International Monetary Fund

Displaying 1-40 of 558 results

  • White Papers // Dec 2011

    Employment Protection and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies

    The authors build a small open economy, real business cycle model with labor market frictions to evaluate the role of employment protection in shaping business cycles in emerging economies. The model features matching frictions and an endogenous selection effect by which inefficient jobs are destroyed in recessions. In a quantitative...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    The Cost Of Volatile Investment In An Emerging Economy

    The author measures the welfare gains from eliminating fluctuations in investment in an emerging economy such as Argentina. The estimated welfare effects are an order of magnitude higher than those for the US and arise with moderate degrees of diminishing returns to investment. This paper calculates the welfare costs associated...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    The Role Of Monetary Policy In Turkey During The Global Financial Crisis

    Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Did Export Diversification Soften The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis?

    This paper considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three different dimensions of specialization. First, concentration by geographic destination is considered; that is, whether the bulk of exports from a country...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Impact Of The Global Crisis On Banking Sector Soundness In Asian Low-Income Countries

    The paper takes stock of the impact of the global financial crisis that began in late 2007 on banking sectors of Asian low-income countries, by exploring bank-level data provided by Bankscope. The paper examines three key channels of possible crisis spillovers: exposures to valuation changes of mark-to-market financial assets, a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Precautionary Savings And Global Imbalances In World General Equilibrium

    In this paper, the authors assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of the world. These areas are assumed to differ only with respect to GDP volatility which...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Sectoral Composition Of Foreign Direct Investment And External Vulnerability In Eastern Europe

    In the run up to the global crisis, countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe attracted large capital inflows and some of them built up large external imbalances. This paper investigates whether these imbalances are linked to the sectoral composition of FDI. It shows that FDI in the tradable sectors...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Toward Inflation Targeting In Sri Lanka

    This paper develops a practical model-based Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Evidence On Productivity, Comparative Advantage, And Networks In The Export Performance Of Firms

    This paper tests the effect of comparative advantage, size, and networking on the firm probability of exporting. The closest theoretical framework is the one of Bernard, Redding, and Schott (2007), with firm heterogeneity across countries and industries. The authors use a recently assembled multi-country multi-industry firm level dataset, and construct...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    ICT, Financial Inclusion, And Growth: Evidence From African Countries

    This paper studies the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007. Further, the authors investigate whether financial inclusion is one of the channels through which mobile phone development influences economic growth. In estimating...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Reconsidering The Role Of Food Prices In Inflation

    Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Modeling Inflation In Chad

    This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Fiscal Expectations Under The Stability And Growth Pact: Evidence From Survey Data

    The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The authors' findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    New Indicators For Tracking Growth In Real Time

    The authors develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. They test the historical performance of the indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, they find that the indicators generally produce good GDP...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Global Shocks And Their Impact On Low-Income Countries: Lessons From The Global Financial Crisis

    This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007 - 09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) Low-Income Countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Overborrowing, Financial Crises And 'Macroprudential' Policy

    This paper studies over borrowing, financial crises and macro-prudential policy in an equilibrium model of business cycles and asset prices with collateral constraints. Agents in a decentralized competitive equilibrium do not internalize the negative effects of asset fire-sales on the value of other agents' assets compared with a constrained social...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Impact Of Fiscal Consolidation And Structural Reforms On Growth In Japan

    With Japan's public debt reaching historical levels, the need for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms have increased. As fiscal consolidation will require a sustained and large adjustment in the fiscal balance, its growth effect is a concern particularly for the short run. This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?

    This paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, the author find that higher degrees of political instability are associated...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Spanish Labor Market In A Cross-Country Perspective

    The Spanish labor market is not working: the unemployment rate is structurally very high; wages are not very responsive to labor market conditions, causing a high cyclicality of unemployment; and the labor market is highly dual. Compared with the EU15, Spanish labor market institutions and policies stand out by the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    What Is Driving Financial De-dollarization In Latin America?

    In the last decade, a group of Latin American countries (Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) experienced a gradual, yet sustained decline in financial dollarization. This paper documents the stylized facts and uses a standard VAR approach to examine the drivers of both deposit and credit de-dollarization. It finds that the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, And The Real Exchange Rate

    This paper analyzes the impact of capital inflows and exchange rate flexibility on the real exchange rate in developing countries based on panel co-integration techniques. The results show that public and private flows are associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. Among private flows, portfolio investment has the highest appreciation...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    The Effects Of Housing Prices And Monetary Policy In A Currency Union

    The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. The authors analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. They present evidence based on a VAR model, and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Monetary Policy Transmission In An Emerging Market Setting

    Some emerging economies have a relatively ineffective monetary policy transmission owing to weaknesses in the domestic financial system and the presence of a large and segmented informal sector. At the same time, small open economies can have a substantial monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate channel. In order to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Asian Financial Integration: Trends And Interruptions

    The paper compares trends in financial integration within Asia with those in industrialized countries and other regional groups. Declines in cross-country dispersion in equity returns and interest rates suggest increased Asian integration, with the process interrupted by crises and global volatility. Cross-border equity and bond holdings have also increased, but...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    How Does Trade Evolve In The Aftermath Of Financial Crises?

    The authors analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, They find that there is a sharp decline in a country's imports in the year following a crisis - 19 percent, on average - and this decline is...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    A Barrel Of Oil Or A Bottle Of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?

    This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities - crude oil and fine wine, the authors find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Government Debt Issuance In The Euro Area: The Impact Of The Financial Crisis

    This paper documents and analyzes crisis-related changes in government debt issuance practices in the 16 euro zone countries and Denmark. Using a newly constructed database on primary market debt issuance during 2007 - 09, the authors find evidence of a shift away from pre-crisis standards of best funding practices -...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Armenia: An Assessment Of The Real Exchange Rate And Competitiveness

    This paper uses a range of different methodologies to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate in Armenia with both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The authors estimate a country specific autoregressive distributed lag model and then proceed with the estimation of a co-integrated panel consisting of transition economies in Europe...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Investment Objectives Of Sovereign Wealth Funds-A Shifting Paradigm

    While SWF investment objectives to some extent reflect inherent characteristics, notable differences in Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) exist even amongst SWFs of similar types. Even so, this paper shows that the global crisis may have changed SWF's asset allocations in ways that may not be ideal or justified in all...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Trade And Trade Finance In The 2008-09 Financial Crisis

    Global merchandise trade sharply declined in late 2008 and early 2009, and some press and financial market reports assigned a large role for the decline to trade finance. However, the available evidence suggests that shocks to trade finance were not the major factor in the decline in trade. Surveys of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    To Fire Or To Hoard? Explaining Japan's Labor Market Response In The Great Recession

    The Great Recession pushed Japan's unemployment rate to historic highs, but the increase has been small by international standards and small relative to the large output shock. This paper explores Japan's cyclical labor market response to the global financial crisis. These findings suggest that the employment responsiveness has been historically...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2011

    Interpreting Currency Movements During The Crisis: What's The Role Of Interest Rate Differentials?

    Using an adaptation of the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition, this paper analyzes the drivers behind the large, symmetric exchange rate swings observed during the financial crisis of 2008 - 2010. Employing a Nelson-Siegel model, the authors estimate yield curves and decompose the exchange rate movements into changes they attribute...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Lessons From The Financial Crisis On Modelling Systemic And Sovereign Risk

    The complex interactions, spillovers and feedbacks of the global crisis that began in 2007 remind us how important it is to improve the authors' analyzes and modelling of financial crises and sovereign risk. This paper provides a broad framework to examine how vulnerabilities can build up and suddenly erupt in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    When And Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation?

    The authors review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. They also observe that real...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    What Caused The Global Financial Crisis?- Evidence On The Drivers Of Financial Imbalances 1999?2007

    This paper investigates empirically the drivers of financial imbalances ahead of the global financial crisis. Three factors may have contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances: rising global imbalances (capital flows), monetary policy that might have been too loose, inadequate supervision and regulation. Panel data regressions are performed for OECD...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Macroeconomic Effects Of Public Pension Reforms

    The paper explores the macroeconomic effects of three public pension reforms, namely an increase in retirement age, a reduction in benefits and an increase in contribution rates. Using a five-region version of the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), the authors find that public pension reforms can have...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Learning About Inflation Measures For Interest Rate Rules

    Empirical evidence suggests that goods are highly heterogeneous with respect to the degree of price rigidity. The authors develop a DSGE model featuring heterogeneous nominal rigidities across two sectors to study the equilibrium determinacy and stability under adaptive learning for interest rate rules that respond to inflation measures differing in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    European Financial Linkages: A New Look At Imbalances

    The authors document external investment positions among European Union countries at the start of the financial crisis through the creation of a new database comprising bilateral external financial asset and liabilities, excluding reserve assets and derivatives. While there are some gaps in the data, the overall coverage of reported bilateral...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Japan's Quest For Growth: Exploring The Role Of Capital And Innovation

    As labor input in Japan shrinks with population aging, capital accumulation and productivity gains will drive growth over the medium-term. At the same time, a changing global landscape calls for a shift in export-oriented investment toward new markets and a new generation of products, as well as increased investment by...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Estimating A Structural Model Of Herd Behavior In Financial Markets

    The authors develop a new methodology to estimate the importance of herd behavior in financial markets: They build a structural model of informational herding that can be estimated with financial transaction data. In the model, rational herding arises because of information-event uncertainty. They estimate the model using data on a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Recovery Determinants Of Distressed Banks: Regulators, Market Discipline, Or The Environment?

    Based on detailed regulatory intervention data among German banks during 1994 - 2008, the author tests if supervisory measures affect the likelihood and the timing of bank recovery. Severe regulatory measures increase both the likelihood of recovery and its duration while weak measures are insignificant. With the benefit of hindsight,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    International Pricing Of Emerging Market Corporate Debt: Does The Corporate Matter?

    The pricing of emerging market assets is thought to principally reflect changes in global sentiments and country risk. In turn, country risk is a reflection of a lack of sufficient information, agency problems (inability of a foreign lender to monitor a distant borrower), and sovereign risk. For these reasons, it...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    The Global Financial Crisis And Workers' Remittances To Africa: What's The Damage?

    One of the distinguishing features of the global financial crisis of 2007 - 09 is its effect on remittances. Until the financial crisis, remittances had proven to be a remarkably dependable source of income for households in developing economies, growing robustly regardless of the state of the business cycle. But...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Financial Shocks And TFP Growth

    The paper investigates how changes in industries' funding costs affect total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Based on panel regressions using 31 U.S. and Canadian industries between 1991 and 2007, and using industries' dependence on external funding as an identification mechanism, the author shows that increases in the cost of funds...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    The Location Of Domestic And Foreign Production Affiliates By French Multinational Firms

    Economists interested in location choices usually focus their attention on investments abroad. This neglects the fact that multinational enterprises continue to invest domestically while undertaking foreign expansion. This paper compares investments at home and abroad. Our firm-level dataset shows an important home bias in productive investments. Part of this "Excessive"...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    An Estimated Model With Macrofinancial Linkages For India

    This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with macro-financial linkages. The model includes a financial accelerator - entrepreneurs are assumed to partially finance investment using domestic and foreign currency debt - to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Dissecting Taylor Rules In A Structural VAR

    This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. The author finds that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    The Outlook For Financing Japan's Public Debt

    Despite the rapid rise in public debt and large fiscal deficits, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained fairly stable. Possible factors include: Japan's sizeable pool of household savings, presence of large and stable institutional investors, and strong home bias. These factors are likely to persist for some time, but...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Responding To Banking Crises: Lessons From Cross-Country Evidence

    A common legacy of banking crises is a large increase in government debt, as fiscal resources are used to shore up the banking system. Do crisis response strategies that commit more fiscal resources lower the economic costs of crises? Based on evidence from a sample of 40 banking crises the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Inflation In Tajikistan: Forecasting Analysis And Monetary Policy Challenges

    This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of - and forecast - inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, the author was able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    China: Does Government Health And Education Spending Boost Consumption?

    Consumption in China is unusually low and has continued to decline as a share of GDP over the past decade. A key policy question is how to reverse this trend, and rebalance growth away from reliance on exports and investment and toward consumption. This paper investigates whether the sizable increase...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Estimating Poland's Potential Output: A Production Function Approach

    This paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints....

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Are Financial Crises Alike?

    This paper investigates whether financial crises are alike by considering whether a single modeling framework can fit multiple distinct crises in which contagion effects link markets across national borders and asset classes. The crises considered are Russia and LTCM in the second half of 1998, Brazil in early 1999, dot-com...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Spillovers Of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract The "Great Moderation"?

    Even prior to the extreme volatility just observed, output growth volatility - following protracted decline - was flattening or mildly rising in some countries. More widespread was an increasing tendency from the mid-1990s for shocks in one country to transmit rapidly to other countries, creating the potential for heightened global...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Fiscal Objectives In The Post IMF Program World: The Case Of Albania

    The paper discusses the challenges facing Albania's fiscal policy following the graduation from the IMF programs. It argues that Albania's public debt remains too high and needs to be reduced. Strengthening the fiscal framework, including by introducing a numerical fiscal rule, could help achieve this objective. This paper discusses two...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus - A Smooth Transition Model

    Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007 - 08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960 - 2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. The author uses a smooth transition model to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Economic Transition And Health Care Reform: The Experience Of Europe And Central Asia

    This paper exploits the staggered adoption of major concurrent health reforms in countries in Europe and Central Asia after 1990 to estimate their impact on public health expenditure, utilization, and avoidable deaths. While the health systems all derived from the same paradigm under central planning, they have since introduced changes...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Asset Securitization And Optimal Retention

    This paper builds on recent research by Fender and Mitchell (2009) who show that if financial institutions securitize loans, retaining an interest in the equity tranche does not always induce the securitizer to diligently screen borrowers ex ante. The author first determines the conditions under which this scenario becomes binding...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Effects Of Fiscal Stimulus In Structural Models

    The question of whether temporary fiscal stimulus can effectively stimulate aggregate demand has become the subject of a lively debate that is critical for future policy decisions. Empirical studies can provide some guidance, but their estimates are very dispersed, and they have difficulties identifying key issues including the interaction between...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    A Public Financial Management Framework For Resources-Producing Countries

    This paper overviews the challenges posed by resource revenues management and the policy prescriptions to meet them, and focuses on the Public Financial Management (PFM) framework and reforms that resource-producing countries should adopt. The paper outlines a PFM framework and reform path that take into account the institutional diversity of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Tax Revenue Response To The Business Cycle

    This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. The author finds a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies. The author also finds...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Crisis Management And Resolution For A European Banking System

    This paper proposes an integrated crisis management and resolution framework for the EU's single banking market. It comprises a European Resolution Authority (ERA), armed with the mandate and the tools to deal cost-effectively with failing systemic cross-border banks, and is designed to address many fundamental operational and incentive problems. It...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Public Expenditures On Social Programs And Household Consumption In China

    This paper shows that increasing government social expenditures can make a substantive contribution to increasing household consumption in China. The paper first undertakes an empirical study of the relationship between the savings rate and social expenditures for a panel of OECD countries and provides illustrative estimates of their implications for...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    The Cyclicality Of Fiscal Policy In The Middle East And Central Asia: Is The Current Crisis Different?

    The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the region during the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Competition And Firm Productivity: Evidence From Firm-Level Data

    This paper presents empirical evidence on the impact of competition on firm productivity. Using firm-level observations from the World Bank Enterprise Survey database, the author finds a positive and robust causal relationship between the proxies for competition and the measures of productivity, it's also found that countries that implemented product-market...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    ICT Equipment Investment And Growth In Low- And Lower-Middle-Income Countries

    While production of ICT equipment plays a subordinate role for economic growth in most of these countries, they do benefit from capital deepening arising from falling prices of ICT equipment. Adapting established growth accounting approaches to the data environment of low-income countries, the author quantifies the growth impacts of absorption...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Post-Crisis Bank Behavior: Lessons From Mercosur

    Did the occurrence of systemic banking crises in the 1990s and 2000s significantly alter the behavior of banks in the Mercosur? The objective of this paper is to answer this question by analyzing changes in bank behavior after crises in the Mercosur region. To the author's knowledge, this is the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The Housing Cycle In Emerging Middle Eastern Economies And Its Macroeconomic Policy Implications

    This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    A Fistful Of Dollars: Lobbying And The Financial Crisis

    Using detailed information on lobbying and mortgage lending activities, the author finds that lenders lobbying more on issues related to mortgage lending (i) had higher loan-to-income ratios, (ii) securitized more intensively, and (iii) had faster growing portfolios. Ex-post, delinquency rates are higher in areas where lobbyist' lending grew faster and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Jointly Optimal Monetary And Fiscal Policy Rules Under Borrowing Constraints

    This paper studies the welfare properties of an economy where both monetary and fiscal policy follow simple rules, and where a subset of agents is borrowing constrained. The optimized fiscal rule is far more aggressive than automatic stabilizers, and stabilizes the income of borrowing constrained agents, rather than output. The...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    On The Sources Of Oil Price Fluctuations

    Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. This paper aims to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Growth And Structural Reforms: A New Assessment

    This paper presents a simultaneous assessment of the relationship between economic performance and three groups of economic reforms: domestic finance, trade, and the capital account. Among these, domestic financial reforms, and trade reforms, are robustly associated with economic growth, but only in middle-income countries. In contrast, the author does not...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Trade And Thy Neighbor's War

    This paper examines the spatial dispersion effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. The empirical findings - based on different measures of conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and conflict - reveal a significant collateral damage in terms of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Lost Decade In Translation: What Japan's Crisis Could Portend About Recovery From The Great Recession

    Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan's growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan's experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies For Oil Exporting Countries

    Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "Excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences In The Output Impact

    The author provides one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, the author finds that a small set of variables explain...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Elasticity Optimism

    In most macroeconomic models, the substitutability between domestic and foreign goods is calibrated using aggregated data. This imposes homogeneous elasticities across goods, and the calibration is only valid under this assumption. If elasticities are heterogeneous, the aggregate substitutability is a weighted average of good-specific elasticities, which in general cannot be...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The General Data Dissemination System (GDDS)-A Reflection On Its First 12 Years And Plans For Taking It Forward

    The paper reviews the developments in the last 12 years that have influenced the evolution of the IMF's General Data Dissemination System, leading to reforms to enhance its role. The GDDS itself is part of a broader IMF Data Standards Initiative launched in 1996 to help address macroeconomic data deficiencies,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    How Russia Affects The Neighborhood: Trade, Financial, And Remittance Channels

    The author tests the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    The Short-Run Macroeconomics Of Aid Inflows: Understanding The Interaction Of Fiscal And Reserve Policy

    The author develops a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. The author distinguishes between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid - using the aid to finance a higher current account...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund