Wrong, Right, Right
I think you are wrong to discount the ARM tablet. During the Windows Phone 8 summit they announced that there will be management tools for Windows Phone 8. I don't see any reason why these could not be extended to cover Windows RT.
While I don't see the Surface taking any measurable bit out of the iPad, I do see it as a serious competitor, and I think it will get many looks.
Now, you are absolutely right about the Surface Pro. This will be the answer to the dreams of many in IT, because they will finally be able to recommend a tablet. No compromises.
And, I agree that with the Surface Pro, or any Windows 8 Tablet, what I want is a dock where I can insert the tablet and then use a large monitor, possibly with the tablet screen as a second along with a keyboard and mouse. To me this would be the ultimate, and I still want the touchcover.
Desktop at my desk, Tablet on the go, and when I need it on the go, a keyboard that doesn't weight me down.
