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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(173 results)-
White Papers
The Credit Market Consequences Of Job Displacement
March 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper demonstrates the important role of job displacement in the household bankruptcy decision. The author develops a dynamic, forward-looking model of unemployment and bankruptcy where...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Credit Where None Is Due? Authorized User Account Status And "Piggybacking Credit"
March 5, 2010, 12:00am PST
An "Authorized user" is a person who is permitted by a revolving account holder to use an account without being legally liable for any charges incurred. The Federal Reserve's Regulation B, which...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Financial Market Shocks During The Great Depression
October 22, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the effect of shocks observed in financial markets on output and employment during the Great Depression. The author presents three main findings. First, an adverse financial...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Structural Shocks And The Comovements Between Output And Interest Rates
February 18, 2010, 12:00am PST
Stylized facts on U.S. output and interest rates have so far proved hard to match with DSGE models. But model predictions hinge on the joint specification of economic structure and a set of...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Financial Statistics For The United States And The Crisis: What Did They Get Right, What Did They Miss, And How Should They Change?
April 15, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Although the instruments and transactions most closely associated with the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 were novel, the underlying themes that played out in the crisis were familiar from...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Tips From TIPS: The Informational Content Of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices
December 29, 2009, 12:00am PST
TIPS breakeven inflation rate, defined as the difference between nominal and TIPS yields of comparable maturities, is potentially useful as a real-time measure of market inflation expectations. In...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Using A Projection Method To Analyze Inflation Bias In A Micro-Founded Model
February 17, 2010, 12:00am PST
Since Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), most studies of the problem of the inflation bias associated with discretionary monetary policy have assumed a quadratic loss...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
General-Equilibrium Effects Of Investment Tax Incentives
February 22, 2010, 12:00am PST
The past two U.S. recessions have seen the enactment of sizeable fiscal stimulus packages. In each case, these packages have included significant provisions for temporary partial expensing...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Commercial And Residential Land Prices Across The United States
May 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The author uses a national dataset of land sales to construct land price indexes for 23 MSAs in the United States and for the aggregate of those MSAs. The author constructs the price indexes by...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Real-Time Model Uncertainty In The United States: 'Robust' policies put to the test
November 19, 2009, 12:00am PST
The author studies 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Re-serve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty, also the...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Variance Risk Premia, Asset Predictability Puzzles, And Macroeconomic Uncertainty
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper presents predictability evidence from the difference between implied and expected variances or variance risk premium that: (1) the variance difference measure predicts a significant...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Mergers And Sequential Innovation: Evidence From Patent Citations
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
An extensive literature has investigated the effect of market structure on innovation. A persistent concern is that market structure may be endogenous to innovation. Firms may choose to merge so...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Managing Beliefs About Monetary Policy Under Discretion
August 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
In models of monetary policy, discretionary policymaking often lacks the ability to manage public beliefs, which explains the theoretical appeal of policy rules and commitment strategies. But as...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Pricing Counterparty Risk At The Trade Level And CVA Allocations
November 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The paper addresses the problem of allocating the counterparty-level credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to the individual trades composing the portfolio. The author shows that this problem can be...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Are Spectral Estimators Useful For Implementing Long-Run Restrictions In SVARs?
July 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
No, not really, since spectral estimators suffer from small sample and misspecification biases just as VARs do. Spectral estimators are no panacea for implementing long-run restrictions. In...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Distance Still Matters: The Information Revolution In Small Business Lending And The Persistent Role Of Location, 1993-2003
December 17, 2009, 12:00am PST
During the past several decades, technological improvements have permitted banks to interact with customers more efficiently (e.g., online banking and automated teller machines) and to measure and...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Mechanics Of A Graceful Exit: Interest On Reserves And Segmentation In The Federal Funds Market
December 15, 2009, 12:00am PST
To combat the financial crisis that intensified in the fall of 2008, the Federal Reserve injected a substantial amount of liquidity into the banking system. The resulting increase in reserve...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Finances Of American Households In The Past Three Recessions: Evidence From The Survey Of Consumer Finances
December 10, 2009, 12:00am PST
The downturn in economic activity in the U.S. that began in December 2007 (as determined by researchers with the National Bureau of Economic Research) has been noticeably deeper and has already...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Constant Proportion Debt Obligations: A Post-Mortem Analysis Of Rating Models
September 23, 2009, 12:00am PDT
In its complexity and its vulnerability to market volatility, the CPDO might be viewed as the poster child for the excesses of financial engineering in the credit market. This paper examines the...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Income Taxes, Compensating Differentials, And Occupational Choice: How Taxes Distort The Wage-Amenity Decision
January 21, 2010, 12:00am PST
The link between taxes and occupational choices is central for understanding the welfare impacts of income taxes. Just as taxes distort the labor-leisure decision, they also distort the...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Impact Of Low-Skilled Immigration On The Youth Labor Market
December 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
The employment-to-population rate of high-school aged youth has fallen by about 20 percentage points since the late 1980s. The human capital implications of this decline depend on the reasons...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Monetary Policy And The Housing Bubble
December 22, 2009, 12:00am PST
Residential investment in the United States averaged about 4½ percent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) from 1974 to 2002. After 2002, activity in housing markets strengthened considerably,...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
A Dynamic Analysis Of Consolidation In The Broadcast Television Industry
October 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper estimates a dynamic oligopoly model in order to separately identify the demand-side and cost-side advantages of consolidation in the broadcast television industry. The author exploits...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Information Sharing And Stock Market Participation: Evidence From Extended Families
September 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the author documents that, controlling for observable characteristics, household investors' likelihood of entering the stock market within the next five...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Firm Volatility And Banks: Evidence From U.S. Banking Deregulation
September 23, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper exploits the staggered timing of state-level banking deregulation in the United States during the 1980s to study the causal effect of banking integration on the volatility of...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Household Response To The 2008 Tax Rebates: Survey Evidence And Aggregate Implications
November 10, 2009, 12:00am PST
Only about one-fifth of respondents in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey report that the 2008 tax rebates led them to mostly increase spending, while over half said it would lead them to...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Assessing The Systemic Risk Of A Heterogeneous Portfolio Of Banks During The Recent Financial Crisis
October 29, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper extends the approach of measuring and stress-testing the systemic risk of a banking sector in Huang, Zhou, and Zhu (2009) to identifying various sources of financial instability and to...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Designing Loan Modifications To Address The Mortgage Crisis And The Making Home Affordable Program
October 27, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Delinquencies on residential mortgages and home foreclosures have risen dramatically in the past couple of years. The mortgage losses triggered a broad-based financial crisis and severe recession,...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Reversing The Trend: The Recent Expansion Of The Reverse Mortgage Market
September 22, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Reverse mortgages allow elderly homeowners to tap into their housing wealth with-out having to sell or move out of their homes. However, very few eligible homeowners have used reverse mortgages to...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Education's Role In China's Structural Transformation
September 2, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper explores education's role in improving the allocation of labor between China's agricultural and nonagricultural sectors and measure the portion of China's recent growth attributable to...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Bayesian Analysis Of Stochastic Volatility Models With Levy Jumps: Application To Risk Analysis
July 30, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes a broad class of continuous-time jump diffusion models of asset returns. In the models, stochastic volatility can arise either from a diffusion part, or a jump part, or both....
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Credit Card Redlining Revisited
September 17, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Using a proprietary dataset of credit bureau records, Cohen-Cole (2008) finds that banks set credit limits on revolving accounts based in part on the racial composition of the neighborhood in...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Evolution Of A Financial Crisis: Panic In The Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Market
August 18, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The U.S. asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market erupted in late summer of 2007 and played a pivotal role in the global financial crisis that would become increasingly severe. In the ABCP...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Vacancy Posting, Job Separation And Unemployment Fluctuations
July 20, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies the relative importance of the two main determinants of cyclical unemployment fluctuations: vacancy posting and job separation. Using a matching function to model the flow of...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
And Banking For All?
August 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper presents data from a new survey of low- and moderate-income households in Detroit to examine bank account usage and alternative financial service (AFS) products. The author finds that...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Determinants Of The Locations Of Payday Lenders, Pawnshops And Check-Cashing Outlets
June 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
A large and growing number of low-to-moderate income U.S. households rely upon alternative financial service providers (AFSPs) for a variety of credit products and transaction services, including...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Improving Real-Time Estimates Of The Output Gap
April 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates strategies for real-time estimation of the output gap. First, the author examines estimates from univariate models with stochastic cycles. This corresponds to the use of...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Does Tax Policy Affect Executive Compensation? Evidence From Postwar Tax Reforms
May 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Evidence since the 1980s suggests that the level and structure of executive compensation in U.S. public corporations are largely unresponsive to tax incentives. However, the relative tax advantage...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Does Speculation Affect Spot Price Levels? The Case Of Metals With And Without Futures Markets
May 26, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper finds no evidence that speculative activity in futures markets for industrial metals caused higher spot prices in recent years. The empirical analysis focuses on industrial metals with...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Role Of The Securitization Process In The Expansion Of Subprime Credit
April 22, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The author analyzes the structure and attributes of subprime mortgage-backed securitization deals originated between 1997 and 2007. The data set allows one to link loan-level data for over 6.7...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Mergers And Sequential Innovation: Evidence From Patent Citations
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
An extensive literature has investigated the effect of market structure on innovation. A persistent concern is that market structure may be endogenous to innovation. Firms may choose to merge so...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Variance Risk Premia, Asset Predictability Puzzles, And Macroeconomic Uncertainty
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper presents predictability evidence from the difference between implied and expected variances or variance risk premium that: (1) the variance difference measure predicts a significant...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Real-Time Model Uncertainty In The United States: 'Robust' policies put to the test
November 19, 2009, 12:00am PST
The author studies 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Re-serve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty, also the...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Commercial And Residential Land Prices Across The United States
May 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The author uses a national dataset of land sales to construct land price indexes for 23 MSAs in the United States and for the aggregate of those MSAs. The author constructs the price indexes by...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
General-Equilibrium Effects Of Investment Tax Incentives
February 22, 2010, 12:00am PST
The past two U.S. recessions have seen the enactment of sizeable fiscal stimulus packages. In each case, these packages have included significant provisions for temporary partial expensing...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Using A Projection Method To Analyze Inflation Bias In A Micro-Founded Model
February 17, 2010, 12:00am PST
Since Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), most studies of the problem of the inflation bias associated with discretionary monetary policy have assumed a quadratic loss...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Tips From TIPS: The Informational Content Of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices
December 29, 2009, 12:00am PST
TIPS breakeven inflation rate, defined as the difference between nominal and TIPS yields of comparable maturities, is potentially useful as a real-time measure of market inflation expectations. In...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Financial Statistics For The United States And The Crisis: What Did They Get Right, What Did They Miss, And How Should They Change?
April 15, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Although the instruments and transactions most closely associated with the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 were novel, the underlying themes that played out in the crisis were familiar from...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Structural Shocks And The Comovements Between Output And Interest Rates
February 18, 2010, 12:00am PST
Stylized facts on U.S. output and interest rates have so far proved hard to match with DSGE models. But model predictions hinge on the joint specification of economic structure and a set of...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Financial Market Shocks During The Great Depression
October 22, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the effect of shocks observed in financial markets on output and employment during the Great Depression. The author presents three main findings. First, an adverse financial...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Credit Where None Is Due? Authorized User Account Status And "Piggybacking Credit"
March 5, 2010, 12:00am PST
An "Authorized user" is a person who is permitted by a revolving account holder to use an account without being legally liable for any charges incurred. The Federal Reserve's Regulation B, which...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
The Credit Market Consequences Of Job Displacement
March 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper demonstrates the important role of job displacement in the household bankruptcy decision. The author develops a dynamic, forward-looking model of unemployment and bankruptcy where...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
-
White Papers
Implications Of Behavioral Research For The Use And Regulation Of Consumer Credit Products
March 31, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews the behavioral literature on inter-temporal choice and decision making under uncertainty and assesses the evidence on behavioral influences affecting consumers' credit...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
How Has The Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?
April 30, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The author discusses the evolution in macroeconomic thought on the monetary policy transmission mechanism and present related empirical evidence. The core channels of policy transmission - the...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Output Gaps
March 18, 2010, 12:00am PDT
What is the output gap? There are many definitions in the economics literature, all of which have a long history. The author discusses three alternatives: the deviation of output from its long-run...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Industry Evidence On The Effects Of Government Spending
February 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper investigates industry-level effects of government purchases in order to shed light on the transmission mechanism for government spending on the aggregate economy. The author begins by...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Documentation Of The Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-Based (EDO) Model Of The U.S. Economy: 2010 Version
March 25, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper contains documentation for the large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy currently used at the Federal Reserve Board for some forecasting and policy projects - the Estimated,...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
An Alternative Theory Of The Plant Size Distribution With An Application To Trade
April 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
There is wide variation in the sizes of manufacturing plants, even within the most narrowly defined industry classifications used by statistical agencies. Standard theories attribute all such size...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Consumption Responses To Permanent And Transitory Shocks To House Appreciation
April 7, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The author estimates the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of permanent and transitory shocks to house price appreciation. Besides borrowing constraints, the author considers two different...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Effects Of The 2003 Dividend Tax Cut: Evidence From Real Estate Investment Trusts
April 23, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Recent literature has estimated that the 2003 dividend tax cut caused a large in-crease in aggregate dividend payouts, which would imply that dividend taxation creates large efficiency costs...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Depth Of Negative Equity And Mortgage Default Decisions
May 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
A central question in the literature on mortgage default is at what point underwater homeowners walk away from their homes even if they can afford to pay. The author studies borrowers from...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Granularity Adjustment For Mark-To-Market Credit Risk Models
June 3, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The impact of undiversified idiosyncratic risk on value-at-risk and expected shortfall can be approximated analytically via a methodology known as granularity adjustment (GA). In principle, the GA...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Exports, Borders, Distance, And Plant Size
May 10, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The fact that large manufacturing plants export relatively more than small plants has been at the foundation of much work in the international trade literature. The author examines this fact using...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Check In The Mail Or More In The Paycheck: Does The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Stimulus Depend On How It Is Delivered?
July 26, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Recent fiscal policies have aimed to stimulate household spending. In 2008, most households received one-time economic stimulus payments. In 2009, most working households received the Making Work...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Money, Reserves, And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy: Does The Money Multiplier Exist?
May 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
With the use of nontraditional policy tools, the level of reserve balances has risen significantly in the United States since 2007. Before the financial crisis, reserve balances were roughly $20...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Fiscal Policy In The United States: Automatic Stabilizers, Discretionary Fiscal Policy Actions, And The Economy
June 28, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the effects of the economy on the government budget as well as the effects of the budget on the economy. First, the author provides measures of the effects of automatic...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
A Semiparametric Characterization Of Income Uncertainty Over The Life Cycle
July 14, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Income uncertainty plays an important role in household decisions regarding consumption, saving, and investment. First, in the presence of incomplete financial markets, households facing...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Information Content Of High-Frequency Data For Estimating Equity Return Models And Forecasting Risk
July 25, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The author demonstrate that the parameters controlling skewness and kurtosis in popular equity return models estimated at daily frequency can be obtained almost as precisely as if volatility is...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
An Analysis Of Government Guarantees And The Functioning Of Asset-Backed Securities Markets
September 7, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Mortgage securitization has been tried several times in the United States and each time it has failed amid a credit bust. In what is now a familiar recurring history, during the credit boom,...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Less Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation Of Timing, Breadth And Potential Explanations
August 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
Using Bayesian tests for a structural break at an unknown break date, the authors search for a volatility reduction within the post-war sample for the growth rates of U.S. aggregate and...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Growth-Led Exports: Implications For The Cross-Country Effects Of Shocks To Potential Output
June 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Fast-growing countries tend to experience rapid export growth with little secular change in their terms of trade. This contradicts most international macroeconomic models, which predict that...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Monthly Estimates Of U.S. Cross-Border Securities Positions
November 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper reports monthly estimates of U.S. cross-border securities positions obtained by combining the (now) annual TIC surveys with monthly transactions data adjusted for various differences in...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
The Stambaugh Bias In Panel Predictive Regressions
November 29, 2007, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes predictive regressions in a panel data setting. The standard fixed effects estimator suffers from a small sample bias, which is the analogue of the Stambaugh bias in...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Testing For Cointegration Using The Johansen Methodology When Variables Are Near-Integrated
December 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
The authors investigate the properties of Johansen's (1988, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for cointegration under the empirically relevant situation of near-integrated variables. Using...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Loose Commitment
December 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
Due to time-inconsistency or policymakers' turnover, economic promises are not always fulfilled and plans are revised periodically. This fact is not accounted for in the commitment or the...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Measuring U.S. International Relative Prices: A WARP View Of The World
January 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
In this paper the authors construct a new measure of U.S. prices relative to those of its trading partners and use it to reexamine the behavior of U.S. net exports. Their measure differs from...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
On The Application Of Automatic Differentiation To The Likelihood Function
February 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
A key application of automatic differentiation (AD) is to facilitate numerical optimization problems. Such problems are at the core of many estimation techniques, including maximum likelihood. As...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
A Solution To The Default Risk-Business Cycle Disconnect
March 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
Models of business cycles in emerging economies explain the negative correlation between country spreads and output by modeling default risk as an exogenous interest rate on working capital....
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Bank Integration And Financial Constraints: Evidence From U.S. Firms
March 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
This paper uses data on publicly-traded firms in the U.S. to analyze the effect of interstate bank integration on the financial constraints borrowers face. A firm-level investment equation is...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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White Papers
Predicting Cycles In Economic Activity
April 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Predicting cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging but important aspects of economic forecasting. This paper reports the results from estimation of binary probit models that...
Provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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