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Jack, you missed at least one option
Based on the longevity of XP systems, it's likely Windows 7 systems will still be running when Window 9 is released. Just as companies running XP sat out Vista and leapfrogged to W7, they may skip W8 in the hope that W9 will be 'better' (as defined by the user, not MS).

I hope Dell and the other OEMs are able to successfully market systems with Penguins pre-installed this time around. Unless they can, I see consumers tolerating W8 instead of taking the scary step (to them) of replacing the OS from scratch. I see them more likely to switch to Apple instead, again simply because the OS is already in place.
Updated - 13th Aug