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Central Bank of Chile
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Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty And Learning: An Overview
January 22, 2009, 12:00am PST
Central banks must make policy decisions in the face of uncertainty based on imperfect and evolving knowledge about the economy. While few general results have emerged from the research on...
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Chile's Growth And Development: Leadership, Policy-making Process, Policies, And Results
January 22, 2009, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes the relations between leadership, the policy-making process, policies and institutions, and development results in Chile. It starts with a stylized model for the dynamics of...
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Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research
October 30, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the...
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Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
October 30, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation and uncertainty...
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A Sticky-information General Equilibrium Model For Policy Analysis
October 8, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a single friction in all markets: sticky information. In this economy, agents are inattentive because of the high cost of...
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Sources Of Uncertainty For Conducting Monetary Policy In Chile
October 8, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the quantitative relevance of additive, multiplicative and data uncertainty in the implementation of Chile's monetary policy. For the analysis of data uncertainty, the authors...
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The Choice Of Fiscal Regimes In The World
September 29, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Fiscal policy regimes are increasingly adopted by governments that aim at contributing to stabilize business cycles and make public finances more resilient to political pressure. This paper...
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Openness And Growth Volatility
April 17, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Macroeconomic volatility is the outcome of countries' exposure to shocks (the magnitude and frequency of shocks that hit their economies) and their vulnerability (the ability to respond to these...
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What Drives The Choice Of Money-based Targets In The World?
August 26, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Money Targeting (MT) was a highly popular monetary regime among central banks in both industrial and developing countries during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper presents a comprehensive empirical...
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Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard And The Risk Of Runs
June 26, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The effectiveness of deposit insurance in eliminating panic runs varies with the size of coverage and the degree of supervisory involvement of the agency in charge of insurance. When the agency is...
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Exploring The Relationship Between R&D And Productivity: A Country-level Study
June 3, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Research and Development (R&D) has been considered a source of growth in productivity starting from Schultz (1953). Since then, significant research has studied this relationship at the firm,...
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Combining Tests Of Predictive Ability Theory And Evidence For Chilean And Canadian Exchange Rates
April 4, 2008, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors focus on combining out-of-sample test statistics of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) to explore whether a new combined statistic may induce a test with higher...
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The Chilean Business Cycles Through The Lens Of A Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
February 8, 2008, 12:00am PST
This paper uses an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Chile. The results show that...
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Is Ownership Structure A Determinant Of Bank Efficiency?
January 23, 2008, 12:00am PST
When owners could easily sell a company if it is not performing well enough provide additional incentive to the administration to act in the best interest of the stockholders, since in the merger...
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Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules And The Achievement Of The Inflation Target: The Case Of Chile
January 24, 2008, 12:00am PST
The purpose of this paper is to test empirically whether the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) has a monetary policy reaction that changes depending on the actual state of the economy. For that, the...
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The Role Of Interest Rates And Productivity Shocks In Emerging Market Fluctuations
January 16, 2008, 12:00am PST
In this paper, the authors use a quantitative model to explore the potential frictions that distinguish emerging market business cycles from developed small open economies. Following Aguiar and...
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Financial Frections And Business Cycles In Middle Income Countries
January 16, 2008, 12:00am PST
Standard DSGE small open economy models can not generate the cyclical properties of Middle-Income Countries (MICs). These models, compared to the data, predict excessive consumption smoothing, low...
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Stocks, Flows And Valuation Effects Of Foreign Assets And Liabilities: Do They Matter?
January 9, 2008, 12:00am PST
Large holdings of foreign assets and liabilities, along with increasing relevance of valuation effects - capital gains or losses - have characterized global financial integration. In this paper,...
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Current Account And External Financing: An Introduction
January 9, 2008, 12:00am PST
This paper takes stock of the recent literature on current account and external financing and presents new analytical results and empirical research on the subject. Four key areas of related...
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Multinational Firms And Productivity Catching-Up: The Case Of Chilean Manufacturing
October 12, 2007, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors study Total Factor Productivity (TFP) catching-up using 20 years of plant-level data for Chilean manufacturing. The paper addresses two key issues: First, they analyze...
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Financial Diversification, Sudden Stops And Sudden Starts
January 22, 2008, 12:00am PST
The recent literature on sudden stops is based on the fact that many emerging market economies experience recurrent and sharp capital account reversals. In this paper, the authors argue, as some...
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Welfare Implications Of A Second Lender In The International Markets
July 23, 2007, 12:00am PDT
The role of an extra lender in the international markets - such the IMF or another similar institution - has been widely covered in academic discussions and among policy makers. However, there is...
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Intermediate Goods, Institutions And Output Per Worker
June 14, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper tests a specific channel through which institutions affect output per capita: the role of institutions in firm-level division of production. The authors argue that weaker institutions...
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Measuring TFP: A Latent Variable Approach
June 4, 2007, 12:00am PDT
Despite the important role that Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has played in growth literature, few attempts have been made to change the methodology to estimate it. This paper proposes a...
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Price Stability And Financial Stability: Some Thoughts On The Current Global Financial Crisis
November 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The current global financial crisis has prompted significant debate around the proper management of monetary policy and its role in preventing financial crises. This management becomes...
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Distress Dependence And Financial Stability
April 13, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper defines a set of systemic financial stability indicators which measure distress dependence among the financial institutions in a system, thereby allowing to analyze stability from three...
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Forward Premium Puzzle And Term Structure Of Interest Rates: The Case Of New Zealand
April 13, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Using monthly data for the United States dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate, this paper revisits the forward premium puzzle and applies a discrete no-arbitrage affine model of the term...
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On The Quantitative Effects Of Unconventional Monetary Policies
April 21, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper quantitatively evaluates the effects of several unconventional monetary policies. In particular, a new Keynesian model of a small-open economy is extended to include a liquidity...
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The Global Financial Crisis
May 10, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Until Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy in September 2008, the conventional wisdom was that the crisis was the result of problems in the financial sector. However, after the dramatic falls in industrial...
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Competition And Stability In Banking
May 10, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The author reviews the state of the art of the academic theoretical and empirical literature on the potential trade-off between competition and stability in banking. There are two basic channels...
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The Credit Channel And Monetary Transmission In Brazil And Chile: A Structural VAR Approach
May 25, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors use an expectation-augmented SVAR representation of an open economy New Keynesian model to study monetary transmission in Brazil and Chile. The underlying structural model incorporates...
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Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine "Good" Monetary Policy
May 25, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Slow moving demographics are aging populations around the world and pushing many countries into an extended period of heightened fiscal stress. In some countries, taxes alone cannot or likely will...
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Firm Dynamics And Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Does Trade Openness Matter? Evidence From Mexico´s Manufacturing Sector
June 22, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors study the effect of NAFTA on the responsiveness of the Mexican economy to real exchange rate shocks. They argue that, by opening the U.S. and Canadian markets to Mexican...
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Recessions And Financial Disruptions In Emerging Markets: A Bird´s Eye View
June 30, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper provides an overview of the implications of recession and financial disruption episodes in emerging markets. The authors report three major findings. First, compared to advanced...
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Nowcasting With Google Trends In An Emerging Market
July 28, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Most economic variables are released with a lag, making it difficult for policy-makers to make an accurate assessment of current conditions. This paper explores whether observing Internet browsing...
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The Financial Accelerator Under Learning And The Role Of Monetary Policy
August 18, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Financial frictions have been shown to play an important role amplifying business cycles fluctuations. In this paper, the authors show that the financial accelerator mechanism, analyzed by...
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The Great Recession And The Great Depression: Reflections And Lessons
September 28, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The Great Recession that started in 2008 has drawn constant comparisons with the Great Depression that unfolded in 1929. This paper documents how the response of policy makers in the current...
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Monetary Policy Under Financial Turbulence: An Overview
October 18, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The last financial crisis revealed that financial imperfections and institutions play a more important role than the literature has assigned them for a long time, and it is possible to ascertain...
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Extracting GDP Signals From The Monthly Indicator Of Economic Activity: Evidence From Chilean Real-time Data
October 25, 2010, 12:00am PDT
With real-time data it is analyzed what information Chile's monthly indicator of economic activity (IMACEC) contains about the final GDP, defined as the growth rate that has been subject to at...
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A Solution To Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered By Chile
January 14, 2011, 12:00am PST
Historically, many countries have suffered a pattern of procyclical fiscal policy: spending too much in booms and then forced to cut back in recessions, thereby exacerbating the business cycle....
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A Bunch Of Models, A Bunch Of Nulls And Inference About Predictive Ability
February 7, 2011, 12:00am PST
Inference about predictive ability is usually carried out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two competing forecasting methods. Nevertheless, some interesting questions are concerned with...
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Riding The Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies Of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters In Latin America And The Caribbean
February 11, 2011, 12:00am PST
This paper analyzes recent fiscal policies of nonrenewable resource exporting countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in the context of sharp swings in resource prices. Fiscal policies were...
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Tightening Tensions: Fiscal Policy And Civil Unrest In Eleven South American Countries, 1937 - 1995
February 11, 2011, 12:00am PST
Efforts at fiscal consolidation are often limited because of concerns over potential social unrest. From German austerity measures during the 1930s to the violent demonstrations in Greece in 2010,...
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The Optimal Inflation Tax In The Presence Of Imperfect Deposit - Currency Substitution
March 22, 2011, 12:00am PDT
During the last decades, technological innovation has generated a major transformation in payment systems, stimulating a widespread use of different forms of electronic money and increasing...
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Taxes And The Labor Market
May 16, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors estimate the effect of exogenous changes in taxes on the US unemployment rate and on several other labor market variables. The estimates are based on a revised version of the Romer and...
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Procyclicality Of Fiscal Policy In Emerging Countries: The Cycle Is The Trend
May 13, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses the Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) methodology in order to estimate whether "The cycle is the trend" in 23 emerging markets and 22 OECD economies. These estimates are then used to test...
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Introducing Financial Assets Into Structural Models
May 13, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews extensively the literature on asset pricing and builds a structural dynamic general equilibrium model with financial assets. The authors obtain the policy function of the...
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Short-Term GDP Forecasting Using Bridge Models: A Case For Chile
May 13, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The aim of this paper is to provide a forecasting tool that facilitates understanding economic developments in a timely manner. This is pursued through the Bridge Model approach by using it to...
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Chile's Fiscal Rule As Social Insurance
May 13, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors explore the role of fiscal policy over the business cycle from a normative perspective, for a government with a highly volatile and exogenous revenue source. Instead of resorting to...
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Fiscal Multipliers And Policy Coordination
May 20, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of fiscal policy at zero nominal interest rates. The author solves a stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices assuming that the government...
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