KDE "is the last remaining Linux desktop that resembles that standard desktop metaphor."

You sure? I use Xubuntu and Lubuntu and like them partly because they keep the standard desktop metaphor. You sure you haven't slid into a "big names only" frame of mind, re. desktop environments?

"Kubuntu most likely will flounder and die."

Again, I don't see it. Seems pretty straightforward that Kubuntu will join Xubuntu and Lubuntu as one of the available derivatives that release regularly and are always available (but which surprisingly few people choose).