International Monetary Fund

Displaying 321-360 of 679 results

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Growth And Structural Reforms: A New Assessment

    This paper presents a simultaneous assessment of the relationship between economic performance and three groups of economic reforms: domestic finance, trade, and the capital account. Among these, domestic financial reforms, and trade reforms, are robustly associated with economic growth, but only in middle-income countries. In contrast, the author does not...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Trade And Thy Neighbor's War

    This paper examines the spatial dispersion effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. The empirical findings - based on different measures of conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and conflict - reveal a significant collateral damage in terms of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Lost Decade In Translation: What Japan's Crisis Could Portend About Recovery From The Great Recession

    Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan's growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan's experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies For Oil Exporting Countries

    Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "Excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences In The Output Impact

    The author provides one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, the author finds that a small set of variables explain...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Elasticity Optimism

    In most macroeconomic models, the substitutability between domestic and foreign goods is calibrated using aggregated data. This imposes homogeneous elasticities across goods, and the calibration is only valid under this assumption. If elasticities are heterogeneous, the aggregate substitutability is a weighted average of good-specific elasticities, which in general cannot be...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The General Data Dissemination System (GDDS)-A Reflection On Its First 12 Years And Plans For Taking It Forward

    The paper reviews the developments in the last 12 years that have influenced the evolution of the IMF's General Data Dissemination System, leading to reforms to enhance its role. The GDDS itself is part of a broader IMF Data Standards Initiative launched in 1996 to help address macroeconomic data deficiencies,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    How Russia Affects The Neighborhood: Trade, Financial, And Remittance Channels

    The author tests the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Accounting For Global Dispersion Of Current Accounts

    This paper undertakes a quantitative analysis of the dispersion of current accounts in an open economy version of incomplete insurance model, incorporating important market frictions in trade and financial flows. Calibrated with conventional parameter values, the stochastic stationary equilibrium of the model with limited borrowing can account for about two-thirds...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The Valuation Channel Of External Adjustment

    International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country's net foreign asset position through the valuation channel, namely capital gains and losses on external assets and liabilities. The author examines this valuation channel in a dynamic equilibrium portfolio model with international trade in equity. By separating...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Cyclical Patterns Of Government Expenditures In Sub-Saharan Africa: Facts And Factors

    This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Being A Foreigner Among Domestic Banks: Asset Or Liability?

    Studying a large number of banks in various countries between 1999 and 2006, the author documents that foreign banks perform better when from a high income country, when host country competition is limited, and when they are large and rely more on deposits for funding. Foreign banks' performance improves over...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Who Disciplines Bank Managers?

    This paper brings to bear a hand-collected dataset of executive turnovers in U.S. banks to test the efficacy of market discipline in a 'Laboratory setting' by analyzing banks that are less likely to be subject to government support. Specifically, the author focuses on a new face of market discipline: stakeholders'...

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  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The Hedonic Country Product Dummy Method And Quality Adjustments For Purchasing Power Parity Calculations

    The 2005 International Comparison Program's (ICP) estimates of economy-wide purchasing power parity (PPP) are based on parity estimates for 155 basic expenditure headings, mainly estimated using country product dummy (CPD) regressions. The estimates are potentially inefficient and open to omitted variable bias for two reasons. First, they use average prices...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Foreign Bank Entry And Credit Allocation In Emerging Markets

    This paper employees a unique data set containing bank-specific information to explore how foreign bank entry determines credit allocation in emerging markets. The author investigates the impact of the mode of foreign entry (greenfield or takeover) on banks' portfolio allocation to borrowers with different degrees of informational transparency, as well...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    A Framework To Assess The Effectiveness Of IMF Technical Assistance In National Accounts

    This paper analyzes the effectiveness of technical assistance provided by AFRITAC West (AFW) in the area of national accounts using the Fund's Technical Assistance Information Management System (TAIMS). The challenge has been to report on "Ultimate outcomes" (i.e., the production and dissemination of national accounts statistics along best international practices)...

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  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Growth Determinants Revisited

    This paper revisits the cross-country growth empirics debate using a novel Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging framework to address model uncertainty in the context of a dynamic growth model in panel data with endogenous regressors. The empirical findings suggest that once model uncertainty is accounted for there is strong evidence...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Oil Rents, Corruption, And State Stability: Evidence From Panel Data Regressions

    This paper examines the effects of oil rents on corruption and state stability exploiting the exogenous within-country variation of a new measure of oil rents for a panel of 31 oil-exporting countries during the period 1992 to 2005. The author finds that an increase in oil rents significantly increases corruption,...

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  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs In Emerging Markets?

    Using data on syndicated loan issuances by emerging market firms, the author finds that an increase in the external debt of emerging market governments significantly raises the borrowing costs of the domestic corporate sector. This finding suggests that a higher level of public external debt "Crowds out" foreign credit to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Emerging Economy Responses To The Global Financial Crisis Of 2007-09: An Empirical Analysis Of The Liquidity Easing Measures

    This paper draws on a unique data set on the nontraditional systemic liquidity easing measures recently undertaken by many emerging market economies. It offers an empirical analysis of the key determinants affecting the decision to undertake these measures over the period September 2008 - March 2009. The paper finds that...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Investment-Specific Productivity Growth: Chile In A Global Perspective

    By the end of 2007, Chile's total factor productivity was lower than ten years earlier, a performance that contrasted sharply with the previous decade, when productivity grew by a cumulative 30 percent. This paper assesses productivity trends in Chile, by decomposing productivity into investment-specific technological change (associated with improvements in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Inflation Targeting Pillars: Transparency And Accountability

    There are two key factors behind the move to increased transparency on the part of central banks. First is the relationship between transparency and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The second is the link between transparency and accountability. The way in which monetary policy is conducted by central banks has...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    Systemic Liquidity Management In The U.A.E.: Issues And Options

    This paper analyzes the U.A.E.'s liquidity management framework in the context of the 2008 global financial crisis and the measures taken by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. to ease liquidity pressures in the second half of 2008. Drawing also on an empirical analysis of data for 15 U.A.E. banks...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Dec 2009

    The Housing Cycle In Emerging Middle Eastern Economies And Its Macroeconomic Policy Implications

    This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Financial Sector Surveillance And The IMF

    The global financial crisis has magnified the role of Financial Sector Surveillance (FSS) in the Fund's activities. This paper surveys the various steps and initiatives through which the Fund has increasingly deepened its involvement in FSS. Overall, this process can be characterized by a preliminary stage and two main phases....

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Governance And Fund Management In The Chinese Pension System

    Governance of pension fund management is important as it impacts investment performance and critically determines the success of policies aimed at pre-funding pension liabilities. Internationally accepted standards of governance and fund management have been established by several international organizations and standard setters. These include the International Social Security Association (ISSA),...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    What's The Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises

    This paper investigates the medium-term behavior of output following banking crises, and its association with pre- and post-crisis conditions and policies. The author finds that output tends to be depressed substantially following banking crises, with no rebound to the precrisis trend. However, growth does eventually tend to return to its...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    A Rule-Based Medium-Term Fiscal Policy Framework For Tanzania

    A zero net domestic financing (NDF) target has served Tanzania well in recent years, contributing to prudent expenditure policy, improved fiscal sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. Moving to a more flexible fiscal policy, however, may serve Tanzania better. The "Diamond rule" proposed in this paper incorporates a permanent hard ceiling on...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Top-Down Budgeting - An Instrument To Strengthen Budget Management

    This paper examines the rationale for a top-down approach to budget preparation and approval, and discusses some factors that have to be considered when reorienting the budget process along these lines. The paper argues that the sequence in which budgetary decisions are taken matters, and that a strong top-down approach...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Valuation Of Unlisted Direct Investment Equity

    This paper analyzes the seven valuation methods for unlisted direct investment equity included in the recently adopted IMF Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6). Based on publicly available Danish data, the author tested the three methods that are generally applicable and find that the choice...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    The Role Of Financial Variables In Predicting Economic Activity In The Euro Area

    The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. The author investigates whether financial variables carry additional information and uses vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Treating Intangible Inputs As Investment Goods: The Impact On Canadian GDP

    This paper constructs a data set to document firms' expenditures on an identifiable list of intangible items and examines the implications of treating intangible spending as an acquisition of final (investment) goods on GDP growth for Canada. It finds that investment in intangible capital by 2002 is almost as large...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Estimating Demand For IMF Financing By Low-Income Countries In Response To Shocks

    This paper estimates factors affecting demand for Fund financing by Low-Income Countries (LICs) in response to policy and exogenous shocks. Various economic variables, including reserve coverage, current account balance to GDP, real GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, and terms of trade shocks are found to be significant determinants of Fund financing....

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Improving Surveillance Across The CEMAC Region

    This paper considers the design of the surveillance, and, in particular, the fiscal criteria in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) with the view to ensuring they are consistent with internal and external sustainability. This consistency is important within a monetary union because fiscal policy is the primary...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    From Lombard Street To Avenida Paulista: Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing In Brazil In Response To The Global Shock Of 2008-09

    The provision of foreign exchange liquidity by emerging market central banks during the global shock of 2008 - 09 departs from the domestic liquidity lender of last resort role described by Bagehot in his classic "Lombard Street." This paper documents and analyzes the foreign exchange liquidity providing measures of the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Institutional Factors And Financial Sector Development: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa

    The paper assesses the effects of certain institutional factors on financial sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to determine the extent to which these institutions affect the financial sector, and to suggest which institutions play a more critical role in each country. Results suggest...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Countercyclical Macro Prudential Policies In A Supporting Role To Monetary Policy

    This paper explores how prudential regulations can support monetary policy in reducing output fluctuations while maintaining financial stability. It uses a new framework that blends a standard model for monetary policy analysis with a contingent claims model of financial sector vulnerabilities. The results suggest that binding countercyclical prudential regulations can...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Macroeconomic Implications For Hong Kong SAR Of Accommodative U.S. Monetary Policy

    This paper discusses the potential macroeconomic implications for Hong Kong SAR of accommodative monetary policy in the United States. It shows, through model simulations, that a resumption of the credit channel in Hong Kong SAR has the potential to create inflation in both goods and asset markets. Expansionary financial conditions...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Fiscal Stimulus To The Rescue? Short-Run Benefits And Potential Long-Run Costs Of Fiscal Deficits

    This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to compute short-run multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Credit Derivatives: Systemic Risks And Policy Options?

    Credit derivative markets are largely unregulated, but calls are increasingly being made for changes to this "Hands off" stance, amidst concerns that they helped to fuel the current financial crisis, or that they could be a cause of the next one. The purpose of this paper is to address two...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Cross-Border Financial Surveillance: A Network Perspective

    Effective cross-border financial surveillance requires the monitoring of direct and indirect systemic linkages. This paper illustrates how network analysis could make a significant contribution in this regard by simulating different credit and funding shocks to the banking systems of a number of selected countries. After that, the author shows that...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    House Price Determinants In Selected Countries Of The Former Soviet Union

    This paper analyses the recent boom-bust cycle in the housing markets of selected Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries. The analysis is based on a newly constructed database on house prices in the FSU countries. The estimations suggest that house price developments can largely be explained by the dynamics of fundamentals,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The Structural Manifestation Of The 'Dutch Disease': The Case Of Oil Exporting Countries

    The Dutch disease is the process by which a boom in a natural resource sector results in shrinking non-resource tradables. This process leads to increased specialization in the resource and non-tradable sectors leaving the economy more vulnerable to resource-specific shocks. This paper illustrates a theoretical model to examine the Dutch...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The Global Credit Crunch And Foreign Banks' Lending To Emerging Markets: Why Did Latin America Fare Better?

    The recent global financial turmoil raised questions about the stability of foreign banks' financing to emerging market countries. While foreign banks' lending growth to most emerging market regions contracted sharply, lending to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was significantly more resilient. Analyzing detailed BIS data on global banks' lending...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Development Accounting And The Rise Of TFP

    This paper presents evidence that the contribution of differences in total factor productivity (TFP) to income differences across countries steadily increased between 1970 and 2000. The author verifies that the finding is neither imputable to measurement errors in input factors nor dependent on the assumption of factor neutral differences in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Crisis Management And Resolution For A European Banking System

    This paper proposes an integrated crisis management and resolution framework for the EU's single banking market. It comprises a European Resolution Authority (ERA), armed with the mandate and the tools to deal cost-effectively with failing systemic cross-border banks, and is designed to address many fundamental operational and incentive problems. It...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Public Expenditures On Social Programs And Household Consumption In China

    This paper shows that increasing government social expenditures can make a substantive contribution to increasing household consumption in China. The paper first undertakes an empirical study of the relationship between the savings rate and social expenditures for a panel of OECD countries and provides illustrative estimates of their implications for...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    The Cyclicality Of Fiscal Policy In The Middle East And Central Asia: Is The Current Crisis Different?

    The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the region during the...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Competition And Firm Productivity: Evidence From Firm-Level Data

    This paper presents empirical evidence on the impact of competition on firm productivity. Using firm-level observations from the World Bank Enterprise Survey database, the author finds a positive and robust causal relationship between the proxies for competition and the measures of productivity, it's also found that countries that implemented product-market...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    ICT Equipment Investment And Growth In Low- And Lower-Middle-Income Countries

    While production of ICT equipment plays a subordinate role for economic growth in most of these countries, they do benefit from capital deepening arising from falling prices of ICT equipment. Adapting established growth accounting approaches to the data environment of low-income countries, the author quantifies the growth impacts of absorption...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    The Short-Run Macroeconomics Of Aid Inflows: Understanding The Interaction Of Fiscal And Reserve Policy

    The author develops a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. The author distinguishes between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid - using the aid to finance a higher current account...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Cross-Country Consumption Risk Sharing, A Long-Run Perspective

    This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing across a sample of OECD and emerging market (EM) countries. This is in contrast to the existing literature on consumption risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business cycle frequency. Since the methodology focuses...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Financial Liberalization, Structural Change, And Real Exchange Rate Appreciations

    This paper accounts for the appreciation of the real exchange rate in Mexico between 1988 and 2002 using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with two driving forces: (i) differential productivity growth across sectors and (ii) a decline in the cost of borrowing in...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: Reading The Tea Leaves

    The author shows that fiscal policies reflecting a primary balance response to higher debt in line with historic experience would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the debt targets of the U.S. administration in the medium term. Deficits and debt are higher under current budgetary proposals and IMF projections for...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Oman: Banking Sector Resilience

    This paper assesses the impact of the global financial risks on Oman's banking system and highlights the remaining risks. It concludes that the liquidity and prudential measures introduced by the authorities mitigated the adverse effects of the crisis on the banking system. Banks continue to make profits despite higher provisioning....

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    The Influence Of "Big Brothers:" How Important Are Regional Factors For Uruguay?

    This paper examines the role played by regional factors in Uruguay, identifies the sources and transmission mechanisms of shocks stemming from the region, and assesses how vulnerable Uruguay is to a potential crisis in the region. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that shocks from Argentina...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Caribbean Bananas: The Macroeconomic Impact Of Trade Preference Erosion

    This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of the erosion of trade preferences, with a focus on the export of Caribbean bananas to Europe. Estimates are made of the magnitude of implicit assistance provided over a period of three decades to eastern Caribbean countries through banana trade preferences. The value of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    The Real Exchange Rate And Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?

    There is good reason and much evidence to suggest that the real exchange rate matters for economic growth, but why? The "Washington Consensus" (WC) view holds that real exchange rate misalignment implies macroeconomic imbalances that are themselves bad for growth. In contrast, Rodrik (2008) argues that undervaluation relative to purchasing...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Asset Booms And Structural Fiscal Positions: The Case Of Ireland

    Asset booms and sectoral changes can distort traditional estimates of structural fiscal revenue, and could lead to serious fiscal policy errors. This paper extends the estimation of structural revenues to take account of asset prices and sectoral changes, and applies this to the case of Ireland, where a property bust...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Structural Models In Real Time

    Informed monitoring, using judgment, can outperform short-term forecasts of structural models. And since announcements, special factors and the uncertain timing of some events-for example, the bursting of an evident market bubble - have important sporadic effects, there will always be a role for judgment in forecasting. A common practice at...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    FX Swaps: Implications For Financial And Economic Stability

    The proliferation of foreign exchange (FX) swaps as a source of funding and as a hedging tool has focused attention on the role of the FX swap market in the recent crisis. The turbulence in international money markets spilled over into the FX swap market in the second-half of 2007...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Precautionary Reserves: An Application To Bolivia

    Using precautionary savings models the author computes levels of optimal reserves for Bolivia. Because of Bolivia's reliance on commodity exports and little integration with capital markets, and focuses on current account shocks as the key balance of payments risk. These models generate an optimal level of net foreign assets ranging...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, And External Debt

    This paper examines the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. The main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies,...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Simulating Inflation Forecasting In Real-Time: How Useful Is A Simple Phillips Curve In Germany, The UK, And The US?

    This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, the author uses output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Feb 2010

    Yield Curve Dynamics And Spillovers In Central And Eastern European Countries

    This paper applies the models used to study yield curve dynamics and spillovers in the U.S. and other countries to Central and Eastern European countries (CEE countries). Using the Diebold, Rudebusch, and Aruoba (2006) dynamic version of the Nelson-Siegel representation of the yield curve, the paper finds that the two-way...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Budget Institutions And Fiscal Performance In Low-Income Countries

    This paper presents, for the first time, multi-dimensional indices of the quality of budget institutions in low-income countries. The indices allow for benchmarking against the performance of middle-income countries, across regions, and according to different institutional arrangements that deliver good fiscal performance. Using the constructed indices, the paper provides preliminary...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Fiscal Adjustment In Sudan: Size, Speed And Composition

    This paper aims to identify the optimal size, speed and composition of the medium-term fiscal adjustment in the context of Sudan's limited oil reserves. The permanently sustainable non-oil primary balance approach suggests the need for significant fiscal adjustment over the medium term, requiring a widening of the tax base. Cross-country...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Spillovers Of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract The "Great Moderation"?

    Even prior to the extreme volatility just observed, output growth volatility - following protracted decline - was flattening or mildly rising in some countries. More widespread was an increasing tendency from the mid-1990s for shocks in one country to transmit rapidly to other countries, creating the potential for heightened global...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Fiscal Objectives In The Post IMF Program World: The Case Of Albania

    The paper discusses the challenges facing Albania's fiscal policy following the graduation from the IMF programs. It argues that Albania's public debt remains too high and needs to be reduced. Strengthening the fiscal framework, including by introducing a numerical fiscal rule, could help achieve this objective. This paper discusses two...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus - A Smooth Transition Model

    Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007 - 08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960 - 2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. The author uses a smooth transition model to...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Economic Transition And Health Care Reform: The Experience Of Europe And Central Asia

    This paper exploits the staggered adoption of major concurrent health reforms in countries in Europe and Central Asia after 1990 to estimate their impact on public health expenditure, utilization, and avoidable deaths. While the health systems all derived from the same paradigm under central planning, they have since introduced changes...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Asset Securitization And Optimal Retention

    This paper builds on recent research by Fender and Mitchell (2009) who show that if financial institutions securitize loans, retaining an interest in the equity tranche does not always induce the securitizer to diligently screen borrowers ex ante. The author first determines the conditions under which this scenario becomes binding...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Effects Of Fiscal Stimulus In Structural Models

    The question of whether temporary fiscal stimulus can effectively stimulate aggregate demand has become the subject of a lively debate that is critical for future policy decisions. Empirical studies can provide some guidance, but their estimates are very dispersed, and they have difficulties identifying key issues including the interaction between...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    A Public Financial Management Framework For Resources-Producing Countries

    This paper overviews the challenges posed by resource revenues management and the policy prescriptions to meet them, and focuses on the Public Financial Management (PFM) framework and reforms that resource-producing countries should adopt. The paper outlines a PFM framework and reform path that take into account the institutional diversity of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // Mar 2010

    Tax Revenue Response To The Business Cycle

    This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. The author finds a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies. The author also finds...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2010

    The Credit Boom In The EU New Member States: Bad Luck Or Bad Policies?

    In the past decade, most of the EU New Member States experienced a severe credit-boom bust cycle. This paper argues that the credit boom-bust cycle was to a large extent the result of factors external to the region ("bad luck"). Rapid credit growth followed from a high liquidity in global...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2010

    What Explains The Rise In Food Price Volatility?

    The macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatility - i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest year -...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2010

    The Potential Contribution Of Fiscal Policy To Rebalancing And Growth In New Zealand

    New Zealand's key policy challenge is to rebalance the economy and reduce external vulnerabilities. The country has weathered the global financial crises relatively well but faces a number of challenges. Persistent current account deficits have increased net foreign liabilities to 90 percent of GDP, which presents a major macro-economic and...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2010

    Potential Growth Of Australia And New Zealand In The Aftermath of The Global Crisis

    Using a production function method, this paper assesses the impact of the global crisis on the potential growth of Australia and New Zealand. The two countries have not been hit hard by the global crisis, but have large net external liabilities. The paper finds that the main negative impact of...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund

  • White Papers // May 2010

    Mining Taxation: An Application To Mali

    Given the predominance of the fiscal transmission channel, it is important that the design of the mineral tax regime gives the state a fair share of the benefits. Using optimal control theory, this paper estimates that the optimal royalty tax in Mali is about 3.5 percent. By reducing the royalty...

    Provided By International Monetary Fund