Discussion on:

Mobile computing and the demise of the desktop

Give it maybe 15-20 years and tablets will have "replaced the desktop", in all businesses for all uses.

In 10 years desktops will be gone. Forever

over 65 words per minute, including proper formatting, there will always be a demand for desktops to do the heavy crunch work that is done every day in businesses and at home. Touch screen systems aren't that good for the preparation of most documents and many other business related tasks. Maybe a computer that interfaces direct with the mind will replace the desktop too.

Sure Apple are selling a lot of mobile devices, but they're still selling a lot of MacBooks and iMacs. Although the iMac has been seen as a niche player for many years, it's still going very strong.

As I see it, tablets can replace the desktop if a person uses the computer only for surfing the internet, doing e-mail and accessing social networks.
I have yet to see a tablet that will do Quicken, Photoshop, Turbotax, etc.

There is no doubt about the value and rise of mobile computing, but it comes with some serious drawbacks. Often the screen is too small and you are forever expanding and contracting the page. The memory is finite, and will never reach what a desktop can accommodate, especially with a couple of Terabyte drives or more. Battery life has not kept pace so your are still largely tied to an electric outlet, removing much of the utility. Finally, to compensate, there is the push for the cloud computing. You will have to go a long way to convince me that (a) the security of my data is as good as my desktop, and (b) that I will always be able to access it as readily as my desktop. Long and short of it, I believe both technologies will continue to co-exist, with the mobile being a fair crutch while your away from your desk.

Not every business user needs mobility. When you can buy a tablet complete with accompanying docking station, external monitor, mouse, and keyboard for less than a similarly configured desktop, then businesses will begin to replace desktops for their non-mobile users. Until then, even if the processing power is there, why spend more?

Desktops will continue to be less expensive for quite a while. They don't need wireless components, the processors don't have to be managed for power consumption or heat generation, and they're cheaper to repair or reconfigure.

As much as tablet proponents want to say that desktops are obsolete it is just not so. There are many applications in the business world that require large screen real estate and specialized equipment connected to the computer to perform the necessary functions. Tablets don't have the connectivity, or functionality necessary to handle these situations and most tablet manufacturers are not looking to change this in the near future and some don't see the need to ever address this.

For general use such as email, internet access and BASIC office applications, tablets can function quite well. So I can see the demise of a portion of the desktops that corporations currently use. Unfortunately for the foreseeable future tablets are just not productive enough to even consider using them instead of most current desktop deployments.

The tablet can take over from the desktop ( which these days is most likely a laptop that can be connect to monitor and keyboard) when it has all the apps that the desktop has but most importantly a keyboard. I have used on screen keyboards for a long time and they are fine for a quick response to email,etc but not writing a proposal or a design document. So when tablets have all the apps+monitor(tablet screens are ok)+keyboard the they can , oh but wait isn't that what a laptop is .

I feel like there was a bait and switch in this article. The headline implies the demise of the desktop, but then a few paragraphs in we discover that it is the desktop PC's role as "the center of our computing hub" that faces elimination.

This clarification I largely agree with. At work a tablet would be useless -- my dual 23" monitors are vital to my productivity -- but at home this change is already taking place. My desktop PC streams music and video to my Xbox, stores documents that I access and edit on my laptop, and personal email is read and responded to as it comes in on my Android phone. The only time I actually need to sit at my desk is when I do graphic design or video editing, which isn't all that often. I plan to purchase an Intel-based Surface tablet early next year which, if there is a decent docking station, will replace both my laptop and desktop PC. At that time the desktop will likely be converted into a file and print server.

Patrick Gray is delirious. The only reason I even use a laptop is to check a clients network to see if it is functioning correctly before I start to work on it. Big monitors, high performance, recliner chairs, mice and keyboards rule for almost anything you could want to do except airplane travel. They are easier to fix and have more parts available to work with. Most tablets and pads are delicate pieces of proprietary junk. And just wait till you get the tab for all those sorry apps you have to pay for. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

"And just wait till you get the tab for all those sorry apps you have to pay for. "

You have to pay for software for desktops and laptops too. Otherwise, you stuck your dismount.

There is Open Office available on the web for free. IE comes with the OS. That is all my wife needs. We have in addition Office 97 Pro in which still works just fine. Because of my job I have paid for SQL Server developer edition the cost of which is minimal, and I get free editions of Visual Studio. I pay a minmal price for DSL. So no I don't have to pay for software to do what I need to do on our laptops and desktops, and I don't have to pay wireless data connectivity which is never available.

There are no-cost equivalents for tablets too. Everything you list will run on the Windows 8 tablets when they're released.

Alienwilly made a point of the cost of apps for mobile devices. My point is that the cost of apps is just as much of a factor (or non-factor) for desktops and laptops as it is for mobile devices.

but not the Win 8 RT tablets.

We not likely to deploy an RT device where I work, so I've already mentally erased their existence. You're correct with your 'Pro' qualifier.

I have an iPad, but it has a long way to go before I'm going to ditch my 27" iMac. I need a big screen for many things. If anything, I'm looking forward to an iMac with a bigger screen, not reducing to a smaller one. Also, the mouse is critical to many of the apps I use. My partner is a designer and he had issues with Apple's Trackpad on his iMac using Adobe products - the mouse is here for a few years yet along with the desktop and keyboard in my opinion. At the end of the day, it depends on what the user needs to do.

IT is an amazing world. Did you know that every thing has it own standard specification and requires a specific standard a nd specification.

IT means Human eyes and Hands require a specific hardware in order to work on a specific software. for example, a very small keyboard and monitor will not allow you to function properly. Very small hardware is very easy to be stolen.

Mobile Technologies are good for emergency mobile responses.
They are also good for kids.

I have never had a tablet. As I understand it, to use a tablet you have to have a cell phone plan that includes data. And to make it worth while it would have to be unlimited data. Compared to the total I currently pay for cell phone and DSL there is no way I would be willing to spend all the extra money needed to enable a tablet particularly not in this economy with a mortgage and retirement staring me in the face.

And if my cell phone connectivity is any indication of the connectivity I would have with a tablet, then there is no point in having a machine which is unable to connect to its data 90% of the time.

Most (all?) models are equipped with WiFi radios. Of course, this limits your connectivity to your home WiFi (if you have one) and public WiFi networks (questionable security, limited bandwidth, and sometimes have a service charge).

for ATT home DSL customers. Even when other customers have to pay for the connections. Sign on with the primary user account & password.

Starbucks hates me!

nt

Patrick, I simply don't understand why you guys and your editors have to spin your articles simply to drive the level of drama up!!! Knock off the overstated speculation about the demise of a whole side of computing.

The tablet is definitely here to stay. Has it found it's niche yet? I don't personally think so. What's wrong with it on the whole. You still need to prop it up and use an external keyboard to make it efficient for most applications. Sure you can "view" things, and you can create an email using the onscreen touch keyboard, but is it efficient... hardly!

So what does a tablet with a stand to prop it up and a keyboard to use for inputs equal? Simple it's a laptop! Right now the next best thing to the tablet for portability is the netbook type computer and they're not my fav either.

So is there going to be a "demise of the desktop", not hardly. Right now we have 4 categories of mobile computing. The cell phone, tablets, laptops (netbook/notebook) computers, and the time proven desktop.

Each of those type of "computers" will settle deeper into their own niche of usage and sales potential. That is a given. Will the desktop experience a "demise"? I don't see that happening unless the technology changes drastically with something new that would make tablets, laptops, and desktops obsolete all at the same time.

So please quit with the "drama" headlines posing a situation that you know isn't gonna happen anytime soon, just for the sake of misleading readers to what you've written.

Tech Republic used to be a great site to come to for the purpose of reading what's going on in technology. In the last couple of years the headlines and articles themselves are more like what I'd expect to find in the Star "magazine" found on store checkout counters with all the drama you and your editors are implementing. From a member and readers perspective, please cease and desist.

Nuff said... those are my thoughts on your article!

To focus on home use for a minute, where tablets have a good use for consuming content, I still love having a traditional desktop as the center of my computing experience.
I love having a dedicated space with a desk and my large monitor. I have some nice small speakers with a t-amp and an old but excellent 12 inch Sony subwoofer for a great sounding 2.1 sound setup. It's just great to grab some coffee, fire up some background music and read through some newsletters, blogs, or something. I certainly hope future tablets can attach to some sort of dock that can give that same experience.
I'm still weighing whether a tablet fits my needs, but with my smartphone and a desktop, I really enjoy the experience I currently get.

Also, as others have pointed out, laptops are truly great for giving one portability and horsepower. Open the lid and you've got everything you need in a small efficient package. And you don't need to keep holding the thing

A tablet simply lacks the muscle that a high-end desktop provides, though I often wish a high-end desktop didn't eat so much power. Running a high performance desktop all day that sports a 750-watt power supply is not my idea of a green solution, and my electric bills prove it.

Desktops are also the only place to keep truly private data. The cloud is nonsense. There is simply certain data that should NEVER be in the cloud under any circumstances. Cloud-mania is only Big Brother pushing himself on us on the one hand, and concerted efforts to get private data easily retrieved on the other. Just because we can do something doesn't mean we should. That is the nature of wisdom. And clearly, too many specimens of the so-called "wise man" lack it.

Literally. Those 5" and 7" screens are simply too small to see anything useful, even with my cheaters.

I find myself shaking my head at the push to cram more and more into smaller and smaller screens.

No. They're complementary. Same for portable computing and fixed.

OTOH, if you were to ask if the existence of tablets will change the way personal computers are deployed, ... Different answer.

I believe that the (local) network IS the computer. Access from a desktop / laptop / fridge-located / phone / is a matter of physical convenience for a given app at a given time. Sure, it doesn't fit in the monolithic WinApple approach. Time to break that mold.

The other day, I was watching a documentary about the Mexican drug cartels and all the dope that gets smuggled into the USA. I was wondering, where do most of the drugs go? But after reading the headline of this article on TR today, I think I have the answer to that question.

I find it almost embarrassing to see that a well respected tech site like TR constantly spewing this ridiculous sort of inane babble about the "demise of the desktop" at the hands of mobile devices. If I didn't know any better, I'd say that nobody at TR owns a desktop computer, or has even used one in the last 10 years. Seriously.

You know those people out there... they're regular family folks, moms and dads, grandparents... at some point, they bought a desktop computer, maybe even spent a lot of money on it, but they've never been really "into" the computer. They played some cheesy games on it for a laugh, maybe used it to balance the checkbook with some home finance software... perhaps they even kept some basic household records or did thier taxes with it. But generally, it ended up sitting in a corner somewhere and now only gets used for Facebook, Twitter, and checking email.

THOSE are the people who are the ideal target for mobile devices. The desktop computer turned out to be just a little more than they really need, and a large screen and giant hard drive are not being utilized. The tablet would work well for them because it's relatively low maintenance and lets them do all that mindless social networking crap and play some more cheesy and simple games... at the dinner table, on the sofa, or in the car. Hey, I suppose in some places that would be considered "progress".

For anyone else who doesn't fall squarely in that niche of people, the tablet will be, at most, a supplement to thier desktop, but it's unlikely that it will EVER be a replacement. And I'm still referring to a large number of home users. Try telling office workers, graphic designers, film/newswspaper/magazine editors, lawyers, game designers, network administrators, web designers, government workers, military personnel, 3D artists, PC gamers,... and a slew of others I shouldn't have to mention, that they are going to give up thier desktops for a 7~10 inch lackluster screen, a cumbersome and clumsy OS (regardless of brand) and no keyboard or mouse, with which to do all thier computing on.

Oh yeah, THAT should go over well... *facepalm*

As for me, you can have my full-sized tower, SLI'd GeForce GTX 470s, dual Dell UltraSharp IPS 24" monitors, 6TB of hard drive space, 16 USB ports, Blu-ray burner, G510 keyboard, and MX1000 wireless mouse when you pry them from my extremely cold, dead fingers.

I even work in IT... and I STILL don't have a use for a tablet or other mobile device! (No, I don't use my smartphone for IT related apps.)

Demise of the desktop?. Given the current state of the world, we're more likely to witness the second coming of Christ before mobile devices take over.

When laptops became more powerful and affordable, the question was "will laptops replace desktops?" If mobility was a major requirement, the answer was yes, but if you were going to sit in a comfortable chair, and type for several hours, the answer was NO. Laptops replaced desktops for people whose computer needs would best be met by a small, mobile device that did not require a dedicated office and desk area. Many laptop owners also had a dedicated office computer at a desk as well, which they used when long, comfortable session were required. I think laptops and netbooks will be replaced by tablets. There will always be a percentage of people who will choose a desktop for some or all of their computer needs.

To totally defeat the PC (desktop) you also have to totally defeat that philosophy.

On the one hand, PCs give office workers more flexibility and independence by being able to run programs locally as well as communicating with the mainframe.

And on the other hand, PCs bring the computing power of the office into the home, enabling a whole new wave of "freelancers" and giving the individual a data store and computing functionality that is personalized, and as secure (or private) as the home environment can be made to be.

Politically, this tended to enable and "free" individuals.

There is a competing social-economic-political philosophy. In this vision of the future, security from some vague external threat ranks above all else in importance. So the group is reigned in and put under much tighter control. Any stepping out of line can cost you big; the survival of the whole group depends on each member staying in line.

I can see how this would be the preferred approach in certain settings. But for all of humanity? I am seriously unconvinced. And so were the inventors of the PC.

Will the PC "become less popular" or will it be FORCED out of existence? This will indicate to me the direction society is taking.

I've bought 2 laptops in 15 years - for particular purposes.Once used they were shelved as they could not compete with the desktops - and they could not be upgraded (like a desktop).Portable products cannot compete with my old 386 so why are they being "pushed" by manufacturers.Because they want to "consumerise" their products to create turnover and therefore profit..I accept there is a market for consumers who have low end uses for their machines and thats fine.I cannot see me ever buying or using a tablet.PS I'm looking for a "dumb" phone - I believe this would greatly assist my productivity.

nt

I have a dumb phone- all it does is send and receive telephone calls (it may have some built-in games, but no camera, no data service, no music player, but a couple of optional ring tones and a vibration mode I find quite useful). Not only that, I do not pay for a monthly plan- I run down to the corner and pay cash when I run out of minutes...
On top of all that, I get a kick out of my associates with their smart phones who are always asking to borrow my phone because I have better and more consistent coverage than they do...
Of course, I ove in a "3rd World" country, so our technology may differ somewhat from what is available to you...

Just as the automobile never replaced the freight train, tablets and "smart" 'phones won't replace the fully-functional computer. They're nice little adjuncts, but, when there's real work to be done, a real workhorse (or workstation, if you will) is needed. I notice that comments before mine all said the same thing, but I wished to enter more than a mere "I concur."

People I can't see working on a tablet unless it's a big one on a stand on a desk. Oh wait, that's a desktop.

Architects using CAD programs, photo-realistic rendering, lighting design and simulation,...

Musicians recording, mixing, processing, ....

Artists using digital tools like Painter

Process Controllers who monitor automated equipment. Think power-stations, processing lines, sewerage plants,...

Engineers designing pretty much anything and using CAD/CAM, simulation and CFD, circuit emulation and PCB layout,...

Programmers using IDEs, emulators and other tools.

Seems to add up to a lot of people, the world is not white-collared. The "enterprise", whatever that is, isn't more important the the SMBs out there. SMBs apparently employ more people that "enterprises".

nt

I suspect most of these have embedded processors, not external desktop CPUs, although operators probably remote into them.

It's probably already been said, but I'm not reading through 50+ comments :P I have no clue why people keep talking about screen size... you can always use an external display and bluetooth keyboard/mouse... let's get real here, I wanted to make an arguement about how I wanted to see a tablet run Autodesk 3ds, but seriously, it doesn't have to. With cloud computing using clusters of servers to do things faster than any ONE desktop could, I could see tablets, more or less, becoming portals to online computing. Don't get me wrong, I love my desktop, and will be building a new powerhouse soon, and will continue to do so (likely) for years to come... as it's already been stated multiple times, 10 years is a LONG time, I'd venture to guess that tablets will go obselete for something better within the next 10 years, seriously... and if anything, HUD computing / "Augmented Reality" will take over... my 2c, take it or leave it...

I don't think the desktop/personal computer experience will ever die. I think the only change will be the device that your mouse, keyboard, and monitor connect to. Instead of having a huge piece of furniture you'll have something maybe the size of a cigarette pack or something. Instead of the desktop PC being a piece of living room furniture or office furniture it will be smaller, thinner, and maybe just connect to your monitor. Also, it may be that it's even powered by a server several hundred miles away.