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National Bureau of Economic Research
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Why Has California's Residential Electricity Consumption Been So Flat Since The 1980s?
May 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors use detailed microeconomic data to investigate why aggregate residential electricity consumption in California has been flat since 1980. Using unique micro data, they document the role...
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Human Resource Management And Productivity
May 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper focuses on labor economics that one examines the relationship between Human Resource Management (HRM) and productivity. HRM includes incentive pay (individual and group) as well as many...
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Bankruptcy Reform And Credit Cards
July 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
From 1980 to 2004, the number of personal bankruptcy filings in the United States increased more than five-fold, from 288,000 to 1.5 million per year. Lenders responded to the high filing rate...
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Unraveling Results From Comparable Demand And Supply: An Experimental Investigation
May 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
Markets sometimes unravel, with offers becoming inefficiently early. Often this is attributed to competition arising from an imbalance of demand and supply, typically excess demand for workers....
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Agency Costs, Mispricing, And Ownership Structure
April 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Standard theories of corporate ownership assume that because markets are efficient, insiders ultimately bear agency costs and therefore have a strong incentive to minimize conflicts of interest...
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Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization And The Synchronization Of Economic Activity
April 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
The authors identify the effect of financial integration on international business cycle synchronization, by utilizing a confidential database on banks' bilateral exposure and employing a...
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Evaluating Conditions In Major Chinese Housing Markets
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
High and rising prices in Chinese housing markets have attracted global attention, as well as the interest of the Chinese government and its regulators. Housing markets look very risky based on...
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The Business Cycle And Health Behaviors
February 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
In this paper, the authors take a structural approach to investigate the effects of wages and working hours on health behaviors of low-educated persons using variation in wages and hours caused by...
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International Business Cycle Synchronization In Historical Perspective
June 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries and the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into...
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Uncertainty And Economic Activity: Evidence From Business Survey Data
June 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, the authors find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in...
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Environmental Concern And The Business Cycle: The Chilling Effect Of Recession
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses three different sources of data to investigate the association between the business cycle - measured with unemployment rates - and environmental concern. Building on recent...
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Measuring What Employers Really Do About Entry Wages Over The Business Cycle
February 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
In models recently published by several influential macroeconomic theorists, rigidity in the real wages that firms pay newly hired workers plays a crucial role in generating realistically large...
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Big Business Stability And Social Welfare
May 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
Many countries appear to have excessively stable big business sectors, in that higher rates of big business turnover have been correlated with faster economy growth. Public policies that stabilize...
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Noisy Business Cycles
May 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates a real-business-cycle economy that features dispersed information about the underlying aggregate productivity shocks, taste shocks, and, potentially, shocks to monopoly...
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Globalization, The Business Cycle, And Macroeconomic Monitoring
August 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
The authors apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, the measure of the global business...
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On The Persistent Financial Losses Of U.S. Airlines: A Preliminary Exploration
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
U.S. airlines have lost nearly $60 billion (2009 dollars) in domestic markets since deregulation, most of it in the last decade. More than 30 years after domestic airline markets were deregulated;...
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Misallocation, Economic Growth, And Input-Output Economics
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
One of the most important developments in the growth literature of the last decade is the enhanced appreciation of the role that the misallocation of resources plays in helping to understand...
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How Financial Literacy And Impatience Shape Retirement Wealth And Investment Behaviors
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
Two competing explanations for why consumers have trouble with financial decisions are gaining momentum. One is that people are financially illiterate since they lack understanding of simple...
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Does Indivisible Labor Explain The Difference Between Micro And Macro Elasticities? A Meta-Analysis Of Extensive Margin Elasticities
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
Macroeconomic calibrations imply much larger labor supply elasticity's than micro econometric studies. The most well known explanation for this divergence is that indivisible labor generates...
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Behavioral Economics Perspectives On Public Sector Pension Plans
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
The authors describe the pension plan features of the states and the largest cities and counties in the U.S. Unlike in the private sector, Defined Benefit (DB) pensions are still the norm in the...
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Non-Production Benefits Of Education: Crime, Health, And Good Citizenship
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
A growing body of work suggests that education offers a wide-range of benefits that extend beyond increases in labor market productivity. Improvements in education can lower crime, improve health,...
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Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact Of Chinese Imports On Innovation, It And Productivity
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
The authors examine the impact of Chinese import competition on patenting, IT, R&D and TFP using a panel of up to half a million firms over 1996-2007 across twelve European countries. They correct...
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Risk Response In Agriculture
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
Crop production is subject to supply shocks, and both expected and realized outputs as well as output prices are unknown when inputs are chosen. The process by which producers form expectations is...
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Implications Of Population Aging For Economic Growth
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 2005-2050. Population ageing will tend to lower both labor-force participation and...
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Matching Firms, Managers And Incentives
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
The authors exploit a unique combination of administrative sources and survey data to study the match between firms and managers. The data includes manager characteristics, such as risk aversion...
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Globalization, Governance, And The Returns To Cross-Border Acquisitions
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
Using a sample of control cross-border acquisitions from 61 countries from 1990 to 2007, the authors find that acquirers from countries with better governance gain more from such acquisitions and...
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International Happiness
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
This paper describes the findings from a new, and intrinsically interdisciplinary, literature on happiness and human well-being. The paper focuses on international evidence. The authors put the...
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International Trade, Offshoring And Heterogeneous Firms
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
Recent trade models determine the equilibrium distribution of firm-level efficiency endogenously and show that freer trade shifts the distribution towards higher average productivity due to entry...
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Household Incomes In South Africa
January 1, 2011, 12:00am PST
This paper uses national household survey data to examine changes in real per capita incomes in South Africa between 1993 and 2008; the start and the end of the first fifteen years of...
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How Does The Business Cycle Affect Eating Habits?
December 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
As economic expansions raise employment and wages, associated shifts in income and time constraints would be expected to also impact individuals' health. This study utilizes information from the...
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Letting Different Views About Business Cycles Compete
May 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
There are several candidate explanations for macro-fluctuations. Two of the most common discussed sources are surprise changes in disembodied technology and monetary innovations. Another popular...
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Monetary Policy And Business Cycles With Endogenous Entry And Product Variety
June 1, 2007, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies the role of endogenous producer entry and product creation for monetary policy analysis and business cycle dynamics in a general equilibrium model with imperfect price...
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Mixing Family With Business: A Study Of Thai Business Groups And The Families Behind Them
January 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
Families run a large fraction of business groups around the world. In this paper, the authors analyze how the structure of the families behind these business groups affects the groups'...
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Business Cycles, Consumption And Risk-Sharing: How Different Is China?
July 1, 2010, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors address the macroeconomic time series and identifying dimensions in which China differs from economies that are typically the subject of business-cycle research. They...
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Disasters Risk And Business Cycles
October 1, 2009, 12:00am PDT
To construct a business cycle model consistent with the observed behavior of asset prices, and study the effect of shocks to aggregate uncertainty, the author introduces a small, time-varying risk...
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Trade, Production Sharing, And The International Transmission Of Business Cycles
January 1, 2008, 12:00am PST
Countries that are more engaged in production sharing exhibit higher bilateral manufacturing output correlations. The authors use data on trade flows between US multinationals and their affiliates...
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Expectations, Learning And Business Cycle Fluctuations
July 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future...
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Correlated Disturbances And U.S. Business Cycles
February 1, 2010, 12:00am PST
The Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that are used to study business cycles typically assume that exogenous disturbances are independent auto regressions of order one. This...
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What's News In Business Cycles
August 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
In this paper, the authors perform a structural Bayesian estimation of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. The theoretical framework is a...
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Are Structural VARs With Long-Run Restrictions Useful In Developing Business Cycle Theory?
October 1, 2008, 12:00am PDT
The central finding of the recent Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) literature with a differenced specification of hours is that technology shocks lead to a fall in hours. Researchers have...
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Early Non-marital Childbearing And The "Culture Of Despair"
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper borrows from the tradition of other social sciences in considering the impact that "Culture" (broadly defined as the economic and social environment in which the poor live) plays in...
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A Testable Theory Of Imperfect Perception
June 15, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors introduce a rational choice theory that allows for many forms of imperfect perception, including failures of memory, selective attention, and adherence to simplifying rules of thumb....
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Pounds That Kill: The External Costs Of Vehicle Weight
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Heavier vehicles are safer for their own occupants but more hazardous for the occupants of other vehicles. In this paper, the authors estimate the increased probability of fatalities from being...
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Should Unemployment Insurance Vary With The Unemployment Rate? Theory And Evidence
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors study how the level of Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits that trades off the consumption smoothing benefit with the moral hazard cost of distorting job search behavior varies over...
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Productivity Volatility And The Misallocation Of Resources In Developing Economies
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors investigate the role of dynamic production inputs and their associated adjustment costs in shaping the dispersion of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and static measures of capital...
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Innovation And Productivity
August 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
What do we know about the relationship between innovation and productivity among firms? The workhorse model of this relationship is presented and the implications of analysis using this model and...
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Clashing Theories Of Unemployment
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
General-equilibrium models for studying monetary influences in general and the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate in particular contain implicit theories of unemployment. In some cases,...
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Business Partners, Financing, And The Commercialization Of Inventions
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper studies the effect of business partners on the commercialization of invention based ventures, and it assesses the relative importance of partners' human and social capital on...
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Regime Changes And Financial Markets
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Regime switching models can match the tendency of financial markets to often change their behavior abruptly and the phenomenon that the new behavior of financial variables often persists for...
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Using Implementation Intentions Prompts To Enhance Influenza Vaccination Rates
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors evaluate the results of a field experiment designed to measure the effect of prompts to form implementation intentions on realized behavioral outcomes. The outcome of interest is...
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Divide And Rule Or The Rule Of The Divided? Evidence From Africa
June 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors investigate jointly the importance of contemporary country-level institutional structures and local ethnic-specific pre-colonial institutions in shaping comparative regional...
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The Economic Impact Of Social Ties: Evidence From German Reunification
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors use the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to identify a causal effect of social ties on regional economic growth. They show that households who have social ties to East Germany in 1989...
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Using Non-Pecuniary Strategies To Influence Behavior: Evidence From A Large Scale Field Experiment
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Policymakers are increasingly using norm-based messages to influence individual decision-making. The authors partner with a metropolitan water utility to implement a natural field experiment...
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Customer Capital
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Firms spend substantial resources on marketing and selling. Interpreting this as evidence of frictions in product markets, which require firms to spend resources on customer acquisition, this...
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Negotiating With Labor Under Financial Distress
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors analyze how firms renegotiate labor contracts to extract concessions from labor. While anecdotal evidence suggests that firms tend to renegotiate down wages in times of financial...
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Connected Substitutes And Invertibility Of Demand
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors consider the invertibility of a nonparametric nonseparable demand system. Invertibility of demand is important in several contexts, including identification of demand, estimation of...
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The Empirical Content Of Models With Multiple Equilibria In Economies With Social Interactions
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors study a general class of models with social interactions that might display multiple equilibria. They propose an estimation procedure for these models and evaluate its efficiency and...
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The Labor Market Impact Of Employer Health Benefit Mandates: Evidence From San Francisco's Health Care Security Ordinance
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
A key issue surrounding employer benefit mandates is the incidence on workers through wages and employment. In this paper, the authors address this question using a pay-or-play policy implemented...
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International Recessions
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The 2008-2009 crisis was characterized by an unprecedented degree of international synchronization as all major industrialized countries experienced large macroeconomic contractions around the...
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Tax Policy And The Efficiency Of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Deferral of U.S. taxes on foreign source income is commonly characterized as a subsidy to foreign investment, as reflected in its inclusion among "Tax expenditures" and occasional calls for its...
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Supplier Responses To Wal-Mart's Invasion Of Mexico
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper examines the effect of Wal-Mart's entry into Mexico on Mexican manufacturers of consumer goods. Guided by firm interviews that suggested substantial heterogeneity across firms in how...
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Vaccine Supply: Effects Of Regulation And Competition
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
In US vaccine markets, competing producers with high fixed, sunk costs face relatively concentrated demand. The resulting price and quality competition leads to the exit of all but one or very few...
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What Really Happened During The Glorious Revolution?
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The English Glorious Revolution of 1688-89 is one of the most famous instances of 'Institutional' change in world history which has fascinated scholars because of the role it may have played in...
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When Is Capital Enough To Get Female Microenterprises Growing? Evidence From A Randomized Experiment In Ghana
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Standard models of investment predict that credit-constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital, and that how this capital is provided should not affect decisions to invest...
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American Incomes Before And After The Revolution
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Building social tables in the tradition of Gregory King, the authors quantify the level and inequality of American incomes before and after the Revolutionary War. Their tentative estimates suggest...
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Early Maternal Employment And Family Wellbeing
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper uses longitudinal data from the NICHD Study on Early Child Care (SECC) to examine the effects of maternal employment on family well-being, measured by maternal mental and overall...
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Future Skill Shortages In The U.S. Economy?
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The impending retirement of the baby boom cohort represents the first time in the history of the United States that such a large and well-educated group of workers will exit the labor force. This...
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An Optimal Tax System
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
A notable feature and principal virtue of Tax by Design is its system-wide perspective on different elements of the tax system. This paper builds on this trait and offers a more explicit...
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Economic Growth In The Mid Atlantic Region: Conjectural Estimates For 1720 To 1800
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors employ the conjectural approach to estimate the growth of GDP per capita for the colonies and states of the mid-Atlantic region (Del., NJ, NY and Penn). In contrast to previous studies...
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Sources Of Entropy In Representative Agent Models
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors propose two metrics for asset pricing models and apply them to representative agent models with recursive preferences, habits, and jumps. The metrics describe the pricing kernel's...
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Capital Flow Types, External Financing Needs, And Industrial Growth: 99 Countries, 1991-2007
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors examine the differential impact of portfolio debt, portfolio equity, and FDI inflows on 37 manufacturing industries, 99 countries, 1991-2007, extending Rajan-Zingales (1998). They...
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Public Consumption Over The Business Cycle
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
What fraction of the business cycle volatility of government purchases is accounted for as endogenous reactions to overall macroeconomic conditions? The authors answer this question in the...
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The Land That Lean Manufacturing Forgot? Management Practices In Transition Countries
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors have conducted the first survey on management practices in transition countries. They found that Central Asian transition countries, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have on average...
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How Do Firm Financial Conditions Affect Product Quality And Pricing?
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors analyze the interaction of firm product quality and pricing decisions with financial distress and bankruptcy in the airline industry. They consider an airline's choices of quality and...
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Last-Place Aversion: Evidence And Redistributive Implications
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Why do low-income individuals often oppose redistribution? The authors hypothesize that an aversion to being in "Last place" undercuts support for redistribution, with low-income individuals...
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Corporate And Personal Bankruptcy Law
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Bankruptcy is the legal process by which the debts of firms, individuals, and occasionally governments in financial distress are resolved. Bankruptcy law always includes three components. First,...
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On Measuring The Effects Of Fiscal Policy In Recessions
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors do not have a good measure of the effects of fiscal policy in a recession because the methods that they use to estimate the effects of fiscal policy - both those using the observed...
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Network Stability, Network Externalities And Technology Adoption
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
This paper investigates how the destabilizing of a social network may increase the scope of network externalities, using data on sales of a video-calling system made to an investment bank's...
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Prospective Analysis Of A Wage Subsidy For Cape Town Youth
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
Recognizing that a credible estimate of a wage subsidy's impact requires a model of the labor market that itself generates high unemployment in equilibrium, the authors estimate a structural...
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A Dynamic Model Of Demand For Houses And Neighborhoods
July 1, 2011, 12:00am PDT
The authors develop a tractable model of neighborhood choice in a dynamic setting along with a computationally straightforward estimation approach. This approach uses information about...
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