No...
The Vista effect was that it had some significant problems to start out with, it gained terrible negative press, they eventually fixed most of the problems, but by that time the name itself was so poorly perceived and the negative press so consistent that they released a fairly minor modification of Vista as Windows 7... and suddenly everybody loved it.
But there is already a LOT of positive press about Windows 8 among consumer channel reviewers - and not just the Pro-Windows ones.
I've said this before elsewhere. I have a engineer who we'll call "Mikey." Give it to Mikey, he hates *everything*. He hated Vista. Wouldn't touch it. He quickly adopted Windows 7 when it was released.
I tasked him to do some early evaluation of Windows 8 Pro using the excuse, "we're going to see clients getting these for Christmas, we need to at least have a rough understanding of how it works for the next year."
I expected him to despise it.
But he likes it. Mikey likes it!
this is a Canary in the coal-mine kind of effect. I asked him if he would consider upgrading his current laptop out-of-life-cycle to a Lenovo Thinkpad Twist with Windows 8 as his daily corporate driver at the office. He didn't hesitate for a second. He isn't afraid of that upgrade path at all.
So you've got two pretty seasoned IT veterans here who've been through the Vista era, and both of them have actually *tried* Windows 8, and both of them would use it as their main OS *professionally* in IT.
I think the predictions of Windows 8 turning into another Vista are most likely wishful thinking.
