International Monetary Fund

Displaying 81-120 of 442 results

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    A Perspective On Predicting Currency Crises

    Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that the authors are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. The authors set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In this study, the methods...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    The Euro's Effect On Trade Imbalances

    When does trade become a one-way relationship? The authors study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. They find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    What Can International Cricket Teach Us About The Role Of Luck In Labor Markets?

    How important is luck in determining labor market outcomes? The authors address this question using a new dataset of all international test cricketers who debuted between 1950 and 1985. They present evidence that a player's debut performance is strongly affected by an exogenous source of variation: whether the debut series...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Nonperforming Loans In The GCC Banking System And their Macroeconomic Effects

    According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. This model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Monetary Transmission In Low Income Countries

    This paper reviews monetary transmission mechanisms in Low-Income Countries (LICs) to identify aspects of the channels that may operate differently in LICs relative to advanced and emerging economies. Given the weak institutional frameworks, reduced role of securities markets, imperfect competition in the banking sector and the resulting high cost of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    On The Distributive Effects Of Terms Of Trade Shocks: The Role Of Non-tradable Goods

    The authors introduce non-tradable goods to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model to study the distributive effects of terms of trade shocks. They show that the employment of resources in activities producing exclusively for the local market induces a crucial association between domestic spending and factor demand and prices, which is absent...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, And Development Aid: New Evidence

    The authors examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970‒2005. The authors find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to business cycles in donor and recipient countries. However, they become countercyclical when recipient countries face...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Deconstructing The International Business Cycle: Why Does A U.S. Sneeze Give The Rest Of The World A Cold?

    The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. The authors estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a Structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. This new method freely estimates the contemporaneous correlation matrix...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Spillovers From Europe Into Morocco And Tunisia

    This paper examines the economic and financial linkages between Morocco and Tunisia and their European partners. Using structural vector auto regressions, the authors find that growth shocks in European partner countries generate significant responses on growth in both Morocco and Tunisia. For Tunisia, exports and, to a much lesser extent,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    The Impact Of The Great Recession On Emerging Markets

    This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on Emerging Market Economies (EMs). The cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker fundamentals and greater financial and trade linkages. This effect is observed along a number of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Financial Contagion Through Bank Deleveraging: Stylized Facts And Simulations Applied To The Financial Crisis

    The financial crisis has highlighted the importance of various channels of financial contagion across countries. This paper first presents stylized facts of international banking activities during the crisis. It then describes a simple model of financial contagion based on bank balance sheet identities and behavioral assumptions of deleveraging. Cascade effects...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    International Capital Flows And Development: Financial Openness Matters

    Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? The authors revisit the Lucas paradox and explore the role of capital account restrictions in shaping capital flows at various stages of economic development. They find that, when accounting for the degree of capital account openness, the prediction of the neoclassical theory...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Is Social Spending Procyclical?

    This paper studies the cyclical behavior of public spending on health and education in 150 countries during 1987 - 2007. It finds that spending on education and health is procyclical in developing countries and acyclical in developed countries. In addition, education and health expenditures follow an asymmetric pattern in developing...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Financial Frictions, Investment, And Institutions

    Financial frictions have been identified as key factors affecting economic fluctuations and growth. But, can institutional reforms reduce financial frictions? Based on a canonical investment model, the authors consider two potential channels: financial transaction costs at the firm level; and required return at the country level. They empirically investigate the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Assessing The Risk Of Private Sector Debt Overhang In The Baltic Countries

    Between 2000 and 2007 nonfinancial private sector credit expanded rapidly in the Baltic countries, resulting in a non-negligible build-up of debt. Could this legacy debt hold back the economic recovery of the region? This paper analyzes the setting in each of the three countries and, with the help of an...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    After The Crisis: Assessing The Damage In Italy

    Italy's deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these long-standing weaknesses, taking a heavy toll on Italy's economy. With output back to its end- 2001 level, Italy's output losses associated with the crisis...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Crisis And Recovery: Role Of The Exchange Rate Regime In Emerging Market Countries

    This paper examines the role of the exchange rate regime in explaining how emerging market economies fared in the recent global financial crisis, particularly in terms of output losses and growth resilience. After controlling for regime switches during the crisis, using alternative definitions for pegs, and taking account of other...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Bank Lending In Turkey: Effects Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies

    This paper analyzes the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on Turkish banks' lending activities in the post-crisis period. In particular, the authors show that changes in monetary policy have affected credit growth through their impact on the cost of external funds and liquidity constraints. In addition, following the shift...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Protection For Free? The Political Economy Of U.S. Tariff Suspensions

    This paper studies the political influence of individual firms on Congressional decisions to suspend tariffs on U.S. imports of intermediate goods. The authors develop a model in which firms influence the government by transmitting information about the value of protection, via costless messages (cheap-talk) and costly messages (lobbying). They estimate...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Mother, Can I trust The Government? Sustained Financial Deepening - A Political Institutions View

    Only a minority of countries have succeeded in establishing a developed financial system, despite widespread financial liberalization. Confronted with this finding, the "political institutions view" claims that sustained financial deepening is most likely to take place in institutional environments where governments effectively impose constraints on their own powers in order...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Commodity Windfalls, Polarization, And Net Foreign Assets: Panel Data Evidence On The Voracity Effect

    This paper examines the effect that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970-2007. The main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign assets, but only in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Bank Capital And Uncertainty

    An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital. This paper investigates this implication empirically with U.S. Commercial Banks data and finds statistically significant and robust evidence...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Investment-Specific Technology Shocks And International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment

    In this paper, the authors first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks to an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of them along the lines of Raffo (2009) successfully addresses the "quantity", "international comovement", "Backus-Smith", and "price" puzzles. Second, they use OECD data for...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility And Decrease Leverage?

    The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. The authors show that,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    The End Of An Era? The Medium And Long-Term Effects Of The Global Crisis On Growth

    This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, The authors show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Information Content Of DQAF Indicators - Empirical Entropy Analysis

    The study presents an analysis of the information content of IMF's Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) indicators. There are significant differences in the quantity of information between DQAF dimensions and sub-dimensions. The most informative DQAF dimension is accessibility, followed by the prerequisites of quality and accuracy and reliability. The least...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Data Dissemination Standards And The Statistical Quality Of The IMF?s World Economic Outlook Forecasts

    This paper analyzes the effects of IMF member countries participation in the IMF's Data Standards Initiatives (DSI) on the statistical quality of WEO forecasts. Results show that WEO forecasts for SDDS subscribers are in general better than for GDDS participants and those member countries than do not participate in the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    The Unequal Benefits Of Fuel Subsidies: A Review Of Evidence For Developing Countries

    This paper reviews evidence on the impact of fuel subsidy reform on household welfare in developing countries. On average, the burden of subsidy reform is neutrally distributed across income groups; a $0.25 decrease in the per liter subsidy results in a 6 percent decrease in income for all groups. More...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    The Effects Of The Global Crisis On Islamic And Conventional Banks: A Comparative Study

    This paper examines the performance of Islamic banks (IBs) and conventional banks (CBs) during the recent global crisis by looking at the impact of the crisis on profitability, credit and asset growth, and external ratings in a group of countries where the two types of banks have significant market share....

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Optimal Price Indices For Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets

    In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. The authors develop a two-sector two-good new-Keynesian model to study the optimal choice of price index in markets with financial frictions. They find that, in the presence of financial frictions,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    To Starve Or Not To Starve The Beast?

    For thirty years prominent voices have advocated a policy of "starving the beast" - cutting taxes to force government spending cuts. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare consequences of this policy using a two-country general equilibrium model. Under several strong assumptions the policy, if fully implemented, produces domestic output...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    How Commodity Price Curves And Inventories React To A Short-Run Scarcity Shock

    How does a commodity market adjust to a temporary scarcity shock which causes a shift in the slope of the futures price curve? The authors find long-run relationships between spot and futures prices, inventories and interest rates, which means that such shocks lead to an adjustment back towards a stable...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Macroprudential Regulation Under Repo Funding

    The use of collateral has become one of the most widespread risk mitigation techniques. While it brings stabilizing effects to the individual lender the authors argue that it may exacerbate systemic risk through margin call activation. They show how a liquidity shock to the cash lender may propagate as a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Recent Credit Stagnation In The MENA Region: What To Expect? What Can Be Done?

    This paper examines the recent credit slowdown among Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries from three analytical angles. First, it finds that, similar to other regions and to its past history, a credit boom preceded the current slowdown, and that a protracted period of sluggish growth is likely going...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Monetary Transmission Of Global Imbalances In Asian Countries

    The paper explores the linkages between the global and domestic monetary gaps, and estimates the effects of monetary gaps on output growth, inflation, and net saving rates using panel data for 20 Asian countries for 1980 - 2008. The authors find a significant pass-through of the global monetary gap to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Cyclical Behavior Of Inventories And Growth Projections: Recent Evidence From Europe And The United States

    In the United States and a few European countries, inventory behavior is mainly the outcome of demand shocks: a standard buffer-stock model best characterizes these economies. But most of the European countries are described by a modified buffer-stock model where supply shocks dominate. In contrast to the United States, inventories...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2010

    The Dynamic Effects Of Commodity Prices On Fiscal Performance In Latin America

    The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries' fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set??which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures? This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2010

    A Macro Model Of The Credit Channel In A Currency Union Member: The Case Of Benin

    This paper applies and extends a theoretical model built by Agenor and Montiel (2007) by exploring the effectiveness of government bonds and monetary policy in a small, open, credit-based economy with a fixed exchange rate. The model is applied to Benin, a member of a currency union, using a general...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2010

    Price Of Risk - Recent Evidence From Large Financials

    Probability of default (PD) measures have been widely used in estimating potential losses of, and contagion among, large financial institutions. In a period of financial stress however, the existing methods to compute PDs and generate loss estimates may vary significantly. This paper discusses three issues that should be taken into...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2010

    Still Minding The Gap - Inflation Dynamics Duiing Episodes Of Persistent Large Output Gaps

    This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. The authors find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2010

    Structural Breaks In Fiscal Performance: Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything To Do With Them?

    In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effectiveness of these laws remain tentative. In this paper, the authors test empirically whether fiscal performance, measured as the level of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2010

    Bankers Without Borders? Implications Of Ring-Fencing For European Cross-Border Banks

    This paper presents a stylized analysis of the effects of ring-fencing (i.e., different restrictions on cross-border transfers of excess profits and/or capital between a parent bank and its subsidiaries located in different jurisdictions) on cross-border banks. Using a sample of 25 large European banking groups with subsidiaries in Central, Eastern...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2010

    A Historical Public Debt Database

    This paper describes the compilation of the first truly comprehensive database on gross government debt-to-GDP ratios, covering nearly the entire IMF membership (174 countries) and spanning an exceptionally long time period. The database was constructed by bringing together a number of other datasets and information from original sources. For the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    After The Crisis: Assessing The Damage In Italy

    Italy's deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these long-standing weaknesses, taking a heavy toll on Italy's economy. With output back to its end- 2001 level, Italy's output losses associated with the crisis...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2010

    Monetary And Fiscal Policy Interactions In The Post-war U.S.

    A New Keynesian model allowing for an Active Monetary and Passive Fiscal policy (AMPF) regime and a Passive Monetary and Active Fiscal policy (PMAF) regime is fit to various U.S. samples from 1955 to 2007. Data in the pre-Volcker periods strongly prefer an AMPF regime, but the estimation is not...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Crisis And Recovery: Role Of The Exchange Rate Regime In Emerging Market Countries

    This paper examines the role of the exchange rate regime in explaining how emerging market economies fared in the recent global financial crisis, particularly in terms of output losses and growth resilience. After controlling for regime switches during the crisis, using alternative definitions for pegs, and taking account of other...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jul 2010

    Improving The Equity And Revenue Productivity Of The Icelandic Tax System

    The Icelandic authorities have launched a review of the tax system with a view to improving its income redistribution, growth orientation, and efficiency features, as well as increasing its revenue mobilization potential by 1-2 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the medium term. The increased tax collections would...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2010

    Forecasting U.S. Investment

    This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the authors and are published...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Bank Lending In Turkey: Effects Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies

    This paper analyzes the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on Turkish banks' lending activities in the post-crisis period. In particular, the authors show that changes in monetary policy have affected credit growth through their impact on the cost of external funds and liquidity constraints. In addition, following the shift...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2010

    Transition Economies: How Appropriate Is The Size And Scope Of Government?

    This paper assesses changes in the size and scope of government in 24 transition economies. Whereas these governments have retrenched in terms of public expenditures in relation to GDP, as well as public employment as a share of population, some indicators suggest that size remains high (e.g.. rising indebtedness, a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Fiscal Expectations Under The Stability And Growth Pact: Evidence From Survey Data

    The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The authors' findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    New Indicators For Tracking Growth In Real Time

    The authors develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. They test the historical performance of the indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, they find that the indicators generally produce good GDP...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Did Export Diversification Soften The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis?

    This paper considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three different dimensions of specialization. First, concentration by geographic destination is considered; that is, whether the bulk of exports from a country...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Toward Inflation Targeting In Sri Lanka

    This paper develops a practical model-based Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good forecast for inflation and a framework to evaluate policy trade-offs. The model simulations suggest that an open-economy inflation...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Evidence On Productivity, Comparative Advantage, And Networks In The Export Performance Of Firms

    This paper tests the effect of comparative advantage, size, and networking on the firm probability of exporting. The closest theoretical framework is the one of Bernard, Redding, and Schott (2007), with firm heterogeneity across countries and industries. The authors use a recently assembled multi-country multi-industry firm level dataset, and construct...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    ICT, Financial Inclusion, And Growth: Evidence From African Countries

    This paper studies the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), especially mobile phone rollout, on economic growth in a sample of African countries from 1988 to 2007. Further, the authors investigate whether financial inclusion is one of the channels through which mobile phone development influences economic growth. In estimating...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Reconsidering The Role Of Food Prices In Inflation

    Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Modeling Inflation In Chad

    This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Impact Of The Global Crisis On Banking Sector Soundness In Asian Low-Income Countries

    The paper takes stock of the impact of the global financial crisis that began in late 2007 on banking sectors of Asian low-income countries, by exploring bank-level data provided by Bankscope. The paper examines three key channels of possible crisis spillovers: exposures to valuation changes of mark-to-market financial assets, a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2010

    Lifting Euro Area Growth: Priorities For Structural Reforms And Governance

    To live up to its growth potential and secure its inclusive social model, the euro area must make better use of its available labor. In the aftermath of the crisis, boosting growth is essential to prevent unemployment from becoming a long-term problem and to facilitate the return to fiscal sustainability....

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2009

    Optimal Policy With Occasionally Binding Credit Constraints

    The authors study optimal policy in a small-open economy in which a foreign borrowing constraint binds occasionally. In the model that they set up scope for policy arises because of the pecuniary externality stemming from the presence of a key relative price in the borrowing constraint. The objective of the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    The Role Of Monetary Policy In Turkey During The Global Financial Crisis

    Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Precautionary Savings And Global Imbalances In World General Equilibrium

    In this paper, the authors assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of the world. These areas are assumed to differ only with respect to GDP volatility which...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2011

    Sectoral Composition Of Foreign Direct Investment And External Vulnerability In Eastern Europe

    In the run up to the global crisis, countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe attracted large capital inflows and some of them built up large external imbalances. This paper investigates whether these imbalances are linked to the sectoral composition of FDI. It shows that FDI in the tradable sectors...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Lessons From The Financial Crisis On Modelling Systemic And Sovereign Risk

    The complex interactions, spillovers and feedbacks of the global crisis that began in 2007 remind us how important it is to improve the authors' analyzes and modelling of financial crises and sovereign risk. This paper provides a broad framework to examine how vulnerabilities can build up and suddenly erupt in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2003

    Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration

    The paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country co-movement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest there have been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical co-movement among industrialized countries over...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2003

    The United States and the New Regionalism/ Bilateralism

    Current U.S. trade policy stresses establishing free trade areas (FTAs) with partners spanning the globe. Motivations include enhancing goods and services trade; stimulating investment flows; extending standards on intellectual property rights, labor, and the environment; and addressing geopolitical concerns. Simulations of FTAs with the United States highlight the importance of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2003

    Promoting Fiscal Transparency: The Complementary Roles of the IMF, Financial Markets and Civil Society

    This paper explores initiatives to date by the IMF, financial markets, and civil society organizations to assess and utilize information on fiscal transparency. The results of surveys and interviews of rating agency analysts and surveys of civil society organizations on their level of awareness of, and use of IMF fiscal...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Oct 2003

    The U.S. Dollar And The Trade Deficit: What Accounts For The Late 1990s?

    Based on a version of the IMF?s new Global Economic Model (GEM), calibrated to analyze macroeconomic interdependence between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent an asymmetric productivity shock in the tradable sector of the economy may account for real exchange rate...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jul 2000

    Large-Scale Post-Crisis Corporate Sector Restructuring

    This article summarizes the objectives, tasks, and modalities of large scale, post crisis corporate restructuring with a view to organize the policy choices and drawing some general conclusions. This article suggests that government-led restructuring efforts should integrate corporate and bank restructuring in a holistic and transparent strategy based on clearly...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2000

    How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts--Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts Of Output Growth

    This article evaluates the performance of consensus forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries. The question this article tries to address is how do forecasts errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? are forecasts efficient and biased? In this two key result, emerge. First, the record of failure...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2003

    The Choice Of Exchange Rate Regime And Monetary Target In Highly Dollarized Economies

    This paper examines the implications of high degrees of dollarization for the choice of exchange rate regime and the information content of various monetary aggregates in developing countries. It concludes that high degree of currency substitution argues for more fixed exchange rate regimes, may be appropriate. It is also determined...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2001

    Import-Reducing Effect of Trade Barriers: A Cross-Country Investigation

    A comprehension empirical investigation is carried out to ascertain the import-reducing effect of trade protection barriers. This paper first presents a statistical summary of the status of global trade protection. Then, based on a monopolistic competition trade model and 1994 cross-country data on trade on trade barriers, trade flows and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Jul 2003

    The Role of Information In Driving FDI Flows: Host-Country Transparency And Source-Country Specialization

    This paper discusses a simple information-based model of FDI flows. On the one hand, the abundance of "intangible" capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country corporate-transparency diminishes the value...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2004

    Bank Consolidation and Performance

    This paper examines a large panel of more than 100 banks to study the effects of bank consolidation on performance. Overall it finds a positive and significant effect of bank consolidation on bank performance. Bank returns increase with consolidation, and insolvency risk is reduced. Additionally, the study suggests that mergers...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Sep 2003

    International Versus Domestic Auditing of Bank Solvency

    This paper examines alternative ways to prevent losses from bank insolvencies. It is widely viewed that transparency in reporting bank balance sheets is a key element in reducing such losses. It is, however, unclear just how such transparency would be achieved. Current approaches to avoiding insolvencies generally involve international enforcement...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2005

    Trade Costs and Location of Foreign Firms in China

    This study examines the determinants of entry into by foreign firms, using information on 515 Chinese industries at the provincial level during 1998-2001. The analysis, rooted in the new economic geography, focuses on market and supplier access within and outside the province of entry, as well as production and trade...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2005

    Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries

    Under normal circumstances, a central bank should be able to operate at a profit with a core level of earnings derived from seigniorage. The paper discusses the impact of losses on central bank operations and lays out the principles and practices for handling central bank losses. It is suggested that...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Aug 2005

    Access to Bank Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Issues and Reform Strategies

    This study discusses issues of access to bank credit in Sub-Saharan Africa, and examines measures that could help facilitate access by the private sector to bank credit. It reviews in particular obstacles to credit small- and medium-scale enterprises and agriculture, and examines progress in the design and implementation of reform...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Fiscal Objectives In The Post IMF Program World: The Case Of Albania

    The paper discusses the challenges facing Albania's fiscal policy following the graduation from the IMF programs. It argues that Albania's public debt remains too high and needs to be reduced. Strengthening the fiscal framework, including by introducing a numerical fiscal rule, could help achieve this objective. This paper discusses two...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund