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European Central Bank
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Short-Term Forecasting Of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise
April 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with...
Provided by European Central Bank
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The Changing Role Of The Exchange Rate In A Globalised Economy
September 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
In addition to its direct effects on the global trading and production structure, the ongoing process of globalisation may have important implications for the interaction of exchange rates and the...
Provided by European Central Bank
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The Impact Of The Global Economic And Financial Crisis On Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe A Stock-Taking Exercise
June 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The paper first reviews the main drivers of the growth and real convergence process in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) since 2000 and assesses the key macro-financial strengths...
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The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Economic Structures, Recent Developments And Role In The Global Economy
July 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
In the wake of high and rising oil prices since 2003, the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have seen dynamic economic development, enhancing their role in the global economy as...
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The Impact Of Sovereign Wealth Funds On Global Financial Markets
July 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyses the impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) on global financial markets. It presents back-of-the-envelope calculations which simulate the potential impact of a transfer of...
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Wage Growth Dispersion Across The Euro Area Countries Some Stylised Facts
July 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper presents some stylised facts on wage growth differentials across the euro area countries in the years before and in the first eight years after the introduction of Economic and Monetary...
Provided by European Central Bank
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China's And India's Roles In Global Trade And Finance Twin Titans For The New Millennium?
January 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
This paper analyses the integration of China and India into the global economy. To this end, it presents estimates from a gravity model to gauge the overall degree of their trade intensity and the...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Cross-Border Banking And The International Transmission Of Financial Distress During The Financial Crisis Of 2007-2008
January 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
The authors study the effect of financial distress in foreign parent banks on local SME financing in 14 European countries during the early stages of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. They use...
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The Basel III Framework For Liquidity Standards And Monetary Policy Implementation
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Basel III introduces for the first time an international framework for liquidity risk regulation, reflecting the experience of excessive liquidity risk taking of banks in the run up to the...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Capital Flows, Push Versus Pull Factors And The Global Financial Crisis
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The causes of the 2008 collapse and subsequent surge in global capital flows remain an open and highly controversial issue. Employing a factor model coupled with a dataset of high-frequency...
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Systemic Risk And Financial Development In A Monetary Model
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
In a stochastic pure endowment economy with money but no financial markets, two types of agents trade one non-durable goods using two alternative types of cash constraints. Simulations of the...
Provided by European Central Bank
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White Papers
Cross-Border Banking And The International Transmission Of Financial Distress
October 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The authors study the effect of financial distress in foreign parent banks on local SME financing in 14 European countries during the early stages of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The available...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Financial Development And The Growth-Volatility Tradeo : International Evidence
February 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
The authors study how financial development affects the economy's growth-volatility profile in a large cross-section of countries. They construct a benchmark industrial composition as the set of...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Real-time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real-time data. This paper can be broadly divided in three groups that focus on: the statistical properties of...
Provided by European Central Bank
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The Stabilizing Effects Of Risk-Sensitive Bank Capital
February 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
The aim of the present paper is to assess the pro-cyclical impact of risk-sensitive bank capital. The authors develop a theoretical model where banks may apply two capital management rules: either...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Business Cycle Dynamics Under Rational Inattention
April 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rational inattention by households and firms. Consumption responds slowly to interest rate changes because households decide...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Central Bank Communication On Financial Stability
April 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Central banks regularly communicate about financial stability issues, by publishing Financial Stability Reports (FSRs) and through speeches and interviews. The paper asks how such communications...
Provided by European Central Bank
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A Monetary Policy Strategy In Good And Bad Times: Lessons From The Recent Past
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors evaluate the ECB's monetary policy strategy against the underlying economic structure of the euro area economy, in normal times and in times of severe financial dislocations. They show...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Who Invests In Home Equity To Exempt Wealth From Bankruptcy?
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Homestead exemptions to personal bankruptcy allow households to retain their home equity up to a limit determined at the state level. Households that may experience bankruptcy thus have an...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Financial Frictions And Optimal Monetary Policy In An Open Economy
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
A growing number of papers have studied positive and normative implications of financial frictions in DSGE models. The authors contribute to this literature by studying the welfare-based monetary...
Provided by European Central Bank
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How Wages Respond To Shocks: Asymmetry In The Speed Of Adjustment
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The time series of various economic variables often exhibit asymmetry: decreases in the values tend to be sharp and fast, whereas increases usually occur slowly and gradually. The authors detect...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Exact Likelihood Computation For Nonlinear DSGE Models With Heteroskedastic Innovations
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Phenomena such as the Great Moderation have increased the attention of macro-economists towards models where shock processes are not (log-) normal. This paper studies a class of discrete-time...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Fiscal Data Revisions In Europe
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Public deficit figures are subject to revisions, as most macroeconomic aggregates are. Nevertheless, in the case of Europe, the latter could be particularly worrisome given the role of fiscal data...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Have Euro Area And EU Economic Governance Worked? Just The Facts
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors test whether two key elements of the EU and euro area economic governance framework, the Stability and Growth Pact and the Lisbon Strategy, have had any impact on macroeconomic...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Systemic Risk-Taking: Amplification Effects, Externalities, And Regulatory Responses
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the efficiency of risk-taking decisions in an economy that is prone to systemic risk, captured by financial amplification effects that occur in response to strong adverse...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Do Financial Investors Destabilize The Oil Price?
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors assess whether and to what extent financial activity in the oil futures markets has contributed to destabilize oil prices in recent years. They define a destabilizing...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Theoretical Notes On Bubbles And The Current Crisis
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. They embed this view in a standard model of...
Provided by European Central Bank
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Inflation Models, Optimal Monetary Policy And Uncertain Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence From The US And The Euro Area
April 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper explores the role that model uncertainty plays in determining the effect of monetary policy shocks on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. The authors specify a range of...
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Non? Standard Monetary Policy Measures And Monetary Developments
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Standard accounts of the Great Depression (notably the seminal offering of Friedman and Schwartz, 1963) attribute an important causal role to monetary policy errors in accounting for the...
Provided by European Central Bank
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White Papers
Monetary Policy Strategy In A Global Environment
March 1, 2009, 12:00am PST
Since the mid-1980s the world economy has gone through profound transformations of which the sources and effects are probably not yet completely understood. The process of continuous integration...
Provided by European Central Bank
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