Magyar Nemzeti Bank

Displaying 1-12 of 12 results

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    MPM - The Magyar Nemzeti Bank's Monetary Policy Model

    March 2011 marked the introduction of the MNB's Monetary Policy Model (MPM), representing a paradigm shift in both inflation forecasting and monetary policy decision support. In contrast to the previous conditional projections, the MPM offers an endogenous definition for both the policy rate and the exchange rate. Given the forward-looking...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Household Inflation Expectations And Inflation Dynamics

    Although in modern monetary economics it is usually assumed that inflation expectations play a prominent role when economic agents set prices and wages, the empirical evidence for this link is scarce. This paper aims to identify the effect of changes in inflation expectations on prices and wages in a SVAR...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Driving Factors Of Growth In Hungary - A Decomposition Exercise

    Applications tend to ignore that measured TFP reflects the variation of output that cannot be explained by changes in inputs. Such a change is not necessarily technological, so measured TFP differences across firms are an amalgam of technological, efficiency and other differences in attributes, which calls for further refinement in...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Aug 2010

    Optimality Criteria Of Hybrid Inflation-Price Level Targeting

    This paper provides a sensitivity analysis of the relative performance of inflation targeting, price level targeting, and hybrid targeting, the combination of these two. A simple, three-period, steady state to steady state economy is presented, where monetary policy is facing various sets of forward and backward looking expectations, social preferences...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Jun 2010

    Trade Policy: Home Market Effect Versus Terms Of Trade Externality

    The authors study trade policy in a two-sector Krugman-type trade model with home market effects. They conduct a general analysis allowing for three different instruments: tariffs, export taxes and production subsidies. For each instrument, they consider unilateral trade policy without retaliation. When carefully disentangling the different effects that determine policy...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The Role of Financial Market Structure And The Trade Elasticity For Monetary Policy In Open Economies

    The degree of international risk sharing matters for how monetary policy should optimally be conducted in an open economy. This is because risk sharing affects the way in which monetary policy is affected by terms of trade considerations. In a standard two-country model with monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities the...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules And Welfare In A DSGE Model For Hungary

    The authors explore the properties of welfare-maximizing monetary policy in a medium-scale DSGE model for Hungary. In order to make the results operational from a policymaker's perspective, they approximate the optimal policy rule with a set of simple rules reacting only to observable variables. The results suggest that "Science of...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Inflation Asymmetry, Menu Costs And Aggregation Bias - A Further Case For State Dependent Pricing

    The paper shows, furthermore, that while a standard menu cost model like that of Golosov and Lucas (2007) underestimates the observed asymmetry, a model of multi-product firms that takes sectoral heterogeneity explicitly into consideration can quantitatively account for the inflation asymmetry observed in the data. This aggregation bias of the...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In The Czech Republic, Hungary And Poland

    This paper investigates the role of monetary policy in a small open economy, where exchange rate shocks are important. VAR models are estimated for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Contemporaneous and sign restrictions are imposed in order to identify the effect of monetary policy and risk premium shocks. Estimates...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Sep 2009

    Export Structure And Export Specialisation In Central And Eastern European Countries

    Before the millennium Hungary's market share in exports of goods was increasing at the fastest rate in Central and Eastern Europe; however, after 2000 that growth became the lowest. The slowdown in growth in Hungary's export market share is mainly due to the stagnating price index of goods exports. The...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    Exchange Rate Exposure Of Hungarian Enterprises - Results Of A Survey

    In this paper, the author examines the exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises from a financial stability perspective. In connection with the recent growth in FX loans to enterprises, the central bank assesses the vulnerability of the banks' loan portfolio to changes in the exchange rate. To collect company-level data,...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // May 2006

    Is There A Bank Lending Channel In Hungary? Evidence From Bank Panel Data

    In this paper the authors analyze the bank lending channel in Hungary. They provide a brief overview of the theory and the empirical approaches used to investigate the existence of bank lending channel. From the possible methods they use the generally applied approach suggested by Kahsyap and Stein (1995) which...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The Role of Financial Market Structure And The Trade Elasticity For Monetary Policy In Open Economies

    The degree of international risk sharing matters for how monetary policy should optimally be conducted in an open economy. This is because risk sharing affects the way in which monetary policy is affected by terms of trade considerations. In a standard two-country model with monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities the...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Jun 2010

    Trade Policy: Home Market Effect Versus Terms Of Trade Externality

    The authors study trade policy in a two-sector Krugman-type trade model with home market effects. They conduct a general analysis allowing for three different instruments: tariffs, export taxes and production subsidies. For each instrument, they consider unilateral trade policy without retaliation. When carefully disentangling the different effects that determine policy...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    Exchange Rate Exposure Of Hungarian Enterprises - Results Of A Survey

    In this paper, the author examines the exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises from a financial stability perspective. In connection with the recent growth in FX loans to enterprises, the central bank assesses the vulnerability of the banks' loan portfolio to changes in the exchange rate. To collect company-level data,...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Dec 2010

    Household Inflation Expectations And Inflation Dynamics

    Although in modern monetary economics it is usually assumed that inflation expectations play a prominent role when economic agents set prices and wages, the empirical evidence for this link is scarce. This paper aims to identify the effect of changes in inflation expectations on prices and wages in a SVAR...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Driving Factors Of Growth In Hungary - A Decomposition Exercise

    Applications tend to ignore that measured TFP reflects the variation of output that cannot be explained by changes in inputs. Such a change is not necessarily technological, so measured TFP differences across firms are an amalgam of technological, efficiency and other differences in attributes, which calls for further refinement in...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    MPM - The Magyar Nemzeti Bank's Monetary Policy Model

    March 2011 marked the introduction of the MNB's Monetary Policy Model (MPM), representing a paradigm shift in both inflation forecasting and monetary policy decision support. In contrast to the previous conditional projections, the MPM offers an endogenous definition for both the policy rate and the exchange rate. Given the forward-looking...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules And Welfare In A DSGE Model For Hungary

    The authors explore the properties of welfare-maximizing monetary policy in a medium-scale DSGE model for Hungary. In order to make the results operational from a policymaker's perspective, they approximate the optimal policy rule with a set of simple rules reacting only to observable variables. The results suggest that "Science of...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In The Czech Republic, Hungary And Poland

    This paper investigates the role of monetary policy in a small open economy, where exchange rate shocks are important. VAR models are estimated for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Contemporaneous and sign restrictions are imposed in order to identify the effect of monetary policy and risk premium shocks. Estimates...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Inflation Asymmetry, Menu Costs And Aggregation Bias - A Further Case For State Dependent Pricing

    The paper shows, furthermore, that while a standard menu cost model like that of Golosov and Lucas (2007) underestimates the observed asymmetry, a model of multi-product firms that takes sectoral heterogeneity explicitly into consideration can quantitatively account for the inflation asymmetry observed in the data. This aggregation bias of the...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // May 2006

    Is There A Bank Lending Channel In Hungary? Evidence From Bank Panel Data

    In this paper the authors analyze the bank lending channel in Hungary. They provide a brief overview of the theory and the empirical approaches used to investigate the existence of bank lending channel. From the possible methods they use the generally applied approach suggested by Kahsyap and Stein (1995) which...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Aug 2010

    Optimality Criteria Of Hybrid Inflation-Price Level Targeting

    This paper provides a sensitivity analysis of the relative performance of inflation targeting, price level targeting, and hybrid targeting, the combination of these two. A simple, three-period, steady state to steady state economy is presented, where monetary policy is facing various sets of forward and backward looking expectations, social preferences...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank

  • White Papers // Sep 2009

    Export Structure And Export Specialisation In Central And Eastern European Countries

    Before the millennium Hungary's market share in exports of goods was increasing at the fastest rate in Central and Eastern Europe; however, after 2000 that growth became the lowest. The slowdown in growth in Hungary's export market share is mainly due to the stagnating price index of goods exports. The...

    Provided By Magyar Nemzeti Bank