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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(213 results)-
White Papers
Currency Crashes And Bond Yields In Industrial Countries
May 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines episodes of sudden large exchange rate depreciations (currency crashes) in industrial countries and characterizes the behavior of government bond yields during and after these...
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White Papers
Are Antidumping Duties For Sale? Case-Level Evidence On The Grossman-Helpman Protection For Sale Model
December 1, 2006, 12:00am PST
As successive rounds of global trade liberalization have lowered broad industry-level tariffs, antidumping duties have emerged as a WTO-consistent means of protecting certain industries. Using the...
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White Papers
Flying Geese Or Sitting Ducks: China's Impact On The Trading Fortunes Of Other Asian Economies
December 1, 2006, 12:00am PST
This paper updates the earlier work on whether China, with its huge pool of labor and an allegedly undervalued exchange rate, is hurting the export performance of other emerging market economies...
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White Papers
International Asset Markets And Real Exchange Rate Volatility
July 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The real exchange rate is very volatile relative to major macroeconomic aggregates and its correlation with the ratio of domestic over foreign consumption is negative (Backus-Smith puzzle). These...
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Measurement Matters For Modeling U.S. Import Prices
December 1, 2006, 12:00am PST
This paper focuses on capturing the increasingly important role that emerging economies play in determining U.S. import prices. Emerging market producers differ from others in two respects: (1)...
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Changes In Job Quality And Trends In Labor Hours
October 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Many economic models featuring labor supply decisions, especially in macroeconomic analysis, assume away heterogeneity in the nature of work, or assume that the nature of work is irrelevant to the...
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Predicting Sharp Depreciations In Industrial Country Exchange Rates
November 1, 2006, 12:00am PST
This paper considers the prediction of large depreciations (both nominal and real) in a panel of industrialized countries using a probit methodology. The current account balance/GDP ratio has a...
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White Papers
Efficiency In Housing Markets: Do Home Buyers Know How To Discount?
October 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
For the majority of households, the purchase of a home is the largest financial decision of their lives. One may therefore assume that housing market transactions are conducted by agents who have...
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White Papers
Sovereign Debt Crises And Credit To The Private Sector
November 7, 2006, 12:00am PST
In the last two decades of the 20th century, emerging markets experienced a lending boom. Not surprisingly, this boom was accompanied by a number of sovereign debt renegotiation episodes. Many of...
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White Papers
Informed And Strategic Order Flow In The Bond Markets
September 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Identifying the causes of daily asset price movements remains a puzzling issue in finance. In a frictionless market, asset prices should immediately adjust to public news surprises. Hence, one...
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White Papers
Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, And TFP: Accounting For The Decline In U.S. Volatility
August 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses an equilibrium model assess the quantitative importance of monetary policy for the post-1984 decline in U.S. inflation and output volatility. The principal finding is that monetary...
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White Papers
The Monetary Origins Of Asymmetric Information In International Equity Markets
September 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Existing studies using low-frequency data have found that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation. However, these papers have not accounted for the...
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White Papers
Real-Time Price Discovery In Global Stock, Bond And Foreign Exchange Markets
September 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, the author characterizes the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. It's...
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White Papers
Ramsey Meets Hosios: The Optimal Capital Tax And Labor Market Efficiency
September 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Heterogeneity between unemployed and employed individuals matters for optimal fiscal policy. This paper considers the consequences of welfare heterogeneity between these two groups for the...
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White Papers
Closing Large Open Economy Models
June 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
In open economy models with incomplete asset markets the deterministic steady state depends on the initial conditions of the economy and the steady state is compatible with any level of...
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White Papers
Does The Time Inconsistency Problem Make Flexible Exchange Rates Look Worse Than You Think?
August 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
The Barro-Gordon inflation bias has provided an influential argument for fixed exchange rate regimes. However, with low inflation rates now widespread, credibility concerns seem no longer...
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White Papers
Trade Integration, Competition, And The Decline In Exchange-Rate Pass-Through
August 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
An important factor influencing trade balance dynamics and the transmission of business cycle across countries is the responsiveness of import prices to exchange-rate movements. To the extent that...
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White Papers
Transmission Of Volatility And Trading Activity In The Global Interdealer Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from Electronic Broking Services (EBS) Data
June 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies the transmission of volatility and trading activity in the foreign exchange market across trading regions for the euro-dollar and dollar-yen currency pairs, using high frequency...
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White Papers
Markov Switching GARCH Models Of Currency Turmoil In Southeast Asia
January 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes exchange rate turmoil with a Markov Switching GARCH model. The author distinguishes between two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance:...
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White Papers
Some Simple Tests Of The Globalization And Inflation Hypothesis
April 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies....
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White Papers
U.S. External Adjustment: Is It Disorderly? Is It Unique? Will It Disrupt The Rest Of The World?
April 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
In recent years, a number of studies have analyzed the experiences of a broad range of industrial economies during periods when their current account deficits have narrowed. Such studies...
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White Papers
Optimal Fiscal And Monetary Policy With Costly Wage Bargaining
April 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
Costly nominal wage adjustment has received renewed attention in the design of optimal policy. In this paper, the author embeds costly nominal wage adjustment into the modern theory of frictional...
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White Papers
A Note On The Coefficient Of Determination In Models With Infinite Variance Variables
May 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
It is standard procedure in economic modelling and estimation to assume that random variables are normally distributed. In empirical work, con…dence intervals and signi…cance tests are...
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White Papers
Oil Shocks And External Adjustment
May 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In reaction to the oil crises of the 1970s and early 1980s, as well as the more recent run-up in oil prices that started in 2003, the oil component of the U.S. trade balance consistently...
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White Papers
Three Great American Disinflations
June 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the role of transparency and credibility in accounting for the widely divergent macroeconomic effects of three episodes of deliberate monetary contraction: the post-Civil War...
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White Papers
Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Export Prices: Assessing Some Cross-Country Evidence
September 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
A growing body of empirical work has found evidence of a decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in a number of industrial countries. This paper complements this work by examining...
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White Papers
Trading Activity And Exchange Rates In High-Frequency EBS Data
September 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
The absence of data has, until now, precluded virtually all research on trading volume in the foreign exchange market. This paper introduces a new high-frequency foreign exchange dataset from EBS...
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White Papers
The Role Of China In Asia: Engine, Conduit, Or Steamroller?
September 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper assesses China's role in Asia as an independent engine of growth, as a conduit of demand from the industrial countries, and as a competitor for export markets. The author provides both...
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White Papers
The Transmission Of Domestic Shocks In The Open Economy
November 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses an open economy DSGE model to explore how trade openness affects the transmission of domestic shocks. For some calibrations, closed and open economies appear dramatically...
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White Papers
A Residual-Based Cointegration Test For Near Unit Root Variables
October 9, 2007, 12:00am PDT
Methods of inference based on a unit root assumption in the data are typically not robust to even small deviations from this assumption. This paper proposes robust procedures for a residual-based...
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White Papers
External Governance And Debt Agency Costs Of Family Firms
November 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates the impact of family block-holders on the firm's debt agency costs under different investor protection environments. On one hand, families - through their undiversified...
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White Papers
Quantitative Implications Of Indexed Bonds In Small Open Economies
October 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of real-indexed bonds, indexed to the terms of trade or GDP, using a general equilibrium model of a small open economy with financial frictions....
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White Papers
Robust Monetary Policy With Imperfect Knowledge
April 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
The author examines the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents...
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White Papers
Financial Globalization And Monetary Policy
June 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews the available evidence and previous research on potential effects of financial globalization, that is, the international integration of financial markets. In particular, the...
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White Papers
Imperfect Credibility And The Zero Lower Bound On The Nominal Interest Rate
June 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
When the nominal interest rate reaches its zero lower bound, credibility is crucial for conducting forward guidance. The authors determine optimal policy in a New Keynesian model when the central...
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White Papers
News And Sovereign Default Risk In Small Open Economies
May 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper builds a model of sovereign debt in which default risk, interest rates, and debt depend not only on current fundamentals but also on news about future fundamentals. News shocks affect...
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White Papers
How Did A Domestic Housing Slump Turn Into A Global Financial Crisis?
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
The global financial crisis clearly started with problems in the U.S. subprime sector and spread across the world from there. But was the direct exposure of foreigners to the U.S. financial system...
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White Papers
Term Structure Forecasting Using Macro Factors And Forecast Combination
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
The authors examine the importance of incorporating macroeconomic information and, in particular, accounting for model uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. They...
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White Papers
Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities And The Business Cycle
January 25, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper formulates and estimates a three-shock US business cycle model. The estimated model accounts for a substantial fraction of the cyclical variation in output and is consistent with the...
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White Papers
Labor Market Search In Emerging Economies
December 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper shows that labor markets of emerging economies are characterized by large fluctuations in wages while employment fluctuations are subdued. The author find that a real business cycle...
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White Papers
U.S. Domestic And International Financial Reform Policy: Are G20 Commitments And The Dodd-Frank Act In Sync?
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 is the keystone policy response directed at reforming U.S. financial system activities and oversight in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The United States...
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White Papers
Before Leadership South Carolina, Greenville, South Carolina
August 31, 2006, 12:00am PDT
One of the most important economic developments in the United States in the past decade or so has been a sustained increase in the growth rate of labor productivity, or output per hour of work....
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses a DSGE model to examine the effects of an expansion in government spending in a liquidity trap. If the liquidity trap is very prolonged, the spending multiplier can be much larger...
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White Papers
Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors build and estimate a two-sector (goods and services) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories: materials (input) inventories facilitate the production...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Has International Financial Co-movement Changed? Emerging Markets In The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Emerging Market (EM) assets have historically been regarded as inherently risky and particularly vulnerable to international shocks that result in a general increase in investor risk perceptions....
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Could Asymmetric Information Alone Have Caused The Collapse Of Private-label Securitization?
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
A key feature of the 2007-2008 financial crisis is that for some classes of securities trade has ceased. And where trade does occur, it appears that market prices are well below what one might...
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White Papers
Fiscal Positions And Government Bond Yields In OECD Countries
December 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
The authors examine the impact of fiscal positions, both the level of debt and the fiscal balance, on long-term government bond yields in the OECD. In order to control for the endogenity of fiscal...
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White Papers
Asymmetric Shocks In A Currency Union With Monetary And Fiscal Handcuffs?
December 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper investigates the impact of the asymmetric shocks within a currency union in a framework that takes account of the zero bound constraint on policy rates, and also allows for constraints...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Nonlinearities In The Oil Price-output Relationship
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of asymmetries,...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
International Capital Flows And The Returns To Safe Assets In The United States, 2003-2007
February 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
A broad array of domestic institutional factors - including problems with the originate-to-distribute model for mortgage loans, deteriorating lending standards, deficiencies in risk management,...
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Explaining The Energy Consumption Portfolio In A Cross-section Of Countries: Are The BRICs Different?
February 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
This paper uses disaggregated data from a broad cross-section of countries to empirically assess differences in energy consumption profiles across countries. The authors find empirical support for...
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White Papers
Where Are Global And U.S. Trade Heading In The Aftermath Of The Trade Collapse: Issues And Alternative Scenarios
March 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Bank Size And Small Business Finance: Tests Of The Current Paradigm
September 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
Under the current paradigm in small business lending research, small banks have comparative advantages in lending to the smallest, least informationally transparent firms using lending...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Interagency Statement On Meeting The Credit Needs Of Creditworthy Small Business Borrowers
May 14, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The federal financial institutions regulatory agencies and the state supervisors are issuing this Interagency Statement on Meeting the Credit Needs of Creditworthy Small Business Borrowers to...
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White Papers
A Retrospective Evaluation Of The Effects Of Temporary Partial Expensing
April 1, 2006, 12:00am PST
This paper examines how business investment responded to temporary partial expensing, first enacted in 2002 and expanded in 2003. In principle, partial expensing boosted the incentive to invest...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve: 1961 To The Present
June 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
The discount function, which determines the value of all future nominal payments, is the most basic building block of finance and is usually inferred from the Treasury yield curve. It is therefore...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
GSEs, Mortgage Rates, And Secondary Market Activities
September 8, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that securitize mortgages and issue mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In addition, the GSEs are active participants in the...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Why Are Plant Deaths Countercyclical: Reallocation Timing Or Fragility?
June 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Because plant deaths destroy specific capital with large local economic impacts and potentially important macroeconomic effects, understanding the causes of deaths and, in particular, why they are...
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White Papers
Requirements And Prospects For A New Time To Payoff Disclosure For Open End Credit Under Truth In Lending
July 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
The Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (Public Law 109-8, April 2005) made significant changes to procedures for managing consumer bankruptcy petitions, but it also...
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White Papers
Realized Jumps On Financial Markets And Predicting Credit Spreads
August 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper extends the jump detection method based on bi-power variation to identify realized jumps on financial markets and to estimate parametrically the jump intensity, mean, and variance....
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Incompatibility And Investment In ATM Networks
September 19, 2006, 12:00am PDT
The literature on compatibility in industries with network effects notes that incompatibility across systems may influence consumer welfare in two opposing directions. On the one hand,...
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White Papers
Social Security's Delayed Retirement Credit And The Labor Supply Of Older Men
August 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper presents estimates of the impact of Social Security's Delayed Retirement Credit on the employment rates of older men. The credit raises lifetime social security benefit payments for...
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White Papers
A Model In Which Outside And Inside Money Are Essential
October 17, 2006, 12:00am PDT
The fact that credit relationships among individuals are an alternative to money as a means of exchange provides a challenge to any model of money. If credit relationships are rich enough, money...
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White Papers
Incorporating Judgement In Fan Charts
September 25, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of...
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White Papers
Acquisition Targets And Motives In The Banking Industry
September 19, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses a large sample of individual banking organizations, observed from 1996 to 2003, to investigate the characteristics that made them more likely to be acquired. The author uses a...
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White Papers
The Profitability Of Small, Single-Market Banks In An Era Of Multimarket Banking
July 18, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the relationship between multimarket bank presence and the profitability (and therefore viability) of small, single-market banks. It's found that increased presence of...
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White Papers
An Estimate Of The Inflation Risk Premium Using A Three-Factor Affine Term Structure Model
November 21, 2006, 12:00am PST
This paper decomposes nominal Treasury yields into expected real rates, expected inflation rates, real risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums by separately calibrating a three factor affine...
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White Papers
Shifting Trends In Semiconductor Prices And The Pace Of Technological Progress
September 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines three questions motivated by previous research on semiconductors and productivity growth: Why did semiconductor prices fall so rapidly in the second half of the 1990s, why has...
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White Papers
The Competitive Effects Of Risk-Based Bank Capital Regulation: An Example From U.S. Mortgage Markets
August 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Basel II bank capital regulations are designed to be substantially more risk sensitive than the current regulations. In the United States, only the largest banks would be required to adopt Basel...
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White Papers
Recent Trends In The Number And Size Of Bank Branches: An Examination Of Likely Determinants
October 15, 2007, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the author examines the role of market characteristics in explaining the much discussed phenomenon of growth in the number of banking institution branches over time, and the much...
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White Papers
Monetary Policy Actions And Long-Run Inflation Expectations
December 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
The degree to which inflation expectations are anchored at long horizons is important for many issues in macroeconomics and finance. There has been little research examining observable measures of...
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White Papers
Footnotes Aren't Enough: The Impact Of Pension Accounting On Stock Values
January 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
Some research has suggested that companies with defined benefit (DB) pensions are sometimes significantly misvalued by the market. This is because the measures of pension cost and pension net...
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White Papers
The TIPS Yield Curve And Inflation Compensation
November 12, 2007, 12:00am PST
For over ten years, the U.S. Treasury has issued index-linked debt. Federal Reserve Board staff have fitted a yield curve to these indexed securities at the daily frequency from the start of 1999...
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White Papers
Challenges In Macro-Finance Modeling
November 23, 2007, 12:00am PST
This paper discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "Macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a...
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White Papers
Alternatives For Distressed Banks And The Panics Of The Great Depression
December 10, 2007, 12:00am PST
Several studies have explored whether the banking panics of the Great Depression caused some institutions to fail that might otherwise have survived. This paper adopts a different approach and...
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The "Growing Pains" Of TIPS Issuance
October 16, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper provides updated calculations of the relative cost to the U.S. Treasury of previously issued TIPS by comparing the payment stream on each security to that of hypothetical nominal...
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White Papers
The Human Capital That Matters: Expected Returns And The Income Of Affluent Households
September 14, 2007, 12:00am PDT
An important critique of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), first levied by Mayers (1973) and Roll (1977), is that traditional measures of the market portfolio are incomplete since they do...
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White Papers
Does The NEA Crowd Out Private Charitable Contributions To The Arts?
November 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates the mechanism by which the federal government's funding of the arts through National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) displaces private charitable contributions to non-profit...
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Paying To Save: Tax Withholding And Asset Allocation Among Low - And Moderate-Income Taxpayers
December 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
The author analyzes the phenomenon that low- and moderate-income (LMI) tax filers exhibit a "preference for over-withholding" their taxes, a measure the author derives from a unique set of...
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White Papers
The Effect Of Satellite Entry On Product Quality For Cable Television
January 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
In vertically differentiated markets, the effects of firm entry are contingent upon whether incumbent firms can respond to entry by adjusting product quality in addition to simply lowering prices....
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