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International Monetary Fund
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Competitiveness In The CFA Franc Zone
August 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews the evolution of competitiveness in the CFA franc zone using a proposed comprehensive competitiveness framework. In particular, the authors examine competitiveness in the WAEMU...
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Protection For Free? The Political Economy Of U.S. Tariff Suspensions
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies the political influence of individual firms on Congressional decisions to suspend tariffs on U.S. imports of intermediate goods. The authors develop a model in which firms...
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Mother, Can I trust The Government? Sustained Financial Deepening - A Political Institutions View
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Only a minority of countries have succeeded in establishing a developed financial system, despite widespread financial liberalization. Confronted with this finding, the "political institutions...
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Bank Capital And Uncertainty
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital....
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Investment-Specific Technology Shocks And International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks to an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of...
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Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility And Decrease Leverage?
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This...
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The End Of An Era? The Medium And Long-Term Effects Of The Global Crisis On Growth
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response...
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Information Content Of DQAF Indicators - Empirical Entropy Analysis
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The study presents an analysis of the information content of IMF's Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) indicators. There are significant differences in the quantity of information between...
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Data Dissemination Standards And The Statistical Quality Of The IMF?s World Economic Outlook Forecasts
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the effects of IMF member countries participation in the IMF's Data Standards Initiatives (DSI) on the statistical quality of WEO forecasts. Results show that WEO forecasts for...
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The Unequal Benefits Of Fuel Subsidies: A Review Of Evidence For Developing Countries
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews evidence on the impact of fuel subsidy reform on household welfare in developing countries. On average, the burden of subsidy reform is neutrally distributed across income...
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The Effects Of The Global Crisis On Islamic And Conventional Banks: A Comparative Study
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the performance of Islamic banks (IBs) and conventional banks (CBs) during the recent global crisis by looking at the impact of the crisis on profitability, credit and asset...
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Optimal Price Indices For Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. The authors develop a two-sector two-good...
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To Starve Or Not To Starve The Beast?
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
For thirty years prominent voices have advocated a policy of "starving the beast" - cutting taxes to force government spending cuts. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare consequences...
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Sustainable Real Exchange Rates In The New EU Member States: What Did The Great Recession Change?
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in the sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on the estimates of real...
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Estimates Of The Output Gap In Armenia With Applications To Monetary And Fiscal Policy
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased...
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Can Global Liquidity Forecast Asset Prices?
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
During the period leading up to the global financial crisis many asset classes registered rapid price increases. This coincided with a significant rise in global liquidity. This paper attempts to...
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Islamic Banking: How Has It Diffused?
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates the determinants of the pattern of Islamic bank diffusion around the world using country-level data for 1992 - 2006. The analysis illustrates that income per capita, share...
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Measuring Financial Barriers Among East African Community Countries
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper seeks to quantify existing financial barriers among East African Community (EAC) member countries based on analysis of each member country's foreign exchange market. The primary...
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The Effectiveness Of Macroeconomic Commitment In Weak(er) Institutional Environments
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the institutional conditions affecting the establishment and effectiveness of independent central banks and of budgetary institutions. It draws on the recent theory developed...
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The Dynamic Effects Of Commodity Prices On Fiscal Performance In Latin America
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries' fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data...
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A Macro Model Of The Credit Channel In A Currency Union Member: The Case Of Benin
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper applies and extends a theoretical model built by Agenor and Montiel (2007) by exploring the effectiveness of government bonds and monetary policy in a small, open, credit-based economy...
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Price Of Risk - Recent Evidence From Large Financials
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Probability of default (PD) measures have been widely used in estimating potential losses of, and contagion among, large financial institutions. In a period of financial stress however, the...
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Still Minding The Gap - Inflation Dynamics Duiing Episodes Of Persistent Large Output Gaps
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. The authors find that such episodes...
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Dedollarization
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper provides a summary of the key policies that encourage dedollarization. It focuses on cases in which the authorities' intention is to gain greater control of monetary policy and draws on...
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Output And Unemployment Dynamics During The Great Recession: A Panel Unobserved Components Analysis
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession. This analysis is based on a panel unobserved components model of the world...
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Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, And Sovereign Bond Yields
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that...
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A Monetary Policy Model Without Money For India
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
A New Keynesian model estimated for India yields valuable insights. Aggregate demand reacts to interest rate changes with a lag of at least three quarters, with inflation taking seven quarters to...
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Is Exchange Rate Stabilization An Appropriate Cure For The Dutch Disease?
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper evaluates how successful is a policy of exchange rate stabilization to counteract the negative effects of a Dutch Disease episode. The authors consider a small open economy model that...
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A New Framework To Estimate The Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded In Options Prices
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs)...
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Resource Windfalls And Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: The Role Of Political Institutions
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 30 emerging market economies during the period...
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Consensus Forecasts And Inefficient Information Aggregation
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information...
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Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe's Public Finances
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Traditional fiscal indicators focused on measures of current deficits and debt miss the potentially important implications of current policies for future public finances. This could be...
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Sudden Stops, Output Drops, And Credit Collapses
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper proposes a tractable Sudden Stop model to explain the main patterns in firm level data in a sample of Southeast Asian firms during the Asian crisis. The model, which features trend...
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Public Capital And Growth
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper revisits the debate on the effect of public investment on growth by estimating a production function for forty-eight OECD and non-OECD countries, using capital stock as the explanatory...
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Public Debt And Growth
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a...
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Democracy And Reforms: Evidence From A New Dataset
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Empirical evidence on the relationship between democracy and economic reforms is limited to few reforms, countries, and years. This paper studies the impact of democracy on the adoption of...
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The (Sizable) Role Of Rehypothecation In The Shadow Banking System
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the sizable role of rehypothecation in the shadow banking system. Rehypothecation is the practice that allows collateral posted by, say, a hedge fund to its prime broker to be...
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The Cross-Country Incidence Of The Global Crisis
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-2009 global recession is systematically related to pre-crisis macroeconomic and financial factors. They find that...
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Peru: Drivers Of De-dollarization
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Peru has successfully pursued a market-driven financial de-dollarization during the last decade. Dollarization of credit and deposit of commercial banks - across all sectors and maturities - has...
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Does Procyclical Fiscal Policy Reinforce Incentives To Dollarize Sovereign Debt?
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper explores the link between the cyclical patterns of macroeconomic and policy variables and the currency composition of domestic sovereign debt in emerging market countries. The empirical...
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Do Oil-Rich GCC Countries Finance US Current Account Deficit
February 11, 2008, 12:00am PST
Given the secrecy that wraps the flows of the GCC countries' petrodollar surpluses to the United States and the pressures on these countries to spend and recycle more, this paper attempts to...
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Lessons From The Financial Crisis On Modelling Systemic And Sovereign Risk
December 14, 2010, 12:00am PST
The complex interactions, spillovers and feedbacks of the global crisis that began in 2007 remind us how important it is to improve the authors' analyzes and modelling of financial crises and...
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Lifting Euro Area Growth: Priorities For Structural Reforms And Governance
November 22, 2010, 12:00am PST
To live up to its growth potential and secure its inclusive social model, the euro area must make better use of its available labor. In the aftermath of the crisis, boosting growth is essential to...
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Precautionary Savings And Global Imbalances In World General Equilibrium
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China,...
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The Role Of Monetary Policy In Turkey During The Global Financial Crisis
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first...
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Impact Of The Global Crisis On Banking Sector Soundness In Asian Low-Income Countries
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The paper takes stock of the impact of the global financial crisis that began in late 2007 on banking sectors of Asian low-income countries, by exploring bank-level data provided by Bankscope. The...
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New Indicators For Tracking Growth In Real Time
February 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
The authors develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. They test the historical performance of the indicators and find that they do a good job at...
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Fiscal Expectations Under The Stability And Growth Pact: Evidence From Survey Data
March 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the...
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ICT, Financial Inclusion, And Growth: Evidence From African Countries
April 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007. Further,...
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Did Export Diversification Soften The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis?
May 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by...
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Bank Lending In Turkey: Effects Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on Turkish banks' lending activities in the post-crisis period. In particular, the authors show that changes in monetary policy have...
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Cyclical Behavior Of Inventories And Growth Projections: Recent Evidence From Europe And The United States
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In the United States and a few European countries, inventory behavior is mainly the outcome of demand shocks: a standard buffer-stock model best characterizes these economies. But most of the...
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Monetary Transmission Of Global Imbalances In Asian Countries
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The paper explores the linkages between the global and domestic monetary gaps, and estimates the effects of monetary gaps on output growth, inflation, and net saving rates using panel data for 20...
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Recent Credit Stagnation In The MENA Region: What To Expect? What Can Be Done?
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the recent credit slowdown among Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries from three analytical angles. First, it finds that, similar to other regions and to its past...
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Macroprudential Regulation Under Repo Funding
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The use of collateral has become one of the most widespread risk mitigation techniques. While it brings stabilizing effects to the individual lender the authors argue that it may exacerbate...
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How Commodity Price Curves And Inventories React To A Short-Run Scarcity Shock
September 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
How does a commodity market adjust to a temporary scarcity shock which causes a shift in the slope of the futures price curve? The authors find long-run relationships between spot and futures...
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Monetary Transmission In Low Income Countries
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews monetary transmission mechanisms in Low-Income Countries (LICs) to identify aspects of the channels that may operate differently in LICs relative to advanced and emerging...
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Nonperforming Loans In The GCC Banking System And their Macroeconomic Effects
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase....
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What Can International Cricket Teach Us About The Role Of Luck In Labor Markets?
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
How important is luck in determining labor market outcomes? The authors address this question using a new dataset of all international test cricketers who debuted between 1950 and 1985. They...
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The Euro's Effect On Trade Imbalances
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
When does trade become a one-way relationship? The authors study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. They find that, with the...
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A Perspective On Predicting Currency Crises
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that the authors are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. The authors...
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Australian Banking System Resilience: What Should Be Expected Looking Forward? An International Perspective
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper reviews Australian banks' performance from an international perspective, with a focus on changes in capital and liquidity risk. The paper analyses the extent of any vulnerability that...
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Government Investment And Fiscal Stimulus
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Effects of government investment are studied in an estimated neoclassical growth model. The analysis focuses on two dimensions that are critical for understanding government investment as a fiscal...
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Financial Frictions, Investment, And Institutions
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Financial frictions have been identified as key factors affecting economic fluctuations and growth. But, can institutional reforms reduce financial frictions? Based on a canonical investment...
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Is Social Spending Procyclical?
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies the cyclical behavior of public spending on health and education in 150 countries during 1987 - 2007. It finds that spending on education and health is procyclical in developing...
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International Capital Flows And Development: Financial Openness Matters
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? The authors revisit the Lucas paradox and explore the role of capital account restrictions in shaping capital flows at various stages of economic...
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Financial Contagion Through Bank Deleveraging: Stylized Facts And Simulations Applied To The Financial Crisis
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The financial crisis has highlighted the importance of various channels of financial contagion across countries. This paper first presents stylized facts of international banking activities during...
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The Impact Of The Great Recession On Emerging Markets
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on Emerging Market Economies (EMs). The cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that...
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Deconstructing The International Business Cycle: Why Does A U.S. Sneeze Give The Rest Of The World A Cold?
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. The authors estimate spillover...
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Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, And Development Aid: New Evidence
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970‒2005. The authors find that bilateral aid flows are on...
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Crisis And Recovery: Role Of The Exchange Rate Regime In Emerging Market Countries
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the role of the exchange rate regime in explaining how emerging market economies fared in the recent global financial crisis, particularly in terms of output losses and growth...
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Monetary And Fiscal Policy Interactions In The Post-war U.S.
November 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
A New Keynesian model allowing for an Active Monetary and Passive Fiscal policy (AMPF) regime and a Passive Monetary and Active Fiscal policy (PMAF) regime is fit to various U.S. samples from 1955...
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After The Crisis: Assessing The Damage In Italy
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Italy's deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these...
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A Historical Public Debt Database
November 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper describes the compilation of the first truly comprehensive database on gross government debt-to-GDP ratios, covering nearly the entire IMF membership (174 countries) and spanning an...
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Structural Breaks In Fiscal Performance: Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything To Do With Them?
November 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still,...
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Asset Prices In Affine Real Business Cycle Models
November 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Recursive preferences and time variation in means and volatilities have become important features of consumption-based asset pricing literature. The introduction of these features into real...
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Assessing The Risk Of Private Sector Debt Overhang In The Baltic Countries
October 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Between 2000 and 2007 nonfinancial private sector credit expanded rapidly in the Baltic countries, resulting in a non-negligible build-up of debt. Could this legacy debt hold back the economic...
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Determinants Of The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium In Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
November 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper analyzes macroeconomic determinants of the foreign exchange risk premium in two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar: Saudi Arabia and...
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Slowdown Of Credit Flows In Jordan In The Wake Of The Global Financial Crisis: Supply Or Demand Driven?
November 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper estimates a disequilibrium model of credit supply and demand to evaluate the relative role of these factors in the slowdown of credit flows in the Jordanian economy in the wake of the...
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Bilateral Financial Linkages And Global Imbalances: A View On The Eve Of The Financial Crisis
November 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors present a novel and comprehensive dataset of bilateral gross and net external positions in various financial instruments for the main advanced and emerging economies and regions,...
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