging on the sleeve of a tall, scholarly-looking gentleman in tweeds who has been hidden by the signboard. It IS, of course, Marshall McLuhan, hands in pockets. He leans over Woody to look at the blowhard (McLuhan is about a foot taller than Woody) and says, haltingly and incredulously: "I heard.. I heard what you were saying. You... you know nothing of my work. You mean my whole fallacy is wrong. How you ever got to teach a course in anything is totally amazing." At which point Woody looks directly into the camera with a rueful smile and says "Boy, if life were ONLY like this..." And finally, McLuhan quietly cracks up.
Well, the blowhard in the theatre line strikes me as exactly the sort of person who today would be living their entire lives on FaceBook, and Goldthwait's movie suggests what seems to be -- alas! -- the only remedy.
Anybody else heard this?
What ISN'T total BS that I know for an all-too-solid fact is that there is no quicker or more miserable way I've ever seen to foment family disruption, argument, rage, and even violence than FB. My personal opinion is that if your brain is so turned to mush that you feel the need to live your life out on FB or MySpace, you may as well watch American Jersey Pigs and eat the gas pipe NOW. I have nothing to do with this movie (wish I did!), but for a new cinematic examination of the current state of American Society, may I highly recommend the vastly under-rated Bobcat Goldthwait's new film "God Bless America." (http://www.hulu.com/watch/323440/movie-trailers-god-bless-america). It has a lot in common with the 1993 Michael Douglas movie "Falling Down," but without the obligatory stupidly moralizing "had to end this way." Instead, Goldthwait has "God Bless America" end the way WE'd probably write it. The whole spirit of it is -- if you can remember this far back, 1977 -- exactly in the vein of the scene from "Annie Hall" where Woody Allen and Diane Keaton are waiting in line for a movie, and some "yuppie" (a '70s term, kids!) blowhard begins expostulating -- loudly -- on the works of Marshall McLuhan. Woody turns to the camera and says, exasperatedly, "What I wouldn't give for a large sock with horse-manure in it." Moving directly into the camera, Allen throws his hands up and says "Whattaya do when you get in a movie line with a guy like this behind you?" Whereupon the guy also walks towards the camera and complains "Why can't I give MY opinion? It's a free country..." Woody remonstrates with him about being such a loud blowhard, and finally: "And the funny part of it is... Marshall McLuhan... Marshall McLuhan... you don't know ANYTHING about Marshall McLuhan's work." To which the guy responds, hands on hip, with "Really? Really? I happen to teach a class at Columbia on 'TV Media and Culture.' I feel MY insights into Mr. McLuhan have a GREAT deal of validity."
Woody: "oh, do ya? Because I happen to have Mr. McLuhan right here." Woody looks directly at the camera and jerks his left thumb... uhh.. leftwards, and continues "So... so... yeah... just lemme..." Woody walks over to a large signboard (hidden by the film the frame until now) in the theatre lobby and reaches behind it, beckons the blowhard over with a curl of his right finger and says "come over here for a second," while tugging on the sleeve of a tall, scholarly-looking gentleman in tweeds who has been hidden by the signboard. It IS, of course, Marshall McLuhan, hands in pockets. He leans over Woody to look at the blowhard (McLuhan is about a foot taller than Woody) and says, haltingly and incredulously: "I heard.. I heard what you were saying. You... you know nothing of my work. You mean my whole fallacy is wrong. How you ever got to teach a course in anything is totally amazing." At which point Woody looks directly into the camera with a rueful smile and says "Boy, if life were ONLY like this..." And finally, McLuhan quietly cracks up.
Well, the blowhard in the theatre line strikes me as exactly the sort of person who today would be living their entire lives on FaceBook, and Goldthwait's movie suggests what seems to be -- alas! -- the only remedy.
First it was the humble BBS, low investment, no advertising to speak of - replaced by CompuServe. CompuServe had the content and the users + the global network. But they were owned by ultra conservative H&R Block and while technicly more advanced than AOL, could not manage to communicate this to users. I.E. they had 19.2 and 56k modems 90% rolled out years before AOL but advertised nothing because it was not 100%. AOL hyped their access speeds at a time when they had perhaps 10% running at then high speeds! AOL out advertised them. Then CompuServe came out with "WOW." A supposed game changer that was released in 640x480 resolution at a time when everyone was proud to own their new 1024x768 monitors. Their conservative oligarchy of Rob Vance and Steven Whilhite then refused to integrate with the internet in any way even while CompuServe bought Spry, the then only profitable browser company! This solidified their true conservative nature and killed them.
AOL then was on top. They ran on a single computer system and were truly a single self contained system. Though this helped them to rollout global changes in the past, it made them myopic and anti internet. Though they tried some, they had a culture that simply could not adjust to the internet. Their philosophy was to conqure the internet. Thinking they could continue by advertising how cool they were just as they had done to conqure CompuServe, they failed to realise that they were effectively advertising against EVERYONE now since everyone was quickly launching themselves onto the internet.
Again, HYPE won the day! AOL out hyped CompuServe. The Internet out hyped AOL.
Enter FaceBook like MySpace and others before, they created a buzz and a sense of coolness. With marketing that could only be conceived through the university system they took the world by storm. They are loosing that buzz quickly as corporations take over and try to leverage that buzz into cash. Just as the internet was designed to be unstoppable, after all everyone with two connections by design starts routing internet traffic, some one else will come along with a better way to create buzz. It is after all ALL HYPE. CompuServe out hyped BBS systems. AOL outhyped CompuServe. The internet out hyped AOL.
There is a fundamental change here though. Because the basic framework is now more solidified, it is now even more just a matter of hype. FaceBook runs on top of the internet. The next system will as well.
Now for a guess - if governments make the internet a locked down system under their control, it will take the conservative reigns and will need to be replaced by a new "undernet." A global network that cannot be regulated - this will be the next great HYPE. All the old internet hardware is there and it could be built quickly with modest changes. The internet was created as a government tool. Perhaps it will end that way as well. Information will not be contained for long. Long live the "undernet!"
AOL then was on top. They ran on a single computer system and were truly a single self contained system. Though this helped them to rollout global changes in the past, it made them myopic and anti internet. Though they tried some, they had a culture that simply could not adjust to the internet. Their philosophy was to conqure the internet. Thinking they could continue by advertising how cool they were just as they had done to conqure CompuServe, they failed to realise that they were effectively advertising against EVERYONE now since everyone was quickly launching themselves onto the internet.
Again, HYPE won the day! AOL out hyped CompuServe. The Internet out hyped AOL.
Enter FaceBook like MySpace and others before, they created a buzz and a sense of coolness. With marketing that could only be conceived through the university system they took the world by storm. They are loosing that buzz quickly as corporations take over and try to leverage that buzz into cash. Just as the internet was designed to be unstoppable, after all everyone with two connections by design starts routing internet traffic, some one else will come along with a better way to create buzz. It is after all ALL HYPE. CompuServe out hyped BBS systems. AOL outhyped CompuServe. The internet out hyped AOL.
There is a fundamental change here though. Because the basic framework is now more solidified, it is now even more just a matter of hype. FaceBook runs on top of the internet. The next system will as well.
Now for a guess - if governments make the internet a locked down system under their control, it will take the conservative reigns and will need to be replaced by a new "undernet." A global network that cannot be regulated - this will be the next great HYPE. All the old internet hardware is there and it could be built quickly with modest changes. The internet was created as a government tool. Perhaps it will end that way as well. Information will not be contained for long. Long live the "undernet!"
Like human beings, software products do pass through various stages of being born, growth, maturity, decline and death. A similar life-cycle will be seen on Facebook. In System Analysis, you should have covered this. Any technology product has to go through a life-cycle of being invented, developed, published, upgraded, revised, replaced or dies. Who knew Ms-DOS would be replaced? And already, chatting applications are replacing SMS technology. So, lets all think smart as left-brain thinkers, Facebook WILL die or get replaced. Same way as programming in QBASIC, newer generation will consider it a dinosaur soon.
Are you sure that the users of facebook, pretty much all ages and people from all walks of life, including some that do not otherwise use computers, especiallly with the smartphone explosion, need constant change and upgrading? These are not the cyber geeks of the social net sites of yesteryear, looking for the next cool thing. These are people that have taken this software and integrated it into the most important aspect of thier lives, how they communicate with family and friends. Facebook is an efficient, free, familiar tool for this, nothing like it has existed before and I think the death of this beast is a very long way off, if indeed it happens at all.
I think it is the modern day equivalent of the telephone directory.
I think it is the modern day equivalent of the telephone directory.
It's most defiantly the Modern Day Equivalent of the Telephone Directory or at least it will be when all of the Business int he World finally join and have their Face Book Pages.
Currently it's changing and all of the New members that I have been notified of are Business who are proudly pushing their FB Presence to sell FB Users all over the world their goods.
Just how many people will really want to be involved when this finishes happening?
Sure they will not close their FB Accounts and I doubt that anyone claims that they will though they should but when their In Boxes start getting filled with Adverts from their FB Friends with the Specials of the Week many will rapidly loose interest. Of course if they don't close their FB Accounts any new business who join will eventually gain access to the Inactive FB Users E Mail so that they can Help them spend their money.
Col
Currently it's changing and all of the New members that I have been notified of are Business who are proudly pushing their FB Presence to sell FB Users all over the world their goods.
Just how many people will really want to be involved when this finishes happening?
Sure they will not close their FB Accounts and I doubt that anyone claims that they will though they should but when their In Boxes start getting filled with Adverts from their FB Friends with the Specials of the Week many will rapidly loose interest. Of course if they don't close their FB Accounts any new business who join will eventually gain access to the Inactive FB Users E Mail so that they can Help them spend their money.
Col
I bet against google and aol. Rather I didn't invest in their stock. Still haven't seen a good fortune teller in the stock market.
Well I won't place any bets about facebook. Not going to buy stock in facebook either.
Well I won't place any bets about facebook. Not going to buy stock in facebook either.
The entire article is about the Facebook IPO. He's saying the initial stock price is overpriced.
And never WILL. I had it for a short time, only because my ex wife kidnapped my kids. And it was the only way I could stay in touch with them. (Although it didn't help for very long, SHE was far better at controlling the kids than I am at controlling the router)
Now, I have the kids for good, and the EX uses it to create havoc for me with the kids. I'm planning to block it from my router, a little here and there, making it seem as though it is NOT rock solid. Then, it will be blocked altogether. And then, I'll have some OTHER site or issue to contend with... Ahhh. Marriage, don't you just love it?
OK, A bit off topic, but really, I'm not so different than others who have used it. And my reasons are mostly the same as all those others using it. Contact. That was my point.
That's my personal reason, but, there's more. It's IM app is the PITS! Way worse than ANY I know of. Yahoo's chat, (or IM), function, works SO much better, why even bother with FB's? I admit, sharing photos was fairly painless. BUT, and this is THE killer for me other than what I mentioned above: All those lovely viruses and other malware! The games, in particular, are KNOWN to be THE single best way to get infected! Even my KIDS know enough to stay away from the games. (I am deliberately slow to 'fix' their computers if they get infected) Third party or not, FB is presenting them, and has some responsibility to hold it's 'third parties' accountable for damaging it's reputation: As THE place to go to get an infection on your computer. As for wasting time? U betcha! My kids can and DO waste almost all their homework time on it. I HAVE to allow them access to the internet for school. But they will sneak a second (and third, and fourth) tab under when they think I am looking elsewhere. (I ain't that stupid, I was a kid once, and if WE had had computers and the internet... My friends and I wouldn't have gotten ANY education!) What do they mainly use it for: CHAT! THE WORST app ON FB. And anyone who isn't on FB is living in the stone age, as far as they are concerned. They just create another account to avoid parents, Grandparents, teachers, and anyone else, (usually adults), that they wish to avoid... Which is most of the time. As far as the other sites, LinkedIn and such, I know they (my own kids) are already migrating over, little by little, still spending most of their time on FB, because, as was noted, everyone is on FB! It's like the lowest common denominator. The lowly FB for poor old Grandmas and others, who are incapable of even defragging a hard drive without a personal visit. (And Grandmaw, MY kid's only living one, is forced by location to still use dial-up, and even SHE can, and does, use FB) That's what FB is now, today. In a couple of years, I'm with Jason Hiner... (The author) I think it will become a has-been like AOL. Existing on the fringes, a backwater for the technically challenged. Like Grandmaw... Still stuck with her dial-up modem @ 36 Kb/s on a good day. The stone age!
Now, anyone have any NEWS?
Now, I have the kids for good, and the EX uses it to create havoc for me with the kids. I'm planning to block it from my router, a little here and there, making it seem as though it is NOT rock solid. Then, it will be blocked altogether. And then, I'll have some OTHER site or issue to contend with... Ahhh. Marriage, don't you just love it?
OK, A bit off topic, but really, I'm not so different than others who have used it. And my reasons are mostly the same as all those others using it. Contact. That was my point.
That's my personal reason, but, there's more. It's IM app is the PITS! Way worse than ANY I know of. Yahoo's chat, (or IM), function, works SO much better, why even bother with FB's? I admit, sharing photos was fairly painless. BUT, and this is THE killer for me other than what I mentioned above: All those lovely viruses and other malware! The games, in particular, are KNOWN to be THE single best way to get infected! Even my KIDS know enough to stay away from the games. (I am deliberately slow to 'fix' their computers if they get infected) Third party or not, FB is presenting them, and has some responsibility to hold it's 'third parties' accountable for damaging it's reputation: As THE place to go to get an infection on your computer. As for wasting time? U betcha! My kids can and DO waste almost all their homework time on it. I HAVE to allow them access to the internet for school. But they will sneak a second (and third, and fourth) tab under when they think I am looking elsewhere. (I ain't that stupid, I was a kid once, and if WE had had computers and the internet... My friends and I wouldn't have gotten ANY education!) What do they mainly use it for: CHAT! THE WORST app ON FB. And anyone who isn't on FB is living in the stone age, as far as they are concerned. They just create another account to avoid parents, Grandparents, teachers, and anyone else, (usually adults), that they wish to avoid... Which is most of the time. As far as the other sites, LinkedIn and such, I know they (my own kids) are already migrating over, little by little, still spending most of their time on FB, because, as was noted, everyone is on FB! It's like the lowest common denominator. The lowly FB for poor old Grandmas and others, who are incapable of even defragging a hard drive without a personal visit. (And Grandmaw, MY kid's only living one, is forced by location to still use dial-up, and even SHE can, and does, use FB) That's what FB is now, today. In a couple of years, I'm with Jason Hiner... (The author) I think it will become a has-been like AOL. Existing on the fringes, a backwater for the technically challenged. Like Grandmaw... Still stuck with her dial-up modem @ 36 Kb/s on a good day. The stone age!
Now, anyone have any NEWS?
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