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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(173 results)-
White Papers
Currency Crashes And Bond Yields In Industrial Countries
May 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines episodes of sudden large exchange rate depreciations (currency crashes) in industrial countries and characterizes the behavior of government bond yields during and after these...
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White Papers
International Asset Markets And Real Exchange Rate Volatility
July 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The real exchange rate is very volatile relative to major macroeconomic aggregates and its correlation with the ratio of domestic over foreign consumption is negative (Backus-Smith puzzle). These...
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White Papers
Efficiency In Housing Markets: Do Home Buyers Know How To Discount?
October 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
For the majority of households, the purchase of a home is the largest financial decision of their lives. One may therefore assume that housing market transactions are conducted by agents who have...
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Closing Large Open Economy Models
June 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
In open economy models with incomplete asset markets the deterministic steady state depends on the initial conditions of the economy and the steady state is compatible with any level of...
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Oil Shocks And External Adjustment
May 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In reaction to the oil crises of the 1970s and early 1980s, as well as the more recent run-up in oil prices that started in 2003, the oil component of the U.S. trade balance consistently...
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Three Great American Disinflations
June 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the role of transparency and credibility in accounting for the widely divergent macroeconomic effects of three episodes of deliberate monetary contraction: the post-Civil War...
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Export Prices: Assessing Some Cross-Country Evidence
September 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
A growing body of empirical work has found evidence of a decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in a number of industrial countries. This paper complements this work by examining...
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White Papers
Trading Activity And Exchange Rates In High-Frequency EBS Data
September 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
The absence of data has, until now, precluded virtually all research on trading volume in the foreign exchange market. This paper introduces a new high-frequency foreign exchange dataset from EBS...
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White Papers
The Role Of China In Asia: Engine, Conduit, Or Steamroller?
September 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper assesses China's role in Asia as an independent engine of growth, as a conduit of demand from the industrial countries, and as a competitor for export markets. The author provides both...
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The Transmission Of Domestic Shocks In The Open Economy
November 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses an open economy DSGE model to explore how trade openness affects the transmission of domestic shocks. For some calibrations, closed and open economies appear dramatically...
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A Residual-Based Cointegration Test For Near Unit Root Variables
October 9, 2007, 12:00am PDT
Methods of inference based on a unit root assumption in the data are typically not robust to even small deviations from this assumption. This paper proposes robust procedures for a residual-based...
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White Papers
External Governance And Debt Agency Costs Of Family Firms
November 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates the impact of family block-holders on the firm's debt agency costs under different investor protection environments. On one hand, families - through their undiversified...
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White Papers
Quantitative Implications Of Indexed Bonds In Small Open Economies
October 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of real-indexed bonds, indexed to the terms of trade or GDP, using a general equilibrium model of a small open economy with financial frictions....
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White Papers
Financial Globalization And Monetary Policy
June 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews the available evidence and previous research on potential effects of financial globalization, that is, the international integration of financial markets. In particular, the...
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White Papers
Imperfect Credibility And The Zero Lower Bound On The Nominal Interest Rate
June 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
When the nominal interest rate reaches its zero lower bound, credibility is crucial for conducting forward guidance. The authors determine optimal policy in a New Keynesian model when the central...
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White Papers
News And Sovereign Default Risk In Small Open Economies
May 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper builds a model of sovereign debt in which default risk, interest rates, and debt depend not only on current fundamentals but also on news about future fundamentals. News shocks affect...
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White Papers
How Did A Domestic Housing Slump Turn Into A Global Financial Crisis?
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
The global financial crisis clearly started with problems in the U.S. subprime sector and spread across the world from there. But was the direct exposure of foreigners to the U.S. financial system...
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White Papers
Term Structure Forecasting Using Macro Factors And Forecast Combination
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
The authors examine the importance of incorporating macroeconomic information and, in particular, accounting for model uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. They...
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Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities And The Business Cycle
January 25, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper formulates and estimates a three-shock US business cycle model. The estimated model accounts for a substantial fraction of the cyclical variation in output and is consistent with the...
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White Papers
Labor Market Search In Emerging Economies
December 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper shows that labor markets of emerging economies are characterized by large fluctuations in wages while employment fluctuations are subdued. The author find that a real business cycle...
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White Papers
Asset Returns With Earnings Management
December 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper investigates stock return dynamics in an environment where executives have an incentive to maximize their compensation by artificially inflating earnings. A principal-agent model with...
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White Papers
Diversification Across Characteristics
December 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
The author study long-short portfolio strategies formed on seven different stock characteristics representing various measures of past returns, value, and size. Each individual characteristic...
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White Papers
The Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule
October 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The authors introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. Market forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy are affected by news, and...
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White Papers
On the Solvency Of Nations: Are Global Imbalances Consistent With Intertemporal Budget Constraints?
June 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Theory predicts that a nation's stochastic intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied if net foreign assets (NFA) are integrated of any finite order, or if net exports (NX) and NFA satisfy an...
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Consumption Response To Expected Future Income
May 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper shows empirical evidence in favor of forward-looking household consumption - that consumption today depends directly on household-specific ex-ante expectations of future income. This...
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White Papers
Pitfalls In Estimating Asymmetric Effects Of Energy Price Shocks
May 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. The author shows that widely used...
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Exchange Rates Dependence: What Drives It?
March 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
Exchange rate movements are difficult to predict but there appear to be discernible patterns in how currencies jointly appreciate or depreciate against the dollar. In this paper, the author...
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White Papers
Biofuels Impact On Crop And Food Prices: Using An Interactive Spreadsheet
March 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper examines the effect that biofuels production has had on commodity and global food prices. The innovative contribution of this paper is the interactive spreadsheet that allows the reader...
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Tax Smoothing In Frictional Labor Markets
January 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
The authors re-examine the optimality of tax smoothing from the point of view of frictional labor markets. Their central result is that whether or not this cornerstone optimal fiscal policy...
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The Demand For Youth: Implications For The Hours Volatility Puzzle
January 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
The employment and hours worked of young individuals fluctuate much more over the business cycle than those of prime-aged individuals. Understanding the mechanism underlying this observation is...
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The Taylor Rule And Forecast Intervals For Exchange Rates
March 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper attacks the Meese-Rogoff (exchange rate disconnect) puzzle from a different perspective: out-of-sample interval forecasting. Most studies in the literature focus on point forecasts. In...
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The Fragility Of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective
November 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Robustness and fragility in Leamer's sense are defined with respect to a particular coefficient over a class of models. This paper shows that inclusion of the data generation process in that class...
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A Non-Random Walk Revisited: Short- And Long-Term Memory In Asset Prices
November 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors test for short and long memory in asset prices across 44 emerging and industrialized economies. Using methodology from Lo and MacKinlay (1988) and Lo (1991), they find...
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Estimating The Parameters Of A Small Open Economy DSGE Model: Identifiability And Inferential Validity
November 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper estimates the parameters of a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, paying special attention to the issue of weak...
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Testing The Expectations Hypothesis When Interest Rates Are Near Integrated
October 7, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Nominal interest rates are unlikely to be generated by unit-root processes. Using data on short and long interest rates from eight developed and six emerging economies, the authors test the...
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Soft Information In Earnings Announcements: News Or Noise?
October 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines whether the "Soft" information contained in the text of management's quarterly earnings press releases is incrementally informative over the company's reported "hard" earnings...
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White Papers
Expected Consumption Growth From Cross-Country Surveys
September 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Survey data show that the expected growth rates of consumption across countries vary widely and are not highly correlated. This data contradicts the simplest of open-economy models in which there...
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Exchange Rates And Fundamentals: A Generalization
September 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than 20 years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out of sample...
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Emerging Market Business Cycles With Remittance Fluctuations
September 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the implications of remittance fluctuations for various macroeconomic variables and Sudden Stops. The paper employs a quantitative two-sector model of a small open economy with...
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White Papers
Escape From New York: The Market Impact Of SEC Rule 12h-6
September 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The authors examine the stock market impact of SEC Rule 12h-6 which eased the ability of foreign firms to deregister with the SEC and as a result terminate their U.S. disclosure obligations under...
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White Papers
U.S. Domestic And International Financial Reform Policy: Are G20 Commitments And The Dodd-Frank Act In Sync?
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 is the keystone policy response directed at reforming U.S. financial system activities and oversight in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The United States...
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White Papers
Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses a DSGE model to examine the effects of an expansion in government spending in a liquidity trap. If the liquidity trap is very prolonged, the spending multiplier can be much larger...
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Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors build and estimate a two-sector (goods and services) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories: materials (input) inventories facilitate the production...
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White Papers
Has International Financial Co-movement Changed? Emerging Markets In The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Emerging Market (EM) assets have historically been regarded as inherently risky and particularly vulnerable to international shocks that result in a general increase in investor risk perceptions....
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Could Asymmetric Information Alone Have Caused The Collapse Of Private-label Securitization?
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
A key feature of the 2007-2008 financial crisis is that for some classes of securities trade has ceased. And where trade does occur, it appears that market prices are well below what one might...
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Fiscal Positions And Government Bond Yields In OECD Countries
December 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
The authors examine the impact of fiscal positions, both the level of debt and the fiscal balance, on long-term government bond yields in the OECD. In order to control for the endogenity of fiscal...
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Asymmetric Shocks In A Currency Union With Monetary And Fiscal Handcuffs?
December 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper investigates the impact of the asymmetric shocks within a currency union in a framework that takes account of the zero bound constraint on policy rates, and also allows for constraints...
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White Papers
Nonlinearities In The Oil Price-output Relationship
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of asymmetries,...
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International Capital Flows And The Returns To Safe Assets In The United States, 2003-2007
February 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
A broad array of domestic institutional factors - including problems with the originate-to-distribute model for mortgage loans, deteriorating lending standards, deficiencies in risk management,...
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Explaining The Energy Consumption Portfolio In A Cross-section Of Countries: Are The BRICs Different?
February 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
This paper uses disaggregated data from a broad cross-section of countries to empirically assess differences in energy consumption profiles across countries. The authors find empirical support for...
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Where Are Global And U.S. Trade Heading In The Aftermath Of The Trade Collapse: Issues And Alternative Scenarios
March 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost...
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Bank Size And Small Business Finance: Tests Of The Current Paradigm
September 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
Under the current paradigm in small business lending research, small banks have comparative advantages in lending to the smallest, least informationally transparent firms using lending...
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Interagency Statement On Meeting The Credit Needs Of Creditworthy Small Business Borrowers
May 14, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The federal financial institutions regulatory agencies and the state supervisors are issuing this Interagency Statement on Meeting the Credit Needs of Creditworthy Small Business Borrowers to...
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Recent Trends In The Number And Size Of Bank Branches: An Examination Of Likely Determinants
October 15, 2007, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the author examines the role of market characteristics in explaining the much discussed phenomenon of growth in the number of banking institution branches over time, and the much...
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White Papers
Monetary Policy Actions And Long-Run Inflation Expectations
December 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
The degree to which inflation expectations are anchored at long horizons is important for many issues in macroeconomics and finance. There has been little research examining observable measures of...
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Footnotes Aren't Enough: The Impact Of Pension Accounting On Stock Values
January 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
Some research has suggested that companies with defined benefit (DB) pensions are sometimes significantly misvalued by the market. This is because the measures of pension cost and pension net...
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The TIPS Yield Curve And Inflation Compensation
November 12, 2007, 12:00am PST
For over ten years, the U.S. Treasury has issued index-linked debt. Federal Reserve Board staff have fitted a yield curve to these indexed securities at the daily frequency from the start of 1999...
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Challenges In Macro-Finance Modeling
November 23, 2007, 12:00am PST
This paper discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "Macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a...
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Alternatives For Distressed Banks And The Panics Of The Great Depression
December 10, 2007, 12:00am PST
Several studies have explored whether the banking panics of the Great Depression caused some institutions to fail that might otherwise have survived. This paper adopts a different approach and...
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The "Growing Pains" Of TIPS Issuance
October 16, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper provides updated calculations of the relative cost to the U.S. Treasury of previously issued TIPS by comparing the payment stream on each security to that of hypothetical nominal...
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White Papers
The Human Capital That Matters: Expected Returns And The Income Of Affluent Households
September 14, 2007, 12:00am PDT
An important critique of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), first levied by Mayers (1973) and Roll (1977), is that traditional measures of the market portfolio are incomplete since they do...
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Does The NEA Crowd Out Private Charitable Contributions To The Arts?
November 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates the mechanism by which the federal government's funding of the arts through National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) displaces private charitable contributions to non-profit...
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Paying To Save: Tax Withholding And Asset Allocation Among Low - And Moderate-Income Taxpayers
December 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
The author analyzes the phenomenon that low- and moderate-income (LMI) tax filers exhibit a "preference for over-withholding" their taxes, a measure the author derives from a unique set of...
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White Papers
The Effect Of Satellite Entry On Product Quality For Cable Television
January 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
In vertically differentiated markets, the effects of firm entry are contingent upon whether incumbent firms can respond to entry by adjusting product quality in addition to simply lowering prices....
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Research and development, Profits And Firm Value: A Structural Estimation
September 16, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Is the return to private R&D as high as believed? This paper identifies a flaw in the production function approach to estimating the return to R&D. The author provides new estimates based on a...
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Revisiting The Supply-Side Effects Of Government Spending
February 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
The author revisits the macroeconomic effects of government consumption in the neoclassical growth model when agents face uninsured idiosyncratic investment risk. Under complete markets, a...
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White Papers
Firms' Relative Sensitivity To Aggregate Shocks And The Dynamics Of Gross Job Flows
November 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The author proposes a measure for the importance of aggregate shocks for fluctuations in job flows at the firm level. Using data for the Portuguese economy, it's found that large and old firms...
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White Papers
GSE Activity And Mortgage Supply In Lower-Income And Minority Neighborhoods: The Effect Of The Affordable Housing Goals
April 17, 2009, 12:00am PDT
In the 1990's Congress promoted policies to increase credit access and homeownership among lower-income and minority neighborhoods and households. Beliefs that credit access and homeownership...
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White Papers
The Shimer Puzzle And The Identification Of Productivity Shocks
October 25, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Shimer (2005) argues that the Mortensen-Pissarides (MP) model of unemployment lacks an amplification mechanism because it generates less than 10 percent of the observed business cycle fluctuations...
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State And Local Finances And The Macroeconomy: The High-Employment Budget And Fiscal Impetus
October 28, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The author examines the interplay of the economy and state and local budgets by developing and examining two measures of fiscal policy: the high-employment budget and fiscal impetus. The author...
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Factor Intensity And Price Rigidity: Evidence And Theory
December 10, 2008, 12:00am PST
This paper establishes a new empirical finding: the degree of labor intensity and the degree of price flexibility are negatively correlated across industrial sectors. I model this in an economy...
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White Papers
The Economics Of The Mutual Fund Trading Scandal
December 9, 2008, 12:00am PST
The author examines the economic incentives behind the mutual fund trading scandal, which made headlines in late 2003 with news that several asset management companies had arranged to allow...
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Modeling Earnings Dynamics
February 10, 2009, 12:00am PST
In this paper the author uses indirect inference to estimate a joint model of earnings, employment, job changes, wage rates, and work hours over a career. The model incorporates duration...
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Fluctuations In Individual Labor Income: A Panel VAR Analysis
September 9, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies variation in individual labor income over time using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) in income, the wage rate, hours of work, and hours of unemployment. The framework is...
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Salience And Taxation: Theory And Evidence
August 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper presents evidence that consumer's under-react to taxes that are not salient and characterizes the welfare consequences of tax policies when agents make such optimization errors. The...
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A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A DSGE Model
February 5, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper compares the forecasts of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with that of the Federal Reserve staff and reduced-form time-series models. The paper has...
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White Papers
Heterogeneous Car Buyers: A Stylized Fact
February 4, 2009, 12:00am PST
Prices for light vehicles tend to fall over their model year, and retrace those declines when next year's models are introduced. Using a new dataset, the author documents that the characteristics...
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White Papers
Ponds And Streams: Wealth And Income In The U.S., 1989 to 2007
January 7, 2009, 12:00am PST
Much discussion treats the working definitions of wealth and income as if they were self-evident, but definitional choices can make substantial differences in the overall picture. To provide a...
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Household Welfare, Precautionary Saving, And Social Insurance Under Multiple Sources Of Risk
November 6, 2008, 12:00am PST
This paper assesses the quantitative importance of a number of sources of income risk for household welfare and precautionary saving. To that end the author constructs a lifecycle consumption...
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Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, The Phillips Curve, And Monetary Policy
February 26, 2009, 12:00am PST
Inflation expectations play a central role in models of the Phillips curve. At long time horizons inflation expectations may reflect the credibility of a monetary authority's commitment to price...
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