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the situation is, but the data available from the Soviet Union is that, in their own words, "significant numbers of smaller nuclear devices are unaccounted for." In short, someone stole a large number of tactical nuclear weapons and either has them for sale or has sold them as they'd have likely used them by now if they were for personal power use. Even the US has a number of TNW on their 'can't find' weapons lists.

Some of them are likely to turn up with various terrorist organisations when they can come up with the money to buy them, and then it's anyone's guess on where they'll be used.