The epistemological issues of predicting social-technological development is taken up in this recent publication:
Wicked Problems Social Messes: Decision support Modelling with Morphological Analysis. Springer, 2011.
You can see a description at:
http://www.springer.com/business+%26+management/technology+management/book/978-3-642-19652-2Regards,
Tom Ritchey
SweMorph