Whether what you have is called a "PC" is pretty irrelevant... You'll have a monitor, a keyboard and a mouse that go somewhere. For the end user the difference is negligible. As for the desktop phone? That could happen, but it seems less likely in a "no PCs but virtual workstations" scenario because of the way that voice traffic works... If the phone is disappearing because "they'll all use mobile phones" then I'll just laugh derisively: Mobile technology isn't there to provide the same level of reliability that landlines do, and businesses crave reliable communication. Then there's also the albatross of billing and privacy on mobile platforms...
I have a hard time seeing how your desk phone could "go away" anytime soon until a large number of non-trivial issues get solved.
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I can't remember the last time I had a desk phone. Between VoIP, cellular and PBXs that will route calls from my "desk" phone (there's a rumor I actually have one, but I've never seen it) to any number I choose; I really don't see the need.
Many companies where I consult have adopted Lync for IM and VoIP... quickly making their desk phones redundant. They have access to speed dial, call logs, voicemail, corporate and personal phone directories, directly integrated with Exchange and Outlook... no more keeping multiple phone directories.
Lync and other VoIP solutions have a huge added benefit over fixed desk phones: they work with my BlueTooth headset that I already use with my cell phone. Much more comfortable than the neck-cramp inducing handset or if-I-turn-around-one-more-time-I'll-hang-myself Plantronics over-the-head headset.
Many companies where I consult have adopted Lync for IM and VoIP... quickly making their desk phones redundant. They have access to speed dial, call logs, voicemail, corporate and personal phone directories, directly integrated with Exchange and Outlook... no more keeping multiple phone directories.
Lync and other VoIP solutions have a huge added benefit over fixed desk phones: they work with my BlueTooth headset that I already use with my cell phone. Much more comfortable than the neck-cramp inducing handset or if-I-turn-around-one-more-time-I'll-hang-myself Plantronics over-the-head headset.
You can absolutely live without a desktop phone... But you need a desktop PC to make it reliable. You simply cannot do VoIP calling from a "virtual workstation" scenario (unless you over-engineer that virtual workstation solution, which likely exceeds by an order of magnitude the money saved by "not having desk phones,") per the best practices of most vendors offering the solution. It doesn't matter if you have Lync or Cisco Unity, VoIP traffic is very time sensitive and the virtual workstations with application-based VoIP calling simply don't scale. You can carry off doing it with a couple instances, but scaling it requires significantly more network resources and engineering than you would have spent buying phones.
You can have a "virtual workstation" with a desk phone, or you can have a PC and "no-phone" but the technology does not work yet to have BOTH a virtual workstation AND not have a phone.... Which is what the article is talking about: A "no phone/no PC" world. There are still some tweaks and advances that need to happen before that becomes a scalable solution.
You can have a "virtual workstation" with a desk phone, or you can have a PC and "no-phone" but the technology does not work yet to have BOTH a virtual workstation AND not have a phone.... Which is what the article is talking about: A "no phone/no PC" world. There are still some tweaks and advances that need to happen before that becomes a scalable solution.
Will a big box CPU be sitting on most desks? Probably not. Will millions of people be using full sized keyboards, separate mice and big (probably very big or multiple) screens, yes. When it gets down to content creation per dollar spent on IT, I see some workers needing hard drives, memory and cpus at their fingertips.
As to the phone, you were kidding, right? How long does your battery last? Is that longer or shorter than your last phone? Do you think you next phone or the one after that is going to have the ten hour talk time an office phone does? I know a lot of people who "work from their cell phone" now. I can't see a non road warrior working from an ear piece 8 hours a day.
As to the phone, you were kidding, right? How long does your battery last? Is that longer or shorter than your last phone? Do you think you next phone or the one after that is going to have the ten hour talk time an office phone does? I know a lot of people who "work from their cell phone" now. I can't see a non road warrior working from an ear piece 8 hours a day.
I'm perfectly happy working with a laptop in a docking station. I get local storage, reasonably fast CPUs, reasonably configured RAM and a docking station where I can plug in my full-sized keyboard, mouse and a couple of monitors.
Then when it's time to travel or go to a conference room, I just grab the laptop.
Then when it's time to travel or go to a conference room, I just grab the laptop.
The offices in the world that can afford to go completely without desktop computers and/or phones are probably not doing the kind of work that really required a desktop computer to begin with. I can tell you that the company that I work for, with the order entry system we utilize, our photography and graphics department, shipping department, product manual writing, plus half a dozen others that only scratch the surface of the THOUSANDS of jobs around the world that WILL NEVER WORK WITHOUT A DESKTOP COMPUTER... this crackpipe dream of a "mobile" world is just about the most delusional thinking plaguing the tech world today. Apparently, being in charge and overpaid doesn't mean you aren't a colossal f**king moron.
I have a quad-core 17-inch laptop at home, a six-core screamer at work, and a tablet that I tool around with. I write for a living, have massive amounts of data, and need decent performance and mobile devices are not now and are unlikely to be (in my opinion) suitable for my type of work any time soon.
As a writer I can understand your need for research but the speed to access that data is restricted by the speed of the internet.
It is like owning a Ferrari or Lotus and having to stay within the allowable speed limit.
It is like owning a Ferrari or Lotus and having to stay within the allowable speed limit.
as I can have multiple web pages open at the same time as the story I'm working on and can easily switch between them by looking at different spots on the screen by shifting my eyes, something I can't do on any mobile device I can afford since none within my price range have a 24 inch screen.
but the speed to access that data is restricted by the speed of the internet.
True but most forget the basic 101, the speed of the brain is the driver, not the net
True but most forget the basic 101, the speed of the brain is the driver, not the net
I wish I could give this one, 1000 thumbs up. In fact, wasn't it these same CIOs that were the LAST to bring in the smart phones saying they weren't suited? While we technological folks were doing it already and having a damn productive time in the process. The reason being shifting the communications in email off to our small devices , (the worthless part of our jobs , BUT are actually the most important for the CIO). In fact, probably by email that built up from the CIOs themselves.
Absolutely right - those CIOs they surveyed are pointy-haired bosses. It's not the first time a TR survey has come up with wildly improbably predictions from these clowns - I maintain they are just like the Gartners and all those other "research" companies that have to justify their own existence by making what appear to be "deep thinking" pronouncements but are in fact colossally *shallow*, based on incomplete data.
You nailed it Darren. Aren't these the same folks that complain about not being accepted as "real" members of the corporate board? It's no wonder with cockamamie predictions like this. I can see the possibility of phones going away, but not anytime soon...say in 20 years or so. (Hopefully this isn't another evil BYOD plot to trick employees to bearing another cost burden. The company ditches desk phones and employees *cough* have the privilege *cough* using their own cell phone.)
The ability to perform *real* work on mobile devices is always going to be limited unless some totally new way of interfacing with them is developed. Even in Star Trek Kirk just did simple things like signing reports and duty rosters on mobile devices. When serious work had to be done they moved to a console. Duh.
The ability to perform *real* work on mobile devices is always going to be limited unless some totally new way of interfacing with them is developed. Even in Star Trek Kirk just did simple things like signing reports and duty rosters on mobile devices. When serious work had to be done they moved to a console. Duh.
We have approximately 50 employees at my company and by the end of this year all of them will have docking stations and laptops with 24" dual monitor setups. Currently all but 4 or 5 are already set up this way. Approximately 1/3 of those employees are engineers with AutoCad installed on their laptop and have no problem running it. We have desk phones but are using a VOIP solution that allows re-routing to a cell phone. Our sales and support staff spend majority of their time working from home or on the road. The company makes and installs automated conveyor / picking / palletizing solutions in the beverage industry and all our installations have 15-30 cameras with HD resolution to monitor critical areas which the support staff can remotely access to aid in solving problems as well as remotely access the servers at the various installations. So I wouldn't call this a crack pipe dream. This is a medium size manufacturing company which recognizes the need to be mobile. The prior company I worked for as a consultant was the Corporate Data Center for Time Warner Cable with over 400 programmers, analysts and managers on laptops.
does this also apply to your accounting an personnel staff? How do the costs compare to standards desktops and phones? I know here in Australia such a set up would be much more expensive to set up and use, especially everyone having a cell phone when their duties don't require mobility - is accounts and HR again.
A full sized keyboard, real mouse and dual 24" monitors is close enough to a desktop PC for me. That the CPU and hard drive can go home at night is pretty minor. For that matter, a laptop that sits on the same desk each day is a desktop PC in my eyes. That big beige boxes will go away in favor of folding little boxes is not a change.
as a space saving desktop than a laptop in a docking station, and be a lot cheaper.
Our company looked into going to thin client computers, but they were all far more expensive than PCs. Most people in a company aren't traveling around everywhere. They must have surveyed sales companies or something. In manufacturing or most corporate offices, you can forget about replacing the PC anytime soon. They are just too cost-effective compared to other devices, and that's what the bottom line is all about. Plus, it's not like PC makers decided not to improve PCs a few years ago and retired. PCs keep improving, almost to the point now where they are over-powered and the software needs to catch up. Same reasoning with desktop phones. A majority of large companies may replace them, but most smaller companies are not going to bother with the switching over to VOIP or mobile. The cost is still too high.
Most of them are eyeing Surface tablets as the spur they need to get rid of laptops, but you have to keep in mind that most CIOs are thinking beyond hardware.
When you use VDI, your hardware doesn't really matter, except your graphics card and network connection. You can set up a full-on VDI workstation with minimal specs and have it perform at the capabilities of a monster machine.
Users who are monitoring alerts and sending feedback just need email. They can use their own devices for that.
Users who admin servers just need to be able to remote to them. Again, own device.
Users who serve customers just need an interface to the application and their email. Tablet with a dock can accomplish that.
The key is to get hardware that supports what the user really needs to be able to do to be effective at their job, rather than getting boilerplate hardware configurations where it's too much for some users and not enough for others.
When you use VDI, your hardware doesn't really matter, except your graphics card and network connection. You can set up a full-on VDI workstation with minimal specs and have it perform at the capabilities of a monster machine.
Users who are monitoring alerts and sending feedback just need email. They can use their own devices for that.
Users who admin servers just need to be able to remote to them. Again, own device.
Users who serve customers just need an interface to the application and their email. Tablet with a dock can accomplish that.
The key is to get hardware that supports what the user really needs to be able to do to be effective at their job, rather than getting boilerplate hardware configurations where it's too much for some users and not enough for others.
"You can set up a full-on VDI workstation with minimal specs and have it perform at the capabilities of a monster machine".
Yes, if you are the only one using the VDI host. Since that model destroys VDI's cost justification, it just doesn't stand up.
Create a VDI in something other than an elementary school classroom. Have people do work on it: Using Microsoft Office, surfing the web, leveraging development tools, using Line of Business applications. Invest in those monster servers and storage that are required. Then buy two for redundancy. Then you'll discover how your cost-benefit is heavy on the costs and short on the benefit... you'd just spent $4x to get .5 performance.
Yes, if you are the only one using the VDI host. Since that model destroys VDI's cost justification, it just doesn't stand up.
Create a VDI in something other than an elementary school classroom. Have people do work on it: Using Microsoft Office, surfing the web, leveraging development tools, using Line of Business applications. Invest in those monster servers and storage that are required. Then buy two for redundancy. Then you'll discover how your cost-benefit is heavy on the costs and short on the benefit... you'd just spent $4x to get .5 performance.
I'm referring to the accessing client, not the server. The accessing client does not need to be a super powered machine.
Performance on the backend - a server strong enough for vSphere can easily handle View clients. Lots of them. The only bottleneck is the company internet and the user's internet access. LAN bypass mitigates half of that when they're in the office if you have a separate external AP.
Does it cost? Of course. But so what? Why would you spend $2000 a machine x 1,000 machines = $2,000,000 when you could spend $300 x 1,000 machines = $300,000 and use the 1.7 million to build up the VDI stack? Your robustness skyrockets when you learn how to shift dollars away from pointless purchases. But a lot of IT don't think long term. They keep thinking they need to buy stronger and stronger Core-based machines, more and more RAM, etc. instead of really thinking about what they need going forward.
Performance on the backend - a server strong enough for vSphere can easily handle View clients. Lots of them. The only bottleneck is the company internet and the user's internet access. LAN bypass mitigates half of that when they're in the office if you have a separate external AP.
Does it cost? Of course. But so what? Why would you spend $2000 a machine x 1,000 machines = $2,000,000 when you could spend $300 x 1,000 machines = $300,000 and use the 1.7 million to build up the VDI stack? Your robustness skyrockets when you learn how to shift dollars away from pointless purchases. But a lot of IT don't think long term. They keep thinking they need to buy stronger and stronger Core-based machines, more and more RAM, etc. instead of really thinking about what they need going forward.
the bulk of offices is if the company spends a fortune to upgrade their Internet access and supplies everyone with two monitors and a decent VOIP headset to use, as well as installing a method to connect the VOIP system to the phone network for dealing with people who don't use VOIP phones.
As for the PC, how do they expect individuals to create and work with all the documentation and work related data files they use at the moment if they don't have a PC or something just as powerful?
Oh, I just worked it out, they only interviewed the CIOs of marketing companies who only have outside agents spreading the BS around.
As for the PC, how do they expect individuals to create and work with all the documentation and work related data files they use at the moment if they don't have a PC or something just as powerful?
Oh, I just worked it out, they only interviewed the CIOs of marketing companies who only have outside agents spreading the BS around.
"Oh, I just worked it out, they only interviewed the CIOs of marketing companies who only have outside agents spreading the BS around."
Vested interests (i.e. "iDevice" and other gadget makers).
Vested interests (i.e. "iDevice" and other gadget makers).
device - - the iCrapper
I don't see small-screened mobile devices or 'BYOD' smart phones picking up the slack on the factory floor. Neither of these categories is of much value to cube dwellers either. Apparently none of those CIOs work in environments where mobility isn't an factor.
and not the rest of the employees!! So in that sense, yep, they don't need
a desktop PC or phone, neither do their contemporaries such as CEO, CFO,
regional VPs, etc.! However, for the rest of the working minions, it will be
quite some time before this prediction comes to fruition.
a desktop PC or phone, neither do their contemporaries such as CEO, CFO,
regional VPs, etc.! However, for the rest of the working minions, it will be
quite some time before this prediction comes to fruition.
I suppose that as smartphones and tablets get more powerfull CPUs, they can replace the bulcky desktop PCs.
There are already quad core smartphones using android when mobile, and Ubuntu linux when docked to a small docking station to which you can connect a mouse and a keyboard.
I suppose in an enterprise environments they could run via Citrix like apps for the office work, and out of the office, they behave like a normal smartphone.
So no need for a separate PC anymore.
When I first saw this http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android
I had a kind of wow feeling, it can easily replace the traditional PC and deskphone
Ubuntu now seems to be pioneering with this, I suppose once the idea catches on,
Microsoft and apple will quickly jump on it also
There are already quad core smartphones using android when mobile, and Ubuntu linux when docked to a small docking station to which you can connect a mouse and a keyboard.
I suppose in an enterprise environments they could run via Citrix like apps for the office work, and out of the office, they behave like a normal smartphone.
So no need for a separate PC anymore.
When I first saw this http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android
I had a kind of wow feeling, it can easily replace the traditional PC and deskphone
Ubuntu now seems to be pioneering with this, I suppose once the idea catches on,
Microsoft and apple will quickly jump on it also
Looks like I'm not the only one who thinks this paticular topic takes stupid to whole new level.
Oh I mean, Man I'm sure gald I hung on to that 13" monitor so I can get the jump on this action.
Oh I mean, Man I'm sure gald I hung on to that 13" monitor so I can get the jump on this action.
Had the phone/docking station thing nailed over a year ago. It went nowhere. More expensive than a laptop (phone plus docking station), less performant, less capable.
Maybe, when mobile devices sport large displays, powerful hardware, and fully emulate the "archaic" devices they are supposed to replace. I'm not holding my breath.
No, I like the local storage, big screen, full keyboard.
What will go away first is what is inconvenient or uncomfortable to use or wear.
What will go away first is what is inconvenient or uncomfortable to use or wear.
Sadly, corporates the world over seem hell-bent on appointing idiots into management positions. Beats me that some companies ever even stay afloat, let alone make a profit - but come to think of it, it's just another one of those self-supporting cycles, they make money off other companies with morons for managers.
And so it goes.
And so it goes.
Have you seen some of the shoes the fashion designers are putting out? And people are actually buying them.
I would need 11 iPADs duct taped together to get the same realestate that I have on my desk. Not to mention that each of those 11 would have to be running more than application. You do the math. Not happening!!!!
I'm retired, so I'm strictly a home user; but there is no way I will abandon my computers until mobile devices (with docks) can match the power, expandability and upgradeability I enjoy now. I'm using a notebook -- with a mouse -- right now, and later I'll do a few things on my more powerful and better-equipped tower desktop machine. At bedtime I'll switch to my Kindle Fire for a little reading before I go to sleep.
For me, today, a cellphone (just a featurephone, btw) is all I need. For anything more than a one-person business though, I'd still want both corded and cordless landline phones -- muliti-line, with all the traditional office phone features -- along with cellphones for employees who work "on the floor" or outside the office environment.
For me, today, a cellphone (just a featurephone, btw) is all I need. For anything more than a one-person business though, I'd still want both corded and cordless landline phones -- muliti-line, with all the traditional office phone features -- along with cellphones for employees who work "on the floor" or outside the office environment.
That phone has a very low cost, where as a smart phone has a seriously high cost.
And personally if they did that to me, the phone would be turned on at 8:30 and turned off at 5:00. Can't reach me after that.
As for desktops disappearing, Funny, I just upgraded my desktop to a new I7 with 3 monitors cause VS2010 is pretty demanding and I like to keep the panels on the second monitor, and my reference material on the third (and code on the first, obviously).
And personally if they did that to me, the phone would be turned on at 8:30 and turned off at 5:00. Can't reach me after that.
As for desktops disappearing, Funny, I just upgraded my desktop to a new I7 with 3 monitors cause VS2010 is pretty demanding and I like to keep the panels on the second monitor, and my reference material on the third (and code on the first, obviously).
3 x 23'' monitors plus a 37'' TV. Amazing how productive I can be writing code on one monitor, UI on the other, database on the third with specifications/documentation on the TV.
Another one of those silly surveys, shoving opinion of few CIOs down the throat of rest of the world. It reminds of the the cloud computing surveys and how they say (those who offer cloud computing services) lets replace your existing IT with "our" cloud so your IT folks can focus on more "strategic" things like... like WHAT are those strategic things?
As far as death of PC is concerned, it might happen in organizations where there is unlimited IT budgets, everyone is flying on cloud 9 and for the rest of the 97% of the businesses, it maybe a couple of decades before desktop goes away.
As far as death of PC is concerned, it might happen in organizations where there is unlimited IT budgets, everyone is flying on cloud 9 and for the rest of the 97% of the businesses, it maybe a couple of decades before desktop goes away.
3
Votes
said then following things until the results were shoved down their throats the hard way:
1. Ford's production line would never work,
2. Frederick Winslow Taylor's concepts of efficiency were rubbish,
3. William Edwards Deming's ideas of constant improvement and team work were total rubbish.
It was also the CIOs, CEOs, and CFOs that made all those interesting investments and economic changes that lead to the Wall Street crash back in the early part of the 20th Century. Hmm, it does make you wonder how smart they are as a collective group.
edit to add CEOs
1. Ford's production line would never work,
2. Frederick Winslow Taylor's concepts of efficiency were rubbish,
3. William Edwards Deming's ideas of constant improvement and team work were total rubbish.
It was also the CIOs, CEOs, and CFOs that made all those interesting investments and economic changes that lead to the Wall Street crash back in the early part of the 20th Century. Hmm, it does make you wonder how smart they are as a collective group.
edit to add CEOs
many modern CIOs are really CEOs in waiting.
Thanks, will also edit my earlier post too.
Thanks, will also edit my earlier post too.
I don't know about you but the thing I love about my desktop is the size of the keyboard (I can type faster), the ergonomics of my mouse (it's too large to travel with) and my dual screen setup that allows me to have a PDF open on one screen and a Word doc on the other. I also enjoy the fully functioning apps that I can enjoy on my large screen and while multitasking within a single program (ie Quickbooks reports, invoicing, etc). Sure you can dock a laptop and get the same effect, but desktops are a lot better value for the power and quality. Currently a fully functional Quickbooks does not exist on any Android or Apple tablet or mobile device. Last time I tried to change my Google password on an iPad it was a pain in the rear. Windows 8 bridges the gap between mobile devices and laptops / desktops, but it is not apparent at this time if Windows 8 will be successful. Lastly, I'm sure many of us travel for our jobs but many of us don't. Even if we work from home, we don't necessarily need a mobile device to get work done. Right now, you can't beat the value, the speed, and the productivity that a desktop provides. Personally I'm sick of these articles that keep predicting the death of the desktop.
On a 20" or 22" screen, you usually have enough real estate to view 2 or more apps side by side. But I wouldn't want to try it on a screen 11" or less.
We're looking at a processor upgrade for our PABX. One of the "features" is to be able to give an extension number to a cell phone (yeah I know, speed dials do the same thing) which kind of negates the need for a desk phone for some personnel but I don't think it could be of value to all. My desk phone will never go flat and on a day where there are many crisis, my "smart phone" quickly runs out of juice where the calls are frequent and/or lengthy. I don't see desk phones becoming obsolete. As for PC's I agree with the comment that some CIO's and the counterparts migh not require a PC as other technologies evolve but I don't think that is the case for other personnel in an organisation.
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