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As a long-time Unix user, I always found the way Linux/FreeBSD distros are so easy to update, maintain, and search for software that actually runs perfectly well. This is probably thanks to Red Hat, which introduced at least for the masses! the idea of a centralised (or federated...) repository of software, from where one could download everything, and have a relative assurance that anyone contributing to that repository would have gone through guidelines of best practices to make sure it would work out fine. No more hunting down for that lost link which had the correct sequence of packages to install!

Apple and Microsoft, of course, have done the same for their own software. Nothing is easier to install and maintain than system software that auto-updates regularly. But I was always pissed off in the last decade that each different application vendor needed to have their "own" system. Why couldn't I get Photoshop upgraded from Microsoft Update? Why would I have to install Adobe's Java-based installer, running separately? HP, on my Mac, insists on adding a complex, outdated, prone-to-error "software maintenance" sub-system, which interferes with all the rest. Not to mention some brands of anti-virus software which "freeze" the whole machine while they search for the latest updates. And when installing one thing and another "maintenance" application suddenly decides it's time to upgrade at the same time havoc ensures.

Then the iPhone came out with the App Store. The functionality was ludicrously simple to understand and use: look for whatever application you wish on a single place. Apple validates what gets pushed into the App Store, so you can rest assured that it will eventually work with your iPhone/iPad. Vendors can have their own sites, of course, but they will redirect to the App Store. And, of course, every day I can check which software application needs to be upgraded no matter what vendor has written it, the update/upgrade comes from a single source, a single place, and uses a single mechanism. What Linux/FreeBSD had for years, iOS offered finally as a standard way to install/maintain applications on your mobile device.

Needless to say, Android went the same route well, not quite: Google Play competes with Amazon, and you can install software from other sources as well (not to mention your own smartphone supplier). When Apple introduced the App Store for Lion, it became clear that this would be the way to go on desktop/laptop computing as well. 25 billion downloads? I'm actually amazed, as 99% of the applications I've installed on my three Macs actually don't come from the App Store not yet. But eventually they will. In 2-3 years I'm sure that even the dreadful Adobe and HP "installers" will be gone forever.

Needless to say, I was fully expecting Microsoft to do exactly the same. They're not stupid. By providing an unified mechanism to search, download, maintain and upgrade applications, they can make sure that all applications running on Windows 8 are "legitimate". Over a few years, so-called "Microsoft-approved" applications will only be installable via the Windows Store and what that means is that if you wish to run a "safe" environment, be it at home or at the office, it means making sure that you only download "approved" applications from the Windows Store. In 5 years, it might even be impossible for Windows or Mac users to install anything on their desktop/laptop computers outside Windows Store/App Store unless, of course, you "jailbreak" your desktop/laptop. Which should be fine: people are allowed to live dangerously and assume full responsibility of breaking open their operating systems to trojans, virus, and damaged/incompatible software. But the lesson from the Linux/FreeBSD crowd should be clear: if their is a single "official" source for all your needs, you're basically insane (or have too much free time on your hands) if you wish to do everything on your own. You can certainly trash a wonderful Ubuntu installation by downloading an "unapproved" version of whatever software and compile it on your own it's part of the fun (if that's your idea of fun). But if you don't have time, patience, or a different sense of fun, you stick with the official repositories. Bringing that same concept to the masses of Windows and Mac users make all the sense.

A couple of weeks ago I was discussing with some people the merits of embedding huge applications inside a Web browser or installing it separately as a native, stand-alone application. A large crowd was all for Web-based applications, because they live inside a sandbox environment which, however, is easier to upgrade: many campuses and business networks prevent installation of native applications for security reasons, and Web-based computing is the way to go. I questioned this approach because there is always some extra overhead of running something inside a Web browser there will always be some limitations and shortcomings. Native applications have less overhead and can take advantage of certain hardware or operating system facilities unavailable on a "generic" browser-embedded application. Sure, the problem of being actually unable to install applications on high-security environments is an issue against native applications. But I predicted that this issue would soon be a thing of the past: as Apple moved to follow the Linux/FreeBSD crowd by providing a single point of "safely" installing applications using an uniform and universal mechanism, I predicted that Microsoft would jump into that model as well. It makes a lot of sense from their perspective. Apple, of course, is all about control; Microsoft less so, but I'm sure they don't discard the ability of enforce some more rules, if that means less people using a crippled Windows (due to conflicting software installed) and less customer support calls...

I, for one, am wholly for this approach. And I'm sure that a small fraction of highly technical-minded individuals will "jailbreak" their desktops and laptops of 2020 to be able to install whatever they wish. But 99.9% of all Mac/Linux/Windows users in 2020 will not care about that and prefer to have a single source for searching, installing and upgrading the applications on their platform, be it desktop-based or mobile.