Czech National Bank

Displaying 1-21 of 21 results

  • White Papers // Jul 2011

    Time-Varying Monetary-Policy Rules And Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter For Monetary Policy?

    The authors examine whether and how selected central banks responded to episodes of financial stress over the last three decades. They employ a new monetary-policy rule estimation methodology which allows for time-varying response coefficients and corrects for endogeneity. This flexible framework applied to the USA, the UK, Australia, Canada, and...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Monetary Policy In A Small Economy After Tsunami: A New Consensus On The Horizon?

    The last financial crisis significantly changed views concerning the relationship between monetary policy, asset prices and financial stability. The authors survey the pre-crisis opinions on the appropriate monetary policy reactions to financial market developments and delineate the new consensus which is currently emerging from the lessons taken. The new consensus...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Does Money Help Predict Inflation? An Empirical Assessment For Central Europe

    This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The authors construct monetary indicators similar to those the ECB regularly uses for monetary analysis. They find some in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Financial Integration At Times Of Financial Instability

    This paper analyzes the phenomenon of financial integration on both the theoretical and empirical levels, focusing primarily on assessing the impacts of the current financial crisis. In the theoretical section the authors first look at the definition of financial integration and summarize the benefits and costs associated with this process....

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Do Financial Variables Help Predict Macroeconomic Environment? The Case Of The Czech Republic

    In this paper, the authors examine the interactions of financial variables and the macroeconomy within the block-restriction vector autoregression model and evaluate to what extent the financial variables improve the forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. For this reason, various financial variables are examined, including those unexplored in previous literature,...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Perception Is Always Right: The CNB's Monetary Policy In The Media

    In this paper, the authors analyze the favorableness and extent of the media coverage of the CNB's monetary policy decisions in the period of 2002-2007. They identify the factors explaining the variance in these two dimensions using an extensive set of articles published in the four most relevant Czech daily...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Financial And Global Stability Issues

    This paper focuses on the topical issue of financial stability from a national as well as global perspective. The importance to the CNB of the questions under examination is highlighted by the fact that this is the third time in the past six years that the paper has looked at...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2009

    Price-And News-Based Measures Of Financial Integration Among New EU Member States And The Euro Area

    The paper focuses on integration of financial markets (money, foreign exchange, bond and stock markets) in five new European Union Member States (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) and selected old EU members (Germany, Austria, Portugal and Sweden) in comparison with the euro area. The main objective is to...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    Global Financial Crisis - Possible Causes, Policy Responses And Global Consequences

    The paper is focused mainly on the causes and consequences of the recent financial crisis. The paper in this context discusses government and/or other institutions' policy responses to current financial crisis and their possible outcomes. The paper considers the role of central authorities in the age of globalized financial markets,...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Mar 2009

    The Origins of Global Imbalances

    In this paper, the authors study the endogenous response of unequally developed regions to a drop in investment and trade costs in a general equilibrium model. The response is characterized by a rise in foreign direct investment in the underdeveloped region and increased consumption in the developed one, leading to...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Openness, Financial Markets, And Policies: Cross-Country And Dynamic Patterns

    The authors document significant and robust empirical relationships in cross-country panel data between government size or social expenditure on the one hand, and trade and financial development indicators on the other. Across countries, deeper economic integration is associated with more intense government redistribution, but more developed financial markets weaken that...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is The Czech Republic Different From Germany?

    This paper deals with credit risk modelling and stress testing within the context of a Merton-type one-factor model. The authors analyze the corporate and household sectors of the Czech Republic and Germany to find determining variables of credit risk in both countries. They find that a set of similar variables...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Monetary Policy Rules With Financial Instability

    To provide a rigorous analysis of monetary policy in the face of financial instability, the authors extend the standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to include a financial system. Their simulations suggest that if financial instability affects output and inflation with a lag, and if the central bank has privileged...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Reasons Of Undershooting The Inflation Target In The Czech Republic: The Role Of Inflation Expectations

    The inflation targeting regime was introduced in the Czech Republic 10 years ago and there have been still a comparatively limited number of empirical studies explicitly attempting any evaluation as to whether and how such monetary policy regime has actually contributed to anchoring of the inflation expectations. The key purpose...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    A Simple, Model-Independent Analysis Of Reasons For Non-Fulfillment Of The Declared Inflation Target

    Success of a central bank managing its monetary policy under an inflation targeting regime may be measured in many ways. In addition to the indicators such as inflation stability, its trend toward the values targeted over a long period, or inflation expectations hovering close to inflation targets, unquestionably the degree...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Basic Characteristics Of Inflation Targeting In The Czech Republic

    This paper deals with the description of basic characteristics of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. The first part of the paper starts by briefly indicating some general macro-economic conditions of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic, including the identification of the main shocks, which affected them. This basic description...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Evaluation Of The Fulfilment Of The CNB's Inflation Targets 1998 - 2007

    The anniversary volume "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998 - 2007" contains analyses by experts of the central bank prepared at the turn of 2007 and 2008 that provide an overview of the elapsed ten years of inflation targeting in the Czech National Bank (CNB). The...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Prediction Bias And Undershooting Of The Inflation Target

    Forecasting tools represent a highly important element of the inflation targeting regime. Given the forward-looking nature of monetary policy, its decision making is to quite a degree based on predictions of the evolution of inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Good predictions may contribute to implementation of monetary policy objectives. The...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Causes Of Deviations Of Inflation From CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis

    This paper offers an empirical analysis of the causes of deviations of inflation from the CNB targets during the first ten years of inflation targeting. Section 2 presents a review of such causes as contained in the existing literature dealing with inflation targeting in the Czech Republic, and it applies...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Policy Rate Decisions And Unbiased Parameter Estimation In Conventionally Estimated Monetary Policy Rules

    The use of estimated policy rules has been on the rise over the past few decades as central banks have increasingly relied on them as policy benchmarks. While simple, conventionally estimated rules have proven insightful, their value is generally seen to depend, among other things, on the ability of the...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // May 2008

    Central Bank Losses And Economic Convergence

    This paper discusses the issue of central bank losses, developing a framework for assessing the ability of a central bank to keep its balance sheet sustainable without having to default on its policy objectives. Compared to the earlier literature, it analyses in more depth the consequences of economic convergence for...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Reasons Of Undershooting The Inflation Target In The Czech Republic: The Role Of Inflation Expectations

    The inflation targeting regime was introduced in the Czech Republic 10 years ago and there have been still a comparatively limited number of empirical studies explicitly attempting any evaluation as to whether and how such monetary policy regime has actually contributed to anchoring of the inflation expectations. The key purpose...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    A Simple, Model-Independent Analysis Of Reasons For Non-Fulfillment Of The Declared Inflation Target

    Success of a central bank managing its monetary policy under an inflation targeting regime may be measured in many ways. In addition to the indicators such as inflation stability, its trend toward the values targeted over a long period, or inflation expectations hovering close to inflation targets, unquestionably the degree...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Mar 2009

    The Origins of Global Imbalances

    In this paper, the authors study the endogenous response of unequally developed regions to a drop in investment and trade costs in a general equilibrium model. The response is characterized by a rise in foreign direct investment in the underdeveloped region and increased consumption in the developed one, leading to...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Basic Characteristics Of Inflation Targeting In The Czech Republic

    This paper deals with the description of basic characteristics of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. The first part of the paper starts by briefly indicating some general macro-economic conditions of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic, including the identification of the main shocks, which affected them. This basic description...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Evaluation Of The Fulfilment Of The CNB's Inflation Targets 1998 - 2007

    The anniversary volume "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998 - 2007" contains analyses by experts of the central bank prepared at the turn of 2007 and 2008 that provide an overview of the elapsed ten years of inflation targeting in the Czech National Bank (CNB). The...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Does Money Help Predict Inflation? An Empirical Assessment For Central Europe

    This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The authors construct monetary indicators similar to those the ECB regularly uses for monetary analysis. They find some in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Prediction Bias And Undershooting Of The Inflation Target

    Forecasting tools represent a highly important element of the inflation targeting regime. Given the forward-looking nature of monetary policy, its decision making is to quite a degree based on predictions of the evolution of inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Good predictions may contribute to implementation of monetary policy objectives. The...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Causes Of Deviations Of Inflation From CNB Targets: An Empirical Analysis

    This paper offers an empirical analysis of the causes of deviations of inflation from the CNB targets during the first ten years of inflation targeting. Section 2 presents a review of such causes as contained in the existing literature dealing with inflation targeting in the Czech Republic, and it applies...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Financial And Global Stability Issues

    This paper focuses on the topical issue of financial stability from a national as well as global perspective. The importance to the CNB of the questions under examination is highlighted by the fact that this is the third time in the past six years that the paper has looked at...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2009

    Price-And News-Based Measures Of Financial Integration Among New EU Member States And The Euro Area

    The paper focuses on integration of financial markets (money, foreign exchange, bond and stock markets) in five new European Union Member States (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) and selected old EU members (Germany, Austria, Portugal and Sweden) in comparison with the euro area. The main objective is to...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    Global Financial Crisis - Possible Causes, Policy Responses And Global Consequences

    The paper is focused mainly on the causes and consequences of the recent financial crisis. The paper in this context discusses government and/or other institutions' policy responses to current financial crisis and their possible outcomes. The paper considers the role of central authorities in the age of globalized financial markets,...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Jul 2011

    Time-Varying Monetary-Policy Rules And Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter For Monetary Policy?

    The authors examine whether and how selected central banks responded to episodes of financial stress over the last three decades. They employ a new monetary-policy rule estimation methodology which allows for time-varying response coefficients and corrects for endogeneity. This flexible framework applied to the USA, the UK, Australia, Canada, and...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Financial Integration At Times Of Financial Instability

    This paper analyzes the phenomenon of financial integration on both the theoretical and empirical levels, focusing primarily on assessing the impacts of the current financial crisis. In the theoretical section the authors first look at the definition of financial integration and summarize the benefits and costs associated with this process....

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Do Financial Variables Help Predict Macroeconomic Environment? The Case Of The Czech Republic

    In this paper, the authors examine the interactions of financial variables and the macroeconomy within the block-restriction vector autoregression model and evaluate to what extent the financial variables improve the forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. For this reason, various financial variables are examined, including those unexplored in previous literature,...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Openness, Financial Markets, And Policies: Cross-Country And Dynamic Patterns

    The authors document significant and robust empirical relationships in cross-country panel data between government size or social expenditure on the one hand, and trade and financial development indicators on the other. Across countries, deeper economic integration is associated with more intense government redistribution, but more developed financial markets weaken that...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is The Czech Republic Different From Germany?

    This paper deals with credit risk modelling and stress testing within the context of a Merton-type one-factor model. The authors analyze the corporate and household sectors of the Czech Republic and Germany to find determining variables of credit risk in both countries. They find that a set of similar variables...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Monetary Policy Rules With Financial Instability

    To provide a rigorous analysis of monetary policy in the face of financial instability, the authors extend the standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to include a financial system. Their simulations suggest that if financial instability affects output and inflation with a lag, and if the central bank has privileged...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // May 2008

    Central Bank Losses And Economic Convergence

    This paper discusses the issue of central bank losses, developing a framework for assessing the ability of a central bank to keep its balance sheet sustainable without having to default on its policy objectives. Compared to the earlier literature, it analyses in more depth the consequences of economic convergence for...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Perception Is Always Right: The CNB's Monetary Policy In The Media

    In this paper, the authors analyze the favorableness and extent of the media coverage of the CNB's monetary policy decisions in the period of 2002-2007. They identify the factors explaining the variance in these two dimensions using an extensive set of articles published in the four most relevant Czech daily...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Policy Rate Decisions And Unbiased Parameter Estimation In Conventionally Estimated Monetary Policy Rules

    The use of estimated policy rules has been on the rise over the past few decades as central banks have increasingly relied on them as policy benchmarks. While simple, conventionally estimated rules have proven insightful, their value is generally seen to depend, among other things, on the ability of the...

    Provided By Czech National Bank

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Monetary Policy In A Small Economy After Tsunami: A New Consensus On The Horizon?

    The last financial crisis significantly changed views concerning the relationship between monetary policy, asset prices and financial stability. The authors survey the pre-crisis opinions on the appropriate monetary policy reactions to financial market developments and delineate the new consensus which is currently emerging from the lessons taken. The new consensus...

    Provided By Czech National Bank