International Monetary Fund

Displaying 1-40 of 508 results

  • White Papers // Dec 2011

    Employment Protection and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies

    The authors build a small open economy, real business cycle model with labor market frictions to evaluate the role of employment protection in shaping business cycles in emerging economies. The model features matching frictions and an endogenous selection effect by which inefficient jobs are destroyed in recessions. In a quantitative...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    The Cost Of Volatile Investment In An Emerging Economy

    The author measures the welfare gains from eliminating fluctuations in investment in an emerging economy such as Argentina. The estimated welfare effects are an order of magnitude higher than those for the US and arise with moderate degrees of diminishing returns to investment. This paper calculates the welfare costs associated...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    The Role Of Monetary Policy In Turkey During The Global Financial Crisis

    Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Did Export Diversification Soften The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis?

    This paper considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three different dimensions of specialization. First, concentration by geographic destination is considered; that is, whether the bulk of exports from a country...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Impact Of The Global Crisis On Banking Sector Soundness In Asian Low-Income Countries

    The paper takes stock of the impact of the global financial crisis that began in late 2007 on banking sectors of Asian low-income countries, by exploring bank-level data provided by Bankscope. The paper examines three key channels of possible crisis spillovers: exposures to valuation changes of mark-to-market financial assets, a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Precautionary Savings And Global Imbalances In World General Equilibrium

    In this paper, the authors assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of the world. These areas are assumed to differ only with respect to GDP volatility which...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Sectoral Composition Of Foreign Direct Investment And External Vulnerability In Eastern Europe

    In the run up to the global crisis, countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe attracted large capital inflows and some of them built up large external imbalances. This paper investigates whether these imbalances are linked to the sectoral composition of FDI. It shows that FDI in the tradable sectors...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Toward Inflation Targeting In Sri Lanka

    This paper develops a practical model-based Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Evidence On Productivity, Comparative Advantage, And Networks In The Export Performance Of Firms

    This paper tests the effect of comparative advantage, size, and networking on the firm probability of exporting. The closest theoretical framework is the one of Bernard, Redding, and Schott (2007), with firm heterogeneity across countries and industries. The authors use a recently assembled multi-country multi-industry firm level dataset, and construct...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    ICT, Financial Inclusion, And Growth: Evidence From African Countries

    This paper studies the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007. Further, the authors investigate whether financial inclusion is one of the channels through which mobile phone development influences economic growth. In estimating...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Reconsidering The Role Of Food Prices In Inflation

    Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Fiscal Expectations Under The Stability And Growth Pact: Evidence From Survey Data

    The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The authors' findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Modeling Inflation In Chad

    This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    New Indicators For Tracking Growth In Real Time

    The authors develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. They test the historical performance of the indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, they find that the indicators generally produce good GDP...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Global Shocks And Their Impact On Low-Income Countries: Lessons From The Global Financial Crisis

    This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007 - 09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) Low-Income Countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Overborrowing, Financial Crises And 'Macroprudential' Policy

    This paper studies over borrowing, financial crises and macro-prudential policy in an equilibrium model of business cycles and asset prices with collateral constraints. Agents in a decentralized competitive equilibrium do not internalize the negative effects of asset fire-sales on the value of other agents' assets compared with a constrained social...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Government Debt Issuance In The Euro Area: The Impact Of The Financial Crisis

    This paper documents and analyzes crisis-related changes in government debt issuance practices in the 16 euro zone countries and Denmark. Using a newly constructed database on primary market debt issuance during 2007 - 09, the authors find evidence of a shift away from pre-crisis standards of best funding practices -...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Armenia: An Assessment Of The Real Exchange Rate And Competitiveness

    This paper uses a range of different methodologies to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate in Armenia with both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The authors estimate a country specific autoregressive distributed lag model and then proceed with the estimation of a co-integrated panel consisting of transition economies in Europe...

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  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    How Does Trade Evolve In The Aftermath Of Financial Crises?

    The authors analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, They find that there is a sharp decline in a country's imports in the year following a crisis - 19 percent, on average - and this decline is...

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  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    A Barrel Of Oil Or A Bottle Of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?

    This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities - crude oil and fine wine, the authors find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is...

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  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Investment Objectives Of Sovereign Wealth Funds-A Shifting Paradigm

    While SWF investment objectives to some extent reflect inherent characteristics, notable differences in Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) exist even amongst SWFs of similar types. Even so, this paper shows that the global crisis may have changed SWF's asset allocations in ways that may not be ideal or justified in all...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Trade And Trade Finance In The 2008-09 Financial Crisis

    Global merchandise trade sharply declined in late 2008 and early 2009, and some press and financial market reports assigned a large role for the decline to trade finance. However, the available evidence suggests that shocks to trade finance were not the major factor in the decline in trade. Surveys of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    To Fire Or To Hoard? Explaining Japan's Labor Market Response In The Great Recession

    The Great Recession pushed Japan's unemployment rate to historic highs, but the increase has been small by international standards and small relative to the large output shock. This paper explores Japan's cyclical labor market response to the global financial crisis. These findings suggest that the employment responsiveness has been historically...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Interpreting Currency Movements During The Crisis: What's The Role Of Interest Rate Differentials?

    Using an adaptation of the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition, this paper analyzes the drivers behind the large, symmetric exchange rate swings observed during the financial crisis of 2008 - 2010. Employing a Nelson-Siegel model, the authors estimate yield curves and decompose the exchange rate movements into changes they attribute...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Impact Of Fiscal Consolidation And Structural Reforms On Growth In Japan

    With Japan's public debt reaching historical levels, the need for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms have increased. As fiscal consolidation will require a sustained and large adjustment in the fiscal balance, its growth effect is a concern particularly for the short run. This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?

    This paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, the author find that higher degrees of political instability are associated...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Spanish Labor Market In A Cross-Country Perspective

    The Spanish labor market is not working: the unemployment rate is structurally very high; wages are not very responsive to labor market conditions, causing a high cyclicality of unemployment; and the labor market is highly dual. Compared with the EU15, Spanish labor market institutions and policies stand out by the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    What Is Driving Financial De-dollarization In Latin America?

    In the last decade, a group of Latin American countries (Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) experienced a gradual, yet sustained decline in financial dollarization. This paper documents the stylized facts and uses a standard VAR approach to examine the drivers of both deposit and credit de-dollarization. It finds that the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, And The Real Exchange Rate

    This paper analyzes the impact of capital inflows and exchange rate flexibility on the real exchange rate in developing countries based on panel co-integration techniques. The results show that public and private flows are associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. Among private flows, portfolio investment has the highest appreciation...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Effects Of Housing Prices And Monetary Policy In A Currency Union

    The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. The authors analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. They present evidence based on a VAR model, and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Monetary Policy Transmission In An Emerging Market Setting

    Some emerging economies have a relatively ineffective monetary policy transmission owing to weaknesses in the domestic financial system and the presence of a large and segmented informal sector. At the same time, small open economies can have a substantial monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate channel. In order to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Asian Financial Integration: Trends And Interruptions

    The paper compares trends in financial integration within Asia with those in industrialized countries and other regional groups. Declines in cross-country dispersion in equity returns and interest rates suggest increased Asian integration, with the process interrupted by crises and global volatility. Cross-border equity and bond holdings have also increased, but...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Lessons From The Financial Crisis On Modelling Systemic And Sovereign Risk

    The complex interactions, spillovers and feedbacks of the global crisis that began in 2007 remind us how important it is to improve the authors' analyzes and modelling of financial crises and sovereign risk. This paper provides a broad framework to examine how vulnerabilities can build up and suddenly erupt in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    The Cost Of Private Debt Over The Credit Cycle

    The authors identify global and regional fluctuations in international private debt flows to emerging and developing countries using data on cross border loans and international bond issuance over 1993 - 2009. They estimate the effects of individual borrower characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions on the cost of foreign borrowing...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Into The Great Unknown: Stress Testing With Weak Data

    Stress testing has become the risk management tool du jour in the wake of the global financial crisis. In countries where the information reported by financial institutions is considered to be of sufficiently good quality, and supervisory and regulatory standards are high, stress tests can be of significant value. In...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals Vs Financial Stress

    This paper analyses the determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Managing Public Debt And Its Financial Stability Implications

    This paper explores the relationship between the level and management of public debt and financial stability, and explains the channels through which the two are interlinked. It suggests that the broader implications of a debt management strategy and its implementation should be carefully analyzed by debt managers and policy makers...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    U.S. Monetary Shocks And Global Stock Prices

    This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy affects global stock prices. The authors find that global stock prices respond strongly to changes in U.S. interest rate policy, with stock prices increasing (decreasing) following unexpected monetary loosening (tightening). This impact is more pronounced for sectors that depend on external financing, and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Can Covered Bonds Resuscitate Residential Mortgage Finance In The United States?

    This paper considers the case for mortgage covered bonds as an alternative to the originate-to-distribute mortgage funding model. It argues that the economic incentives provided to market participants under the covered bonds model are less susceptible to moral hazard even while retaining the key benefits of securitization such as capital...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Monetary Policy, Leverage, And Bank Risk- Taking

    The authors provide a theoretical foundation for the claim that prolonged periods of easy monetary conditions increase bank risk taking. The net effect of a monetary policy change on bank monitoring (an inverse measure of risk taking) depends on the balance of three forces: interest rate pass-through, risk shifting, and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2000

    How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts--Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts Of Output Growth

    This article evaluates the performance of consensus forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries. The question this article tries to address is how do forecasts errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? are forecasts efficient and biased? In this two key result, emerge. First, the record of failure...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2003

    Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration

    The paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country co-movement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest there have been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical co-movement among industrialized countries over...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2003

    The United States and the New Regionalism/ Bilateralism

    Current U.S. trade policy stresses establishing free trade areas (FTAs) with partners spanning the globe. Motivations include enhancing goods and services trade; stimulating investment flows; extending standards on intellectual property rights, labor, and the environment; and addressing geopolitical concerns. Simulations of FTAs with the United States highlight the importance of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2003

    Promoting Fiscal Transparency: The Complementary Roles of the IMF, Financial Markets and Civil Society

    This paper explores initiatives to date by the IMF, financial markets, and civil society organizations to assess and utilize information on fiscal transparency. The results of surveys and interviews of rating agency analysts and surveys of civil society organizations on their level of awareness of, and use of IMF fiscal...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2003

    The U.S. Dollar And The Trade Deficit: What Accounts For The Late 1990s?

    Based on a version of the IMF?s new Global Economic Model (GEM), calibrated to analyze macroeconomic interdependence between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent an asymmetric productivity shock in the tradable sector of the economy may account for real exchange rate...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jul 2000

    Large-Scale Post-Crisis Corporate Sector Restructuring

    This article summarizes the objectives, tasks, and modalities of large scale, post crisis corporate restructuring with a view to organize the policy choices and drawing some general conclusions. This article suggests that government-led restructuring efforts should integrate corporate and bank restructuring in a holistic and transparent strategy based on clearly...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2003

    The Choice Of Exchange Rate Regime And Monetary Target In Highly Dollarized Economies

    This paper examines the implications of high degrees of dollarization for the choice of exchange rate regime and the information content of various monetary aggregates in developing countries. It concludes that high degree of currency substitution argues for more fixed exchange rate regimes, may be appropriate. It is also determined...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2001

    Import-Reducing Effect of Trade Barriers: A Cross-Country Investigation

    A comprehension empirical investigation is carried out to ascertain the import-reducing effect of trade protection barriers. This paper first presents a statistical summary of the status of global trade protection. Then, based on a monopolistic competition trade model and 1994 cross-country data on trade on trade barriers, trade flows and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jul 2003

    The Role of Information In Driving FDI Flows: Host-Country Transparency And Source-Country Specialization

    This paper discusses a simple information-based model of FDI flows. On the one hand, the abundance of "intangible" capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country corporate-transparency diminishes the value...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2005

    Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries

    Under normal circumstances, a central bank should be able to operate at a profit with a core level of earnings derived from seigniorage. The paper discusses the impact of losses on central bank operations and lays out the principles and practices for handling central bank losses. It is suggested that...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2005

    Access to Bank Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Issues and Reform Strategies

    This study discusses issues of access to bank credit in Sub-Saharan Africa, and examines measures that could help facilitate access by the private sector to bank credit. It reviews in particular obstacles to credit small- and medium-scale enterprises and agriculture, and examines progress in the design and implementation of reform...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2003

    International Versus Domestic Auditing of Bank Solvency

    This paper examines alternative ways to prevent losses from bank insolvencies. It is widely viewed that transparency in reporting bank balance sheets is a key element in reducing such losses. It is, however, unclear just how such transparency would be achieved. Current approaches to avoiding insolvencies generally involve international enforcement...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2004

    Bank Consolidation and Performance

    This paper examines a large panel of more than 100 banks to study the effects of bank consolidation on performance. Overall it finds a positive and significant effect of bank consolidation on bank performance. Bank returns increase with consolidation, and insolvency risk is reduced. Additionally, the study suggests that mergers...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2005

    Trade Costs and Location of Foreign Firms in China

    This study examines the determinants of entry into by foreign firms, using information on 515 Chinese industries at the provincial level during 1998-2001. The analysis, rooted in the new economic geography, focuses on market and supplier access within and outside the province of entry, as well as production and trade...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2010

    Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?

    Monetary and fiscal policies around the world are in better shape today than two decades ago. This paper studies whether financial globalization has helped induce governments to pursue better macroeconomic policies (the "Discipline effect"). The empirical tests have two innovations. First, the authors recognize potential endogeneity of the observed capital...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2001

    Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America During the 1990s

    This paper reviews central banks' legal reform in Latin America during the 1 990s and discusses the status of central bank independence in the region. Based on this information, it builds a simplified index of central bank independence which, in addition to the commonly used criteria of political and economic...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2002

    Asian Flu Or Wall Street Virus? Price And Volatility Spillovers Of The Tech And Non-Tech Sectors In The United States And Asia

    This paper, using T-GAI{CH models, finds that the United States has been the major source of price and volatility spillovers to stock markets in the Asian region during three different periods in the last decade: the pre-Long Term Capital Management crisis period, the "Tech bubble" period, and the "Stock market...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2002

    Candidate Entry, Screening, and the Political Budget Cycle

    The authors investigate whether private information about citizens' competence in political office can be revealed by their entry and campaign expenditure decisions. They find that this depends on whether voters and candidates have common or conflicting interests; only in the former case can entry be revealing. They apply these results...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Employment Effects Of Growth Rebalancing In China

    This paper gauges the potential effects on employment of rebalancing China's export-oriented growth model toward domestic demand, particularly private consumption. Shifting to a private consumption-led growth likely means more demand for existing and new services as well as reorienting the production of tradable goods toward domestic markets. In China's case,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    The Challenge Of Enforcement In Securities Markets: Mission Impossible?

    Weaknesses in the enforcement of regulation have been targeted by the G-20 as a priority concern for reform. But enforcement efforts in securities markets have proven difficult and uneven. The recent scandal in the United States, wherein a Ponzi scheme orchestrated by Bernard Madoff went undetected by the U.S. authorities...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Measures Of Underlying Inflation In Sri Lanka

    During the first half of 2008, Sri Lanka witnessed significantly higher inflation than most other emerging Asian countries. Inflation has since declined amid declining world commodity prices and tight monetary policy. Given the sensitivity to global commodity prices, a core inflation measure could be useful for monetary policy. The purpose...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Spillovers Of The U.S. Subprime Financial Turmoil To Mainland China And Hong Kong SAR: Evidence From Stock Markets

    This paper focuses on evidence from stock markets as it investigates the spillovers from the United States to mainland China and Hong Kong SAR during the subprime crisis. Using both univariate and multivariate GARCH models, this paper finds that China's stock market is not immune to the financial crisis, as...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    An Assessment Of External Price Competitiveness For Mozambique

    This paper conducts an assessment of external price competitiveness for Mozambique. A variety of indicators suggest that Mozambique has recently lost external price competitiveness with respect to its major trading partners. Consistent with these indicators, an exchange rate assessment indicates that the metical is overvalued by 26 to 41 percent...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows And Liquidity Crunch During A Global Economic Crisis

    This paper studies whether capital flows affect the degree of credit crunch faced by a country's manufacturing firms during the 2007-09 crisis. Examining 3823 firms in 24 emerging countries, it's found that the decline in stock prices was more severe for firms that are intrinsically more dependent on external finance...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Panacea, Curse, Or Nonevent? Unconventional Monetary Policy In The United Kingdom

    The Bank of England's current "Quantitative easing" strategy has given rise to a controversial debate about the effects and risks of unconventional monetary policy. The present paper makes two contributions to this debate. First, it provides a systematic overview of unconventional policy options, drawing from existing theoretical and empirical studies....

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    India's Experience With Fiscal Rules: An Evaluation And The Way Forward

    This paper examines India's experience with fiscal rules with a view to inform the design of a possible successor fiscal framework to the FRBMA. Among several proposals to strengthen the FRBMA, a framework that focuses medium-term fiscal policy on debt sustainability by the use of a medium term debt target,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Fiscal Vulnerability And Sustainability In Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries

    Over many years rises and fall of world oil prices have been repeatedly reflected in the boom-bust cycles in oil-exporting countries the world over. The recent spectacular rise and equally spectacular fall in prices provides an opportunity to inquire whether anything is different this time. In this paper the author...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Counterparty Risk, Impact on Collateral Flows And Role For Central Counterparties

    Counterparty risk in the United States stemming from exposures to OTC derivatives payables (after netting) is now concentrated in five banks - Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Citi. This paper analyzes how such risks have shifted over the past year. The author estimates that the adverse...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?

    This paper assesses the sustainability of China's export-oriented growth over the medium to longer term. It shows that maintaining the current export-oriented growth would require significant gains in market share through lower prices in a range of industries. This, in turn, could be achieved through a combination of increases in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Interest Rate Liberalization In China

    What might interest rate liberalization do to intermediation and the cost of capital in China? China's most binding interest rate control is a ceiling on the deposit rate, although lending rates are also regulated. Through case studies and model-based simulations, the author finds that liberalization will likely result in higher...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Does Good Financial Performance Mean Good Financial Intermediation In China?

    Chinese banks generate large profits and have relatively low nonperforming loans. However, good financial performance does not, in itself, guarantee that banks efficiently intermediate the economy's financial resources. This paper first examines how efficient Chinese banks are in financial intermediation, using the stochastic production frontier approach. Quality of loans are...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Systemic Liquidity Management In The U.A.E.: Issues And Options

    This paper analyzes the U.A.E.'s liquidity management framework in the context of the 2008 global financial crisis and the measures taken by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. to ease liquidity pressures in the second half of 2008. Drawing also on an empirical analysis of data for 15 U.A.E. banks...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Improving Surveillance Across The CEMAC Region

    This paper considers the design of the surveillance, and, in particular, the fiscal criteria in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) with the view to ensuring they are consistent with internal and external sustainability. This consistency is important within a monetary union because fiscal policy is the primary...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    From Lombard Street To Avenida Paulista: Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing In Brazil In Response To The Global Shock Of 2008-09

    The provision of foreign exchange liquidity by emerging market central banks during the global shock of 2008 - 09 departs from the domestic liquidity lender of last resort role described by Bagehot in his classic "Lombard Street." This paper documents and analyzes the foreign exchange liquidity providing measures of the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Institutional Factors And Financial Sector Development: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa

    The paper assesses the effects of certain institutional factors on financial sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to determine the extent to which these institutions affect the financial sector, and to suggest which institutions play a more critical role in each country. Results suggest...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Countercyclical Macro Prudential Policies In A Supporting Role To Monetary Policy

    This paper explores how prudential regulations can support monetary policy in reducing output fluctuations while maintaining financial stability. It uses a new framework that blends a standard model for monetary policy analysis with a contingent claims model of financial sector vulnerabilities. The results suggest that binding countercyclical prudential regulations can...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Macroeconomic Implications For Hong Kong SAR Of Accommodative U.S. Monetary Policy

    This paper discusses the potential macroeconomic implications for Hong Kong SAR of accommodative monetary policy in the United States. It shows, through model simulations, that a resumption of the credit channel in Hong Kong SAR has the potential to create inflation in both goods and asset markets. Expansionary financial conditions...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Fiscal Stimulus To The Rescue? Short-Run Benefits And Potential Long-Run Costs Of Fiscal Deficits

    This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to compute short-run multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Putting The Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, And Business Cycle Comovement

    Countries that trade more with each other exhibit higher business cycle correlation. This paper examines the mechanisms underlying this relationship using a large cross-country industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The author shows that sector pairs that experience more bilateral trade exhibit stronger co-movement. Vertical linkages in production...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    Credit Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa - Sources, Risks, And Policy Responses

    In this paper, the author analyzes credit growth in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade focusing on the post-2002 rapid credit growth in select countries. The author develops regression models of the fundamental determinants of bank credit and uses them to examine whether they can fully explain developments in rapid...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund