You may be right about that and you are proven to be right in the past 5 years. But even Apple has to innovate it's Windows 95 interface. The competition now has either more intuitive (Windows Phone 8) or more interactive (Android) interfaces. This will get noticed. The coming half year and this Christmas will show wether we are at a tipping point.

What will be decisive to move away from iOS? I do not know, maybe youth will look at the iPhone and think its meant for granddaddies or the underwhelming impression the 4S and 5 made compared to the competition like Nokia and Samsung, the upcoming ecosystem with excellent gaming of Windows 8 + XBOX, Apple's mistake with their Maps app?

What is certain, is that Apple needs to start innovating. Something they haven't done for quite a while now. So we can only hope the company can make the switch again or they will soon find themselves in the footsteps of Nokia. Nokia shows it is possible to come back, but it comes at a heafty price.