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For the majority of "ordinary" users (i.e. non-Geeks), a new interface is an incredible barrier to using a new OS/version. I have been making the transition from WinXP to Win7 for my work PC, and that relatively small barrier is a real hindrance to getting my work done. The same applies to my home PC choice, Linux. I have gotten comfortable with Gnome2 over the last few years, mostly on Mint9, and I can focus on the "fun stuff" of actually using the PC.

But, every few years, I realize the base platform is getting too old for the hardware (although I normally stay several generations behind on hardware to save money), and some newer software tools/features I develop a strong preference for along with the end of security updates (a big motivator!). I go through the pain of this migration with some reluctance since it takes up a lot of my time, but the inducement of LTS lets me hope it won't repeat too ofen. Also, being in IT over 35 years, I still enjoy the challenges after I get "into it", and start seeing some benefits.

Believe me that a lot of people are more like my wife, and will NOT be persuaded to go through such trauma if there is any possible way to avoid such change. They do not care how much more "efficient" it is claimed to be - it is NOT efficient for them to spend such an inordinate amount of time to unlearn the muscle memory of mouse clicks and key presses in certain locations and sequences for little noticeable gain (noticeable to non-geeks, to be clear). This is the kind of issue that will keep Linux from ever replacing Windows in any large way no matter how technically superior it might be - all the varieties and changes destroy any kind of uniformity and stability that most PC users need to feel comfortable and be productive.

Of course, Windows is hitting the same resistance itself going from XP to 7 (Vista being skipped by many if they had a choice, but more due to technical glitches), and now the rants on Windows fora about the horribleness of Windows 8's Metro interface show that the same motivations for resistance to change are OS-agnostic (lots of how-to's for getting to the "hidden" traditional-sort-of GUI seem to be quite popular). For many, if not most, PC users, UI change is a huge barrier to be avoided at almost any cost.

I admit though that smartphones and tablets seem to be avoiding this problem, but I think it is due in large part to their fundamentally different use mode primarily for consumption, more like a TV, and brief discrete tasks like making a phone call, or tapping a blobby button image for a web page or opening an email, than for extensive content creation. Their interfaces are fairly conducive to selecting and arranging, and not so much for extensive input that a keyboard works better for (which may be why there is a market for the folio cases with imbedded keyboards to bridge that gap a bit for the "edge case" users). People are not having to unlearn an interface when the whole device paradigm is new, and relatively easy to get at least basic proficiency in. Instead they learn from scratch when the payoff is big (which is why I think the rise of thumb keyboards about 10 years ago was a huge, and missed, opportunity to introduce users to the keying efficiencies of a Dvorak layout, which would have saved a lot of "extreme thumb antics" - oh well, Paradise Lost ...).

Indeed, many are switching to tablets as their primary computing device when they find it is "just enough" for their needs, and much more convenient to have to hand for those needs - PC's are just unwieldy overkill for these users, and strange new hybrids like Unity and Metro probably will not lure them back, and will turn off many of the remaining "traditional" users.

FWIW