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Central Bank of Chile
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Fiscal Multipliers And Policy Coordination
May 20, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of fiscal policy at zero nominal interest rates. The author solves a stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices assuming that the government...
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Chile's Fiscal Rule As Social Insurance
May 13, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors explore the role of fiscal policy over the business cycle from a normative perspective, for a government with a highly volatile and exogenous revenue source. Instead of resorting to...
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Short-Term GDP Forecasting Using Bridge Models: A Case For Chile
May 13, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The aim of this paper is to provide a forecasting tool that facilitates understanding economic developments in a timely manner. This is pursued through the Bridge Model approach by using it to...
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Introducing Financial Assets Into Structural Models
May 13, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews extensively the literature on asset pricing and builds a structural dynamic general equilibrium model with financial assets. The authors obtain the policy function of the...
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Procyclicality Of Fiscal Policy In Emerging Countries: The Cycle Is The Trend
May 13, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses the Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) methodology in order to estimate whether "The cycle is the trend" in 23 emerging markets and 22 OECD economies. These estimates are then used to test...
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Taxes And The Labor Market
May 16, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors estimate the effect of exogenous changes in taxes on the US unemployment rate and on several other labor market variables. The estimates are based on a revised version of the Romer and...
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The Optimal Inflation Tax In The Presence Of Imperfect Deposit - Currency Substitution
March 22, 2011, 12:00am PDT
During the last decades, technological innovation has generated a major transformation in payment systems, stimulating a widespread use of different forms of electronic money and increasing...
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Tightening Tensions: Fiscal Policy And Civil Unrest In Eleven South American Countries, 1937 - 1995
February 11, 2011, 12:00am PST
Efforts at fiscal consolidation are often limited because of concerns over potential social unrest. From German austerity measures during the 1930s to the violent demonstrations in Greece in 2010,...
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Riding The Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies Of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters In Latin America And The Caribbean
February 11, 2011, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes recent fiscal policies of nonrenewable resource exporting countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in the context of sharp swings in resource prices. Fiscal policies were...
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A Bunch Of Models, A Bunch Of Nulls And Inference About Predictive Ability
February 7, 2011, 12:00am PST
Inference about predictive ability is usually carried out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two competing forecasting methods. Nevertheless, some interesting questions are concerned with...
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A Solution To Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered By Chile
January 14, 2011, 12:00am PST
Historically, many countries have suffered a pattern of procyclical fiscal policy: spending too much in booms and then forced to cut back in recessions, thereby exacerbating the business cycle....
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Extracting GDP Signals From The Monthly Indicator Of Economic Activity: Evidence From Chilean Real-time Data
October 25, 2010, 12:00am PDT
With real-time data it is analyzed what information Chile's monthly indicator of economic activity (IMACEC) contains about the final GDP, defined as the growth rate that has been subject to at...
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Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence: An Overview
October 18, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The last financial crisis revealed that financial imperfections and institutions play a more important role than the literature has assigned them for a long time, and it is possible to ascertain...
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The Great Recession And The Great Depression: Reflections And Lessons
September 28, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The Great Recession that started in 2008 has drawn constant comparisons with the Great Depression that unfolded in 1929. This paper documents how the response of policy makers in the current...
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The Financial Accelerator Under Learning And The Role Of Monetary Policy
August 18, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Financial frictions have been shown to play an important role amplifying business cycles fluctuations. In this paper, the authors show that the financial accelerator mechanism, analyzed by...
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Nowcasting With Google Trends In An Emerging Market
July 28, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Most economic variables are released with a lag, making it difficult for policy-makers to make an accurate assessment of current conditions. This paper explores whether observing Internet browsing...
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Recessions And Financial Disruptions In Emerging Markets: A Bird´s Eye View
June 30, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper provides an overview of the implications of recession and financial disruption episodes in emerging markets. The authors report three major findings. First, compared to advanced...
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Firm Dynamics And Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Does Trade Openness Matter? Evidence From Mexico´s Manufacturing Sector
June 22, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors study the effect of NAFTA on the responsiveness of the Mexican economy to real exchange rate shocks. They argue that, by opening the U.S. and Canadian markets to Mexican...
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Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine "Good" Monetary Policy
May 25, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Slow moving demographics are aging populations around the world and pushing many countries into an extended period of heightened fiscal stress. In some countries, taxes alone cannot or likely will...
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The Credit Channel And Monetary Transmission In Brazil And Chile: A Structural VAR Approach
May 25, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors use an expectation-augmented SVAR representation of an open economy New Keynesian model to study monetary transmission in Brazil and Chile. The underlying structural model incorporates...
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Competition And Stability In Banking
May 10, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The author reviews the state of the art of the academic theoretical and empirical literature on the potential trade-off between competition and stability in banking. There are two basic channels...
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The Global Financial Crisis
May 10, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Until Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy in September 2008, the conventional wisdom was that the crisis was the result of problems in the financial sector. However, after the dramatic falls in industrial...
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On The Quantitative Effects Of Unconventional Monetary Policies
April 21, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper quantitatively evaluates the effects of several unconventional monetary policies. In particular, a new Keynesian model of a small-open economy is extended to include a liquidity...
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Forward Premium Puzzle And Term Structure Of Interest Rates: The Case Of New Zealand
April 13, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Using monthly data for the United States dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate, this paper revisits the forward premium puzzle and applies a discrete no-arbitrage affine model of the term...
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Distress Dependence And Financial Stability
April 13, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper defines a set of systemic financial stability indicators which measure distress dependence among the financial institutions in a system, thereby allowing to analyze stability from three...
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An Assignment Model With Match Specific Productivity
March 16, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the author develops a dynamic assignment model where matches are subjected to persistent idiosyncratic shocks. The model nests two independent models commonly used in the matching...
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A Real Time Evaluation Of The Central Bank Of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts
May 14, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors evaluate the Central Bank of Chile annual GDP growth forecasts over the period 1991-2009 using a real-time database. They compare the Central Bank of Chile forecasts...
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Financial Stability, Monetary Policy And Central Banking: An Overview
February 23, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper summarizes the works presented at the twelfth Annual Conference at the Central Bank of Chile entitled "Financial Stability, Monetary Policy and Central Banking", held in November 2008...
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Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application To Chile
February 23, 2010, 12:00am PST
This paper presents a model for the financial sector's vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework commonly used in monetary policymaking. The main question to answer with the...
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Defining Financial Stability And A Framework For Safeguarding It
April 28, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Financial stability is as important a policy objective as maintaining monetary stability if economic growth and stability are to be achieved and sustained. A prerequisite for more effective...
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Towards An Operational Framework For Financial Stability: "Fuzzy" Measurement And Its Consequences
January 28, 2010, 12:00am PST
Over the last decade or so, addressing financial instability has become a policy priority. Despite the efforts made, policymakers are still a long way from developing a satisfactory operational...
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A Network Model Of Super-Systemic Crises
January 28, 2010, 12:00am PST
Although the financial systems of advanced countries have weathered numerous shocks in recent years, the events triggered by the sub-prime crisis of August 2007 have been "Super-systemic" in...
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The Balance Sheet Channel
January 4, 2010, 12:00am PST
In this paper, the authors study the role of the credit channel of monetary policy in the context of a DSGE model. Through the use of a regulated banking sector subject to a regulatory capital...
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Bank Credit And The 2008 Financial Crisis: A Cross-country Comparison
December 17, 2009, 12:00am PST
The purpose of this paper is to empirically study the macroeconomic, structural and banking determinants of bank credit growth in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Using standard...
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A Simple Global Perspective On The US Slowdown, Boom-bust Cycles And The Rise Of Protectionism
October 6, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The global economy has experienced several significant developments during the recent years: the rising role of giant Asian economies in international trade; the 2008 financial crisis and the...
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Communicational Bias In Monetary Policy: Can Words Forecast Deeds?
October 2, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Communication with the public is an ever-growing practice among central banks and complements their decisions of interest rate setting. In this paper, the authors examine one feature of the...
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Corporate Tax, Firm Destruction And Capital Stock Accumulation: Evidence From Chilean Plants, 1979-2004
August 18, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The authors investigate the impact of corporate taxation on capital stock. In the paper, they indicate that corporate taxation might not only distort the decision of each firm to invest but could...
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Optimal Taxation With Heterogeneous Firms
June 24, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The authors study steady state optimal taxation in a context where firms differ in productivity and they decide whether to produce or not after comparing after-tax profits vis-à-vis an outside...
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A Systemic Approach To Money Demand Modeling
February 6, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper uses a consumer theory-based systemic approach to model the demand for monetary liquid asset holdings. The authors implement the suggestions and caveats of aggregation theory for the...
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Overoptimism, Boom-bust Cycles, And Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies
January 22, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes boom-bust cycles in emerging market economies triggered by miss-perception about future productivity. Using a small open economy DSGE model, the authors show that...
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Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia
June 1, 2006, 12:00am PDT
Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained...
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Price Stability And Financial Stability: Some Thoughts On The Current Global Financial Crisis
November 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The current global financial crisis has prompted significant debate around the proper management of monetary policy and its role in preventing financial crises. This management becomes...
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Openness Can Be Good For Growth: The Role Of Policy Complementarities
August 23, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies how the effect of trade openness on economic growth depends on complementary reforms that help a country take advantage of international competition. This issue is illustrated...
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White Papers
Real Dollarization, Financial Dollarization, And Monetary Policy
October 23, 2006, 12:00am PDT
This paper explores the interaction of real dollarization (dollar indexing of wages), financial dollarization (dollar denomination of financial contracts) and monetary policy in a general...
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White Papers
Economic Growth In Latin America: From The Disappointment Of The Twentieth Century To The Challenges Of The Twenty-first
November 20, 2006, 12:00am PST
Latin America has been dominated by growth expansions that, more often than not, have ended in crises and protracted periods of stagnation. This has led to poor growth performance during most of...
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Conditional Evaluation Of Exchange Rate Predictive Ability In Long Run Regressions
February 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
In this paper, the authors evaluate exchange rate predictability using a new framework developed by Giacomini and White (2004). In this new framework, they test for conditional predictive ability...
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Speculative Currency Attacks: Role Of Inconsistent Macroeconomic Policies And Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation
February 1, 2007, 12:00am PST
This paper provides a critical analysis of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) (KR), perhaps the most prominent empirical paper on causes of currency crises. After dealing with problems present in this...
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Financial Integration Without The Volatility
December 28, 2006, 12:00am PST
Integration to international capital markets is one of the key pillars of development. However, capital flows also bring volatility to emerging markets. Are there mechanisms to reap the benefits...
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Distribution Of Assets, Debt, And Income Of Chilean Households
February 27, 2007, 12:00am PST
This paper summarizes the main results from the latest household panel survey (Social Protection Survey 2004/05 about the distribution of assets, debt and income across Chilean households. Several...
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Convergence And Long Run Uncertainty
January 11, 2007, 12:00am PST
In this paper the neoclassical convergence hypothesis is tested for the thirteen regions of Chile using cross-section and time-series techniques. Cross-section analysis in combination with a...
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The "Great Moderation" And The Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Chile
January 11, 2007, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes the significant reduction in the volatility of output growth and inflation seen in the Chilean economy in the present decade. This reduced volatility, sometimes called the...
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The Backus-smith Puzzle: The Role Of Expectations
January 29, 2007, 12:00am PST
Efficient risk-sharing dictates a positive relationship between the real exchange rate and relative consumption across countries: consumption should be relatively high where consumption is...
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The China Phenomenon: Price, Quality Or Variety?
February 6, 2007, 12:00am PST
China's exports have skyrocketed in the last 15 years. The authors use highly-disaggregated import data from Chile between 1990 and 2005 to decompose the causes of such export performance. They...
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Multinationals As Stabilizers?: Economic Crisis And Plant Employment Growth
March 20, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the link between multinational enterprises and employment growth at the plant-level. The authors investigate in detail the comparative response of multinationals and domestic...
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Capital Regulation And Bank Risk Taking: Completing Blum's Picture
April 13, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies the intertemporal effects that capital regulation has on curbing bank risk taking, using the seminal model proposed in Blum (1999). Threshold values of the requirement in each...
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Measuring TFP: A Latent Variable Approach
June 4, 2007, 12:00am PDT
Despite the important role that Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has played in growth literature, few attempts have been made to change the methodology to estimate it. This paper proposes a...
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Intermediate Goods, Institutions And Output Per Worker
June 14, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper tests a specific channel through which institutions affect output per capita: the role of institutions in firm-level division of production. The authors argue that weaker institutions...
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White Papers
Welfare Implications Of A Second Lender In The International Markets
July 23, 2007, 12:00am PDT
The role of an extra lender in the international markets - such the IMF or another similar institution - has been widely covered in academic discussions and among policy makers. However, there is...
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Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops And Sudden Starts
January 22, 2008, 12:00am PST
The recent literature on sudden stops is based on the fact that many emerging market economies experience recurrent and sharp capital account reversals. In this paper, the authors argue, as some...
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Multinational Firms And Productivity Catching-Up: The Case Of Chilean Manufacturing
October 12, 2007, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors study Total Factor Productivity (TFP) catching-up using 20 years of plant-level data for Chilean manufacturing. The paper addresses two key issues: First, they analyze...
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Current Account And External Financing: An Introduction
January 9, 2008, 12:00am PST
This paper takes stock of the recent literature on current account and external financing and presents new analytical results and empirical research on the subject. Four key areas of related...
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White Papers
Stocks, Flows And Valuation Effects Of Foreign Assets And Liabilities: Do They Matter?
January 9, 2008, 12:00am PST
Large holdings of foreign assets and liabilities, along with increasing relevance of valuation effects - capital gains or losses - have characterized global financial integration. In this paper,...
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White Papers
Financial Frections And Business Cycles In Middle Income Countries
January 16, 2008, 12:00am PST
Standard DSGE small open economy models can not generate the cyclical properties of Middle-Income Countries (MICs). These models, compared to the data, predict excessive consumption smoothing, low...
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The Role Of Interest Rates And Productivity Shocks In Emerging Market Fluctuations
January 16, 2008, 12:00am PST
In this paper, the authors use a quantitative model to explore the potential frictions that distinguish emerging market business cycles from developed small open economies. Following Aguiar and...
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White Papers
Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules And The Achievement Of The Inflation Target: The Case Of Chile
January 24, 2008, 12:00am PST
The purpose of this paper is to test empirically whether the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) has a monetary policy reaction that changes depending on the actual state of the economy. For that, the...
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Is Ownership Structure A Determinant Of Bank Efficiency?
January 23, 2008, 12:00am PST
When owners could easily sell a company if it is not performing well enough provide additional incentive to the administration to act in the best interest of the stockholders, since in the merger...
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The Chilean Business Cycles Through The Lens Of A Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
February 8, 2008, 12:00am PST
This paper uses an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Chile. The results show that...
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Combining Tests Of Predictive Ability Theory And Evidence For Chilean And Canadian Exchange Rates
April 4, 2008, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors focus on combining out-of-sample test statistics of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) to explore whether a new combined statistic may induce a test with higher...
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Exploring The Relationship Between R&D And Productivity: A Country-level Study
June 3, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Research and Development (R&D) has been considered a source of growth in productivity starting from Schultz (1953). Since then, significant research has studied this relationship at the firm,...
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Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard And The Risk Of Runs
June 26, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The effectiveness of deposit insurance in eliminating panic runs varies with the size of coverage and the degree of supervisory involvement of the agency in charge of insurance. When the agency is...
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White Papers
What Drives The Choice Of Money-based Targets In The World?
August 26, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Money Targeting (MT) was a highly popular monetary regime among central banks in both industrial and developing countries during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper presents a comprehensive empirical...
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Openness And Growth Volatility
April 17, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Macroeconomic volatility is the outcome of countries' exposure to shocks (the magnitude and frequency of shocks that hit their economies) and their vulnerability (the ability to respond to these...
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The Choice Of Fiscal Regimes In The World
September 29, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Fiscal policy regimes are increasingly adopted by governments that aim at contributing to stabilize business cycles and make public finances more resilient to political pressure. This paper...
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White Papers
Sources Of Uncertainty For Conducting Monetary Policy In Chile
October 8, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the quantitative relevance of additive, multiplicative and data uncertainty in the implementation of Chile's monetary policy. For the analysis of data uncertainty, the authors...
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A Sticky-information General Equilibrium Model For Policy Analysis
October 8, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a single friction in all markets: sticky information. In this economy, agents are inattentive because of the high cost of...
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White Papers
Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
October 30, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation and uncertainty...
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Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research
October 30, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the...
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Chile's Growth And Development: Leadership, Policy-making Process, Policies, And Results
January 22, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes the relations between leadership, the policy-making process, policies and institutions, and development results in Chile. It starts with a stylized model for the dynamics of...
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Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty And Learning: An Overview
January 22, 2009, 12:00am PST
Central banks must make policy decisions in the face of uncertainty based on imperfect and evolving knowledge about the economy. While few general results have emerged from the research on...
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White Papers
Overoptimism, Boom-bust Cycles, And Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies
January 22, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes boom-bust cycles in emerging market economies triggered by miss-perception about future productivity. Using a small open economy DSGE model, the authors show that...
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