International Monetary Fund

Displaying 1-40 of 626 results

  • White Papers // Dec 2011

    Employment Protection and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies

    The authors build a small open economy, real business cycle model with labor market frictions to evaluate the role of employment protection in shaping business cycles in emerging economies. The model features matching frictions and an endogenous selection effect by which inefficient jobs are destroyed in recessions. In a quantitative...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    The Cost Of Volatile Investment In An Emerging Economy

    The author measures the welfare gains from eliminating fluctuations in investment in an emerging economy such as Argentina. The estimated welfare effects are an order of magnitude higher than those for the US and arise with moderate degrees of diminishing returns to investment. This paper calculates the welfare costs associated...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    The Role Of Monetary Policy In Turkey During The Global Financial Crisis

    Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Precautionary Savings And Global Imbalances In World General Equilibrium

    In this paper, the authors assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of the world. These areas are assumed to differ only with respect to GDP volatility which...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Sectoral Composition Of Foreign Direct Investment And External Vulnerability In Eastern Europe

    In the run up to the global crisis, countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe attracted large capital inflows and some of them built up large external imbalances. This paper investigates whether these imbalances are linked to the sectoral composition of FDI. It shows that FDI in the tradable sectors...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Did Export Diversification Soften The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis?

    This paper considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three different dimensions of specialization. First, concentration by geographic destination is considered; that is, whether the bulk of exports from a country...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Impact Of The Global Crisis On Banking Sector Soundness In Asian Low-Income Countries

    The paper takes stock of the impact of the global financial crisis that began in late 2007 on banking sectors of Asian low-income countries, by exploring bank-level data provided by Bankscope. The paper examines three key channels of possible crisis spillovers: exposures to valuation changes of mark-to-market financial assets, a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Toward Inflation Targeting In Sri Lanka

    This paper develops a practical model-based Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Evidence On Productivity, Comparative Advantage, And Networks In The Export Performance Of Firms

    This paper tests the effect of comparative advantage, size, and networking on the firm probability of exporting. The closest theoretical framework is the one of Bernard, Redding, and Schott (2007), with firm heterogeneity across countries and industries. The authors use a recently assembled multi-country multi-industry firm level dataset, and construct...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    ICT, Financial Inclusion, And Growth: Evidence From African Countries

    This paper studies the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007. Further, the authors investigate whether financial inclusion is one of the channels through which mobile phone development influences economic growth. In estimating...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Reconsidering The Role Of Food Prices In Inflation

    Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Modeling Inflation In Chad

    This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Fiscal Expectations Under The Stability And Growth Pact: Evidence From Survey Data

    The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The authors' findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Global Shocks And Their Impact On Low-Income Countries: Lessons From The Global Financial Crisis

    This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007 - 09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) Low-Income Countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Overborrowing, Financial Crises And 'Macroprudential' Policy

    This paper studies over borrowing, financial crises and macro-prudential policy in an equilibrium model of business cycles and asset prices with collateral constraints. Agents in a decentralized competitive equilibrium do not internalize the negative effects of asset fire-sales on the value of other agents' assets compared with a constrained social...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    New Indicators For Tracking Growth In Real Time

    The authors develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. They test the historical performance of the indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, they find that the indicators generally produce good GDP...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Trade And Trade Finance In The 2008-09 Financial Crisis

    Global merchandise trade sharply declined in late 2008 and early 2009, and some press and financial market reports assigned a large role for the decline to trade finance. However, the available evidence suggests that shocks to trade finance were not the major factor in the decline in trade. Surveys of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    To Fire Or To Hoard? Explaining Japan's Labor Market Response In The Great Recession

    The Great Recession pushed Japan's unemployment rate to historic highs, but the increase has been small by international standards and small relative to the large output shock. This paper explores Japan's cyclical labor market response to the global financial crisis. These findings suggest that the employment responsiveness has been historically...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Interpreting Currency Movements During The Crisis: What's The Role Of Interest Rate Differentials?

    Using an adaptation of the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition, this paper analyzes the drivers behind the large, symmetric exchange rate swings observed during the financial crisis of 2008 - 2010. Employing a Nelson-Siegel model, the authors estimate yield curves and decompose the exchange rate movements into changes they attribute...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Impact Of Fiscal Consolidation And Structural Reforms On Growth In Japan

    With Japan's public debt reaching historical levels, the need for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms have increased. As fiscal consolidation will require a sustained and large adjustment in the fiscal balance, its growth effect is a concern particularly for the short run. This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?

    This paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, the author find that higher degrees of political instability are associated...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Spanish Labor Market In A Cross-Country Perspective

    The Spanish labor market is not working: the unemployment rate is structurally very high; wages are not very responsive to labor market conditions, causing a high cyclicality of unemployment; and the labor market is highly dual. Compared with the EU15, Spanish labor market institutions and policies stand out by the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    What Is Driving Financial De-dollarization In Latin America?

    In the last decade, a group of Latin American countries (Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) experienced a gradual, yet sustained decline in financial dollarization. This paper documents the stylized facts and uses a standard VAR approach to examine the drivers of both deposit and credit de-dollarization. It finds that the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, And The Real Exchange Rate

    This paper analyzes the impact of capital inflows and exchange rate flexibility on the real exchange rate in developing countries based on panel co-integration techniques. The results show that public and private flows are associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. Among private flows, portfolio investment has the highest appreciation...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Effects Of Housing Prices And Monetary Policy In A Currency Union

    The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. The authors analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. They present evidence based on a VAR model, and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Monetary Policy Transmission In An Emerging Market Setting

    Some emerging economies have a relatively ineffective monetary policy transmission owing to weaknesses in the domestic financial system and the presence of a large and segmented informal sector. At the same time, small open economies can have a substantial monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate channel. In order to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Asian Financial Integration: Trends And Interruptions

    The paper compares trends in financial integration within Asia with those in industrialized countries and other regional groups. Declines in cross-country dispersion in equity returns and interest rates suggest increased Asian integration, with the process interrupted by crises and global volatility. Cross-border equity and bond holdings have also increased, but...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    How Does Trade Evolve In The Aftermath Of Financial Crises?

    The authors analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, They find that there is a sharp decline in a country's imports in the year following a crisis - 19 percent, on average - and this decline is...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    A Barrel Of Oil Or A Bottle Of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?

    This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities - crude oil and fine wine, the authors find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Government Debt Issuance In The Euro Area: The Impact Of The Financial Crisis

    This paper documents and analyzes crisis-related changes in government debt issuance practices in the 16 euro zone countries and Denmark. Using a newly constructed database on primary market debt issuance during 2007 - 09, the authors find evidence of a shift away from pre-crisis standards of best funding practices -...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Armenia: An Assessment Of The Real Exchange Rate And Competitiveness

    This paper uses a range of different methodologies to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate in Armenia with both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The authors estimate a country specific autoregressive distributed lag model and then proceed with the estimation of a co-integrated panel consisting of transition economies in Europe...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Investment Objectives Of Sovereign Wealth Funds-A Shifting Paradigm

    While SWF investment objectives to some extent reflect inherent characteristics, notable differences in Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) exist even amongst SWFs of similar types. Even so, this paper shows that the global crisis may have changed SWF's asset allocations in ways that may not be ideal or justified in all...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Lessons From The Financial Crisis On Modelling Systemic And Sovereign Risk

    The complex interactions, spillovers and feedbacks of the global crisis that began in 2007 remind us how important it is to improve the authors' analyzes and modelling of financial crises and sovereign risk. This paper provides a broad framework to examine how vulnerabilities can build up and suddenly erupt in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Pension Reforms

    The paper explores the macroeconomic effects of three public pension reforms, namely an increase in retirement age, a reduction in benefits and an increase in contribution rates. Using a five-region version of the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), the authors find that public pension reforms can have...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Learning About Inflation Measures For Interest Rate Rules

    Empirical evidence suggests that goods are highly heterogeneous with respect to the degree of price rigidity. The authors develop a DSGE model featuring heterogeneous nominal rigidities across two sectors to study the equilibrium determinacy and stability under adaptive learning for interest rate rules that respond to inflation measures differing in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    European Financial Linkages: A New Look At Imbalances

    The authors document external investment positions among European Union countries at the start of the financial crisis through the creation of a new database comprising bilateral external financial asset and liabilities, excluding reserve assets and derivatives. While there are some gaps in the data, the overall coverage of reported bilateral...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Japan's Quest For Growth: Exploring The Role Of Capital And Innovation

    As labor input in Japan shrinks with population aging, capital accumulation and productivity gains will drive growth over the medium-term. At the same time, a changing global landscape calls for a shift in export-oriented investment toward new markets and a new generation of products, as well as increased investment by...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Estimating A Structural Model Of Herd Behavior In Financial Markets

    The authors develop a new methodology to estimate the importance of herd behavior in financial markets: They build a structural model of informational herding that can be estimated with financial transaction data. In the model, rational herding arises because of information-event uncertainty. They estimate the model using data on a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    The Cost Of Private Debt Over The Credit Cycle

    The authors identify global and regional fluctuations in international private debt flows to emerging and developing countries using data on cross border loans and international bond issuance over 1993 - 2009. They estimate the effects of individual borrower characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions on the cost of foreign borrowing...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Into The Great Unknown: Stress Testing With Weak Data

    Stress testing has become the risk management tool du jour in the wake of the global financial crisis. In countries where the information reported by financial institutions is considered to be of sufficiently good quality, and supervisory and regulatory standards are high, stress tests can be of significant value. In...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Current Account Balance Estimates For Emerging Market Economies

    This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or norms) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. The author finds that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Informal Labour And Credit Markets: A Survey

    This paper reviews the literature on the informal economy, focusing first on empirical findings and then on existing approaches to modeling informality within both partial and general equilibrium environments. The author concentrates on labor and credit markets, since these tend to be most affected by informality. The phenomenon is particularly...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Bankruptcy And Firm Dynamics: The Case Of The Missing Firms

    Financial frictions have been documented to be an important factor behind the evolution of firms across the world. Within the theoretical strand of the literature, enforcement and information problems are now standard ways to rationalize the presence of such frictions. On the other hand, recently compiled cross-country indexes of legal...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Risk And The Corporate Structure Of Banks

    This paper identifies different sources of risk as important determinants of banks' corporate structures when expanding into new markets. Subsidiary-based corporate structures benefit from greater protection against economic risk because of affiliate-level limited liability, but are more exposed to the risk of capital expropriation than are branches. Thus, branch-based structures...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Do Currency Fundamentals Matter For Currency Speculators?

    The author compares currency carry trades with an investment strategy based on currency fundamentals: taking a long (short) position in undervalued (overvalued) currencies. Carry trades have high risk-adjusted returns, but are subject to "Crash risk." In contrast, the fundamental strategy has lower risk-adjusted returns, but is less prone to crash...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Cross-Border Investment In Small International Financial Centers

    This paper documents and assesses the role of small financial centers in the international financial system using a newly-assembled dataset. It presents estimates of the foreign asset and liability positions for a number of the most important small financial centers, and places these into context by calculating the importance of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Growth And Capital Flows With Risky Entrepreneurship

    This paper shows that the behavior of entrepreneurs facing incomplete financial markets and risky investment can explain why growth accelerations in developing countries tend to be associated with current account improvements. The uninsurable risk of losing invested capital forces entrepreneurs to rely on self-financing, so that when business opportunities open...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Monetary Policy Transmission In Mauritius Using A VAR Analysis

    Applying commonly used vector autoregression (VAR) techniques, this paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on output and prices for Mauritius, using data for 1999 - 2009. The results show that (i) an unexpected monetary policy tightening - an increase in the Bank of Mauritius policy interest rate -...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Spillovers To Central America In Light Of The Crisis: What A Difference A Year Makes

    This paper investigates Central America's external linkages over the last fifteen years of increased integration in light of the 2008 - 09 global recessions. Using structural VAR models, it is found that a one percent shock to U.S. growth shifts economic activity in Central America by 0.7 to 1 percent,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    The Global Integrated Monetary And Fiscal Model (GIMF)? Theoretical Structure

    This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the International Monetary Fund's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF). GIMF is a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model that is used extensively inside the IMF, and also at a small number of central banks, for policy and risk...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    House Price Determinants In Selected Countries Of The Former Soviet Union

    This paper analyses the recent boom-bust cycle in the housing markets of selected Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries. The analysis is based on a newly constructed database on house prices in the FSU countries. The estimations suggest that house price developments can largely be explained by the dynamics of fundamentals,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The Structural Manifestation Of The 'Dutch Disease': The Case Of Oil Exporting Countries

    The Dutch disease is the process by which a boom in a natural resource sector results in shrinking non-resource tradables. This process leads to increased specialization in the resource and non-tradable sectors leaving the economy more vulnerable to resource-specific shocks. This paper illustrates a theoretical model to examine the Dutch...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The Global Credit Crunch And Foreign Banks' Lending To Emerging Markets: Why Did Latin America Fare Better?

    The recent global financial turmoil raised questions about the stability of foreign banks' financing to emerging market countries. While foreign banks' lending growth to most emerging market regions contracted sharply, lending to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was significantly more resilient. Analyzing detailed BIS data on global banks' lending...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Development Accounting And The Rise Of TFP

    This paper presents evidence that the contribution of differences in total factor productivity (TFP) to income differences across countries steadily increased between 1970 and 2000. The author verifies that the finding is neither imputable to measurement errors in input factors nor dependent on the assumption of factor neutral differences in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Quantitative Properties Of Sovereign Default Models: Solution Methods Matter

    This paper studies the sovereign default model that has been used to account for the cyclical behavior of interest rates in emerging market economies. This model is often solved using the discrete state space technique with evenly spaced grid points. The author shows that this method necessitates a large number...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Collateral, Netting And Systemic Risk In The OTC Derivatives Market

    To mitigate systemic risk, some regulators have advocated the greater use of centralized counterparties (CCPs) to clear Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives trades. Regulators should be cognizant that large banks active in the OTC derivatives market do not hold collateral against all the positions in their trading book and the paper proves...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Regulatory Capital Charges For Too-Connected-To-Fail Institutions: A Practical Proposal

    The recent financial crisis has highlighted once more that interconnectedness in the financial system is a major source of systemic risk. The author suggests a practical way to levy regulatory capital charges based on the degree of interconnectedness among financial institutions. Namely, the charges are based on the institution's incremental...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Absorption Boom And Fiscal Stance: What Lies Ahead In Eastern Europe?

    This paper estimates revenue and expenditure pro-cyclicality with respect to output and domestic absorption in new member states of the European Union and Croatia to assess whether these countries used the boom years of 2003-07 to create sufficient fiscal space. The current crisis has found many countries short of fiscal...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Growth Convergence And Spillovers Among Indian States: What Matters? What Does Not?

    Convergence and spillovers across countries and within countries are old, but recurrent policy concerns, and India is no exception to this rule. This paper examines convergence and spillovers across Indian states using non-stationary panel data techniques. Results on convergence among Indian states are generally found to be similar, but more...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Bank Efficiency Amid Foreign Entry: Evidence From The Central American Region

    This paper investigates the efficiency of domestic and foreign banks in the Central American region during 2002-07. Using two main empirical approaches, Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis, the paper finds that foreign banks are not necessarily more efficient than their domestic counterparts. If anything, the regional banks that...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response And The Dutch Disease

    This paper examines the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, the author introduces a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Determinants Of China's Private Consumption: An International Perspective

    This paper gauges the key determinants of China's private consumption in relation to GDP using data on the Chinese economy and evidence from other countries' experiences. The results suggest there is nothing "Special" about consumption in China. Rather, the challenge is to explain why the conditioning variables - notably a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Beyond The Crisis: Revisiting Emerging Europe's Growth Model

    Focusing on the nexus between economic growth and buildup of external vulnerabilities, this paper provides a systematic account of different growth strategies followed in Central and Eastern Europe in 2000-08 and then uses this growth diagnostics to derive implications for the post-crisis recovery. The main findings point to three policy...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Transparency And Monetary Policy With Imperfect Common Knowledge

    Is it desirable that central banks be more transparent in the communication of sensible information when agents have diverse private information? In practice, there exists some consensus about the benefits of acting in this way. However, other studies warn that increasing the precision of public information may raise the volatility...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Regional Financial Integration In The GCC

    This paper investigates the extent of regional financial integration in the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The limited volume data available suggests that regional integration is non-negligible. Bahrain and Kuwait investments especially are oriented towards the region. The development of stock markets in the region will also improve...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Russia's Output Collapse And Recovery: Evidence From The Post-Soviet Transition

    The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues. The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970 - 2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth, while a survey of the economic literature suggests that the Russian economy could be viewed...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Foreign Participation In Emerging Markets? Local Currency Bond Markets

    This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 emerging markets show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The GCC Banking Sector: Topography And Analysis

    The economies of the country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) share a number of commonalities. All GCC countries are large oil exporters with fixed exchange rate regimes, which exposes them to the vagaries of international oil prices. The similarities in economic structure imply common sources of strengths and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The Embodiment Of Intangible Investment Goods: A Q-Theory Approach

    This paper extends the q-theory of investment to model explicitly the decision of firms to invest in intangibles and measures the contribution of intangible goods to the overall capital stock in the U.S. The model highlights the embodiment of intangible goods in tangibles and the role of relative price movements...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Monetary Policy Committees, Learning, And Communication

    This paper considers optimal communication by monetary policy committees in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning. The main policy implications are that there may be costs to central bank communication if the public is perpetually learning about the committee's decision-making process and policy preferences. When committee members have heterogeneous...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The Hedonic Country Product Dummy Method And Quality Adjustments For Purchasing Power Parity Calculations

    The 2005 International Comparison Program's (ICP) estimates of economy-wide purchasing power parity (PPP) are based on parity estimates for 155 basic expenditure headings, mainly estimated using country product dummy (CPD) regressions. The estimates are potentially inefficient and open to omitted variable bias for two reasons. First, they use average prices...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Foreign Bank Entry And Credit Allocation In Emerging Markets

    This paper employees a unique data set containing bank-specific information to explore how foreign bank entry determines credit allocation in emerging markets. The author investigates the impact of the mode of foreign entry (greenfield or takeover) on banks' portfolio allocation to borrowers with different degrees of informational transparency, as well...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    A Framework To Assess The Effectiveness Of IMF Technical Assistance In National Accounts

    This paper analyzes the effectiveness of technical assistance provided by AFRITAC West (AFW) in the area of national accounts using the Fund's Technical Assistance Information Management System (TAIMS). The challenge has been to report on "Ultimate outcomes" (i.e., the production and dissemination of national accounts statistics along best international practices)...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Growth Determinants Revisited

    This paper revisits the cross-country growth empirics debate using a novel Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging framework to address model uncertainty in the context of a dynamic growth model in panel data with endogenous regressors. The empirical findings suggest that once model uncertainty is accounted for there is strong evidence...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Oil Rents, Corruption, And State Stability: Evidence From Panel Data Regressions

    This paper examines the effects of oil rents on corruption and state stability exploiting the exogenous within-country variation of a new measure of oil rents for a panel of 31 oil-exporting countries during the period 1992 to 2005. The author finds that an increase in oil rents significantly increases corruption,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs In Emerging Markets?

    Using data on syndicated loan issuances by emerging market firms, the author finds that an increase in the external debt of emerging market governments significantly raises the borrowing costs of the domestic corporate sector. This finding suggests that a higher level of public external debt "Crowds out" foreign credit to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Emerging Economy Responses To The Global Financial Crisis Of 2007-09: An Empirical Analysis Of The Liquidity Easing Measures

    This paper draws on a unique data set on the nontraditional systemic liquidity easing measures recently undertaken by many emerging market economies. It offers an empirical analysis of the key determinants affecting the decision to undertake these measures over the period September 2008 - March 2009. The paper finds that...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Investment-Specific Productivity Growth: Chile In A Global Perspective

    By the end of 2007, Chile's total factor productivity was lower than ten years earlier, a performance that contrasted sharply with the previous decade, when productivity grew by a cumulative 30 percent. This paper assesses productivity trends in Chile, by decomposing productivity into investment-specific technological change (associated with improvements in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Estimating Demand For IMF Financing By Low-Income Countries In Response To Shocks

    This paper estimates factors affecting demand for Fund financing by Low-Income Countries (LICs) in response to policy and exogenous shocks. Various economic variables, including reserve coverage, current account balance to GDP, real GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, and terms of trade shocks are found to be significant determinants of Fund financing....

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Inflation Targeting Pillars: Transparency And Accountability

    There are two key factors behind the move to increased transparency on the part of central banks. First is the relationship between transparency and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The second is the link between transparency and accountability. The way in which monetary policy is conducted by central banks has...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund